I posted a machine translation of recently-released footage of the trial of Xu Qinxian, the 38th Group Army Commander who balked at orders to use force in 1989. The footage provides new insight into a crucial episode in the history of China and the CCP. markparkeryoung.substack.com/p/the-trial-...

Xi's military purges and reorganizations have reinforced his control over the PLA at the expense of its operational capabilities. I wrote about the new Central Military Commission and what it indicates about Xi's priorities and willingness to use force: markparkeryoung.substack.com/p/a-central-...

Delighted that Joseph Torigian (@josephtorigian.bsky.social) will be joining us in Glasgow for our Scottish Centre for China Research seminar series. Join us! Wed 8 Oct 4pm UK time To join online register via link at: www.gla.ac.uk/research/az/...

It's a testament to the intensity of recent PLA purges that another wave came and went with little attention from English-langauge media, but the latest moves show the depth of disarray engulfing the high command. My take on what the latest moves mean: markparkeryoung.net/posts/fresh-...

Hello everyone, I am now also on Substack. Bit of an experiment for me, but I suspect people who follow me might like that format better: substack.com/@dakekang

@jonathonpsine.bsky.social has written an absolutely phenomenal review of Dan Wang's "Breakneck." This is one of my favorite single essays about China today. www.cogitations.co/p/litigation...

Fun to work with Jon Czin on this for Foreign Affairs: "The moves demonstrate his continued dissatisfaction with the PLA’s high command and can be seen as part of an ongoing process of achieving his larger goals of bending the military to his will." x.com/BrookingsFP/...

This two part interview about Xi Zhongxun is a fantastic vantage point on elite politics in China. One point by Joseph that is as true today as ever: "...how far a purge goes, who’s included in the purge, [and] how the purge is characterized, is an art form that is shaped by a myriad of different

Facing U.S. tariffs, China’s exports to the U.S. are down—while exports to Southeast Asia are up. Is that trade diversion and potential transshipment? My estimate: at most 34% of the increased PRC exports to SE Asia in Q2 could reflect trade diverted from the United States.

I was going to write something about why certain types of "Xi Jinping is facing pushback" rumors are fundamentally flawed, but it's basically covered in the "faulty factionalism" section of this essay from a couple years ago: asiasociety.org/policy-insti...

China's military high command is in the midst of extraordinary upheaval, and Xi Jinping has purged half the uniformed members of the Central Military Commission little more than two years after choosing them. My deep dive on why it's happening and what it means: markparkeryoung.net/posts/turmoi...

I would interpret the US tariff exemptions primarily as an attempt to mitigate the impact on electronics and consumers more than as a signal of a US-China deal. The exempted categories cover about 22% of US imports from China. content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd...

This is an interesting account of how Volt Typhoon came up in a bilateral cyber dialog. I would be wary of assuming that Wang's comments here reflected a high level decision in Beijing to signal Washington. I'm a bit skeptical because Beijing probably did not view www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

Was getting a spike in traffic on the other site for this simple tool, so reposting here. In case you have a need for maps like these... www.mapspam.net/MetOrtho.html

Excellent indictment of science reporting at South China Morning Post by @zichen.bsky.social. My approach is to read SCMP reporting on Chinese politics, even given the severe constraints on it, but disregard all science reports, including on cybersecurity. www.pekingnology.com/p/some-troub...

Which US industries are most exposed to the China market? Looking at US majority-owned foreign affiliates, the answer is wholesale trade, computers & electronics, chemicals & pharma, autos, and semiconductors. This could matter for US-China talks and potential PRC retaliation to US tariffs.

Taiwan is nervous. With good reason. Jude Blanchette and I discuss in our new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...

Han Dynasty and Roman Empire. We like to say "all roads lead to Rome" but it is much more accurate to say "all roads lead to Chang'an." Han Dynasty road network was radial, whereas the Roman road network was mesh-like.

Hundreds of gigabytes of data from an unsecured server expose how China is using artificial intelligence to automate the surveillance of online discourse, with a sophisticated classification system prioritizing military, social, and political content. chinamediaproject.org/2025/03/24/c...

Outstanding interview with a young censor.

Big day for Chinese threat intel MSS outs 4 alleged members of Taiwan's Information, Communications & Electronic Force Command, links them to cyber attacks QiAnXin & Antiy release 2 separate reports on Taiwan-linked APT-Q-20/APT-C-01/GreenSpot/PoisonVine 🧵w/ links & details

Thinking about maritime security? Needs more maps... www.state.gov/g7-foreign-m...

I'll be teaching a 6-week graduate-level night course at Georgetown University in May-June called Cyber Operations. We'll look at ways that nations project power in cyberspace - their motives, methods, and impact. Looking forward to meeting students in the School of Foreign Service master's program

Predictions that AI could undermine the Chinese government's societal monitoring and control remind me of predictions in the 90s that the internet would do the same thing. I think it'll very likely be the opposite.

One of the best discussions of the uneven impact of AI on the future of warfare that I've heard/read.

Fascinating article. The CCP will have to grapple with how to manage the increasingly strong emotional attachments people will form with AI systems, as is the case for every government and society. I think there are both risks and opportunities from Beijing's point of view.

China's retaliation to the new 20% US tariffs: - 10-15% tariffs on US ag imports - 10 US firms on Unreliable Entities List - 15 US firms on export control list (Illumina maybe most affected) - No product-specific export controls Less than proportional response.

The number of companies providing vulnerabilities to China’s MSS has ballooned to 324, up from 151 in 2023! Most new companies are currently Tier 3. China’s ecosystem of vuln suppliers is frothy.

One of the things I’ve come to appreciate being with privacy folks this week is how unique Signal is at this moment. I know it’s maybe a cliche at this point, but it needs to be said.

Sharing a new piece out today in China Leadership Monitor on the changing role of China's Ministry of State Security: www.prcleader.org/post/counter...

Researchers analyzed a memory disclosure vulnerability in the Great Firewall for two years. I'm always impressed at the technical ingenuity of researchers who probe the architecture of this system. gfw.report/publications...

Great analysis of the downfall of Miao Hua, who has been seen as one of Xi's top allies in the PLA. Written by Jon Czin www.brookings.edu/articles/tho...

For China econ/tech/ideology watchers: Emily Jin (@emilyjin.bsky.social) has joined bluesky

For China watchers: @jonathonpsine.bsky.social has joined bluesky

Leaked TopSec tooling. A corruption scandal at the Shanghai State-owned Asset Supervision and Administration Commission. What more could you want from our latest @sentinelone.com blogpost? 👇 1/

Two narratives about China's economy: - Macro weakness - Technological and industrial strength They're both true! How? The "new economy" is a small share of the overall economy. I discuss in a new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...

Today, Google Threat Intelligence is alerting the community to increasing efforts from several Russia state-aligned threat actors (GRU, FSB, etc.) to compromise Signal Messenger accounts. cloud.google.com/blog/topics/...

PSA: the Internet Archive's Chrome extension helps users find archived copies of websites that have been taken down or modified chrome.google.com/webstore/det...

If you're going to write about a court case 🙏 please embed the court documents in your story. As a freelancer, I pay to download documents from Pacer out of my own pocket and include them in stories so readers (including other journos) can easily have them. Why don't large media companies do this?

New court documents shed light on what a 25-year-old DOGE worker named Marko Elez did inside Treasury payment systems, including which systems he accessed, security measures Treasury IT staff took to limit his access/activity, and whether he had ability to change source code on production systems.

The PLA will complete much of capacity to conduct major combat operations over the next 2-3 years. Combined with our domestic situation, it has the ingredients for supreme danger and stupidity. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

Sharing the project I've been working on for the last month. Here's GTIG's paper on the severe threat to national security posed by cyber crime.

Great Andrew Batson review of what sounds like a great book: andrewbatson.com/2025/02/10/r...

Our website has been a bit wonky the past few days. Just a reminder that all of the resources (including #FRUS) are available on GitHub:

For good context on Chinese espionage targeting the Fed, including the utility and limits of this type of information, @gdp1985.bsky.social interview in 2022 is useful: www.mercatus.org/macro-musing...

JOB OPENING: I'm seeking to hire a deputy director, program administrator to work with my fantastic team in GMF's Indo-Pacific program. This is primarily a managerial and admin/budget position in either Berlin or DC. Apply here: www.gmfus.org/about/careers

Would make for an interesting case study on fragmented authoritarianism and limits to state capacity in China. The NDRC called on provinces to phase out bitcoin mining in 2021, but that doesn't seem to have happened cointelegraph.com/news/chinese...

Insightful and clear-eyed recommendations about how to handle US-China relations: www.brookings.edu/articles/abe...

Alexander Davey looked at online discussions about the pros and cons of pursuing a military career in China. Read his comment for @chinaspektrum.bsky.social, our project with the China Institute at Universität Trier, funded by Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom. merics.org/en/comment/a...

Xi Jinping's single most interesting diplomatic interaction caught on video was with Justin Trudeau in 2022. Unique glimpse of Xi's approach and style in a challenging situation. This was not a favorable setting for Xi and he didn't want to actually engage, he just wanted youtu.be/4YkzzhI2EoI