Consumer sentiment fell to 48.2 in May, near record lows, despite easing inflation expectations. My take is consumers still feel squeezed by cumulative costs, especially gas, food, and insurance. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

US payrolls rose 115K in April, beating expectations, while unemployment held at 4.3%. Wage growth continues to outpace inflation, but participation slipped and manufacturing weakened. My take is the labor market is stabilizing, but still uneven underneath. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Jobless claims rose to 200K last week but still came in below expectations, while continuing claims fell to a two year low. My take is the labor market still looks stable overall, but hiring conditions continue to feel much weaker in parts of the economy. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

US private hiring rose 109K in April the strongest pace since early 2025. Healthcare and trade led gains while professional and business services lost jobs. My take: the labor market still looks stable overall but increasingly segmented beneath the surface. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

New home sales rose to 682K in March, strongest pace this year, as prices fell and builders leaned into incentives. My take is this isn’t a housing rebound. It’s demand being unlocked selectively as affordability gets engineered back into the market. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Job openings edged down to 6.87M in March while hiring rebounded to 5.6M. My take is the labor market isn’t weakening, it’s normalizing. Demand is holding, but it’s uneven, with strength concentrated in specific roles while visible layoffs shape perception. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Factory orders rose 1.5% in March, well above expectations, with ex-transport also strong. Not flashy but important. Businesses are still ordering and producing even as some consumer data softens. My take is the economy feels slower than it is. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

S&P PMI 54.5 beat, ISM 52.7 held. Manufacturing still expanding, but prices surged and hiring contracted. My take is firms are pushing activity forward while getting more defensive. If cost pressure sticks, something has to give. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Jobless claims fell to 189K, lowest in decades and well below expectations. Layoffs remain limited even as headlines suggest cuts. My take is the labor market is stable but not frictionless, and that stability is helping sustain demand. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

PCE came in as expected but the story is demand. Spending rose 0.9% and income surprised higher, keeping pressure on prices. Energy explains the spike, consumers explain the persistence. My take is inflation holds because demand does. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Housing starts jumped 10.8% in March, but permits fell 10.8%. Builders are finishing what’s in motion, but pulling back on what’s next. My take is that the consumer isn’t gone, just less reliable, and that’s how slowdowns actually begin. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Core capital goods surged 3.3% in March, the strongest since 2020, even as consumer behavior remains cautious. Investment is still leading. My take is that this is why growth is holding despite weaker sentiment. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

T-Mobile pushing deeper into fiber to expand home internet footprint. My take is telecom is shifting from single lines to the household, where bundles raise revenue, reduce churn, and make switching harder. That is where long term value is being built. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Consumer confidence rose to 92.8, beating forecasts and supported by a stable labor market. My take is consumers aren’t pulling back, but they are harder to convince, which keeps demand selective and uneven. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Honored to be speaking at Oxford Tech Week. My take is the value isn’t the panels, it’s the decisions and partnerships that come out of the room. I’ll focus on how economics and behavior show up in real growth. Also less hair now. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/oxtech...

Real Brokerage buying RE/MAX as housing consolidation picks up. Activity stabilizing but not recovering, and scale is becoming the strategy. My take is when volume slows, industries consolidate and housing is now in that phase. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

49.8 consumer sentiment, down from 53.3. Inflation expectations jump to 4.7%. My take is the consumer isn’t breaking, but fragmenting, and rising price expectations are widening that gap. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Manufacturing PMI 54.0, services 51.3, composite 52.0. My take is growth is broadening, but some demand may be pulled forward, keeping volatility and a cautious consumer in play. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

214K jobless claims, still consistent with limited layoffs. Continuing claims up to 1.82M, showing some friction. My take is this is not one labor market, and stability in the data can still feel uneven, which is enough to keep the consumer cautious. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Amex billed business up 10% to $428B, driven by premium card spending. BNPL delinquencies rising and payday borrowing remains active. My take is the consumer looks stable in aggregate, but behavior is fragmenting across points of constraint. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Spirit may get a $500M lifeline. My take is this isn’t just an airline story. It’s pressure at the lowest end of the consumer showing up first, while premium travel holds. That divergence is the economy right now. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

SpaceX may acquire Cursor for $60B. My take is this isn’t about better models, it’s about controlling the interface where work gets done and scaled. That’s where value may shift next. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Retail sales rose 1.7% in March with the control group up 0.7% vs 0.2% expected. My take is this is real strength, not just gas prices, but it reflects a consumer that is still spending unevenly across segments. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Gas prices rise fast and fall slow. Saw a great NYT piece on this. My take is it’s not just costs, it’s behavior. Consumers react quickly to increases but accept decreases once they feel relief. In uncertain times, memory matters more than optimization. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Found a 1932 Teggart book on Veblen at MacLeod’s Books in Vancouver, buried in a 100k-book shop. My take is discovery still beats algorithms, and value isn’t always searched for, it’s stumbled into. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

207K jobless claims, lowest since Feb decline. Continuing claims up but trend still improving. My take is the labor market isn’t weakening, but it is becoming less consistent, and that’s enough to keep the consumer cautious. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Import prices rose 0.8% in March, below expectations, while export prices climbed 1.6%. My take is the signal sits beneath the surface. Energy is doing most of the work, but global pricing power is still holding. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

PPI came in cooler than expected. My take is pipeline inflation is not reaccelerating even as energy pushes the headline higher, which suggests pressure on consumers may not broaden from here. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

NFIB small business optimism fell to 95.8 in March while uncertainty jumped to 92. My take is this is less about sentiment and more about margins. Earnings rolled over, sales weakened, and that’s usually where slowdowns start. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Existing home sales fell 3.6% to 3.98M. My take is the housing market isn’t weakening, it’s constrained. Volume is falling while prices still rise, which tells you supply and locked-in homeowners matter more than demand right now. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Consumer sentiment fell sharply to 47.6 while inflation expectations jumped to 4.8% as the Iran-driven energy shock hits how consumers think and behave. My take is this is where a more selective consumer begins to show up in the data #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

CPI came in hot at 0.9% m/m and 3.3% y/y, but core was softer at 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y, suggesting energy is driving the move while underlying inflation is stabilizing; my take is Fed on hold as headline pressure rises but core does not reaccelerate #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Consumer spending rose 0.5% while income fell 0.1% and real spending barely increased; my take is the consumer is holding the line by adjusting behavior, not pulling back, which points to resilience but also a more fragile balance ahead #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Jobless claims rose to 219K while continuing claims fell to 1.794M, signaling more job losses but faster reemployment; my take is the labor market is still turning over, not breaking, which keeps the consumer in the game for now #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Hedge funds saw their worst month since COVID as volatility spiked and correlations surged, meaning diversification broke down. My take is when markets lose differentiation, both investors and consumers become more cautious. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Durable goods orders fell -1.4% vs -1.1% expected, but core rose 0.8% and core capex (ex-aircraft) increased 0.6% My take is businesses were still investing heading into uncertainty, not pulling back yet #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

ISM Services PMI 54.0 vs 54.9 est and 56.1 prior, prices jumped to 70.7 highest since Oct 2022, employment fell to 45.2. My take is growth is still there but the mix is shifting as costs rise and hiring pulls back. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Payrolls +178K vs 65K expected while unemployment fell to 4.3%, but the labor force shrank by ~400K. My take is hiring is holding up, as claims suggested, but a smaller labor pool is driving the headline and masking a more constrained market. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Initial claims fell to 202K while continuing claims rose to 1.841M. My take is layoffs remain low but reemployment is slowing as hiring demand cools, pointing to a labor market that is stable but becoming less fluid. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Retail sales rose 0.6% in Feb, with core and control both at 0.5%, all beating expectations. January revised to -0.1% suggests spending never really pulled back. My take is the consumer is holding, but unevenly, consistent with an E-shaped dynamic. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Consumer confidence rose to 91.8, well above expectations, but expectations fell and labor perceptions were mixed. My take is sentiment looks strong, but slower hiring and mobility point to a more cautious consumer. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Job openings fell to 6.9M from 7.2M while hires dropped sharply to 4.8M. My take is demand is easing but hiring is slowing faster, making it harder for workers to move back into comparable roles. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Uber acquiring Blacklane to expand premium travel. My take is this reflects an E economy where high end spending is strong, lower income participation is rising, and the middle is becoming more selective. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Consumer sentiment fell to 53.3 in March while 1Y inflation expectations jumped to 3.8 percent. My take is consumers feel worse while expecting higher prices, which leads to more selective spending rather than a collapse in demand. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Initial claims rose to 210K while continuing claims fell to 1.819M. My take is layoffs remain low but the drop in continuing claims is not a clean signal as it may reflect reemployment or workers exiting or taking lower quality jobs. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Mortgage rates hit 6.43% a five month high and applications fell sharply. My take is demand is shifting from disappearing to delayed as loss aversion and rate uncertainty slow decisions. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, beating expectations, while Services PMI fell to 51.1 and the composite dropped to 51.4, a near one year low. My take is growth is slowing as cost pressures build, creating a more constrained environment beneath the surface. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Construction spending fell 0.3% in January, missing expectations, with private activity down and public spending rising. My take is investment is becoming more selective, with government offsetting softer private sector commitment. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

Household net worth rose $2.2T to a record, driven by equities while housing declined. My take is this is starting to look more E-shaped, with gains at the top, a flattening middle, and increasing pressure on lower-income households. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

New home sales fell to 587K in January, well below expectations, dropping 17.6% from the prior month as inventory rose. My take is demand remains intact but highly conditional, with activity slowing quickly when affordability tightens. #econsky www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...