Argentina issuing local law USD bonds to help pay for external debt coupons in 2026 ... Bullish?!? 👎

Getting a ton of 2021 vibes out there... stay vigilant.

So... When things get really hairy... They dash for the good ol' USD? Proof of the hypocrisy.

Ecua bonds +8pts or 15% since Argent bonds -1pt since #alfa

Things you hear at the top...

It took 16 trading days to go from the highs in the ESZ5 6950 to the lows 6525... it took 2 trading days to retrace 50% of the entire move, ESZ5 @ 6740

I'm out of all ARGENT bonds because I have YET to see a credible and realistic plan on how Argentina is going to LOWER debt/gdp. At 50c on the dollar, the investment only needs the issuer to survive. At 80c on the dollar, the investment needs improving debt metrics and lowering of debt/gdp.

if you are bullish Ukraine, I cannot stress enough how much cheaper corp paper is relative to sov...

Basically every succescful equity investor the last 20yrs has invested in hidden monopolies or markets where competition is heavily hampered & corporate margins have exploded higher to erode the social contract of western democracies and their voters which has caused for the rise of the alt-right?

SPX crashes to levels not seen in .... checks notes... 1 month.

You really need to have a lot of confidence to think Jim Chanos & Michael Burry are wrong and you are right. I mean, have they made a movie about how you made billions????

Witkoff : Putin :: Edward VIII : Hitler Pretty much, no?

On Bloomberg TV just now: Equity Analyst: '7200 SPX target YE 2026' Anchor: 'Why you so bearish?' My goodness.

Ok time to flip again... Ecua > Argent

PE firms thinking about all the 'efficiencies' they gonna get by firing everyone at their portfolio companies and then using AI as an excuse...

Reuters: 'Larry Summers says he's stepping back from public commitments after Epstein emails' should read: Larry Summers doesn't want to answer questions about his relationship with Epstein.

*SoftBank Unloads Nvidia Stake for $5.8 Billion in Surprise Move Real 'sell what you can' vibes

Flat Argy. Everything I'm reading (outside of the promise of a buyback) is not bullish. I rather sit it out from here... Bot 2035s at 51.5, sold avg at 75.25... in 1 month, +45%

In honor of Nigeria's super oversubscribed new issues... an oldie but a goodie from 2022/23 puke-athon.

Sold 50% of my position at 74.75 or 11% yield. That's +45% in 1 month. I'm getting worried they aren't going to float the currency soon enough and will have to defend the upper band... infuriating and I hope I'm wrong.

Equities now down for 4 trading days... hang in there everybody. Hopefully we all survive the November 5 day 'crash' of 2025...

The USD...

Dear everybody, the people buying the new issuance from Tech companies are NOT experts in AI. Don't ask them for their opinion on AI. They are debt investors and are buying debt from companies that have more cash than debt outstanding. They won't add any value with their opinion on 'AI'.

The only potential downside about this weekend's Argentine election is that Milei's performance was SO GOOD that perhaps the economic team feels confident and doesn't devalue. That would be a huge mistake that I hope they avoid...

ARGENT bondholders today: www.youtube.com/watch?v=OX-u... I was there live in the stadium :-)

Today's playlist: anything SODA STEREO... thank me later.

Bonds now at 73.5 or +43% in 1 month. I did cut some this am. The position had blown through my signle issuer limits 🤣 #alfa

Hands up, whose financial advisor is recommending EM to them now?!

Ed Luce watching democracy die in the United States of America

The MAGA movement makes me understand how the Catholic Church was able to sell indulgences all those years ago.

Investing is hard. Exhibit #2,467 June 2025: Darrell Cronk: Wells Fargo expects limited upside for stocks this year. October 2025: Darrell Cronk: 'We believe the next 12-15months will favour US Equties' SPX up 13.5% in btwn both dates...

#alfa Since the below: Leban bonds are unch Venz bonds are +4pts or +18% and it is just getting started...

'valuations are high, no matter how you wanna look at it... i dont think it matters. you going to see valuations extend further. im very bullish... there is one simple reason for it. it's easy money' Dan Niles, October 20th, 2025 on BloombergTV.

I spent some time in the USA and it made me question whether I'm in the top or bottom leg of this K-shaped recovery...

Endorse!!!!! www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025...

I might have spoken incorrectly... I guess 12 hour dips are the only chance we will ever get again

I'm starting to think the whole crypto experiment is a Government ploy to teach the population about the importance of financial regulation

SPX 50DMA

Brazil corporate external debt market today

You know it's really bad when you stop getting runs from dealers...

Something weird is going on... my book is actually making money... Call the police.

If Scotty B is willing to buy Pesos... He is definitely willing to buy ARGENT USD bonds I would imagine...

'The Making of the Miracle', Javier Milei Libertarian - until you need to ask Uncle Scott for money.

For the USA to buy the ONE thing that needs to devalue by 20-40% to get Argentina in a place where it can survive is really the dumbest thing I have ever seen. And I've seen some dumb things. This is an absolute last minute hail mary catch for Caputo and econ team. A miracle wish answered. Lets...

I get luaghed at now when I say I'm short... I was max long on April 8th this year. Funny that.

As US equities hit all time highs and everyone feels comfortable... I'd like to, humbly, remind people of the below...

Day 17 of being short EM Spreads...

GOLDMAN'S ROB KAPLAN, on @cnbc.com: ".. I would tell you gold being up almost 40% year to date, .. that should be getting our attention, that's a -- that's a red light that we ought to be paying attention to."