The market is now calling a defeat for Trump in the tariffs case based on this morning's oral argument. One can't be certain about this, but I also see at least 5 votes to uphold the Federal Circuit decision and only 2 clearly with Trump.

Vote!

Halloween began as Samhain in Ireland, when the veil between this world and the "otherworld" thinned. In Co. Roscommon, this cave 👇 called Uaimh na gCat was said to open on Samhain allowing the spirits to walk freely among the living. 👻 📷 my own

TFL throwing trans-Atlantic shade? 😆

Climate change is changing trade routes. www.eadt.co.uk/news/2557335...

The political atmosphere in California feels more charged than I’ve ever seen it. From “No King” protests to Homeland Security's “self-deport” campaign, tensions are high. With the Prop 50 redistricting vote approaching and Obama campaigning for the Yes side, the state’s political climate is tense.

China files WTO complaint over India EV, battery subsidies www.reuters.com/world/china/...

EU fraud investigators raid Greek farm funds agency regarding #subsidies via POLITICO share.google/ByntkglIOZPl...

Looking forward to this! Industrial Policy in a New Era of Global Trade | Edinburgh Law School share.google/x3OtIA0Ly42W...

The new direction of travel: "securonomics"

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), established by US President Clinton in 2000, expired yesterday at midnight. For 32 African countries, (even more) uncertainty now looms over #tariffs, exports, and jobs. abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory...

#TombTuesday In Roscommon Ireland, this portal tomb is known as Tinnacarra ("Stone of Fire") or Ballynanultagh Dolmen. It has strikingly tall portal stones (~2.4 metres) . Estimated to date from between 4200 BC and 2900 BC. 📸 My own #TombTuesday #Prehistory #Ireland

If this price differential for a high-street brand skirt is due to US #tariffs, it suggests a tariff pass-through rate of 100%, controlling for the exchange rate. But of course, there could be other factors at play.

In the UK, 1 in 4 people aged 18 to 34 own crypto! 🤯

China opens way to WTO reform by ceding ‘developing country’ benefits - on.ft.com/3W7XutW via @FT

This is big news. Could it unlock at least some of the stalemate at try WTO? 🤞

“They did so by forming coalitions with like-minded countries… a wider range of states can effectively participate in international negotiations than traditionally assumed.” 💯x 10 👆

You did it, WTO!

Which European country offers the most generous government #subsidies to buy EVs? www.euronews.com/business/202...

The WTO has named Robert Staiger as its new Chief Economist. Here is my @trade--talks.bsky.social podcast conversation in 2023 with Bob where he shared his thoughts about the WTO.

A taxi driver, unimpressed by my poor French, barked at me to "speak English". Then a barista demanded I continue in French after I switched into English. Linguistic purgatory. 🤣

It took +20 years of negotiations. It could change the future of our oceans. The WTO’s Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies comes into force today. Why it matters and how it happened: shorturl.at/EzvJx

After +20 years of negotiations, the WTO’s Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies enters into force today. This agreement represents a major step toward aligning global trade rules with environmental sustainability. Explore how this milestone was reached and what it means: shorturl.at/EzvJx

I did it. I turned the heat on.

We need your help to find meteorite that crashed into Scotland. 🔭 🧪 www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/...

AI deployed in an effort to reduce corruption in public procurement in Albania. The Prime Minister said: AI will be "entrusted with all decisions on public tenders". www.france24.com/en/live-news...

Tube strike = 1.5 hour walk across London today. In the rain. But, as always, Londoners rise to a challenge. Saw many small acts of kindness today as everyone struggled to navigate the deluge, buses, sink holes, and rogue Lime bikes.

In 2022, China had nearly 1800 ships under construction. The US has just five. 🤯

More than 1,000 Greek farmers and agribusinesses are under investigation for the abuse of EU #subsidies europeannewsroom.com/greece-probe...

We don't talk enough about sub-national #subsidies. They often account for a majority of a nation's total subsidy amount, particularly in federal systems. www.seafoodsource.com/news/supply-...

Would love to see the full criteria for the UK's new EV subsidy scheme. Which cars qualify and why? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

The Fed’s future hangs in balance after Trump’s assault - on.ft.com/4lECVQ9 via @FT

Incredible gamble by Bayrou, calling a confidence vote in just a couple weeks when he has no majority in Parliament Likelihood of French govt collapse is high www.france24.com/en/live-news...

European wine is about to cost more in the US as a new trade deal adds a 15% tariff. Will EU member states step in with more subsidies to help winemakers? I dive into EU wine subsidies here: shorturl.at/PZ0Os www.dw.com/en/eu-us-dea...

Thank you @sjrickard.bsky.social The high (0.8!) positive correlation of USD and 10-year Treasury rates held unbroken since at least 2012 (I checked) and on average since at least 1982. Reversing sign is a BFD More sophisticated analyses come to the same end e.g. @helene-rey.bsky.social

Lots of great stuff here. 👇 One of my favourites: "Ever since the administration’s April 2 tariff announcements, the correlation between U.S. interest rates and the dollar has reversed, indicating that something other than day-to-day economic news is driving the dollar down."

My article The New Economic Geography is out today in @foreignaffairs.com Please read! (Ungated link, suitable for sharing) shared.outlook.inky.com/link?domain=...

Out tomorrow in @foreignaffairs.com my new article, your guide to the new global economic geography. The implications go far beyond rebalancing trade surpluses and will last far longer than any deals.

Writing about lightning-fast changes in US trade policy… for the glacial pace of academic publishing? Not easy. Thanks to everyone at World Trade Review for breaking the sound barrier and getting this special issue out in record time! Find my piece here (open access): doi.org/10.1017/S147...

Grapes of wrath: South African wineries hit by 30% US tariffs - on.ft.com/3JrYZjx

A very interesting, disturbing piece. 👇

Fishing port in southern China offers USD 5.6 million subsidy package to expand local fleet’s distant-water capabilities share.google/CrmYsMwLsaBA...

Whether 15% incorporates existing tariffs or is additional makes a big difference to the final rate. To give an illustrative example. If we assume MFN US tariff on shoes is 12%, under JP understanding the tariff would be 15% (12% incorporated into 15% rate), under US understanding it would be 27%

NEW: We're tracking tariff revenue as a % of monthly total import values US businesses pay (including shipping & insurance), by type of good & country of import, along with revenue compared to the federal budget deficit. Check out the interactive charts here:

The UK Trade and Agriculture Commission (TAC) seeks written submissions on the UK-India free trade agreement. Call for evidence closes at midday on 31 August 2025. More info here: www.gov.uk/government/c...

Great headline 👇 (and coverage of course).

Switzerland 39%? 🇨🇭

“Businesses in the Republic without a presence in the North will now peer enviously across the Border at the lower rate to be applied there. This is the first year since Ireland – both parts – joined the [EEC] in 1973 that such a differential has been in play.” www.irishtimes.com/business/202...

Absolutely. We had a choice. A big American Brexit, or the dismantling of the whole system. That the EU is choosing the latter is shameful. And very much against its own interests.

Full text of the UK-India trade agreement is available here: www.gov.uk/government/c...