Still

You know it's gonna be an interesting day when the other place starts to sound like this place.

It's kind of amusing that the MAGA movement was billed as diametrically opposed to the Neocons and yet their leader wants to start a foreign war for oil (and ego ofc). Also amusing that the oil industry reply is thanks, but no thanks.

Security guarantees but only on paper and signed by liars

When you still want to own tech stocks but you hate the political climate... www.ft.com/content/6601...

You really gotta hand it to Trump. He ran on a platform of bringing back high paying jobs for unskilled non-immigrant labor and with every appointment he has lived up to that promise.

The death of music...in any other time period the current political environment would have brought about a cultural movement that infected the music scene. I don't see that anywhere. The kids are not alright.

Trump's biggest skill is anchoring and moving goal posts

That Cuban , a man who made his wealth monetizing a bubble, wants little to no regulation of crypto is maybe the most unsurprising thing ever. That he doesn't even understand why his position makes no sense and just wants to yell at regulators is same energy.

"Compagnie du Mississippi II - John Law but Crazier" www.ft.com/content/eb44...

My daughter has this raffle at elementary school and one of the prizes is "principal for the day". I feel like this just happened to the country except it's the president and it's for 4 years.

Whispers: Geico looks like it's back and I would expect them to ramp acquisition spend a lot. Suspect it's about to get a lot more competitive in auto insurance.

Welp I'm calling this one. Elon is out.

So I guess we chase highs. Stuff not cheap but people offsides and we can rally. Names hit by degrossing probably do best. AI is its own thing but could rally the hardest. Some truly bombed out sectors (like biotech) might be great LT but not broadly risk-on trades. Banks rally if market rallies.

We chose to treat our friends very poorly

I wonder what Bessent is thinking right about now

Vol was cheap for so long

Every morning the question becomes more rhetorical

The more aggressive the behavior the harder the recoil

Bessent on tariffs: "One, it is a good source of revenue. Two, it protects our important industries and their employees. And three, he (Trump) has added a third leg to the stool and he uses it for negotiating." Tariffs...the solution to all of life's problems

We have reach the part of the cycle where grandpa tries to sell you on the idea that $118B of holdco cash is really not that much.

The zeitgeist of today is grift and unrestrained power. Obstacles to grift are being dismantled primarily through a gutting of enforcement (i.e. the rule of law) and not by changing said laws. It's out in the open and no one is hiding anything. It's domestic and international.

NATO is dead. EU needs to learn to defend itself…An EU defense alliance w/ actual troops. Quite a few countries should be developing nukes, including Ukraine. The EU should let the UK back into the trade bloc because it’s helpful for defense. The world will not be safer, but it is what it is.

The current socioeconomic situation in the US is deeply troubling. This is true whether or not you believe the current cure is worse than the disease. To say this has not been reflected in risk assets is an understatement, but there are also no risk-free assets despite what you may have been taught.

Sad on quite a few levels

Oh sure we have war rooms for everything at JPM. Trump just happens to be one of those war rooms.

Why are CEOs worried? Because when Kernen think something is crazy...

The parallel is Andrew Jackson in so many ways that one has to be blind not to see it. Gonna be quite a test for the constitution. The biggest morons are "the end justifies the means" proponents because breaking something is far easier than building something.

Always amazed when people constantly post positive shit about their holdings. The game is finding attractive r/r, not cheerleading your holdings.

There is a point at which your knowledge on a subject (really your ego) becomes a hindrance to your ability to see or hear clearly. I think you can see this overconfidence when you start dismissing people because they lack a similar level of knowledge. I think everyone does this sometimes.

My favorite thing about WEB is that people stare at his track record and find one thing that they think was genius and it's almost always a rounding error in his performance...like those puts he wrote pre-GFC. This was a side hustle for him.

A lot of people are gonna end up on the wrong side of history and will spend a long time explaining their actions in the future.

The only actual purpose (other than grifting) for the Fed to buy crypto is to devalue the dollar. And I could absolutely see that being the goal of a certain treasury secretary.

Takes like this and the engagement it got is how your get to a market where there are no real admitted carriers. California and Florida fighting for the title of dumbest state for insurance regulation. GLTA!

As usual, Trans is right. Nothing about these fires is uninsurable. What makes events uninsurable is a potential loss that is too large as a proportion of overall reinsurance capital (probably around 3/4 of a $T today). $100B of insured losses is totally manageable today and this is not near that.

People are gonna learn that he DGAF about your politics. That ain't saving your from tariffs. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

We are set for a massive trade war. I don't see a grand US/China accord. The questions: (1) How we choose to treat our friends (2) What the rest of the world does about China's appetite for surpluses It's a global trade system and I don't think anyone really knows how this will all play out.

Whenever an expert denigrates someone’s argument based on credentials you know they have lost the plot.

This one is masterful. Satya so carefully threads that needle of OAI will win consumer (what Brad wants to hear) because it's this generation's platform company, but MSFT will win enterprise because it's a muti-model world and Satya is a multi-model girl. www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Nts...

I know a few of you think that Icarus will never get his comeuppance, but I'm gonna take the over on this one.

What an absolute clown show this is gonna be www.reuters.com/business/aut...

I see now we are now going down the 'abolish the SEC', it's all one big conspiracy rabbit hole. DOGE will be a tool to gut regulation the richest guy in the world doesn't like, not to cut government spending.

We should see a bunch of deflation in Chinese manufactured goods looking for new export markets once new tariffs hits. Auto parts are bad already w/ the electrification that has happened in China and are about to get a whole lot worse.

There are 3 kinds of people: 1. People who know a bank can't possibly develop a system w/ any capacity to detect fraud and money laundering while serving (almost all) crypto institutions (a product designed to evade AML). 2. People trying to make money from crypto. 3. Normies

The most popular podcasts are the least valuable in any general subject. Once you get into niches the majority is right. Yes this is about the All-In-Fraud pod and Lex “no hard questions” Fridman

You can only learn so much by reading. And often the best books in an area provide far deeper insight once you have enough experience to read between the lines. The number of books you have read doesn't say much about your level of knowledge.

They finally got it right.

Be the change you want to see

Hawk Tuah girl drawing men in by spitting only to figuratively turn them around and strap one on is a society defining moment in time