For the second week in a row, we've shattered the weekly CO2 record as measured in Mauna Loa Observatory. 430.19- we've never been above 430 for a week before, we'll probably hit it at least 3 more times this year and will probably surpass it.

Thursday was busy birding and hiking so I didn't get around to NOAA and NASA. March 2025 for both, slightly cooler (+0.03) than 2024. When we add ERA5, NOAA NCEP, JRA-3Q (the only one showing slightly higher) this trend is not only consistent but the "spread" high to low is under 0.12°C.

ERA5 Land only, 1940-2025(mar) 60 year change is +2.1°C 15 year change is +0.93°C I know we're only supposed to talk about the entire planet but last time I'd checked, almost all of us live on the land.

An important climate paper is Etminan, et al, 2016 detailing climate forcings for CO2, CH4 and N2O. There are tiny discrepancies based on feedbacks where each molecule shares frequencies, I've calculated the molecular forcing ratios. 1/2 agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Solar output update, comparing cycles 24 & 25 to date. NASA will launch TSIS-2 satellite in Oct., hope it'll be more reliable and they'll provide support. TSIS is the best NASA has had but it's starting to age - Cycle 25 is about 1 part in 6000 hotter than 24 lasp.colorado.edu/data/tsis/ts...

Don't read this if you're squeamish... horrific. Tesla is eventually going to be hit by a massive class action suit or wrongful death and the brand will be even more tarnished. Engineering nightmare, did not execute simple fail-safe. oaklandside.org/2025/03/18/c...

Maybe this AI garbage isn't working? "Viking 6 and Viking 7 spacecraft The shortest manned round trip to Mars was achieved by the Viking 6 and Viking 7 spacecraft, which took 155 and 128 days respectively"

Has anyone noticed that TSLA is in freefall again in pre-market trading? As of 8:45AM on the 18th, down over $8.50 at just under $229.40 a share.

The data was coming in the last several days, there was no doubt we would shatter the record the only question was by how much. Keeling curve for the 10th week of 2025, an average of 429.04 parts per million CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory

Need to have this said, Elon Musk made himself out to be this great hero of humanity, that's why he wants to build electric cars, that's why he wants to establish a base on Mars but all of his actions show he's really a psychopath. We can go through a few famous issues but I'll cut to the chase 1

ERA5 Sea Surface 365 day temperature update. It's been slowly coming off it's spectacular high in July, roughly 1/4°C above it's 2016 record high. The oceans have a much higher thermal load than the atmosphere, about 1100X... it doesn't "prefer" to change rapidly. sites.ecmwf.int/data/climate...

Today's rant: Frump had a chance to right the markets but instead of being smart and say "don't worry, this is a temporary issue and we're going to right the ship immediately" he set fire to the sails and threw the oars overboard. Markets don't want to hear, "people will suffer."

What does X and our tariffs with Mexico and Canada have in common? It's on again, off again, on again, off again.

I'm sorry if this is getting old - triple ice extent lows today. If there's anything reassuring, it's almost a guarantee at sometime this year we won't be at record low global ice extent...

Cycle 25 and 24 comparisons to this portion of their solar cycles, 25 remains well out in front it's almost impossible even if it goes "dark" from now to the end, for it to have less sunspot activity than 24.

Keeling Curve, Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 data. Very early in the year said it we might break the record as early as late February - it was the first full week of March. 428.10 PPM Typically the high point of the year is in the last few weeks of May, sometimes even in June. 430.5±1 likely

I really hope Elon Musk does an excellent job at DOGE, because the way his Tesla stock is going right now, he's going to need a backup financial plan fast. That or drive for GrubHub

Economic explainer/rant. We are seeing interesting results in the market & I mean the currency market not stocks- typically after raising tariffs the home currency rises against competition. Not this time! This is extremely inflationary and will hurt us exports abroad. 1/3

Holy smokes, Tesla sales fell 76% last month in Germany, although that's not as bad as the 81% in Norway. Announced yesterday , 3/Y sales fell 72% in Australia.

Heard this on NPR last week, and no it didn't slip my mind... An rare genetic disorder causes ~ 100% Alzheimer's in ppl over 50, this one gentleman escaped it- used to work navy on ship's engine rooms. Do heat shock brain chemicals prevent Alzheimers? www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/npr/nx-...

NOAA (yup, still alive) released precipitable water data for Feb, 3rd highest level for Feb behind 2023 and 2016, mirroring temperature data. Huge URL upcoming... psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data...

Another rant and I should have copied this when I saw it. Early yesterday morning X had a "leading story" about the successful Starship 8 launch including bullet points (5?) on its major accomplishments including the first orbital Starship flight! One major problem: it's been delayed until Monday🤣

Preliminary ERA5 data (final in about 4 days, don't expect to change by > ±0.002°C) this is the 3rd hottest February on record, which I'd projected very early in the month based on NOAA NCEP data- For the heck of it March is too early to call yet, somewhere in the top 3.

Antarctic & Arctic Ice extent 1st of March, 2025 compared to all prior 1 March in the database. Did not expect: Both fell slightly yesterday, happens about 1 year in 10 Arctic ice remains a record 29th in last 31 days, Antarctic ice tied. Global still a record low 24th in last 25. 1 + 1 = 1

Trump and Vance have made us a pariah nation that no foreign leader will ever trust

Yes, a rant! Having examined all of the elements of the Elon Musk/ ISS / Two "stranded astronauts" issue it's clear Elon is not just not very bright he's also extremely dishonest and clearly a mentally disturbed person. Why does Trump love him so? Evil knows evil.

Okay, need to rant again- I'm turning into the next Lewis Black here... Trump hates EVs, doesn't want anything to do with them, might even introduce taxes specifically targeting them buy- wants a share of Ukraine's mineral rights relating to their manufacturing. 1/

Just how bad is UAH TLT (Temperature Lower Troposphere) compared to everyone else? So far 8 organizations have released Jan 2025 climate data- 7 showed slight warming compared to 2024 and one- UAH showed sharp cooling. They've always been bad, now they're worse... -13.5 standard deviations.

Another economics rant: Today I think is the closing date on February's job report, released March 7 at 8:30 ET. With all of these government layoffs, retirements and people temporarily out for weather related issues, we might have a negative jobs report. A Trump tradition!

PIOMAS monthly Arctic ice volume data for Jan 2025. Second lowest Jan in the database, 2016 remains the year to beat but the margins are shrinking. For the daily data, had to "cheat" to get the data, their still website links to "2024" so I copied the addy and changed to "5".

The problem with "1.5°C" is that's cumulative global average but only 29% of the planet is land, with 68% of that in the northern hemisphere. That's also where ~90% of us live. Using the 1850-1900 benchmark period, the last 12 months is 2.49°C above that average for Northern Hemisphere land - only.

BTW friends... The TSLA freefall continues, the stock has lost almost 70 points in 2025, from $403.84 to $335.93 and I don't see how he gets out of this spiral by spending all of his time working on DOGE and not his own company.

Berkeley Earth is following a new tradition, joining NASA on their 11AM release- I'm very pleased they're doing this, it avoids me hitting F5 every few hours for several days on end.😏 +0.09 hotter than last Jan, roughly in line with GISTEMP, ERA5, JRA-3Q and only slightly higher than NOAA NCEP.

NASA GISTEMP global data out for January, 2025 and back to normal it seems they run their data service the way they used to launch Apollo moonshots- to the second. Spoiler alert- we're not going to see records this February.

An economic rant (what else is new...) Okay so Trump wants the world to buy American because if we buy from them, we're "subsidizing them" of course when they buy from us it isn't subsidizing the US... Until you have domestic suppliers, tariffs on raw materials causes manufacturing inflation. 1

CERES finally dropped, but I don't really have the desire to work on it today much. The most interesting chart is EEI, difference between what's going in vs what's coming out- that's slowly declining to pre-2022 levels but as long as it's substantially positive, temperatures will rise slowly.

JRA55/JRA3Q Chart Not my favorite because it's a true PIA and they're not the best reanalysis source but it's available... The hottest January known, surprisingly the second place wasn't 2024 in this database but 2016.

I know we're not supposed to talk about the other place, but one of my tweets was liked by Tony Levin and Mike Rutherford and I think I'm going to die...

ERA5 Analysis, January 2025: By roughly 0.1°C (preliminary, final will appear in 3 days) 2025 beat out 2024 as the hottest (least-cold?) January on record. First 2 months meteorological winter this year also "least cold" a statistical tie with 2023-2024 but this will change, it'll be in 2nd overall

Keeling Curve, 1 Feb 2025 (I write the dates on my charts for international audiences...) Fourth highest curve on record, typically you don't get within 1PPM of the all time record until April, we're most likely going to break the record before March, with a peak in May almost certainly over 430

Damn, there's an uncomfortable amount of Antisemitism and Holocaust denial on X... Used to be immediately suspended but now their owner is head Nazi.

NOAA's NCEP CFSR CVS (version 2) climate reanalysis- they provide global data every 6 hours including up to 168 hours projection of future global temperatures. They're the first to report- not my favorite source but unexpectedly showing this was the hottest January on record! In a La Nina

It ain't the sun... 1700 - 2024, using Neukom, et al, 2019 and NASA GISTEMP 4.0 for GMST, SATIRE-S, SATIRE-T, SORCE and currently TSIS for solar output. R² for insolation vs GMST is 0.00000011 essentially no correlation at all.

Comparisons of solar output (at 1 AU, top of atmosphere) for the first 62 months of Cycle 25 vs Cycle 24: Here's the most important take-away, yes 25 has more solar output but it's about 1 part in 7000 more, 0.014% which is insignificant. Once again, "it ain't the sun".

Here's the end of 2024 compendium of climate sources- I've eliminated UAH this year because they were once again too much of an outliers to be taken seriously. This time though, on the hot side. In an earlier post- I did the top tens -the agreement when baseline years are harmonised is very strong.

ERA5 data now available to Jan 18. It's almost certain that January 2025 will be the warmest on record, at least with ERA5 and probably NOAA NCEP reanalysis but one month does not make a year, don't expect 2025 to eclipse or come close to 2024.

Keeling Curve for 2nd full week of 2025 Almost typed "4"... Relatively linear so far, makes me wonder how much this will be saw-toothing compared to other years but this is the 8th highest week on record and we will surely shatter last year's record in a few weeks.

Keeling Curve, first full week of 2025. We're going to break the all time record very early in the year, possibly in a month or so and we will easily set a new record high most likely in range of 430PPM.

Put out a ton of data analysis today - my favorite chart every year is always the comparison between three famous climate models- Manabe & Wetherald (nobel winner, 1967 and 1973), Hansen's 1981 "1-D" model, and Exxon's median ensemble 1982. Fvcking Exxon...🤣

HadCRUT starts off this incredibly busy data day with Dec 2024 data, 2nd hottest Dec and hottest year (ten hottest years listed in 1961-1990 baseline chart) Using a 1850-1900 baseline, 2024 was 1.55°C above baseline.