Trump: “I did not want to be … Hoover”. No Hoover depression in sight, but Trump following Biden’s vibecession path to loss for incumbent party in 2028. Difficult to imagine Trump and his team changing course. economystupid.substack.com/p/trump-im-t...

Claudia Sahm warns that Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) must be "handled with care", but is still relevant despite Trump economist Kevin Hassett dissing ICS as "worthless". ICS up this month, but US still in vibecession with ICS down -24% since Jan. 2025. economystupid.substack.com/p/vibes-stil...

Bezos says "more mature, disciplined" Trump deserves "credit where credit is due". I credit President with plunging US into economic slough of despond -- vibecession. economystupid.substack.com/p/trump-plun...

Phillips O’Brien's source says Trump wants Donald Jr. to inherit the presidency. 1st step: Bezos bankrolls primevideo Apprentice reboot starring Donald Jr. Junior Donald won’t be able to move into the White House carrying Trump Senior’s economic baggage. economystupid.substack.com/p/economy-to...

Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) low, but NOT all-time low. Change in survey method in 2024 means June 2022 ICS = 50 still all-time low after April 2026 ICS reported as 47.6 adjusted on apples v. apples basis allowing for change in survey method. economystupid.substack.com/p/consumer-s...

Epic fail: Trump’s war and the US economy. Economic vibes down -11% in April. Even Republicans losing heart. Dean Baker points out consumer spending already slowing pre-war. Will US slide from vibecession into recession? economystupid.substack.com/p/epic-fail-...

Trump is winning Iran war on all fronts but one – the gas pump. Gas prices up +33%. Consumer sentiment down -6%. Will vibecession turn into recession? Republican Senate candidate Tafoya’s prescription: “take one less trip to Starbucks”. economystupid.substack.com/p/us-gas-pri...

BREAKING NEWS! Secretary Rubio announces offer by President Rufus T. Firefly to deploy Freedonia’s schooner fleet to clear Strait of Hormuz. Trump declines saying: “USA doesn’t need any help from Marxists.” 64.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lus4e...

Gas prices sending economic vibes down. Will Trump’s war on Iran push the US economy over the edge from vibecession to recession? economystupid.substack.com/p/gas-prices...

State of the US economy: Unusually calm. Not like Trump. He inherited best economy since Ike in 1953. Misery index a bit better 1 year into Trump’s 2nd term. Yet, US spent 2025 in vibecession with economic sentiment down -24% since Trump’s inauguration. economystupid.substack.com/p/state-of-t...

Trump’s vibecession done? Has vibecovery begun? Vibes still down -23% since Jan. 2025 inauguration. 23% fall still fits my vibecession definition. Republican win in 2028 election with vibes as low now would be unpresidented = unprecedented in Trump lingo. economystupid.substack.com/p/trumps-vib...

Trump has worst 1st year in history of vibes. Consumer sentiment down -26% over past year. Worse than -25% to start Nixon’s 2nd term. economystupid.substack.com/p/trump-has-...

Arresting Maduro = "sugar high" for Trump support, says Jonathan Lemire in The Atlantic. Past precedents show no lasting impact on vibes from US military victories over small countries. economystupid.substack.com/p/will-venez...

Trump's winter of discontent: Vibecession lingers. December Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) remains down -27% since Trump took office in January. Trump is gaslighting himself insisting “now we have normal inflation”. economystupid.substack.com/p/trumps-win...

Is Trump lying saying “we have no inflation”? Not guilty of perjury (even if he were under oath), but he's guilty of gaslighting himself. open.substack.com/pub/economys...

Fed NOT flying blind setting interest rate without economic data during government shutdown. Fed like pilot flying Instrument Flight Rules in low visibility. Chicago Fed nowcast unemployment rate = 4.35% in October. Fed will cut interest rate this week. economystupid.substack.com/p/employment...

TRUMP INFLATION UP! vibes down. 3% inflation in September same annual rate as January when Trump posted BIDEN INFLATION UP! Government shutdown helps Trump by taking inflation out of the news with no more inflation reports until shutdown ends. open.substack.com/pub/economys...

Today’s CPI report postponed until the 27th. Cleveland Fed, best source of inflation data until then, nowcasting annual inflation back up to 3%. TRUMP INFLATION UP! in keeping with Trump posting BIDEN INFLATION UP! after January CPI report. economystupid.substack.com/p/consumer-p...

Dr. EJ Antoni's tweets insulting Comey, Harris and Krugman qualify him as MAGA hero. But, Antoni's tweet making fun of Senator McCain on the day he died will disqualify him from Senate confirmation as Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner. economystupid.substack.com/p/trumps-bls...

20 years after 1st vibecession caused by Katrina in 2005, another vibecession is under way in 2025. Trump’s “We have no inflation” may turn out as wrong as GW Bush’s “Brownie, you’re doing a heckuva job.” open.substack.com/pub/economys...

Incoming Labor Stats Commissioner Antoni’s skill is cherry-picking numbers to make Republicans look good and Democrats look bad. BLS press releases on inflation and jobs will be Trump propaganda under Dr. Antoni. economystupid.substack.com/p/new-bls-co...

Dueling economic forecasts are an intramural cage match between Harvard Professor Summers v. Harvard PhD and Trump economist Miran. I expect a US recession based on a simple decision criterion — Summers is a more credible economist than Miran. economystupid.substack.com/p/will-reces...

Will Mideast war tip US into recession? Oil and gasoline price spikes played part in 1973, 1980, 1990 recessions. Will 2025 be “déjà vu all over again”? economystupid.substack.com/p/will-midea...

Trump accused Biden of leaving a “stone cold dead” economy. (May 28) His report of US economy’s death was greatly exaggerated. Biden passed on best misery index to new president since 1953. I give Trump benefit of my doubt. He doesn’t know enough about the economy to be accused of a deliberate lie.

Who has the better track record as an economist – Kyla Scanlon (BA, Western Kentucky) or Trump’s Chair of Council of Economic Advisers Stephen Miran (PhD, Harvard)? economystupid.substack.com/p/best-econo...

Trump's first 100 days: Calm before economic storm. US inflation and job market numbers good in April, but falling vibes signal trouble ahead. Economy teetering on edge of vibecession. Will it be just a vibecession or recession? open.substack.com/pub/economys...

Consumers in vibecession. Recession next? Index of Consumer Sentiment down-29% since January when Trump returned to White House. Bigliest consumer vibe dive on record over 3 months. economystupid.substack.com/p/consumers-...

Et tu, vibes? Ides of March for US economy. Too soon to call recession, but we are in vibecession territory at very least. open.substack.com/pub/economys...

RFK Jr.: "It's not unusual ... measles every year". It is unusual to say “go wild on health”. It is unusual to put a crank in charge. But, when I see RFK dissing measles risk, It's not unusual to see me cry. I hope no more die. open.substack.com/pub/economys...

Conference Board reports Expectations Index “below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession”. Signal has not been reliable in recent years. Too soon to tell if recession on way. But, Trump’s big mouth could stall US economy by sapping confidence economystupid.substack.com/p/falling-ec...

Trump’s honeymoon gone bad like Liz Taylor marriage. Index of Consumer Sentiment down 9% wiping out post-election economic vibes honeymoon. open.substack.com/pub/economys...

Lucky Trump inherits best misery index for new president since Ike 1953. But, economic vibes still low. Republicans will win in 2028 only if Trump keeps US economy humming. What are chances demented Trump will be a good economic manager? economystupid.substack.com/p/lucky-trum...

Jeff Bezos after the election: “he (Trump) is calmer than he was the first time” Who agrees with Bezos? economystupid.substack.com/p/bezos-calm...

Federal Reserve a bit player until Carter picked Volcker -- hinge moment in US economic history. Inflation ended Carter’s presidency, yet he appointed the man who ended high inflation. Brad DeLong is wrong that Volcker got job due to White House bumbling. economystupid.substack.com/p/fed-a-bit-...