Staff Working Paper 1151 by J Peydro (LUISS, EIEF), F Rodriguez-Tous (Bayes), J Tripathy (BoE), & A Uluc (BoE) provides a synthesis of the evidence on the transmission of borrower-based macroprudential tools across jurisdictions. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In our latest Bank Underground post, Arno Hantzsche (BoE) and Harriet Jeanes (BoE) outline a new model that decomposes movements in house prices across contributions from key economic drivers. Real household income key for explaining house price growth. 🔗 bankunderground.co.uk/2025/11/13/t...

Staff Working Paper 1150 by M Buckmann, Q Anh Nguyen & E Hill (BoE) evaluate LLMs’ ability to reproduce economic and financial statistics & find that examining their internal representations is more effective than relying on their textual response. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1149 by G Covi, M Froemel, D Reinhardt & N Wegner (BoE) examines how banks respond to transition risk linked to the shift towards a low-carbon economy. Finds stricter climate policies reduce banks’ exposure to transition risk. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

📢 Applications are open for our 12-week PhD Internship at the BoE! Are you a PhD student interested in conducting innovative, policy-relevant research & finding out what it is like to work in a policy institution? 📍 London, Leeds 📅 Deadline: 19 Jan 26 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/careers/rese...

📣 Registrations are now open for the “Understanding Business Conditions, Expectations & Uncertainty” conference organised by Phil Bunn (BoE) & Paul Mizen (King’s) 📆 17 Nov 📍 King's Business School 🎙 Confirmed speakers include Catherine Mann (BoE) 👉 Register: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/understand...

Staff Working Paper 1148 by M Balgova (BoE), T Tekleselassie (Wellesley), L Hensel (Peking Uni) & M Witte (VU Amsterdam) study the causes and the consequences of firms omitting wage information from job adverts via a field experiment with real vacancies. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1147 by B Tracey (BoE) & N van Horen (BoE) shows FTB home purchases rose sharply after 2013 when the deposit requirement was reduced from 10% to 5% by HTB. Gains were concentrated among FTBs unlikely to have relied on family support. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1146 by Ludovica Ambrosino (LBS), Jenny Chan (BoE) & Silvana Tenreyro (LSE) examines how trade fragmentation affects inflationary pressures. Paper develops a model to capture both supply & demand-side effects of trade fragmentation. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

🧵 We recently published two new Macro Technical Papers (MTPs). ICYMI here are the details... (1/4)

Staff Working Paper 1145 by C Canon Salazar (BoE), E Gerba (BoE) & J Barunik (Charlse) explore how frictions in funding market frictions shape bond prices & liquidity. Find dealer market power and interconnections distort repo pricing & market liquidity 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1144 by M Buckmann (BoE) & G Potjagailo (BoE) discusses how economic theory can be integrated into machine learning methods to address “black box” concerns and still harness their predictive power in forecasting & policy analysis. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1143 by M Buckmann (BoE), G Potjagailo (BoE) & P Schnattinger (BoE) examines the drivers of post-pandemic inflation via a structured, interpretable ML model that provides insights into the non-linear sources of inflation dynamics. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1142 by M Chen (Warwick), R Cont (Oxford), A Joseph (BoE), M Kumhof (BoE), X Pan (Berkeley), W Xiong (Oxford) & X Zhou (RBA) illustrates how an “artificially intelligent” (AI) household can be embedded within standard macro models 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1141 by Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi (BoE), Andrea Ferrero (Oxford) and Shangshang Li (Liverpool) assess how US monetary policy transmit to other countries through its effect on exchange rates and capital flows…. 🔗 Read the paper here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In today’s Bank Underground post, David Rule (BoE) provides an historical account of the transition from coin to paper currency in Britian. 🔗 Read the post here: bankunderground.co.uk/2025/10/09/w...

In today’s Bank Underground post, Peter Denton (BoE) explores how financial infrastructure could emerge as a governance tool for autonomous AI systems. 🔗 Read the post here: bankunderground.co.uk/2025/09/25/c...

Mike Knight (BoE) updated his April Bank Underground post that motivated the need for a benchmark global carbon price to support climate risk metrics. 🔗 Read the post here: bankunderground.co.uk/2025/04/17/a...

In today’s BU post, Utkarsh Somaiya (BoE), Caspar Siegert (BoE) & Benjamin Kingsmore (BoE) examine the effectiveness of some potential central bank tools that are frequently discussed as ways in which central banks could support a transition to net zero. 🔗 bankunderground.co.uk/2025/09/19/t...

In today’s Bank Underground post, Rhiannon Sowerbutts (BoE) develops a new measure of regulatory and supervisory independence, and examines its relationship with financial stability. 🔗 Read the post here: bankunderground.co.uk/2025/09/04/r...

Staff Working Paper 1140 by Giovanni Covi (BoE) and Tihana Škrinjarić (BoE) develops a stochastic balance sheet banking model to capture correlated solvency–liquidity risks, contagion channels, and systemic vulnerabilities.🔗Read the paper here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In today’s Bank Underground post, Lewis Holden (BoE) shows that differences in financed emissions reflect which activities and exposures are included, not data quality, and outlines how these metrics should be used in practice. 🔗Read the post here: bankunderground.co.uk/2025/08/28/s...

Staff Working Paper 1139 by Daniel Ostry (BoE), Simon Lloyd (BoE) and Giancarlo Corsetti (EUI) constructs a new tariff-shock database to study how the exchange rate response depends on retaliation. 🔗 Read the paper here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In today’s Bank Underground post, Mohammed Gharbawi (BoE) considers the case where AGI may emerge from decentralised, interacting AI agents, and explores the implications for decision-making, risk management, market dynamics, and governance. 🔗Read the post here: bankunderground.co.uk/2025/08/21/t...

📣 📣 📣 Registration now open for the Bank of England – EABCN conference: Can Heterogeneous Agent Models Be Useful for Central Bankers? How? cepr.org/events/eabcn... 📆 22 Sep📍 Bank of England 🎙Keynote: Adrien Auclert (Stanford University, CEPR) 🎙Register by 10 Sep: forms.office.com/e/84Jr82qvsw

Staff Working Paper 1138 by Krishan Shah (BoE), Philip Bunn (BoE) and Jonathan Haskel (Imperial) examines the effect of the 2022-23 tightening cycle on UK firms’ borrowing costs and investment. 🔗 Read the paper here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1137 by Tim Willems (BoE) and Thomas Norman (Oxford) examines the importance of fiscal-monetary interactions for inflation outcomes via a game-theoretic approach. 🔗 Read the paper here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In today’s Bank Underground post, Philippe Bracke (BoE), Matt Everitt (BoE), Martina Fazio (BoE) and Alexandra Varadi (BoE) explore how UK mortgagors adjusted their spending patterns during the period of interest rate increases that began in late 2021. 🔗 bankunderground.co.uk/2025/07/24/w...

🧵 We recently published our third Macro Technical Paper (MPT) by David Brignone (BoE) and Michele Piffer (BoE), which outlines a structural VAR model for the UK economy. 📖 Read here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/macro-techni... 1/3

Staff Working Paper 1135 by Michael Bordo (Rutgers), Oliver Bush (BoE) & Ryland Thomas (BoE) reconsiders the historical & empirical record of inflation in the UK to determine the underlying causes of the Great Inflation of the 1960s & 1970s. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In today’s Bank Underground post, Charlie Warburton (Cambridge) and James Brookes (BoE) develop a new set of readability metrics, and revisit the relationship between central bank communication readability and market volatility. 🔗 Read the post here: bankunderground.co.uk/2025/07/17/m...

Staff Working Paper 1134 by Mahmoud Fatouh (BoE), Simone Giansante (Palermo) & Meryem Duygun (Nottingham), examines the real economy impact of the Bank of England’s QE operations through the corporate bonds market between 2009 and 2021. 🔗 Read here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In today’s Bank Underground post, Hannah Copeland (BoE), Lennart Brandt (BoE), Natalie Burr (BoE) and Boromeus Wanengkirtyo (BoE) examine the impact of a tighter carbon pricing regime on UK energy prices and inflation. 🔗 Read the post here: bankunderground.co.uk/2025/07/08/w...

🎉We’re delighted to share that the paper “Refinancing Cross-subsidies in the UK Mortgage Market” has won the first-place Jensen Prize. Congratulations to the authors J Fisher (Virginia), A Gavazza (LSE), L Liu (Wharton), T Ramadorai (Imperial) & J Tripathy (BoE) www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Staff Working Paper 1133 by Johannes Fischer (Bundesbank), Christoph Herler (BoE) and Philip Schnattinger (BoE) examines the effects of inflation uncertainty on households’ consumption and saving decisions. 🔗 Read the paper here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In today’s Bank Underground post, Julia Giese (BoE) and Jacqueline Koay (BoE) discuss how scenario planning can be adopted by policymakers to navigate uncertainty and unpredictable events. 🔗 Read the post here: bankunderground.co.uk/2025/07/03/o...

Staff Working Paper 1132 by Sara Holttinen (Oxford), Marko Melolinna (FCA) and Marin Froemel (BoE) examines how intangible assets affect a firm’s ability to obtain external debt financing. 🔗 Read the paper here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In our latest BU post, Roger Vicquéry (BoE) & Kevin Hjortshøj (Sciences Po) outline a new global index to measure how fixed the world’s exchange rates are. The index measures the probability that two units of GDP are involved in a fixed FX arrangement. 🔗 bankunderground.co.uk/2025/06/26/h...

🧵We’re excited to launch the Macro Technical Paper (MTP) Series—a key step in our response to Dr. Ben Bernanke’s 2024 review of the Bank’s monetary policy processes. Links to the first two MTPs are in the comments. 1/3

Staff Working Paper 1130 by Mishel Ghassibe (UPF/BSE), Boromeus Wanengkirtyo (BoE) & Ivan Yotzov (BoE) examines whether firms engage in “intertemporal pass-through”, where their desired prices respond to changes in expected future marginal costs. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

🎉 We’re delighted to share that Misa Tanaka, Head of Research at the Bank of England, has been appointed the next UK WEN Chair. Congratulations, Misa! 👏

📢 We’re hiring two Research Economist in the Current Economic Conditions Division, Bank of England 📍 Location: London or Leeds 📅 Apply by: 4 July 2025 🔗 Full details: eoff.fa.em1.ukg.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...

Staff Working Paper 1129 by Marco D’Amico (Uppsala) and Martina Fazio (BoE) uses nearly 50 years of administrative-quality data to study how business cycle fluctuations affect the distribution of labour income growth. 🔗 Read the paper here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Staff Working Paper 1124 by Manuel Muñoz (BoE) and Frank Smets (BIS) develops a quantitative macro-banking model to explore how countercyclical capital buffers should be optimally managed over the business cycle. 🔗 Read the paper here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In our latest Bank Underground post, Jamie Waddell (BoE) and Danny Walker (BoE) examine whether an increase in mortgage supply causes a change in UK home ownership. 🔗 Read the post here: bankunderground.co.uk/2025/06/05/m...

📣 📣 📣 Registrations are now open for the 4th “ABM4Policy” Agent-Based Modelling for Policy workshop, co-organised by the ECB, BoE and others. 📆 26-27 June 2025 📍 ECB, Frankfurt am Main Register here: www.ecb.europa.eu/press/confer...

👀 New paper alert! 📄 “Unlocking New Methods to Estimate Country-Specific Effects & Trade Elasticities With the Structural Gravity Model” 🖋️ By Freeman (BoE), Larch (Bayreuth), Theodorakopoulos (Aston) & Yotov (Drexel) 🧠 Just out in J. Applied Econometrics! 🔗 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

📣 📣 📣 Registrations are now open for the BoE’s Centre for Central Banking Studies conference “Transforming monetary policy – How should we think about uncertainty and risks?” 📆 25-26 June 2025 📍 A hybrid event at Bank of England Register here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/events/2025/...

In our latest Bank Underground post, Miruna-Daniela Ivan (BoE) draws on the Bank of England’s Sterling Money Market Data to explore the extent of collateral re-use in the gilt repo market. 🔗 Read the post here: bankunderground.co.uk/2025/05/29/c...

Staff Working Paper 1127 by Marcus Buckmann (BoE) and Ed Hill (BoE) outlines a simple method using small open-source generative language models to conduct text classification on a laptop that can outperform larger commercial models. 🔗 Read the paper here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...