Updated local funding measure tracking. Since election night, one measure has changed from failing to passing. Now, 19 of 30 local funding measures are passing.

The share of the total Democratic vote for governor in the counties won by Tina Kotek: 1930 to 2022. Washington County is darker orange.

Percent of veterans by Oregon House of Representatives district

President Trump's approval ratings from the big poll aggregators. A clear turn for the worse since the shutdown.

The partisan changes in consumer sentiment this month are more the result of declines in perceptions of current conditions (top) than expectations about the future (bottom). On all these measures, Independents now look much more like Democrats than Republicans.

The partisan changes in consumer sentiment this month are more the result of declines in perceptions of current conditions (top) than expectations about the future (bottom). On all these measures, Independents now look much more like Democrats than Republicans.

Updated consumer sentiment numbers from the University of Michigan are out today. Here are the monthly changes by party. Democrat 33.2 (-2,7) Independent 45.0 (-4.5) Republican 91.9 (-5.3)

Oregon's November registration totals are out today from the Secretary of State. Here are the monthly changes by party. Total +6,917 Non-affiliated +6,268 Ind. Party of Oregon +638 Other +232 Republican -19 Democrat -202

By my count, 18 of 30 local funding measures in Oregon are passing as of election night.

Since 1983, the president's party has lost the VA governor's election 10 of 11 times.

The Portland parks levy is currently passing with 53% yes. In 2020, it passed with 64% yes. Here are precinct comparisons for the current results (left) vs. 2020 (right).

The Major Cities Chiefs Association today released its violent crime comparisons for the first three quarters of 2025 vs. 2024. Violent crime declined in most cities. It declined 5% in Portland.

Some recent history for those watching the Portland parks levy vote. Support for local tax measures and progressive candidates and issues has increased from the first ballot counts to the final results.

Percent of households receiving food stamps/Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) by Oregon House of Representatives district (2025)

Precinct results for the 2020 Portland parks levy. An increase of the parks levy is on the ballot this election.

Today, the Portland Police Bureau released the 2025 Q3 traffic stop report. PPB recorded 5,705 traffic stops. 48% of stops were of drivers of color. (Larger images to follow)

New from @pewresearch.org: the share of Americans who agree with the policy positions of Democrats and Republicans. Republicans' greatest advantages are crime and immigration. Democrats' greatest advantages are health care and the environment/climate. They are about even on the economy.

Job announcement. DHM Research has an opening for a director/vice president to lead strategic partnerships in Washington state. More here: dhmresearch.com/wp-content/u...

Democratic gubernatorial vote in Oregon counties: 1930 - 2022

Since 1966, a higher percentage of Oregon Republicans have voted in midterms than Democrats—except in 2018.

In the 2022 gubernatorial election, Betsy Johnson received more votes and a larger vote share in counties won by Christine Drazan than in counties won by Tina Kotek.

Winning vote share in Oregon gubernatorial elections: 1858 - 2022

For comparison, here are DHM Research results from a September survey. Oregonians rate their personal financial situations better than the state's economic conditions. Dems feel better about Oregon's economy, while Reps feel better about their finances. NAVs are the worst off.

Updated consumer sentiment numbers from the University of Michigan are out today. Here are the monthly changes by party. Democrat 35.9 (-4.8) Independent 49.5 (-2.2) Republican 97.2 (+4.8)

Percent of households receiving food stamps/Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) by Oregon House of Representatives district (2025)

Via @pewresearch.org, a growing share of Americans view legal sports betting as bad for society and sports.

New from @gallup.com, a big drop in Republicans' approval of Congress's job performance. Now at 33%. This is down 19 points from September and 30 points from its high in March.

Last month, DHM Research asked Oregonians if it is harder for young people to succeed today than it was for their parents' generation. Overall, 72% of Oregonians agreed. 56% of 18-29 year olds "strongly" agreed compared to 20% of those ages 65+.

As of today, 45 Oregon House of Representatives candidates have filed for next year's primary elections. There are 23 Republicans and 22 Democrats. 26 districts do not yet have filed candidates.

Updated trend for the percentage of Oregonians who say the state is headed in the right direction. Annual average from 1997 to 2025 by party.

Percentage of "yes" votes on Oregon referendum ballot measures

I attempted to estimate the percentage of Oregon students in 9th to 12th grade who participate in school sports. Here are the trends for fall, winter, and spring sports over the last decade.

From a June 2024 DHM Research survey of Oregonians.

Party ratings of current economic conditions (left) vs. future expectations (right). Via the University of Michigan survey of consumers.

New consumer sentiment numbers are out today from the University of Michigan. Here are the changes by party. Democrat 36.3 (-4.4) Independent 53.9 (+2.2) Republican 98.2 (+5.8)

In a recent survey, DHM Research asked Oregonians about the ways they engage with others, or not. % who seldom or never do the following: -27% have friends, family, or neighbors over -57% do volunteer work -66% attend religious service -76% attend events about politics

Oregon's October registration totals are out today from the Secretary of State. Here are the monthly changes by party. Total +6,750 Non-affiliated +8,158 Ind. Party of Oregon +582 Republican +223 Other +164 Democrat -2,377

I can't help but think about the over-analysis of Glenn Youngkin in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. Then the theory was his focus on schools and "critical race theory." Yet in 9 of the last 10 elections, the party opposite the president has won. Thermostatic public opinion explains a lot.

Maybe a momentary glitch, but this is what I'm (not) getting from the Census website.

. DHM Research recently asked Oregonians if they believe people can be trusted or if you can't be too careful dealing with people. Most (56%) said you can't be too careful. The least trusting Oregonians are young people and those with less education and lower incomes.

This month, DHM Research surveyed Oregonians about their friends. 11% of Oregonians reported having zero close friends, and 37% reported having two or fewer. The typical Oregonian would like to have more close friends than they currently do.

DHM Research recently worked with the Oregon Patient Safety Commission to measure how often Oregonians experience medical errors. Links to the report below. oregoncapitalchronicle.com/briefs/healt...

Gallup released its monthly update on what Americans say is the most important problem facing the country. Economic 24% (-10, and lowest since Jan '22) Gov't/poor leadership 28% (+4) Immigration 14% (--) Unifying the county 10% (+4) ... Elections 4% (-1) Abortion <1% (-1) Climate <1% (-1)

In DHM Research's September survey, we asked Oregonians when the last time they held a baby was. For 59% it's been more than a year.

. DHM Research has found these same beliefs in Oregon.

Via @gallup.com, Americans' rating of the quality of K-12 education in the United States reached a new low. Yet, parents' satisfaction with the quality of education for their own children remains high and steady.

By my count, there are 25 local funding measures on Oregon ballots for the November election. That's a low number, even for special election years.

From an April 2025 DHM Research survey of Oregonians. Which political party in Oregon do you trust more to handle the following issue: free speech Democratic Party: 49% Republican Party 35% Don't know 16%

Via @gallup.com, Americans' perception of the importance of a college education (left) has diminished at the same time K-12 enrollment is on the decline (right).

Oregonians report they aren't a very trusting lot, especially those who are younger. Fewer than half (44%) of Oregonians say people can almost always/usually be trusted, while 56% say they usually/can't be too careful in dealing with people. For those 18-29, it's 22% vs. 78%.