-Two types of ppl I find with this job,-ppl happy the nor’easter missed SONT-&...the one's wishing it hadn't😅-Quick look at the 12Z HRRR run. East Coast storm really get's going, deepen' s significantly. As S. Ontario just experiences flurries & patchy wet snow. #onwx #onstorm

Quickly then, the overall look for next week, several systems moving thru the Great Lakes, my only real concern rn is later in the week. Euro ens. snowfall (mean values) in cm. There may be some mixing around the L. Lakes. We shall see... #onwx #onstorm

7AM EST (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for the day until midnight & other WX-maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: None at post #onwx #onstorm -Hockey🏒

7AM EST (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for the day until midnight & other WX-maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: None at post #onwx #onstorm -Hockey🏒

Latest HRRR48 on the nor'easter of the mid-Atlantic coastline and then a look at SONT with a dying Low bring scattered flurries for Sunday. #onwx #onstorm

...the never ending pattern.....thru next week Plotted: 4casted 👉Mid-level winds/heights, 850mb temps (colour fill, blue/purple-=cold, radar (P-type) ...whatever....😒 #onwx #onstorm

A weakening Low will affect SONT for most of day with cloud/scattered flurries/wet flurries. Models still show a weak convergent zone along the fetch of LONT-may bring some local enhanced wet flurries along N. shores of L. ONT/parts of the GTA #onwx #onstorm (snow totals show it)

7AM EST (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for the day until midnight & other WX-maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: None at post #onwx #onstorm

7AM EST (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for the day until midnight & other WX-maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/bZiLN #onwx #onstorm

Snowy Sat. On-tap (flurries/snow)-centered around a weakening Low over SONT,-but the HRRR has a "convergent line" developing over L. ONT. (temps marginal tho)-enhance band rotating thru?, maybe "big fat flake"(bff?) wet snow? it does have that look tho. #onwx #onstorm We'll C...

7PM EST (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario-includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for overnight till 7AM next day & other maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/nQM3b #onwx #onstorm

7PM EST (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario-includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for overnight till 7AM next day & other maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/mmSwE #onwx #onstorm

Latest hourly run of the HRRR- Wind Gust Potential -in knots, lost of upper 30 to mid 40 knot gusts (Wind gusts up to 80k/hr. potential). Most of it is over L. Erie and along it's northern shoreline for SONT. #onwx #onstorm (Scale on top- in knots: 1 knot=~2k/hrs.)

How the NAM3K see's things play out from now till Sun. 1 PM for SONT. We end up with a dying weak Low over SONT by the weekend, cooler air, and lot's of scattered flurries. #onwx #onstorm You can see the isobars (the lines) collapse (fill) and shrink as the Low💀

Latest Regional Radar comp loop for S. Ontario. 6hrs. History till 7:50 AM EST. A band of rain continues to move into SCONT. #onwx #onstorm

7AM EST (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for the day until midnight & other WX-maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/IujSn #onwx #onstorm

7AM EST (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for the day until midnight & other WX-maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/Z6TlQ #onwx #onstorm

Latest HRRR run, for overnight thru Sat. 7PM, main snowfall with this system will be in EONT. Added WPC's snowfall guidance and rainfall QPF (green areas) all synced to 7PM Sat. #onwx #onstorm

7PM EST (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario-includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for overnight till 7AM next day & other maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/WLlVm #onwx #onstorm

7PM EST (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario-includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for overnight till 7AM next day & other maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/0ejjl #onwx #onstorm

Continuing on the thread of "it's going to be an active weather week" another fast moving low will follow on the heals of yesterday's system, mixed bag of weather, showers/possible storms in SW/SCONT & more snow for EONT/Cottage C.-Colder/flurries on the weekend #onwx #onstorm

7AM EST (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for the day until midnight & other WX-maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/fRqYE #onwx #onstorm

7AM EST (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for the day until midnight & other WX-maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/VTaSM #onwx #onstorm

Latest radar for S. Ontario at 8:10 PM EST, the storms made it across lower MI, into SWONT, and area of enhanced MUCAPE (blue/lime green blobs) has developed and helping. #onwx #onstorm

7PM EST (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario-includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for overnight till 7AM next day & other maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/v3aQJ #onwx #onstorm

7PM EST (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario-includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for overnight till 7AM next day & other maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/OU3LC #onwx #onstorm

I think I prefer the 12Z run of the Rap out to Midnight. Still a messy mix of wet snow/IP/FRZN RA for the ECCC alert areas. Plotted: Radar (P-type) + SFC temp (colour fill-black line=0C/32F. shows the push back of colder air moving west. #onwx #onstorm

7AM EST (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for the day until midnight & other WX-maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/uvqEb #onwx #onstorm

7AM EST (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for the day until midnight & other WX-maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/ZQSUe #onwx #onstorm

Latest regional Radar loop, 6hrs. history, till 7:22 AM EST, included mPing report, SPC storm reports. Mixed bag of weather, rain/emerging FRZN RA/IP -messy morning on-tap...and will continue thru-out the day. #onwx #onstorm

Continuing with a "active week of weather theme"-Once this system moves thru,-another, fast on its heals, very similar with a mixed bag of weather approaches SONT ~Thurs.-Fri. A bigger storm is 4casted just south of us on Sun-may bring some light snow-will watch. #onwx #onstorm

7PM EST (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario-includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for overnight till 7AM next day & other maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/zo6iE #onwx #onstorm

7PM EST (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario-includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for overnight till 7AM next day & other maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/cW4XZ #onwx #onstorm

Complex/Challenging 4cast ahead. messy, phase-changing (maybe?) SFC temps will be one of the drivers (of many), latest HRRR SFC temps-(black/blue line=0C)-near 0C in the AM-then E-NE wind-along with isobars-"push back" milder air-allowing colder air to push west. #onwx #onstorm

Not much (if anything) of 4casted lightning as earlier modelling had-favored areas for lightning formation is focused around graupel-crucial ingredient in the generation of lightning. The red/pink blobs show the highest density of graupel & maybe a rogue strike #onwx #onstorm

...did the same for snowfall (cm) very latest NBM on the progression of the snowfall from Midnight tonight thru 1AM Thurs. Heed all ECCC alerts and guidance and stay safe. #onwx #onstorm

Very latest NBM on the progression of the freezing rain from Midnight tonight thru 1AM Thurs. Heed all ECCC alerts and guidance and stay safe. #onwx #onstorm (ice build up in mm)

Did a quick look-see of various temp profiles/analyzed/4casted across SW/SCONT many of the station profiles have a similar "look" for FRZN rain potential-the set-up (in different shapes and forms, still has warmer air/over colder SFC air and frozen ground. #onwx #onstorm YYZ👇

Models "remains" fairly juicy overall-just the QPF (how much Precip. can be squeezed out of all this, regardless of phase) is in the ~15-25+mm range. 4casts out till Thurs. 7AM #onwx #onstorm

7AM EST (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for the day until midnight & other WX-maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/IFKjj #onwx #onstorm

7AM EST (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for the day until midnight & other WX-maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/siqq1 #onwx #onstorm

One last look-Latest WPC winter snow guidance-48hrs out- from p50 "what is expected"-thru p75 overachieves a bit & the extreme case/upper limit at p95 –WPC shows the range of "possibilities" a 4caster is thinking using many models to achieve this type of 4cast #onwx #onstorm

One last look-Latest WPC winter ice guidance-48hrs out- from p50 "what is expected"-thru p75 overachieves a bit & the extreme case/upper limit at p95 –WPC shows the range of "possibilities" a 4caster is thinking using many models to achieve this type of 4cast #onwx #onstorm

7PM EST (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario-includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for overnight till 7AM next day & other maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/25Iwz #onwx #onstorm

7PM EST (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario-includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for overnight till 7AM next day & other maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/EGuXt #onwx #onstorm

Back in the drivers chair after a busy day, quick look at the regional radar, a few elevated, isolated storms riding ahead of the warm front...a bit of MUCAPE( light blue blob) intersecting the warm front, added 850mb (~5k/ft. up) wind barbs. #onwx #onstorm

Latest WPC winter snow guidance-72hrs out- from p50 "what is expected", thru p75 overachieves a bit, and the extreme risk/upper limit at p95 –WPC shows the range of "possibilities" a 4caster is thinking using several (10+) models to achieve this type of 4cast #onwx #onstorm

Latest WPC winter ice guidance-72hrs out- from p50 "what is expected", thru p75 overachieves a bit, and the extreme risk/upper limit at p95 –WPC shows the range of "possibilities" a 4caster is thinking using several (10+) models to achieve this type of 4cast #onwx #onstorm

Quick hand analyzed GEPS Sig. Weather threats-till 7PM Wed. Finally! the GEPS see's the FRZN RA threat-took it a while (vs. EURO et al.) along with risk of storms, heavy rains & sig. SFC runoff=melting snow & additional Precip. #onwx #onstorm busy comp map,-lol

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