Just had the horrible realization that Trump is going to stimulate the shit out of the lower end consumer ahead of midterms and a large portion of that is going to flow straight into the most garbage stocks and alt coins on planet earth.

Spirits baggies complaining about multiple rerating from 30x to high teens. Pointing at the 5% divy like it’s a no brainer. Should be asking why it was trading at 30x in the first place. A year ago $BTI was trading at $28 per share 6x EV/EBITDA and offering an 11% dividend yield.

45 product candidates in $REGN ’s pipeline but it’s still priced like Eylea and Dupixent are the entire company and every incremental dollar invested will get torched. Time horizons getting shorter these days. Sets up great dislocations for anyone with flexibility and duration.

AI is cool but coffee and cocoa just hit 50 year highs right as a miracle weight loss drug became widely available after CPG staples used post-covid inflation as a smokescreen to take price above the inflation rate to boost margins and hit a ceiling leading to weak comps in ‘24.

The water is warm.

Party City is a good reminder that the most tempting shorts like PLTR and TSLA (bubble valuations managed by pricks, but high growth and no debt) are generally not great shorts, and the best shorts are overlevered retailers w/ high fixed costs and declining revenue.

A lot of team transitory has migrated to Bluesky but I will refrain from trolling them because this is a peaceful place.

Beginning of the end for the bromance.

Got long a bunch of health care today and was having some indigestion about it midday wondering if I’m underestimating possible reform… then I remembered Dr. Oz is going to be head of CMS. 😂

Currently eating a croissant from a British bakery. Question: what the fuck??

I will never tire of CMTs and Macro dorks pointing to some meaningless N=1 data point to make a vague forecast for the next year that inevitably always implies further upside. (The market usually goes up).

They say nobody rings a bell at the top. And yet…

Just saying…

MDLZ takeover rumor not part of my HSY long thesis, I’m skeptical it will happen and cocoa prices still ripping higher so I sold the news. Better to be lucky than good.

I often think about how the most impactful course I took in college was taught by a professor who used an overhead projector instead of PowerPoint slides because he thought the slides were too distracting from the lectures.

Good times.

Quite the spread. ☕️

Yikes. Our country is in a really bad place. Social media seems to have destroyed any semblance of kindness or empathy.

In this edition of Things You Don’t See At The Bottom: www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...

What level of gambling addiction does one have to bet on the odds of a gambling token hitting X price at by Y date instead of just betting directly on the gambling token or swath of derivatives?

This is going to be such a long four years.

Good day for the tax loss basket. Looks like I’ll be cutting most before we even get to EOY.

$SAVA

I don’t know who needs to hear this (me probably) but general rule of thumb is don’t press ShitCo shorts on a holiday week.

Been thinking about Bessent implications this morning. Deficit hawk who wants to: 1. Cut spending 2. Grow GDP via deregulation Ok, but DOGE is a joke we all know it, gutting clean energy a given but not enough. Has to cut SS, Medicare, Medicaid, or Defense, but would enrage Trump’s base.

I’m not long enough.

Everyday I become more convinced that everything on Seeking Alpha is actually satire.

Frankly, Dove Body Wash not wanting their ads next to @HitlersBalls738392 screaming the N word into the void is the most un-American conspiracy in the history of this nation.

Feels like we’re planting the seeds for crypto centered economic crisis a decade from now. I’d say I’m looking forward to the Michael Lewis book about it but well… you know.

The end is nigh.

Del Taco restaurant level margin has declined by nearly 50% since $JACK acquired them despite raising menu prices 8-10% going on three years now. 😬

All this AI out there and BamSEC can’t get me a transcript the same night as the earnings call?

I’m sure I’m not the first person to ask, but isn’t Occam’s razor for why Berkshire has unloaded so much $AAPL the likely loss of Google’s TAC?

Dip looks buyable to me (stupid stuff aside). Bessent + seasonality and we rip. Some ytd losers especially. Also expect $100k to be a decent sell the news flush for crypto but that’s a spicy meatball.

I already miss the milk toast dullness of Biden. The macro has been distracting enough paying attention to every CPI and jobs report for the last three years. Impossible to model the mood swings of an 80 year old narcissist. C’est la vie.

I don’t huff paint so maybe I just have no edge trading this market, but seems like $MSTR going up 100% every month is not sustainable?

In a nutshell, this is why I think all the tariff talk is mostly bluster. Bond market is going to be the only check on the Trump admin. Bumpy ride regardless.

I know they’re overearning but damn it $CROX looks cheap as hell again. Someone plz hold me back.

Congrats to $TSLA longs, finally we have an admin brave enough to cut unfair regulation and reward innovation. Now if the Trump admin would just addresses the NBA’s unfair drafting policy I could be the starting PG for the Lakers.

As someone who likes to dunk on sell side, I have to admit after going back and reading notes on $HSY from 1H JPM did good work. That said, I think it works as a long here at $170.

Hey @bsky.app very good momentum. Please add cashtags for stock tickers and I’m pretty sure we can port over 90% of FinTwit in a week.

I keep getting excited about beat down stocks of quality businesses trading at 5 year low multiples, then I go back further and look at the multiple expansion from 2016 to 2021.

Sometimes you have to do a lot of work to find good shorts. Other times they make themselves known. *This stonk will probably double again before it becomes shortable.

$NKE is not cheap but I think it fits Munger’s “wonderful business at a fair price” criteria.

Puts him in the 99th percentile of CEOs tbh.

Being long small caps is the best when they report good numbers and open +7% and you feel like your work is validated only to close red for no discernible reason.