fwiw i think one reason why Trump is avoiding negotiating with Dems or really meeting with Dems is that they're hiding his condition.

I think a jury could quite reasonably conclude a being hit with sandwich poses no credible threat of harm and is something no rational person would fear and thus the elements of assault were not met. Fortunately they don't have to explain their reasoning. The unanimous vote to acquit is final.

This keeps up, they're going to go after the secrecy of jury deliberations next. Juries are under no obligation to explain a not guilty verdict and that's a good thing to check abusive prosecution.

I can't believe the proposition that objective facts don't matter at all because I've seen blatant lies blow up too many times in my life (I'm old enough to remember "dude, where's my recession").

Dead GOP is just as overwrought as dead Democrats was. The GOP retains a huge advantage in the Senate and the electoral college ensures they will remain competitive at the top. In an electorate where both parties start at the 45 yard lines due to even polarization you're never out of the game.

The Jay Jones split shows campaign quality is worth about 4 or 5 points at the extreme end, which isn't nothing. But also isn't nearly enough to beat macro forces and polarization on its own (and most campaign issues won't be nearly so extreme)

Another important reminder from this election is polls can underestimate Democratic support too and it's probably more likely when voter preferences are swinging wildly.

An unleashed Congressional GOP would make thermostatic reaction even worse btw. The only ways we've found to defeat it are be FDR/JFK tier, triangulate like hell the way Clinton did, or get lucky with a rally around the flag. The more partisan policy you pass the angrier the opposition gets.

It's both true that Trump is awful, worse in many ways than even dire predictions, and politics could not possibly end with his election. You cannot disappear or cow nearly half the population no matter how many billionaire sex pests want it.

Even if tariffs go away, you still have the Obamacare cliff and bird flu and ICE goons malding so I don't think SCOTUS can rescue Trump from homself.

I think Americans rightly see school athletics as not that important an issue when masked thugs are assaulting and abducting people in broad daylight every single day of the week. This isn't 2021 when the big issues seemed to be in good hands and folks could focus on smaller annoyances.

Americans can be pretty racist, but the unhinged mask off shit Mamdani and Obama before him elicit is still a bridge way too far for most people and I think there's a fair amount of support for forcing outright Nazis to crawl back under their rocks.

I suspect the overwhelming white maleness of the political commentariat has also played a big role in misperceptions of the political mood, since white men and especially white Gen X men have been Trump's biggest ride or die supporters.

Politics did not always used to be like this, but antipathy to the other side really has been the motivating force for the last 15-20 years and that papers over a lot of disagreements that blow up as soon as a coalition takes power.

Last night's election marks the official start of the transition of Trump becoming the lamest of lame ducks. A blowout in the midterms will seal it.

I don't think there's a lot of specific campaign advice to be gleaned from last night. Tide goes in, tide goes out and increasingly the national tides affect even hyperlocal races. But having young, energetic candidates does seem to help with riding the waves at least.

49.8% percent of the vote in a generically anti-incumbent year may not in fact have been a mandate to crush all the people pundits find annoying on social media.

New Yorkers have special dispensation for 24 hours to insufferably Bodega post.

I do not think the Trump coalition will hold together even in the higher participation midterms. Another year of constant chaos with possibly a self induced recession will break them. Sure the Foxoids will go down with the ship, but they are not enough without the new voters he brought in.

The victory tonight was too cross-ideological to make me think specific policies have much to do with it. Instead I think it's mostly a big W for team fight and we've once again been gifted a rare opportunity by the other side immolating on hubris.

Fundamentals trounce campaign minutia every damned time, we're just really bad at predicting which fundamentals will matter in a given election.

I wouldn't read too much into the Texas Constitutional amendments. These things almost never fail and there was practically no organized opposition even to egregiously fraudulent shit.

Turns out Gen Z women heard "your body, my choice" loud and clear.

Democratic backsliding can be reversed. It's never easy, and nothing is certain but can we dispense with the depression posting now? America is still full of decent people. We just have to remember to show up and take our civic duty seriously.

Big L for dumping gigabucks into attack ads. Voters aren't paying attention to that shit. It's vibes all the way, man.

The problem with Republicans going all in on Mamdani the communist is if NYC booms the kids are just going to think communism is awesome and they'll end up losing Gen Z forever too. But please proceed.

New York Democrats prefer a self proclaimed socialist to a certified sex creep and many pundits have the reverse preference and that says so much about what's wrong with political media.

What if all of Trump's juice was low info voters didn't believe he was a real Republican because of that stupid fake quote that was running around?

I strongly suspect a fierce anti-corruption, pro-affordability, pro-democracy outsider candidate is going to clean up in 2028 and then Democrats will have to figure out their priorities. But negative polarization is strong right now so we don't have to do all that in messy public fights.

If NYC ends up with a mayor that doesn't suck shit I'm going to have to seriously wonder if the actual vibes shift was a universe switcheroo.

The Union forever! Hurrah, boys, hurrah! Down with the traitors, up with the stars; While we rally round the flag, boys, rally once again, Shouting the battle cry of freedom!

People may or may not care about gender segregated sports but they really don't give a shit when two buck chuck is $8. They voted for cheap groceries, not what we're getting now and pundits have been steadfastly ignoring the evidence in front of our noses all year.

Orange Man Bad is actually pretty effective. Predictions are dangerous, but despite the nonconsecutive terms and punditry I still think it's more likely than not he faces a classic 6 year itch next year.

We're going to rename it Wokemo and start sending transphobes there for re-education.

They can't rig an election if it isn't even remotely close. Something to remember before dooming about next year.

Consultants are furiously digging through their contacts for ex-CIA agents with an English literature background as we speak.

I'm calling it: the vibes shift is dead. The people want Woke 2.0

Political science says protest voting is one of the key dynamics of midterms (eg it's the first chance voters get to express dissatisfaction in a concrete way) and it sure looks like we're seeing it good this year. Political gravity still exists. Don't write the obituaries for our country just yet.

Whelp, just some lousy Constitutional amendments (and a scant handful of decent ones) but due diligence done.

My hot take is Bush and Trump both deserve their rankings among the worst presidents of all time and it scarcely matters that Bush looks moderate in retrospect when he's refusing to use his stature now to defend democracy. In this case silence is complicity, as the kids say.

Likewise I think it's a fine thing to say the goal for environmental policy should be to actually reduce net emissions of CO2 and other pollution. But of course the right has made that controversial.

I think the goal for immigration policy should be to drastically reduce visible chaos while dramatically improving the legal immigration system and there's a reason Republicans keep blocking reforms in that direction and inserting poison pills.

To the extent Trumpism is degenerate Bushism we really are living in the world Cheney architected. Whatever doubts he had later were definitely too little too late. The elevation of ignorance and belligerence really took hold then and Trump is the reductio ad absurdem.

Honestly building out some federal megauniversities in empty square states to induce a few hundred thousand libs to move would do more to rebalance our politics than all the screeds about the DNC party platform combined.

It is weird seeing the Virginia and NYC elections getting wall-to-wall coverage now. That was like a minor sidebar on an otherwise sleepy news cycle back in 2009. I don't think it's healthy for society that we're constantly trying to read the tea leaves of voter opinion now.

But basically I think people are overreacting to Biden being seen as too old and weak to stand up to activists and Harris not being able to etch-a-sketch some unwise positions in 2019. At the presidential level I don't think Democrats actually have to do much to be competitive.

I do think it would be wise for the top of the next ticket to jettison degrowth rhetoric and laser focus on affordability and regaining leadership. I don't think it's too likely those will stop being concerns in 4 years and dropping things like unpopular eco mandates is an easy trade.

Anyway, I think we should be careful overstating how hard it is for parties to shift. Democrats are facing the problem parties in the wilderness always face in our system - lack of clear leadership, lack of a clear messaging platform, and voter inattention.

I am somewhat skeptical to party can convince voters they aren't woke, but I think they could have some success dealing with perceptions of weakness by nominating more forceful and articulate candidates.

Given the dynamics of political attention, I think a Presidential campaign is about the only time the parties can easily redefine their national image with persuadable voters. They're too tuned out otherwise.