Policy Exchange highlighting that the immediate custody rate for robbery last year was only 55%, but missing that's because very few child robbers get custodial sentences. For adults, the custody rate last year was 85%.

Can anyone explain to me why non-crime hate incidents aren't just logged as any other intelligence report, what if anything would be lost if they were, and why non-crime domestic incidents aren't part of the discussion? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Policy Exchange highlighting that the immediate custody rate for robbery last year was only 55%, but missing that's because very few child robbers get custodial sentences. For adults, the custody rate last year was 85%.

Can anyone explain to me why non-crime hate incidents aren't just logged as any other intelligence report, what if anything would be lost if they were, and why non-crime domestic incidents aren't part of the discussion? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Policy Exchange have sounded the Zero Tolerance klaxon. www.thetimes.com/article/2dff...

Have the public given up on reporting crime to the police?

And here's the blog. The basic point: there were huge changes to police crime recording from ~2014, as a result of a scandal and massively increased scrutiny. Note how, in the prev chart, violence without injury follows the same trend as sexual offences. www.police-foundation.org.uk/2018/03/crim...

Second, immigration, police-recorded sexual offences and violent crime, and the same CSEW prevalence data. These are indexed to - and therefore show change relative to - 2012/13.

Is there a relationship between immigration and rape/sexual assault? Two charts and an old blog for your consideration. First, immigration vs the prevalence of sexual assault recorded crime the Crime Survey.

Have the public given up on reporting crime to the police?

On a similar theme, here's a health warning from ONS, from their most recent Crime in England and Wales report. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

Is there a relationship between immigration and rape/sexual assault? Two charts and an old blog for your consideration. First, immigration vs the prevalence of sexual assault recorded crime the Crime Survey.

I can't claim to fully understand all the existing legal defences, but it might be considered inconsistent to have a specific defence re modern slavery but not also one for being a victim of coercive and controlling behaviour. On the other hand, the bar for duress is very high.

Gavin as ever here asks some searching questions about the resurrection of ‘hotspots’ policing and targeted police tactics…are you better served focusing on places & spaces…or the faces that cause or commit most crime or pose the most risks

'Two-fifths of mobile phone thefts in Europe happen in UK, shows insurance data' www.theguardian.com/technology/2...

Interesting to see the new ONS 'combined measure' of domestic abuse, sexual assault and stalking, which is (a) based on the Crime Survey, and (b) will be used as the basis for assessing progress towards the Govt's ambition to 'halve VAWG'. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

Something I've been reflecting on recently: I worry that an emphasis on places (e.g. hotspot policing) over people (those causing the greatest harm) may be a driver of disproportionality and especially 'false positive' contact between policing and the public.

New paper uses the Millennium Cohort Study to look at factors associated with police contact at age 14, and the association between that contact and outcomes at 17.

The title "Assessing Long-Term Effects of Police Stops" implies causality. From the discussion, "Police contact at age 14 increased the likelihood of violent offending by age 17" is a causal claim.

My frustration with this paper is the way it uses causal language in places - including the paper title - when the methods only support correlational claims, as the authors acknowledge.

New paper uses the Millennium Cohort Study to look at factors associated with police contact at age 14, and the association between that contact and outcomes at 17.

"Researchers who spent six months observing joint enterprise trials have found excessive use of powers, with individuals charged with murder despite only tenuous connections with the crime." #jointenterprise

📣 The Police Foundation welcomes Blair Gibbs as incoming Director. Blair is a leading policy advisor and consultant with expertise in public policy and government relations. Read more ⤵️ www.police-foundation.org.uk/news/blair-g...

New paper shows tools such as ChatGPT can effectively identify which police incident reports feature people who are particularly vulnerable. Could be very useful to catch cases where vulnerability is initially missed by police call handlers or officers.

Hello! Some months ago I wrote this SubStack post: open.substack.com/pub/stephenf... I've updated it as the article I referred to is now available on line (at onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... ). Please do pass on. As ever, always happy for feedback (good or bad). BW, Steve

"The findings suggest the new policing powers introduced under public health regulations disproportionately impacted people experiencing mental illness and/or addictions, pointing to a previously unidentified form of inequality that was exacerbated by the pandemic." www.adruk.org/our-mission/...

This is about failures on a big infrastructure project, but there's a lot about decision-making processes that would also apply to e.g. NHS management.

I'd be interested to read anything on unintended consequence risks that could arise from US involvement in Iran.

Two pieces of writing following the death of drugs campaigner Peter Krykant that are difficult reads but I think worth your time. unherd.com/2025/06/the-... And substack.com/inbox/post/1...

Dear #criminology on Bluesky…if anybody has any research projects or journal articles & books/chapters on the go that needs some research assistance or knows of anyone who does…even if it’s a small amount I’m looking for any opportunities at present in the area of policing/LE or extremism & CT

I've been re-reading the section of the Casey Review of the Met that addresses over-policing and under-protection and am struck that it says nothing about offending, nor the overlaps between victims and offenders for serious offences such as some forms of violence incl homicide.

A Guardian article about cycling in London that actually acknowledges what everyone who uses the roads in London knows: some cyclists are their own worst enemies and make life more dangerous for everyone, especially pedestrians.

And last year's NPCC report on CSEA reported that in police data one quarter of victims (slightly unclear if only contact offences or all CSEA) were male (p30) news.npcc.police.uk/releases/vkp...

In the case studies reported by IICSA, typically around one in six or seven victims were male. www.iicsa.org.uk/reports-reco...

One thing I'm struck by reading the Casey Audit is the absence of references to male victims of 'group-based CSEA'.

One thing I'm struck by reading the Casey Audit is the absence of references to male victims of 'group-based CSEA'.

These data are really important in terms of wider context

A thread of some relevance to current discussions of data on group-based CSAE

These data are really important in terms of wider context

A thread of some relevance to current discussions of data on group-based CSAE

Not an argument I can recall having seen made before

Curious line in the NPCC response to the Casey Audit about ethnicity data being self-defined, which ignores the recording of ethnic appearance data by police forces. #crimestats

A small point that strikes me about this recommendation and which Gavin's screenshot alerted me to: the recommendation is, curiously, worded differently in Casey's report and the government's response (was there some back and forth about its content?) Brief thread:

From the Casey Audit, on the matter of adultification. As I've noted elswhere, arguably the most glaring egs of adultification by policing (and others) have related to the victims of child sexual abuse and exploitation (CSE/A) in places like Rotherham and Rochdale.

And modes of investigation (if offending is serious and organised - not all CSAE is organised)

Unique identifiers

Ditto information sharing

If the government is going to make the recording of ethnicity and nationality data mandatory (where known...) why limit this to CSAE cases?

An overarching observation is that in many places one could add criminal exploitation to the scope of recommendations, including where child "victims were criminalised instead of protected".