Good evening, Sarajevo.

Today’s large-scale military march in Belgrade - w/ Russian officials in the stands - is another clear warning that Vucic remains categorically committed to the use of force, both against his own citizens, and neighboring states (specifically Bosnia and Kosovo). www.rferl.org/a/serbia-mil...

By refusing to materially respond to Russia’s repeated incursions into Allied airspace, NATO is inviting tragedy. Unless it faces meaningful consequences for these provocations, Moscow will soon (“accidentally”) move on to actual strikes, perhaps even at civilian targets.

The Serbian edition of Russia’s RT propaganda outlet has ✨ feelings✨ about my recent @foreignpolicy.com text which argues there is a historically symbiotic relationship between Serbian imperialist pretensions in the Western Balkans and its inability to develop a democratic regime at home.

BIH’s Deputy Fin Min has authorized the funds to hold snap elxns in the RS entity to replace ousted secessionist Dodik. But the Fin Min, Dodik’s cadre, has literally stolen the stamp necessary to make the decision legal. Idiotic, desperate & criminal. www.klix.ba/vijesti/bih/...

NEW: In @foreignpolicy.com I argue there is an intimate historical relationship btw the imperialist fantasies of Serbia's elite & the country's inability to develop a functioning democratic regime. Thus democratizing Serbia reqs more than just toppling Vucic. foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/15/s...

New reports tonight of further Russian incursions into Poland & apparently Romania too. This was entirely predictable. The Kremlin believes it is pushing on an open door, it believes NATO is a house of cards. Until they encounter meaningful consequences, they will not stop.

After months of delays, Slovenia has finally imposed its own sanctions and entry ban vs. Bosnian Serb secessionist Dodik. This is significant also because of Dodik's known properties and links to senior political operators in Slovenia. www.klix.ba/vijesti/bih/...

As Russian drones strike Poland, & NATO activates Article IV, Bosnian Serb secessionist remains in Moscow. After meeting Lavrov, he met w/ Shoigu today. Despite persistent attacks on BiH’s peace, evident Russian ties, Croatia & Hungary continue to block EU sanctions vs. Dodik.

Tonight’s Russian incursions into Poland are the most significant attack on a NATO member by a state-based adversary since the attempted Argentine invasion of the Falklands. It will doubtlessly not be the last such Russian action unless there is a severe, collective response.

The events tonight - whatever ridiculous spin the Kremlin offers after the fact - once again show that Russia’s war against Ukraine is, at once, a war against Europe as a whole. We must rid ourselves of the illusion of a “diplomatic solution” with Putin. He must be defeated.

The belief among many in BiH (& relevant diplomats) is Russia will seek to terminate the EUFOR mandate at UNSC in response to this removal. Realistically, EUFOR is a paper tiger; its departure would do little to imperil BiH. But the optics of Russia strongarming the EU would be telling.

Bosnian Serb secessionist Dodik in Moscow yet again w/ Lavrov, appealing to Russia for intervention in the country following his removal from office by the Court of BiH. Moscow, Lavrov says, has called for a UNSC session re: BiH on Oct 31. www.klix.ba/vijesti/bih/...

Bluesky is a superior user experience, there’s no question. But for myself as an area specialist, the biggest barrier to posting more here has been the lack of BSC speakers and specialists. I hope that will change in time, not least because the scale of engagement is better on this site.

3 Part Comedy in Banja Luka: 1. Dodik removed by BiH Crt as RS pres, RS PM Viskovic resigns. 2. Dodik illegally appoints new PM, who w/o authority forms new cabinet, which then illegally voted in by RS assembly. 3. New govt session held but by old cohort w/ Viskovic still seated as PM.

Serbia's strongman Vucic, faced w/ months-long mass anti-govt mobilizations (& increasing regime violence), says he again spoke to Putin about "the situations" in Bosnia & Kosovo. Belgrade simply will not give up its regional imperialist fantasies. www.vijesti.ba/clanak/71382...

Croatia’s PM Plenkovic again praises neo-Nazi crooner Thompson, whose recent Zagreb concert attracted half a million people, making it the largest pro-fascist gathering in Europe since Franco’s death. Plenkovic brags his kids adore Thompson too. www.slobodna-bosna.ba/vijest/43274...

The only violence we have seen during the months-long anti-govt protests in Serbia has been by Aleksandar Vucic's regime goons. Moreover, that Vucic has to insist that "Serbia is a democracy" suggests precisely the opposite. And this too because of his actions. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...

After dragging their feet months earlier, Slovenia again weighing imposing sanctions on Bosnian Serb secessionist Dodik. This follows a series of revelations about Dodik’s luxury properties in the country, and his rumored links to key govt officials in Ljubljana.

BiH elxns authorities call snap elxns for Nov 23 to fill post of RS entity pres, vacated by ouster of secessionist Dodik following his conviction by Court of BiH. His SNSD claims they will boycott the vote but very risky ploy. One credible candidate will set off a real race. General elxns in 2026.

Disturbing report from @occrp.org on efforts of the Vucic regime to strangle out the last remaining independent voices in Serbia. With nary a word from Brussels, Serbia is about to slip into the darkness of one man rule for the second time in less than 30 yrs. www.occrp.org/en/scoop/tel...

Only 25.2% of all taxes collected in BiH come from the RS entity. This speaks not only to growing economic chasm btw FBiH & RS but also population collapse in latter. In 2013, 35% of BiH's pop was in RS; these figs suggest a significant decrease since. www.vijesti.ba/clanak/71260...

Given Croatia’s extraordinarily malign policies towards Bosnia, especially its recent blockade of EU sanctions vs Bosnian Serb secessionist Dodik, Berlin inviting Zagreb to take a more assertive role in the W. Balkans is like asking Hungary to increase its meddling vs Ukraine.

Important the NYT has picked up on what can arguably be considered the largest neo-fascist rally in Europe since the fall of Franco; Nazi sympathizer Thompson’s enormous Zagreb concert, endorsed and attended by the most senior levels of Croatia’s HDZ govt. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/24/w...

"Dodik is too powerful and too volatile to confront, his demands must be accommodated and then he will moderate." That was a central pillar of Western policy in Bosnia for nearly quarter century. Turns out, as many of us said: nope. So many years lost appeasing a paper tiger.

With secessionist Dodik removed from office, as pres of the RS entity, and its PM having resigned, more dramatic news out of BiH's smaller entity: in first 6 mos of this yr, twice as many deaths as births were recorded. Complete societal implosion underway. www.vijesti.ba/clanak/71153...

“The EU and Britain have indulged [Vucic] for too long. Realpolitik has reflected a desire not to see Serbia slip into Russia’s orbit. But this hands-off approach is no longer tenable.” Financial Times ed. board echoes calls for a retooling of Europe’s Serbia policy. www.ft.com/content/c232...

Alongside Hungary, Croatia remains steadfast in its support for Bosnian Serb secessionist Dodik. Following comments by Zagreb’s FM saying Croatia regrets signing the Dayton Agreement, Dodik approvingly cites the same comment, concurs Dayton an “mistake”. Incredible.

As of today, Bosnian Serb secessionist Dodik has been definitively removed from BiH public office. It is not only the most significant political event in the country in decades, it’s also the first time since 1986 (!) that he will be without a publicly funded post in BiH.

The Court of BiH has officially rejected secessionist Dodik’s appeal re: removal of his mandate as entity president following his criminal conviction. His tenure is now irrevocably terminated. The RS entity PM, also a Dodik cadre, has resigned. Major developments in BiH. www.klix.ba/vijesti/bih/...

Following Vladimir Putin’s noble example, I too have decided give up my claim to something that was never mine. As such, please consider this my resignation as Holy Roman Emperor. It’s been real, everyone.

Convicted Bosnian Serb secessionist Dodik continues use all possible avenues to delay his final ejection from public office in BiH. But like Karadzic, Boban et al, he has completely capitulated to the institutional supremacy of the Bosnian state. www.vijesti.ba/clanak/71015...

Every two to three months large segments of the European policy community appear to (re)discover anew the fact that the EU is not a relevant foreign policy actor. Sisyphus and his “Geopolitical Commission”.

“Mujanović…told CNN that Bosnian and European authorities will face a ‘major test’ if Dodik attempts to stay in post. ‘If you can’t deal with the likes of [Dodik]…you really have no business talking about competing with the likes of Xi Jingping or…Putin.’” www.cnn.com/2025/08/09/e...

Thank you to everyone across BiH who made time to speak with me over the past two months. Notwithstanding the certain turbulence ahead, recent events again show that only by insisting on the supremacy of the rule of law is genuine progress possible.

Croatia is dealing with a surge in public neo-Nazi gatherings and displays, spurred by a succession of concerts by the popular far-right rocker Thompson. Debates about legal sanctions are not serious as all of this is endorsed by PM Plenkovic’s ruling HDZ. n1info.hr/vijesti/puck...

Following the termination of his mandate as RS entity president, Bosnian Serb secessionist announces a bizarre referendum in which he will poll the RS public whether they accept his conviction (?!). Comical legal make believe by a jilted, desperate man. www.klix.ba/vijesti/bih/...

BiH’s Central Elxns Commission has unanimously stripped Bosnian Serb secessionist Dodik of his post as president of the RS entity following his conviction by the Court of BiH. His lawyers will appeal the decision to attempt delay calling of snap elxns. www.klix.ba/vijesti/bih/...

The BiH Central Elections Commission (CIK) will meet tomorrow to officially strip secessionist Milorad Dodik of the title of President of the RS entity, and enact an accompanying six year ban on public office, following his conviction by the Court of BiH. www.klix.ba/vijesti/bih/...

Discussing secessionist Dodik’s conviction by Crt of BiH on Hayat: a death blow to his rule, Cvijanovic already preparing ground to depose him, Croatia most fearful now bc it puts their proxy Covic in the BiH judicial crosshairs, RS oppo commendably pragmatic to date. www.hayat.ba/news/article...

These graphics from RSE show that while overall economic-demographic trends in BiH headed in the wrong direction, in the RS entity they’re already on the cusp of complete social implosion; pensioners will shortly overtake the entity’s working pop. Long term financial prospects for Banja Luka bleak.

A frmr senior advisor to Z. Cvijanovic, himself previously a judge, says secessionist Dodik has legally ceased to be the President of BiH’s RS entity following his second degree conviction by the Court of BiH. Cvijanovic has her knives out for her boss. www.klix.ba/vijesti/bih/...

Between Oct 1991 & March 1992, 15,000 Croatian refugees entered NW Bosnia, fleeing Serb nationalist violence. Unbeknownst to them, in March 1991 Croatia’s Tudjman & Serbia’s Milosevic had already discussed BiH’s partition. To achieve this goal, in Oct 1992, Croatia launched its own clandestine…

The West has found a “moderate” Bosnian Serb to topple an entrenched strongman and his extremist governing clique. It’s 1998, and their man is Milorad Dodik. So, what have those pushing Cvijanovic to seize the reins of power in Banja Luka learned from their last such effort?

By upholding secessionist Dodik’s sentence today, the Court of BiH showed courageous commitment to the rule of law. Imperative now BiH police and security services, and their international partners, do their part. Dodik must be made to heel bc we know he will escalate. istraga.ba/apelaciono-v...

Rafting the pristine, frigid waters of the Una River. Northwestern Bosnia is truly a hidden pearl.

Spectacular Ostrožac castle, just outside Cazin in northwestern Bosnia. The original construction of the castle dates to the 13th century, which then served as an Ottoman fort, and the last additions to which took place during the Austro-Hungarian period in the early 1900s.

Croatia has largely obscured its increasingly illiberal political alignments behind a veneer of "European civility". Yet as Zagreb & its sectarian proxies in BiH have no (foreign) policy other than BiH's domination, the truth still slips through at times, as in these recent HDZ-Fidesz-CCP meetings.

The Sefer-Aga Begović mosque in the remote village of Dabrica. Built in 1611, this National Monument of BiH was destroyed by Serb nationalist forces in 1992. Restored in 2012 and now again a site of worship, but also a marker of the resilience of Herzegovina’s Bosniak community.

Half a million people, incl most senior members of the Croatian govt, attended a neo-Nazi concert in Zagreb less than a month ago. Clearly swastika graffiti reappearing is not an isolated issue. It’s downstream from the HDZ govt’s policy of revisionism. n1info.ba/english/news...