Amazing numbers for $WW this morning - better than expected - Clinical subs roll off less than feared - Overall subs better than expected - Rev beat on estimates - Adj. EBITDA beat - Guidance narrowed to top of range for rev + AE - Cash handsomely at $170M; +$17M Q/Q $WW +7% in PM

Really weird that $LNSR hasn't announced an earnings date. Given the timing of Q2'25, it should have happened at some point this week. The fact that they haven't announced anything, even for next week, makes me suspicious that something else is going on. An update from $FTC or $ALC?

Was really shocked at the trade down of $LQDA once the market opens but man was it a buying opportunity for people looking to snipe more shares +23% off the lows

Incredible numbers from $LQDA 🔥 - blew past sales estimates - profitable on an adjusted basis - >2,000 unique patients One of the many companies we've profiled this year to cross the 100% return mark Very excited to see where it continues to go from here Check our work below

We sent out our original note on the $WW back in August but not many people understand the upside here. The value is in the credit agreement and assuming no upside to projections or the multiple, we're looking at >$25/share of equity value. See our credit agreement explanation and math below. 1/2

This AM, we sent around our most recent thoughts on $HIMS, likening Andrew Dudum to the infamous "Teflon Don," John Gotti. Nothing bad seems to stick to this stock, but we outlined 3 potential scenarios that might. Find it all below. www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/hims-andre...

Going to write up a further explanation of what I'm talking about for $WW The "value" is from their terms in their credit agreement. You can keep all assumptions the same and the equity value is worth >2x what it is now. That's assuming nothing incremental. That's the play.

I truly think we're going to look back on all the OpenAI announcements and wonder why anyone believed they could keep announcing deals with money they don't have or will have over the next few years It's all pixie dust. Hindsight 20/20

🚨 For students - don't forget that @cedargrovecm offers a student discount at 75% off the annual price. I know how it feels to want to read research but not be able to afford the full price. Use the link below to get access. A school email is required! www.cedargrovecm.com/1be24f84

One thing I had to learn the hard way, which I'm seeing a lot from newcomers, is that a company can have "value" (i.e. hard assets) that make it worth more than what the market is valuing the stock, but that doesn't mean that you can unlock it Sometimes...it's just paper value.

Everyone's being kept up at night because of $NVDA I'm sound asleep knowing my teddy bear company, Build-a-Bear $BBW, will do well Reported earnings this morning Beats top/bottom and raises +17% in PM but we'll see what the call says

This AM, we released a new SS report on why we've decided to take a position in Weight Watchers $WW and bet on its turnaround story after exiting bankruptcy. Have a look below for the key points and link to the report. cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/special-si...

What I'm noticing more and more with stock pitches is that they've been lower and lower quality. You can tell not much thought or diligence has gone into them. Perhaps it's the market that makes people think making money is easy but that shouldn't make your process any less stringent or in-depth.

In keeping up with the streak that we have going on, I've removed the paywall on our $DKS/$FL arb trade we published back in May $DKS has rallied hard and the trade is up 6.7% right now Assuming deal close, annualized return at ~12% Check it out below for free www.cedargrovecm.com/p/m-and-a-ar...

I had reservations for $LQDA coming into earnings today since the run up was so extreme but DAMN those patient starts are amazing Well above even what I thought it was going to be (550 vs 350) Call will be important but a great win since we published the idea earlier this year

This morning, we shared around a new idea that we think could double that's hiding north of the border - Retailer operating in a recession-resilient industry - Has grown topline >20% a Q for the last 11 Qs Have a look below for key points and link cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/a-double-h...

We've done so much work on Capri $CPRI around the divestment of Versace and keeping up with how trends are doing at the stores and the math behind it. Very pleased with the results this morning. Stock up +16% Appreciate all of those who read/supported our work www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-bunch-of...

Our recent free article outlines our investment in OneSpaWorld $OSW earlier in the year with just a few hours of research. Our outline should help fellow investors transfer this thought process to other areas they may be looking at. www.cedargrovecm.com/p/when-misun...

Interesting note on shipping volumes Inbound container volume fell 7.9% in June from a year before, after a 6.6% drop in May. The declines more than wiped out a nearly 10% increase tied to inventory front-loading in April, and left the second quarter down 1.8% from a year earlier.

Truly cannot wait to share my report on OneSpaWorld $OSW with subs later this summer. We notified everyone in our sub chat on March 31 that the market was grossly getting this one wrong. +>24% since but the more important part is around their unique business model.

Also follow @paulcerro.bsky.social for all things HIMS.

Shared an ultimate $HIMS thread on Twitter for anyone looking for additional diligence since $NVO pulled their partnership on Monday Have a look! x.com/paulcerro/st...

For those of you who haven't heard yet, Novo Nordisk $NVO pulled their collaboration with $HIMS citing issues with their compounding practices and marketing. Stock down >22% right now Want to appreciate everyone here who has enjoyed my $HIMS coverage 🙏🏼

Is this bullish because it's presumably over now?

A follow up for why we said that the recent $HIMS retention claim is misleading. Based on Gleason data published in May 2024, patients on Wegovy had a ~70% retention rate at the end of three months and didn't dip below 60% until after 4 months 👇🏽 www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-anoth...

Another win for us and anyone who went along for the ride. We pitched Owlet $OWLT back in October of last year Fast forward to today, the stock is up >73% since our pitch 9 months ago This is just one of the many winners we've profiled. www.cedargrovecm.com/p/quick-pitc...

Feels good when another PM buys into your trade idea in size. Really makes the work worth it when someone else recognizes the value at play. Keep writing. Keep sharing.

At $FL's current price, you can get paid to short the stock FWIW even after the borrowing fee Above $24 and the trade becomes even more asymmetric for $DKS

I always had issues with how companies flat-out change KPIs if it best suits them. Signet Jewelers $SIG is no different, and it’s pretty clear that they’re changing these metrics to fool investors from wondering what’s going on under the hood www.herbgreenberg.com/p/the-games-...

This morning, we sent out a "bunch of quick updates" regarding positions we've sahred Those updates are as follows - Soho House $SHCO - LENSAR $LNSR - Liquidia $LQDA - Capri $CPRI - GEN Restaurant $GENK - DICK'S $DKS/ $FL - Hims $HIMS Can find it below. Enjoy www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-bunch-of...

Had the pleasure to speak with @TSOH_Investing regarding our views on the Peloton $PTON turnaround, what we liked/disliked, and discussed our views for the company going forward. We've also included our quick take on the matter as well 👇 www.cedargrovecm.com/p/ic-5-can-p...

In case people haven't seen yet, Build-a-Bear $BBW had another blow out quarter. Stock up 19% right now in PM +36% since our March 19 update Will follow up next week along with other earnings updates The only bear I've been betting on since 2022 🚀 www.cedargrovecm.com/p/updates-cp...

Just released our newest report on the DICK's Sporting Goods $DKS acquisition of Foot Locker $FL At a $24 takeout price and a $DKS sell-off, we believe that the current pricing leaves investors with an asymmetric opportunity for this arb trade. www.cedargrovecm.com/p/m-and-a-ar...

For the record, Soho House $SHCO added in their recent earnings that the takeover offer of $9/share they got back in December has not been assessed yet. This tracks with our findings that there most likely was never a legitimate offer on the table -13% since out report below

Friday, $REAL announced Q1'25 earnings and the stock sold off 30%. Frankly, we had no idea why and added to our position. Below are our notes and why the market might have been spooked from the results even though they shouldn't have been. +17% since then. www.cedargrovecm.com/p/real-q125-...

Current economic situation

Retail investors have never bought this much stock (BofA). And yet institutions continue to either wait on the sidelines or sell into strength. Retail have been too used to quick recoveries and haven't experienced an extended drawdown. Perhaps this is the year for a reality check.

Cedar Grove Capital Management profiled WeightWatchers (WW) in January 2024 with a short thesis. The stock is down >91% since then, and they just filed for bankruptcy yesterday. Free to read 🔗: www.cedargrovecm.com/p/weight-wat...

Just shared our thoughts on $HIMS Q1'25 earnings release yesterday. Q1'25 was a beat, as expected, but the reiterated guide puts more emphasis on management's ability to reaccelerate core growth. Welcome to short squeeze 2.0 among other 🚩's www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-q125-...

From Barron’s weekend piece on asking fund managers where they believe the 10Y will be one year from now

When you get a free "monthly" post/email from an SS writer, what in them do you like the most? (i.e. what do you get the most value from?) What do you hate about them? (i.e., what wastes your time/is not value additive?)

$LQDA up 11% today Judge denies $UTHR for PI We should all be good to go for May for those who bought in

Free long idea for investors We’ve been aggressively buying OneSpaWorld $OSW on the recent drawdown. We alerted subs about a month ago to it via SS Stock is another misunderstood consumer discretionary name tied to the travel industry (cruises). 1/5

An incredible stat I just learned about video games Surgeons who played video games at least 3hrs/wk led to 37% fewer errors and finished surgeries 27% faster. Remember that when your parents tell you that you're wasting time playing videogames

Going to be offline for the rest of the week. Finally moving from NYC to the burbs and will need a few days to get unpacked and situated. Back to scheduled programming next week. Cheers

Last week, we were able to attend the @PlanetMicroCap conference out in Vegas and meet with management teams. We were able to meet with 13 different management teams and compiled our notes and highlighted those we thought were interesting enough to dig deeper. 1/3

Has anyone actually read the $LLY lawsuit against Henry Meds? It's pretty hilarious because Henry Meds is, and for the most part, always was just fraudulently stealing $LLY IP

It's kind of surreal to see a car crash happening in slow motion and everyone, including the people inside the car, are yelling at the driver to stop but he keeps putting pressure on the gas and yelling "the other guy will move!" even though we all know he won't. Who to blame?

Sent this am, we are long The RealReal $REAL TRR has been collateral damage in the Trump tariff war despite being luxury-focused and having ZERO direct exposure to tariffs We think investors stand to benefit from strong tailwinds and a mispriced market www.cedargrovecm.com/p/the-realre...

Insane Booking volumes from the last week of March to first week of April across global and U.S. trade lanes plummeted.