This poem is dedicated to anyone making a start on their advent calendar today.

anyway, what i want to know is: What does the head of the OBR's uncle think?

Fantastic to join Neil Duncan-Jordan for an MP briefing this eve, alongside @redjen.bsky.social & @pscupdates.bsky.social. We discussed progressive proposals to strengthen the Gov’s Pension Schemes Bill, incl. phasing out fossil fuel investments and ensuring worker representation.

One thing this disclosure illustrates, once again, is the volatility of these forecasts. There's a swing of nearly £7bn, *within October* on the current budget forecast. Lifting the two-child cap cost about £3bn. That could have been wiped out twice purely by the timing of the budget.

serious question: has any other chancellor had this treatment? Did we hear from Kwasi Kwarteng's aunty? Jeremy Hunt's nephew?

Fewer workers. Fewer international students. More people leaving. A "step in the right direction" according to the PM. Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

An MP in Zimbabwe has called for the repeal of the country's "backwards" 1977 abortion law. He argued that safe abortion should be available to a wider range of Zimbabwean women, as it is currently restricted to a privileged few. Each year, 60,000 women die due to unsafe abortion.

I'm constantly shocked (but not surprised) by how little we discuss the additional financial burden placed on young people by the Clegg-Cameron student loan regime. @rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇

If you want some good news this morning, I showed my three boys the PM doing the six/seven thing and now they have all stopped doing it.

Minor point. But this is the OBR saying that the briefing about income tax being dropped because of improved forecasts is bollocks.

As expected, and as the IMF recommended, Reeves says the OBR will now only assess the public finances against the fiscal rules once a year, at the Budget - to avoid the kind of mad scramble ahead of the Spring statement that led to the botched welfare reforms.

'Science minister Patrick Vallance has rejected concerns that focusing on “doing fewer things better” in research will lead to funding being concentrated in larger research-intensive universities from the Russell Group.' 1/3

"Unlike continental nonsense, analytic philosophy is clear and intelligible"

My pre-budget take for the LSE Politics blog is up: Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose. Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases. Not a great budget backdrop. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

This stuff really boils my piss. It's a long time since I had my kids but the range of things that can go wrong in childbirth is very very large. Why you'd go down this route is a total mystery to me

Word of the day is ‘quockerwodger’ (19th century): a puppet politician whose strings are pulled entirely by someone else.

This is just insane for a number of reasons. Why is it the responsibility of ethnic minorities to ask “what is the cause of our division”? Who the hell thinks this is a good stance to hold?

True. One reason for this is that the issue is wrongly framed as one of needing to raise money, when in fact the issue is how to cut consumer spending so as to release real resources for public spending & investment.

🚨 BREAKING: Kent County Council is hurtling towards financial oblivion under Reform. A shocking new council report reveals a projected budget black hole of £46.5 million for this year. The Reform Administration has completely lost control of our finances. 🔶

Did the bombshell BBC memo misquote the misquote? on.ft.com/4oZZJfN

Burnham says UK would benefit from new approach to growth and politics he's promoting in Manchester - www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...

Good letter from @youellog.bsky.social responding to this. www.ft.com/content/244c...

The UK isn’t a “soft touch” on asylum. UK asylum seeker benefits are similar to European neighbours No right to work before 12 months (it’s 6 months in France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands) UK settlement after 5 years (it’s 3 or 4 in Germany) Let’s cut out the alarmist rhetoric.

Not great news for decarbonising freight…. on.ft.com/4opqI3v Channel Tunnel owner cancels UK rail projects over rise in business rates

Interesting move, with support from Greater Manchester Pension Fund on.ft.com/480BHtL Greater Manchester to launch £1bn public investment fund

Fantastic news!

Danish Social democrats suffered a massive defeat in Copenhagen last night. They incurred similar defeats across the country and there will be a general election in the next year. In Copenhagen the far-left Enhedslisten (the unity list) won the most mandates followed by the socialist people's party.

I’ll just leave this here.

Very senior economist speaks out against Summers and against the discipline continuing to bestow privileges and honors on him; calls out sexism in economics. You'd think this site should be flooded with similar threads...

1/ Egalitarianism should begin at home. I link to this article by @bencasselman.bsky.social in light of the communications between Larry Summers and Jeffrey Epstein that have just been released. The released emails and the fact of friendship are vile. www.nytimes.com/2021/02/23/b...

Interviewer: Can you explain this gap in your resume? Bertrand Russell: I spent months staring at a blank piece of paper.

Very bad day for gilts. There's been a few this year. Nowhere near as bad as Truss era ofc, but I think that insane time has skewed our perception. For instance, a rise in 30yr yields such as happened today only happened once in 10 years pre-COVID. And not once during the 10 years to late 2008.

EXC: Govt to cut heat pump funding to get energy bills down. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

7,261 elderly/vulnerable people in care homes given ‘notice to quit’. Major reason: "revenge evictions’. people “threatened with eviction as a result of raising a complaint" Care homes are mostly in the private sector, owned by corporations and private equity, profit margins of up to 40%.

The improvement in the employment rate of non-EU migrants to the UK over the past 15 years is remarkable, especially since the pandemic. www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...

‘They give the impression that the BBC has caved in to a concerted campaign of pressure from rightwing media and political forces on both sides of the Atlantic.’ You could cut out the first five words of that

Breaking the tax pledge is the right call...and politically sulphurous. Reeves must argue, far more forcefully, that taxes are *the* essential downpayment we all pay for a fairer society. Patrick Diamond and I wrote for @renewaljournal.bsky.social. Key points in 🧵 👇 renewal.org.uk/blog/if-labo...

NEW: Tim Davie resignation email to staff. “You will ask why now? why this moment?”

March 2024: We launch a complaint against the IEA 12 days later: Charity Commission dismisses our complaint May 2024: We complain about that decision 1 year later: The regulator opens an investigation into the IEA This week: The Charity Commission says the IEA must change https://goodlaw.social/8vmm

These discussions, imho, should be brought together with discussions to reduce normal working hours. I don’t want five years of guaranteed pension payment. I want lifelong work/life balance. Bring “retirement” forward and enjoy it your whole life

With the rather awkward caveat that you'd only get the money when you're dead?

Good piece as always by @katie0martin.ft.com on.ft.com/43NcG3R As a historian, I differ in emphasis from this bit. We have of course used the "nuclear option" many times in the past (and the world didn't fall in). In the right political and geopolitical conditions, we may do so again.

From 'Politics and the English Language' by George Orwell

How big are these coach and horses that they can be seen from space?

Everyone is hope scrolling now

Mamdani: "New York will remain a city of immigrants, a city built by immigrants, powered by immigrants, and as of tonight, led by an immigrant."

Late period Osborne: interest rates at zero and 50-80bn of headroom: and his priority was “don’t invest”.

Some say the solution to the UK’s productivity slump is to expand the sectors that pay the highest salaries. Next time you hear that ask the person how many quant hedge fund computer scientists earning £250k-£800k they think the economy needs to become more productive.

Where gov thinking is at on multi-employer CDC assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68f891...

5 reasons for opening this blog, CDC,CDC,CDC,CDC,video! This is the Video of one of Pension PlayPen's best ever coffee mornings. Just check out the faces on this screenshot and you'll get some feeling for what happened over 61 glorious minutes of excitement about CDC. Here are five good reasons…