Staff Working Paper 1162 by Krishan Shah (BoE), Philip Bunn (BoE) and Marko Melolinna (FCA) explores how firms adjust their required rates of return on investment–known as “hurdle rates”– when monetary policy tightens. www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1161 by Matthieu Chavaz (BIS), David Elliott (BoE) and Win Monroe (Copenhagen) explores how the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) shaped mortgage lending in the UK. www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1160 by Maximilian Huppertz (BoE) combines international trade and weather data spanning the last 190 years to examine how climate change affects global trade costs. www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1159 by Richard Baldwin (IMD), Rebecca Freeman (BoE) & Angelos Theodorakopoulos (Aston) develops a toolkit for analysing how global shocks affect the geographical and functional distribution of GSCs at the sub-national level. 👉 www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/...

Staff Working Paper 1158 by A Rajan (BoE), F Rodriguez-Tous (Bayes) & M Salgado-Moreno (BoE) studies how lenders adjust the mix of mortgage products in response to changes in monetary policy. 👉 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In today’s Bank Underground post, Katherine Blood (BoE) outlines a new measure for tracking the ownership of UK commercial real estate (CRE) by drawing on granular transaction-level and fund-level data. Read more here:🔗 bankunderground.co.uk/2025/12/11/w...

Staff Working Paper 1157 by Eduardo Maqui (BoE), Márcia Silva-Pereira (Bank of Portugal/Nova SBE) and Nicholas Vause (BoE) explores how bond financing conditions affect economic activity in the UK. www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1156 by Manuel Gloria (BoE) and Chiara Punzo (BoE) explore how NBFIs influence monetary policy transmission with a model of state-dependent bank capital requirements. www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In a recent Bank Underground post, C Herler & P Schnattinger (BoE) examine the effect of inflation uncertainty on how households make financial decisions, drawing from an experiment that disentangles inflation uncertainty from inflation expectations. 🔗 bankunderground.co.uk/2025/12/04/h...

The recent inflationary episode was shaped unexpected demand surges and supply constraints. Staff Working Paper 1155 by J Chan (BoE), S Diz (CB Paraguay) & D Kanngiesser explores the effect of these dynamics by adding realistic frictions into an NK model. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1154 by Gerardo Ferrara (BoE) and Helene Hall (Harvard) about how dealer–client relationships in the FX derivatives market shape trading outcomes—especially under stress. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1153 by DRodrigues (UQAM) & T Willems (BoE) outline a cost-of-carry channel of monetary policy transmission, where higher policy rates raise the opportunity cost of holding inventories, incentivizing firms to reduce stockpiles. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1152 by Jenny Chan (BoE), Sebastian Ellingsen (Bristol), and Helen Simpson (Bristol) provides a synthesis of recent contributions that examine trends in regional income gaps and why these persist today. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In today’s Bank Underground post, Tuli Saha (BoE) and Alexandra Varadi (BoE) explore how household debt shapes the transmission of interest rates to spending and mortgage defaults. 🔗 bankunderground.co.uk/2025/11/20/t...

📢 #CallForPapers 📢 Submissions are now welcome for the Bank of England’s 2026 BEAR #conference on “The Interconnected World” 📆 7-8 May 2026 📍 London, Bank of England 📆 Submission deadline: 15 February 2026 👉 Submit here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/events/2026/... (1/4)

🧵 How do global supply chains shape our economy? Rebecca Freeman (BoE) shared insights on this topic at the OECD event “Launch of the new vintage of OECD’s Inter‑Country Input‑Output (ICIO) tables and Trade in Value Added (TiVA) database | Measuring the Global Economy”. (1/3)

In our latest Bank Underground post, Iulia Bucur (BoE) & Ed Hill (BoE) explore how LLMs can be applied to central bank reports—including the BoE’s Monetary Policy Reports & the BoJ’s Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices—to analyse sentiment over time.🔗 bankunderground.co.uk/2025/11/13/a...

Staff Working Paper 1151 by J Peydro (LUISS, EIEF), F Rodriguez-Tous (Bayes), J Tripathy (BoE), & A Uluc (BoE) provides a synthesis of the evidence on the transmission of borrower-based macroprudential tools across jurisdictions. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In our latest Bank Underground post, Arno Hantzsche (BoE) and Harriet Jeanes (BoE) outline a new model that decomposes movements in house prices across contributions from key economic drivers. Real household income key for explaining house price growth. 🔗 bankunderground.co.uk/2025/11/13/t...

Staff Working Paper 1150 by M Buckmann, Q Anh Nguyen & E Hill (BoE) evaluate LLMs’ ability to reproduce economic and financial statistics & find that examining their internal representations is more effective than relying on their textual response. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1149 by G Covi, M Froemel, D Reinhardt & N Wegner (BoE) examines how banks respond to transition risk linked to the shift towards a low-carbon economy. Finds stricter climate policies reduce banks’ exposure to transition risk. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

📢 Applications are open for our 12-week PhD Internship at the BoE! Are you a PhD student interested in conducting innovative, policy-relevant research & finding out what it is like to work in a policy institution? 📍 London, Leeds 📅 Deadline: 19 Jan 26 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/careers/rese...

📣 Registrations are now open for the “Understanding Business Conditions, Expectations & Uncertainty” conference organised by Phil Bunn (BoE) & Paul Mizen (King’s) 📆 17 Nov 📍 King's Business School 🎙 Confirmed speakers include Catherine Mann (BoE) 👉 Register: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/understand...

Staff Working Paper 1148 by M Balgova (BoE), T Tekleselassie (Wellesley), L Hensel (Peking Uni) & M Witte (VU Amsterdam) study the causes and the consequences of firms omitting wage information from job adverts via a field experiment with real vacancies. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1147 by B Tracey (BoE) & N van Horen (BoE) shows FTB home purchases rose sharply after 2013 when the deposit requirement was reduced from 10% to 5% by HTB. Gains were concentrated among FTBs unlikely to have relied on family support. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1146 by Ludovica Ambrosino (LBS), Jenny Chan (BoE) & Silvana Tenreyro (LSE) examines how trade fragmentation affects inflationary pressures. Paper develops a model to capture both supply & demand-side effects of trade fragmentation. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

🧵 We recently published two new Macro Technical Papers (MTPs). ICYMI here are the details... (1/4)

Staff Working Paper 1145 by C Canon Salazar (BoE), E Gerba (BoE) & J Barunik (Charlse) explore how frictions in funding market frictions shape bond prices & liquidity. Find dealer market power and interconnections distort repo pricing & market liquidity 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1144 by M Buckmann (BoE) & G Potjagailo (BoE) discusses how economic theory can be integrated into machine learning methods to address “black box” concerns and still harness their predictive power in forecasting & policy analysis. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1143 by M Buckmann (BoE), G Potjagailo (BoE) & P Schnattinger (BoE) examines the drivers of post-pandemic inflation via a structured, interpretable ML model that provides insights into the non-linear sources of inflation dynamics. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1142 by M Chen (Warwick), R Cont (Oxford), A Joseph (BoE), M Kumhof (BoE), X Pan (Berkeley), W Xiong (Oxford) & X Zhou (RBA) illustrates how an “artificially intelligent” (AI) household can be embedded within standard macro models 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1141 by Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi (BoE), Andrea Ferrero (Oxford) and Shangshang Li (Liverpool) assess how US monetary policy transmit to other countries through its effect on exchange rates and capital flows…. 🔗 Read the paper here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In today’s Bank Underground post, David Rule (BoE) provides an historical account of the transition from coin to paper currency in Britian. 🔗 Read the post here: bankunderground.co.uk/2025/10/09/w...

In today’s Bank Underground post, Peter Denton (BoE) explores how financial infrastructure could emerge as a governance tool for autonomous AI systems. 🔗 Read the post here: bankunderground.co.uk/2025/09/25/c...

Mike Knight (BoE) updated his April Bank Underground post that motivated the need for a benchmark global carbon price to support climate risk metrics. 🔗 Read the post here: bankunderground.co.uk/2025/04/17/a...

In today’s BU post, Utkarsh Somaiya (BoE), Caspar Siegert (BoE) & Benjamin Kingsmore (BoE) examine the effectiveness of some potential central bank tools that are frequently discussed as ways in which central banks could support a transition to net zero. 🔗 bankunderground.co.uk/2025/09/19/t...

In today’s Bank Underground post, Rhiannon Sowerbutts (BoE) develops a new measure of regulatory and supervisory independence, and examines its relationship with financial stability. 🔗 Read the post here: bankunderground.co.uk/2025/09/04/r...

Staff Working Paper 1140 by Giovanni Covi (BoE) and Tihana Škrinjarić (BoE) develops a stochastic balance sheet banking model to capture correlated solvency–liquidity risks, contagion channels, and systemic vulnerabilities.🔗Read the paper here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In today’s Bank Underground post, Lewis Holden (BoE) shows that differences in financed emissions reflect which activities and exposures are included, not data quality, and outlines how these metrics should be used in practice. 🔗Read the post here: bankunderground.co.uk/2025/08/28/s...

Staff Working Paper 1139 by Daniel Ostry (BoE), Simon Lloyd (BoE) and Giancarlo Corsetti (EUI) constructs a new tariff-shock database to study how the exchange rate response depends on retaliation. 🔗 Read the paper here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In today’s Bank Underground post, Mohammed Gharbawi (BoE) considers the case where AGI may emerge from decentralised, interacting AI agents, and explores the implications for decision-making, risk management, market dynamics, and governance. 🔗Read the post here: bankunderground.co.uk/2025/08/21/t...

📣 📣 📣 Registration now open for the Bank of England – EABCN conference: Can Heterogeneous Agent Models Be Useful for Central Bankers? How? cepr.org/events/eabcn... 📆 22 Sep📍 Bank of England 🎙Keynote: Adrien Auclert (Stanford University, CEPR) 🎙Register by 10 Sep: forms.office.com/e/84Jr82qvsw

Staff Working Paper 1138 by Krishan Shah (BoE), Philip Bunn (BoE) and Jonathan Haskel (Imperial) examines the effect of the 2022-23 tightening cycle on UK firms’ borrowing costs and investment. 🔗 Read the paper here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1137 by Tim Willems (BoE) and Thomas Norman (Oxford) examines the importance of fiscal-monetary interactions for inflation outcomes via a game-theoretic approach. 🔗 Read the paper here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In today’s Bank Underground post, Philippe Bracke (BoE), Matt Everitt (BoE), Martina Fazio (BoE) and Alexandra Varadi (BoE) explore how UK mortgagors adjusted their spending patterns during the period of interest rate increases that began in late 2021. 🔗 bankunderground.co.uk/2025/07/24/w...

🧵 We recently published our third Macro Technical Paper (MPT) by David Brignone (BoE) and Michele Piffer (BoE), which outlines a structural VAR model for the UK economy. 📖 Read here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/macro-techni... 1/3

Staff Working Paper 1135 by Michael Bordo (Rutgers), Oliver Bush (BoE) & Ryland Thomas (BoE) reconsiders the historical & empirical record of inflation in the UK to determine the underlying causes of the Great Inflation of the 1960s & 1970s. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In today’s Bank Underground post, Charlie Warburton (Cambridge) and James Brookes (BoE) develop a new set of readability metrics, and revisit the relationship between central bank communication readability and market volatility. 🔗 Read the post here: bankunderground.co.uk/2025/07/17/m...

Staff Working Paper 1134 by Mahmoud Fatouh (BoE), Simone Giansante (Palermo) & Meryem Duygun (Nottingham), examines the real economy impact of the Bank of England’s QE operations through the corporate bonds market between 2009 and 2021. 🔗 Read here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In today’s Bank Underground post, Hannah Copeland (BoE), Lennart Brandt (BoE), Natalie Burr (BoE) and Boromeus Wanengkirtyo (BoE) examine the impact of a tighter carbon pricing regime on UK energy prices and inflation. 🔗 Read the post here: bankunderground.co.uk/2025/07/08/w...