Winter, is that you on the way?

Boo 🎃

Happy Halloween! 🎃 👻- it’s a spooky Friday. Also-don’t forget to also set your clocks back an hour before bed tomorrow night (Saturday).

My devs never told me, but sometime in the last week, the Android version of the New app also went live! It’s been on Apple a little longer. But now on both! play.google.com/store/apps/d...

Let’s have some fun. With the emergence of another La Niña pattern happening—coming off of a busy summer with precipitation and storms- here’s what I am thinking for this winter. This is all hypothetical-but let’s see how it pans out! This prediction is for MSP Airport totals.

Frost advisory has been expanded to include all of the Metro now. Temps may drop down to 33° or so.

If you intend to extend the life of any of your outdoor plants- you may want to move them inside or cover them. Especially in the N/NE and E metro where there’s a Frost Advisory. Just a bit further North- there’s a Freeze Warning tonight.

A shocking amount of people have asked- “what do the colors mean?” “Where is the legend?” On the image from 2 days ago. It’s model data and it’s not made to be media focused with a legend. That’s where broadcast graphics come into play with some editing. But here’s some rough edits to show you.

Playing around with one of the new potential tools. This could be a good asset to explain weather setups and things like that. Just scratching the surface with it. I believe it might not let me upload the whole thing. But here’s a sample.

This is a long ways out on the GFS. 384 hours for 10/19 (an eternity). Just giving you some food for thought as to how abruptly things can change after our mega late season heat wave. Have to watch and see how trends play out. Not a forecast- but noteworthy!

Merch store is Live! I think they turned ordering on. If not tonight- it will be in the AM! I have NOT raised prices. Prices are set to their costs + print. (no profits for me). Went with a local crew so you can choose pickup or delivery. boknowsweather.itemorder.com/shop/home/

Quick screen recording to show how you can also track tropical concerns on my app with NHC cones and spaghetti models etc. also crazy how Gabrielle is headed in a loop back to Africa. Next up is the looming threat of what 94L may become for the SE US- parts of which were just devastated by Helene.

Could it be a busy year?

One of my new apps is live on iOS —soon to be for Android as well in next 2-10 days— ran into a few delays with the developer account conversion from Personal to Business and the app transfer to a new account. apps.apple.com/us/app/bokno...

Possibility of some severe weather today. Main threat today appears to be torrential rain/hail with some training storms. But we also have a tornado threat. Wind threat is there but a bit lower. Main risk is this afternoon and evening. SPC risks from my new app- launching soon.

It’s always a process!!!

SPC risks today for severe weather- tornadoes/wind/hail. From soon to be launched/new BoKnowsWX app which I’m currently using in TestFlight. ND seems to be the late season hotspot today. The new App will be available for both iPhone:Android possibly as soon as late this week.

In addition to one of the earlier posts. Here are all of the data fields and overlays that will be available on the radar map on my new app.

Screenshots from my new app in TestFlight. Should be formally launching by next FRI. Has all sorts of great push alerts/interactive features for notifying you of weather. Automated & manual alerts for me to send video forecasts etc. Will be accepting advertisers on the app also.

We’ve got one more push of cooler temps to start off September before we should stabilize and warm again a bit mid-month. Along with it- the North shore and arrowhead regions of MN could see some snowy mix Wed into Thursday.

Frost Advisory up North in the purple counties. Seasons are entering that transition mode soon. Lows could get down to 33° tonight. Cover those plants up North! Here in the Metro, much warmer but still brisk for late August.

10 years late. But better late than never. 🤣🥲💪🏻🤩

Let the games begin. 🏆

Today. Dewpoints in 60s-highs in the 80s. This weekend will be a real fall preview with temps in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 40s to near 50. It will go from sweaty to hoodie weather in a quick second for MSP and surrounding areas. Here are some projected highs for Sunday afternoon.

Sunday for MSP: remnant activity from last night is weakening but more storms will redevelop today. We should expect more heavy rain (1-3” in some spots) and damaging wind gusts for some (MSP 8pm-3am). Good news is- it seems we start to dry out a bit this week. HRRR 15z here:

Hank wanted to get a few words in with me. 😂

Wildfire smoke should make another appearance late tonight and thru parts of Tuesday. Are you as excited as I am?

Severe Thunderstorm Watch til 4am. Includes the counties in pink, and the Twin Cities. Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are possible. Have a warning source if you’re going to bed.

SPC flagged the area in blue circle for a likely watch issuance as the front is moving into Western MN now and some cloud tops are growing as the instability gets more favorable. Storm coverage expected to increase over next few hours with all modes of severe weather poss.

11:40am FRI. Heads up today. Severe risk- especially the Tornado threat has been raised up for much of Central MN. We should see some development of storms this afternoon after 2pm and into the evening. MSP likely won’t see much from the first wave, but could see more later after the dinner hour.

Not to be an alarmist- but this cluster SE of Sioux Falls-currently a destructive thunderstorm is following almost the exact same path as the 2020 Derecho, in terms of where it formed. Iowa should be closely monitoring this and having a weather radio on for this dangerous storm complex.

9pm- currently NOT severe but I can see it going severe warned soon based on velocity. Might intensify right over MSP. At this point I think any Derecho concerns would be after it clears the cities as it starts to bow out- but keep an eye out regardless. Winds could still kick up to severe levels.

6:50pm. Severe Thunderstorm Watch til 1am in the yellow box. Includes MSP metro. Things are getting going to the West. It will be interesting to follow the evolution of this line.

5pm. Here’s our storms getting going (SD)-producing tornadoes/tennis ball sized hail while most storms remain discrete. But these should merge up. Once they do- how far East the cells break away from this strong instability gradient (W/SW MN) is a huge TBD.They tend to favor riding these gradients.

A gentle but frequent reminder.

Noon- the Moderate Risk has expanded a further East & Enhanced Risk also… Torrential rains, hail, tornadoes, & destructive winds possible this eve with a ‘Derecho’ being possible as well- which can bring winds over 80-100mph. Will this happen for everyone in the risk area? NO. Be prepared anyways.

MON AM- this will be a day to pay attention to… There’s a Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms to the West with the threat slightly scaling down for coverage as you had further East, but this doesn’t mean you should let your guard down…powerful wind event is possible this eve into early AM hours.

According to the HRRR we might do this again tomorrow evening (Monday into Tuesday). Let’s see how it goes! One run doesn’t make it a guarantee- but best to be prepared for anything and stay vigilant. That backwards “C” shape usually represents powerful straight line winds.

Alarming moment right before a tree hit Molly Nicholson’s home. ⚠️ Brief Language warning as well…

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until midnight. Includes the Twin Cities. Storms popping to the West. Wondering how far the Eastern extent will go or if it will dive S/SE and follow that instability gradient.

Looking to be an active afternoon. Be mindful of flash flooding potential as we will see training thunderstorms as well —with the torrential rains. Don’t drive thru flooded roads! Isolated severe activity is still possible today as well with all modes of severe possible.

8am-MON- models got it, but you can see the front edge thinning out and getting a little less red. Hail/winds of 50mph or so are still possible. Could it regain severe status briefly? Sure. Be on guard the next 1-3 hours. This could still be an impactful storm for many. Not to be ignored.

A scenario for 1pm MON. Models have widely varied between this MCS moving in between 5am-2pm and some have it staying further West/SW and some have it weakening upon approach. Stay vigilant regardless. Wind damage would be likely in this scenario- as well as some hail and an isolated QLCS tornado.

Severe storms, including large hill, damaging winds, and tornadoes today and then tonight/early WED-possibility of some training thunderstorms, which could yield 1 to 3”+ of rain… do not drive through flooded roadways! It only takes a few inches of water to float your vehicle. Stay safe!

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The smoke should promptly push out to the East mid day today with SW winds pumping up. But midday Monday into the afternoon and evening it comes back for at least 6-12 hours more. Monday afternoon could be pretty thick with surface smoke again. The brighter colors are the smoke.

We were about due for some wildfire smoke! Heads up. The air quality is already poor to the North and it will become rough for Saturday in the Metro area. Surface Smoke Loop posted.

Tragic situation in Texas today. I looped together several clips to show the nearly 4 months worth of rain since midnight today.

🇺🇸 🫡 Happy 4th!

Reporting live from the Lake 😎