It was either that gorgeous Ferreira goal or Preston Judd getting a yellow for simulation that was so obvious he couldn't even argue, just had to take it.

Another RotoGraphs debut! This one from @corbinyoung21.bsky.social. Super excited to add him to the team, and this first piece shows why. BRB, going to try to buy low on Tanner Bibee.

McGreevy popped up in two different articles today with slightly different takes. He's an interesting one, and I've been cautiously buying in as I see some positive trends and signs

The newest addition to the RotoGraphs team, Jack Dorfman, debuts with a look at some underappreciated pitchers. Can't tag him here because he's too smart to be on social media

One of the more interesting things in that Toluca-LAFC match was that Toluca seemed to decide David Martinez was the danger man and tried to stop him even if the meant been less focused on Bouanga and Son.

Team with 4 IL spots taken up by Palencia, Puk, Boyle, Lodolo and now Fairbanks has this weird numbness/nerve thing. 12 teams/25 man rosters plus some MiLB slots and IL so not a ton of great FA. I need to make a call by tomorrow if I'm cutting one of those injured dudes. Not happy about it

I totally forgot he's still a rookie. Yeah he should be in this conversation too

Travis Bazzana is gonna win himself a full year of service time and Chase Delauter is gonna win the Guards an extra draft pick.

Add a filter for double-digit barrel rate (so walking more than K'ing and making loud contact) you get: DeLauter Vargas Ramirez Yordan Trout I know Chase is slumping but this is wild company, especially for a guy who is still learning MLB pitching (he's practically still learning PRO pitching)

If we're going to continue assigning pitcher wins, you shouldn't be allowed to get credited with a win because you lost the lead and your team got it back. At least not if you only throw 1 inning.

While we're on the topic of baseball scoring quirks: I won a fantasy matchup this week because I got an RBI when Matt Olson didn't hit the ball hard enough to get doubled up. Had he hit the ball harder, the run still scores but he gets a GIDP and no RBI. Instead, I tied up RBI and won 6-5-1

Some BBs are truly earned by taking close pitches and fouling off good pitches. And sometimes a pitcher just throws 4 straight nowhere near the zone. Some ROE are truly earned by hitting the ball hard and pressuring the D with your speed. And sometimes a guy just drops a pop up.

Random baseball thought of the day: When a hitter reaches on an error, it should count like a walk or HBP. No AB, just a PA and a positive for their OBP.

This feels like a problem for Nashville who are going to have to find a way to not lose on the road at the Azteca. Huge for LAFC tho. Cruz Azul can definitely score 4 but they'll have to go all out to do it and that'll leave them open to LAFC on the counter. That's where Bouanga and co want to be.

19 strikeouts. not 10. typoed that in a bad way. 19!

I hope everyone enjoyed the Gavin Williams coming out party. Doing that to that lineup in their park? What a nice recovery from a shaky first outing.

Not that JAWS is perfect, but only 12 SP ahead of Sale in JAWS aren't in the hall. That includes Clemens (should be in), Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer, Greinke (matter of time) and Schilling (would rather be an asshat than get in). Especially as we adjust to modern pitching volume, Sale should be in.

has there been talk about how challenge strategy should maybe vary by opponent? I know game state, leverage, etc. have been discussed. but if you are facing Skenes (esp if you have a good SP going - does it make sense to tell your SP/C to save challenges for the bats cause they will need any edge?

These aren't the guys I commented on in my article, but this early in the season, go to savant and check out the shape of the swing speed changes. I think we can get a better sense of who has really made a change that way fantasy.fangraphs.com/small-sample...

This is from yesterday, but it's equally relevant today and the answer is "he was just facing the guardians" If they were just reasonably patient, he wasn't throwing strikes at all.

The Dodgers discovered this fact in the off-season and are going to start Sasaki just to be able to share this nugget.

in a 5x5 OBP, who sits today: Tork vs Soroka Bregman vs. Ryan Johnson Paredes vs. Ranger Suarez Murakami vs. Paddack Benching Paredes vs a LHP seems like a wild decision, but...think it's the right one?

We're recording an episode of Keep or Kut tomorrow and here's what we need from you: Give us your opening weekend overreactions and we'll let you know if we're buying it or selling it. Hit us with your hot takes!

I was at the games in Seattle the last two nights and I've seen enough in those two games and this one video to know Bazzana up and Arias out makes the guards much better

If Weah can be "good enough" against Doku, he can basically play this role any time we need him to. That's a huge finding today, I think.

This was on the wall of my bedroom. Had some other stars from other sports, but the baseball posters were all Cleveland. Except Junior

Went with the Doby yesterday. Guards won. No choice to be made today, you can't mess with a streak. Yes one game is a streak, especially when it's the first game.

Why Angel instead of Fry? Know Martinez would need to come in for defense anyway but this is why Fry exists right?

I missed this

I love wearing this one, if only because I sometimes get "who's 14?" and I love being able to talk about Doby. Hall of Famer; broke AL color barrier shortly after Robinson broke it in NL when the leagues didn't play each other, so Doby was still on the front line. Big part of last CLE title.

Alright Guards fans (or anyone who cares to weigh in) - heading to the game tonight. What's my Opening Night fit? City Connect, '48 road Doby, or black Kwan?

On a related note, I have Judge on a team for the first time ever this year so if he actually does strike out 600 times that's on me

FWIW, every yankee appears to be way down, which suggests to me that this is a measurement issue, not a Judge issue. I suspect single game bat speed includes all swings, so a couple of half-hearted/non-competitive swings skew this. but maybe Mike will answer me and I'll find out for sure

I have no idea if this is a thing I should look at ( @mikepetriello.bsky.social ?) but Judge average 77 mph on swings last year. tonight... 73.4 Things I don't know: 1) are big variations in swing speed game to game normal? 2) is one game swing speed ALL swings (season-long is top 90% of swings)?

Baseball starts in less than 24 hours and before that happens I'm gonna thread one post per team on why their fans should be excited and why other have should want to watch them. Starting with the NL West...

Drove from Cleveland to Birmingham with my family. Dad's car started dying after couple hrs. Turned around and tried to get home. Almost made it. Car died died by our exit. Dad had to get a ride home to get my mom's car. He unpacked/repacked on the highway, got the dead car towed...and started over.

Final auction of the season for me. Have some work to do in a 6x6 H2H cats (5x5 OBP/QS with 2B+3B and K/BB as the 6th cats). I need a full MI and need OF help. Budgeted $60 for a stud OF and got $56 Acuna. $260 cap/25 man rosters, 14 keepers so big inflation. Really happy with this start

Niv's a great dude in a million ways, but if you're a fantasy player, this stands out: he's accessible and transparent in a way no one else in the industry (or any industry) is. Engages with users, addresses issues, shares details. I'd pay such a premium to have people behind other products do this.

If you've got an @ottoneu.com auction coming up, this note in the Ottoneu forums (community.ottoneu.com) might be helpful

People are dunking on DeRosa for this and he deserves to be dunked on endlessly for a dozen things, but I suspect this was a "you can use him like this or we'll just tell you that you can't use him at all" from the Padres, who are probably thrilled with how this played out.

I've been assuming Messick is starting the year in Columbus but Allen also has an option and... Yeah i hope Messick gets the spot. FWIW this is more about Messick than about Allen even though it's coming after Allen's start today

Just gonna keep sharing this out semi regularly

We're hiring! Looking for talented, analytical writers to cover fantasy baseball. Details below. Ping me with questions, apply if interested. Flex in when/what you write. Would love to beef up keeper / @ottoneu.com coverage. Pts lgs could use love. Also want to know what YOU want to write about.

random thought fluttered into my head - it's hard to start Rockies bats away in fantasy because the diff between Coors and everywhere else is hard on hitters. but they aren't in Coors now and they start at MIA and TOR (no cold weather). could be a chance to use Rox for 12 straight to open the season

Always one of my favorite articles to write. And then I spend all season hoping I didn't go 0-10

Just landed in Phoenix. Boarding a flight full of people in Mariners gear in March is super fun. More fun? When the flight attendant at the door points at my sweatshirt and says "Yes! Go Guardians!" Nice to not be alone lol

Just listened to @zackmeisel.bsky.social & @dvr.bsky.social on Rates and Barrels. Perfect encapsulation of life as Guards fan. Off-season?👎 The kids?🔥 Are the kids, uh, good?🤷 Or healthy?😭 But coaches!😍 Pitching factory!✅ you sure?😬 Add 75 wins?🤔 Eh they'll somehow find a way to win 87.🤞

Replace 2005 with 2011 and this is me. Growing up in Cleveland, I'm still tied to all my Cleveland teams, but I never cared about the Crew and years in Chicago didn't connect me to the Fire. So here I am, the world's only Guardians Cavs Sounders Reign fan who also has some love for the Mariners.

Another random thought here: it'll be really easy to just assume "high percent of overturns good, low percent bad" when evaluating players/teams, but it's probably not that simple? A team getting a super high percent of challenges right is quite possibly not challenging enough.

The clippers were among the least successful teams in terms of % of challenges won, but they were also among the teams that used challenges most on offense and least on pitching. Wonder if that's just a thing that happened or an organizational philosophy?