Abolishing the Senate is the one thing the Constitution specifically requires unanimous consent from the states to do iirc, so admitting more states to dilute the power of the empty square states really looks to me like the easier path.

Chevron and Exxon are both saying $150/bbl oil is inevitable if Hormuz doesn't open ASAP. Even a few weeks of that will absolutely demolish any other arguments even if they do get a deal this summer.

I'll say again, I get the PTSD over Republican attacks but the fundamentals are very strongly against them and we should have confidence in the data (not to mention recent examples like their abject failure in VAGOV). They very likely aren't going to make fetch happen this year.

One reason to be skeptical of purely materialistic explanations for the vibescession in the US is Canada has largely experienced the same shocks and they seem to have successfully defused the fascist reaction by changing leaders and then redirecting anger to the United States.

Democrats do need a strong road map for unfucking the government and reforming fatally flawed institutions. I am less than convinced we need a whole marketing campaign that's basically intellectual masturbation for nerds.

Making the Texas GOP a synechdoche for the entire Congressional caucus is actually good politics imo. Cartoonishly corrupt, immoral, and unresponsive to every day cost of living concerns and actively antagonistic to technology that could help is a bad look.

It's funny in a sick way how MAGA has convinced themselves the manosphere crap was key to their victory instead of just lucky timing and now they're tripling and quadrupling down on the least effective parts of the 2024 campaign as validated by plenty of research.

I had the thought this morning that we've had 10 years of sedevacantism in the presidency as Head of State and surely that's partly why the vibes are so bad. Obama was the last person really able to play the role of Leader of the Free World with swagger and elan.

Everyone is thinking passengers, but the big self own in removing CBP fron JFK, Newark and other major airports is you're grinding a significant amount of air freight to a standstill.

I think we need to revive the original political psychology explanation: ultimately everything is subsequent to Big Five Openness to Experience.

It dropped off the national media radar because they like Trump and think he's a louche who won't touch abortion, but the nutters are still trying to make it legal to execute sluts. Overturning Roe was never going to be enough and they won't stop spiraling deeper until forced.

I'm sure Rupert Murdoch will be the first to volunteer moving Fox News and the WSJ Fort Worth to avoid woke mayors and the shutdown of lib airports, right?

I has some hope a sufficiently tight and hot labor market could be part of a real solution, but the experience of the past 5 years has demonstrated that's actually politically dicey too. This is why I'm so adamant about affluenza being a real and huge problem in our society.

TNC's case for reparations is a great example of following what the data actually shows and formulating a radical solution. Upper middle class whites are doing OK even if things aren't perfect.

To be clear, the survey is real but it doesn't say what you think it says. It's not "can't afford a $1000 expense." It's "would not use cash savings to pay for $1000 expense." An awful lot of people prefer to use a credit card to earn miles or points for instance.

Really sad to see zombie lies, like that survey about most households not covering a $1000 emergency from savings that was funded by fucking Bankrate (who have an obvious agenda deregulating credit) overtaking the left. So much for the reality based community.

Consistent with my view, the vibescession is real and there is a mystery why the economic sentiment baseline got pessimistic after the pandemic, but the recent deeper declines under Trump reflect real economic change. There is signal in the fluctuations even if the magnitude is fucked.

Obviously Texas Republicans aren't stupid enough to think Talarico is vegan. But they think their supporters are that stupid, and they're probably right.

I mean, we can't even agree on a diagnosis let alone a cure.

I'll be honest, I have very little confidence anyone knows how to fix the permanent sour mood and consequent political instability and feel like we're just going to have to white knuckle anti-incumbent backlash that can hand power to fascists until it abates on its own.

And to be clear, I think Trump's personal hold will slip the same way Bush's did after 2006. But I don't see how the malignant psychological forces he activated are going away absent a massive resetting event.

One thing I keep coming back to is there is just no obvious next in line Republican leader because Trump excommunicates anyone who could pose a threat, and is completely uninterested in managing his succession.

We don't have a spending problem. We have a revenue problem. We will have an entitlement problem in a few years thanks to demographics if we dont make some adjustments (lifting the payroll tax cap, increasing immigration, etc), but all the panic over "wasteful" discretionary spending is bullshit.

The Republican base has gotten more gonzo MAGA even as the newer parts of the coalition Trump rode back to power have peeled off, especially youth and Latino men. It's a weird dynamic and honestly I don't know how it'll shake out in the medium term.

Reminder that the transgender attacks have been duds every time, including 2024. It seems Democratic centralists aren't the only ones determined to learn the wrong lesson from that year's anti-incumbent party wave.

"My opponent is obsessed with my tackle box, I'm obsessed with tackling out of control prescription drug prices." The pitch to suburban voters practically writes itself.

Paxton is a real stress test on Trumpism without Trump being a loser. I'm confident this is correct and he's going to underperform again. Whether we have enough of a perfect storm for it to matter is, as said, something else. But he's not freakishly strong.

There's a nonzero chance the Talarico campaign brings up pedocon theory with as plugged in as some of his staff seem to be.

I'm basically a fundamentalscel so I'm really not fretting the bizarre attacks we're seeing from Republicans. None of this shit will matter if the vibes remain this bad.

Inventories are down and Trump says he doesn't give a shit about the midterms and won't rush a deal. So commodities traders are like "great time for a fire sale!" This has got to be one of the most extreme examples of market irrationality on record.

The 6 year itch is still a thing. We'll see if the gap matters, but I bet no and maybe it's even worse because we've had 11 years of this shit now.

Republican enthusiasm collapse is my scenario for an absolute blowout. I don't think it's going to be as easy for them to juice turnout this year with Trump transitioning to a lame duck. I'm getting 2nd Bush term vibes. The base is what it is, but everyone else is sick of this shit.

I think one thing cutting against Texas doomerism is Cornyn's loss turns this into an open seat. No incumbency bonus makes this a slightly better opportunity than 2018, provided the national environment is the same. You'd still rather be Paxton, but it's not a slam dunk.

Anyway, I think trying to deal with the gender stuff is a mistake. The thing to remember is the relevant voters aren't even paying attention to that shit. It's red meat for the base who are going to vote anyway.

My biggest reason to doubt Blexas is the Democratic media machine here is still MIA. I don't think the campaign stuff will matter much, but the overall info environment is still really bad and you've still got Tim Dunn and all the other billionaire creeps flooding the zone.

As primary results roll in I'm increasingly convinced age really is going to be one of the primary criteria for Democrats in 2028, rightly or wrongly.

R+1 is a reasonable baseline for Paxton I think, and that's not the floor. Especially since we don't know what oppo Cornyn was holding back because of the 11th commandment those guys all follow despite Trump.

Runoffs are elections where only supervoters show up. We already know the supervoter GOPers in Texas are nuttier than a shithouse rat. This election will be won or lost by Talarico mobilizing less engaged voters and persuading GOPers too indifferent to vote in May runoff.

I don't buy that Paxton is invulnerable in a blue environment. In 2018 he came within 3.5 points of losing to a complete nobody for AG, underruninng Abbott by a bit over 5 points. 2022 was a bit better but a bad year in general for Democrats.

Anyway, the idea that Texas has gotten redder is insane. It's been about 10 points to the right of the nation since the great recession. D+11 or better and the Hitler wall crumbles.

It's important to remember while Texas has a fuckton of conservative whites, it's also a really low participation state. You've still got that sleeping giant of the Hispanic vote and a lot of moderate whites who mostly vote Republican because it's "respectable."

My guess is unless the economy gets substantially worse Texas is going to be heartbreakingly close but no more. We can still force them to spend money that would otherwise go to Maine, Alaska, Ohio and North Carolina.

Would it be irresponsible to speculate about the real reason Paxton got divorced? It would be irresponsible not to! (Reviving an oldie here)

Paxton going all in on Fox News Cinematic Universe culture wars nonsense is definitely a huge opportunity for Democrats here.

I'm calling it now: There will never be a mirror image Democratic Tea Party because there will never be a media presence on the left that can drive our elders nuts the way Fox has on the right.

It's a real sign of the pundit bubble that they keep worrying about a Democratic Tea Party costing winnable seats when actual primary voters (who mostly aren't young, white, leftist men) keep showing electability is a top concern.

I guess get ready for the cringey Talarico July 4th BBQ where he spit roasts a wild hog while talking about making insulin free. Lean into it. As a fine poster once said, cringe is, for lack of a better word, good.

Yep. The GOP is going to get worse before it gets worse. Nutters are going to be in control of a major party for the rest of (most of) our lives.

Voted in the Texas runoff even though the D primary here is low stakes. I guess that makes me a huge weirdo. Even with the big stakes on the GOP side the turnout at 5pm looks to be 50% or less of the March primary in this precinct. So I'm guessing the MAGA fanatics will prevail.

Not just saying this because Harris as Democratic Nixon would confirm my 1970s in reverse thesis.