BofA saying $HIMS expectations too high for 2026 New products unlikely to offset lower core. $HIMS relied too much on GLP-1s to get them to the next leg up and now competition is fiercer than ever w/ still no access to $NVO oral pill Lower PT from $32 to $29 on higher multiple

If tariffs are so good, then why are >1,000 businesses suing this administration?

💪🏼 You gotta love it when a call becomes reality. In our 6 Themes (below) that we sent out before the end of the year, we called out that Trump would go after U.S. defense companies Now, $BA $RTX $NOC $LMT are getting hit from the announcement *takes bow*

Record breaking pre-release for $KITS.TO Was seriously dumbfounded the market sold this down to the $12s CAD on November Multiple tweets/reports we sent out that argued how much of a steal this was Now it's up >50% off the lows and 40% since we shared our most recent report

This AM, we released our most recent notes for part 2 on our "Fear-based" investing theme. We believe that Evolv $EVLV makes for a compelling long-term opportunity to capture more market share in the weapons screening space. See why below. www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/fear-based...

🎙️ IC #8 Lessons From The Past out now. As an investor, it's essential to reflect on your mistakes and identify what you got wrong in order to improve. In this episode, we go into our trades with $HIMS, $GENK, and $LQDA / $REAL for our topic examples www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/ic-8-lesso...

Thanks to another user for correcting me, oral Wegovy going online this Friday instead of next week like I thought Two things 1) still no deal with $NVO / $HIMS (taking guesses on when they'll start making excuses to compound) 2) $WW offering will almost effect entire Q1'26

Thinking of your New Year's resolution? Read this first Most ppl like to make a list of goals they want to accomplish in the new year. However, we go about this wrong. A few years ago, I adopted a method that I do every year now Find out what I mean below cgcholdings.substack.com/p/how-you-sh...

Looking to get out 2 more reports from our notes by YE One is an interesting special situation, though it will only work for smaller account sizes due to liquidity The other is a post-mortem on important lessons learned in 2025 that can carry over. Below www.cedargroveresearch.com

~45M Americans have a federally managed student loan and starting in 1 week, the U.S. gov will start garnishing wages of those currently in default (~5M) with another ~5M already in serious delinquency (+90 days late) right behind them Something to watch as the K economy evolves

This AM, we released our "6 Themes for 2026" and why we think they matter. As a refresher, below are our 7 themes we were monitoring for 2025, which included our watchlist of stocks that mostly performed rather well Take a look below for this year's takes www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/our-6-inve...

WHY YOUNG PEOPLE ARE BETTING ON EVERYTHING In today’s Wall Street Journal, I wrote about how an economy with fewer stable paths is pushing young people toward low probability, high payoff bets in search of upside - even though this is not what people actually want.

Love this callout by @PalmerLuckey regarding misaligned incentives in the defense industry. One we agree with and think will have effects on legacy defense contractors in 2026. Awarding cost-plus contractors, which is THE issue. Start: 34:45 open.spotify.com/episode/0cDy...

🎄 🎁 We're going to be sending out a surprise post over the weekend for newsletter subscribers. Will be a post for a 2026 set up, but you only get this if you're at least on the email list (free + paid). Take advantage with just 5 seconds of your day. www.cedargroveresearch.com

Youth Unemployment Rate highest since August 2020

$WW up 11% on the day so far with another PR and strategy improvement in them, solidifying their strategy as the one-stop shop for weight loss. We really won't see this fall into Q4'25, but 2026 looking to have a strong start.

Wow, I know the game that SS plays for initiating after an IPO but this is going to get people burned. $GLOO

In just a month, $KITS.TO has not only nearly retraced its entire drawdown but might, in fact, hit new ATHs Research isn't just about sharing new ideas. It's also to support opinions of stocks that have suffered drawdowns so investors don't panic This was one of those examples // +31% in a month

This morning, we sent out a new report on thematic investment that revolved around one word: FEAR Fear became our driving force for our long thesis into Owlet $OWLT, which, as of yesterday, is up ~226% since we pitched it ~1 year ago and another ~6% today www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/fear-based...

Crazy how much LillyDirect $LLY has scaled. Imagine NovoCare very similar $NVO "About 30% of the roughly 500k weekly prescriptions for Zepbound in the US are now sold through Lilly’s online service at discounted cash prices—as low as $299 a month, versus a list price of $1,086." on.wsj.com/3MsTVNp

Record-breaking sales for $KITS.TO for BFCM! KITS generated approximately $5.8 million in revenue during the week of November 25th to December 1st, 2025. Glasses ordered exceeded 16,800 pairs, representing 35% growth y/y Stock up +3% so far - great start to the holidays

🎙️ IC #7 out now. We had the pleasure of speaking with David Helderman, Director of Investor Relations at WW International $WW We talk about how investors should think about the new slimmed-down version going forward. Find it in the usual place. www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/ic-7-a-pho...

Have an exciting 🎙️ Investors Corner podcast episode coming out (hopefully) this week with a company director from a company we have a position in. Will be good for existing or prospective shareholders. Find it in the usual place for when it drops. www.cedargroveresearch.com

And then a 13-D for $GLOO comes out that shows the Grace and Mercy Foundation owns ~27.5% of Class A Shares (2.5M shares The issue is that even though they filed a 13D, they don't actually have much voting power Also, this is the same foundation that was sued years ago after the Bill Hwaung fiasco

Came within $0.02 of $OWLT being a 3x since we first published on it last October. Maybe Monday is the day 🙏🏼

And just like that, one week after IPO, $GLOO acquires its next company to... *checks notes,* tap into different languages? Makes no sense considering a majority of $GLOO's end clients are US-based Christians who predominantly speak English.

Appreciate George Steer from @financialtimes.com mentioning us in the recent $GLOO IPO today Hopes are too high for this company and we're not sure if they have enough runway to figure it out Will reiterate that this company has a going concern of being a company in 12 months

Newest out! Gloo Holdings $GLOO, a technology company in the faith-based industry, is going public today. We think that this IPO reeks of desperation, and after pricing $2 below the low end of the range, the company is grossly overvalued. See why below. www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/ipo-notes-...

Friendly reminder that $WW is being valued at 4x FY'26 EBITDA with a cash sweep provision and off of post-bankruptcy filing projections (modeling no upside from them) NFA, but the news today allows $WW to tap into their ~2.9M subs who aren't on medication Food for thought Disc: We have a position

This morning, we released part 2 of our quick Q3'25 earnings notes. $REAL crossed the 3x line, and we're pleased by the results. $KITS.TO announced a record-breaking sales week $SNWV recovering nicely from CMS changes $LNSR arb is iffy Find it below www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/bunch-of-q...

Morgan Stanley out this morning that $HIMS October data looking pretty bleak

Never mind, it hit 3x since we posted sooner than I thought $REAL +38% To showcase our original work on why there was such a mispricing, I've removed the paywall Access it with your email and you'll be able to read the whole thing. Onto the next one! www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/the-realre...

$REAL up 25% right now on killer earnings. We first wrote about this position when it was trading at just $5.13. With how well the company is executing, it might end up being a 3x for us by the end of the year. Once again, appreciate all those who've supported our work.

$REAL once again killing it! Lifts GMV, sales, and EBITDA guide for FY'25. Crazy how people still don't understand the tailwinds here Inflection in profitability will only expand with continued operating leverage Congrats to those who played this; +11% rn

$WW is going to be a tough one to hold through what seems to be utter stupidity in the daily price moves, but coming out of that Q3'25 call, the future looks really bright.

Amazing numbers for $WW this morning - better than expected - Clinical subs roll off less than feared - Overall subs better than expected - Rev beat on estimates - Adj. EBITDA beat - Guidance narrowed to top of range for rev + AE - Cash handsomely at $170M; +$17M Q/Q $WW +7% in PM

Really weird that $LNSR hasn't announced an earnings date. Given the timing of Q2'25, it should have happened at some point this week. The fact that they haven't announced anything, even for next week, makes me suspicious that something else is going on. An update from $FTC or $ALC?

Was really shocked at the trade down of $LQDA once the market opens but man was it a buying opportunity for people looking to snipe more shares +23% off the lows

Incredible numbers from $LQDA 🔥 - blew past sales estimates - profitable on an adjusted basis - >2,000 unique patients One of the many companies we've profiled this year to cross the 100% return mark Very excited to see where it continues to go from here Check our work below

We sent out our original note on the $WW back in August but not many people understand the upside here. The value is in the credit agreement and assuming no upside to projections or the multiple, we're looking at >$25/share of equity value. See our credit agreement explanation and math below. 1/2

This AM, we sent around our most recent thoughts on $HIMS, likening Andrew Dudum to the infamous "Teflon Don," John Gotti. Nothing bad seems to stick to this stock, but we outlined 3 potential scenarios that might. Find it all below. www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/hims-andre...

Going to write up a further explanation of what I'm talking about for $WW The "value" is from their terms in their credit agreement. You can keep all assumptions the same and the equity value is worth >2x what it is now. That's assuming nothing incremental. That's the play.

I truly think we're going to look back on all the OpenAI announcements and wonder why anyone believed they could keep announcing deals with money they don't have or will have over the next few years It's all pixie dust. Hindsight 20/20

🚨 For students - don't forget that @cedargrovecm offers a student discount at 75% off the annual price. I know how it feels to want to read research but not be able to afford the full price. Use the link below to get access. A school email is required! www.cedargrovecm.com/1be24f84

One thing I had to learn the hard way, which I'm seeing a lot from newcomers, is that a company can have "value" (i.e. hard assets) that make it worth more than what the market is valuing the stock, but that doesn't mean that you can unlock it Sometimes...it's just paper value.

Everyone's being kept up at night because of $NVDA I'm sound asleep knowing my teddy bear company, Build-a-Bear $BBW, will do well Reported earnings this morning Beats top/bottom and raises +17% in PM but we'll see what the call says

This AM, we released a new SS report on why we've decided to take a position in Weight Watchers $WW and bet on its turnaround story after exiting bankruptcy. Have a look below for the key points and link to the report. cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/special-si...

What I'm noticing more and more with stock pitches is that they've been lower and lower quality. You can tell not much thought or diligence has gone into them. Perhaps it's the market that makes people think making money is easy but that shouldn't make your process any less stringent or in-depth.

In keeping up with the streak that we have going on, I've removed the paywall on our $DKS/$FL arb trade we published back in May $DKS has rallied hard and the trade is up 6.7% right now Assuming deal close, annualized return at ~12% Check it out below for free www.cedargrovecm.com/p/m-and-a-ar...

I had reservations for $LQDA coming into earnings today since the run up was so extreme but DAMN those patient starts are amazing Well above even what I thought it was going to be (550 vs 350) Call will be important but a great win since we published the idea earlier this year