The Social Democrats are in an absolutely terrible spot at the moment. It's not just one single issue that is causing its very bad polls. It's a sum of multiple problems, which they can't just easily solve. bsky.app/profile/euro...

According to my model, Ciucu (PNL) will win by about 12%. So Romanian polls are once again not very good. bsky.app/profile/euro...

While there is a limit of how much one opinion poll can say, this is probably the most staggering Danish poll I have seen in a long time. This is the worst poll for red bloc in this entire electoral term and by far the best poll for blue bloc, which would have a 94-81 majority.

The Danish People's Party (O) wins the position of mayor in Slagelse Municipality after the other right-wing parties ended up offering the position during the negotiations.

Did two maps of the 2025 Danish municipal (left) and regional (right) elections by polling area.

DR did a cool election map of the Region Østdanmark election, showing the approximate place of residence of each elected councilor. Shows how having an at-large election in a single massive constituency does not mean you can't have a decent geographic representation of places.

Here's the website I made with results/projections of the Danish municipal elections. I wasn't able to get it public last night since I was busy with other things, but check it out if you are interested in viewing the results and seat calculations. politiskeprognoser.github.io/dkprojection/

In Middelfart Municipality, where it looked like the Social Democrats (A) would keep onto their mayor, one of their candidates has just defected to Venstre (V) the day after the municipal election. She is now aiming to become mayor for that party, having tipped the majority.

I have thought about how to summarize the Danish municipal elections, and the best way of putting it is this: It is a bloodbath for the Social Democrats. Declining in the national vote share and losing MANY mayors. The responsibility will ultimately fall onto Frederiksen.

Did a map showing the party winning the position of mayor in each Danish municipality. Darker colors indicate it's a flip. Result is to be determined for the ones colored in gray.

In the municipality of Copenhagen, in what is quite a notable development, all parties except the Social Democrats (A) and Independent Greens (Q) are negotiating.

In Copenhagen it seems that AFÅ will NOT get a majority of seats. 33.6% counted.

Maybe the most insane result in Køge Municipality. Wtf this is a crushing blow. There was a red bloc majority before today.

This is a wild result and a bloodbath for the Social Democrats.

Here is an initial projection of the Copenhagen municipal election with 1 polling place and 1% of votes reported.

Here's a projection of the municipal elections at the national level

Turnout so far in the Danish municipal election: 9:00: 9.4% 10:00: 13.1% 11:00: 17.7% Based on the 775 of 1314 polling places that have reported.

Today Danish voters are voting across the entire country in the municipal and regional elections. It will be a quite consequential election that will set the tone for the parliamentary election coming up in 2026. Here is how it works and what to watch out for. 🧵

Here is a map of the probability that the incumbent party in each municipality in Denmark keeps the position of mayor after the 18 November election, according to betting odds. Municipalities colored black have no odds.

I have been following the Dutch election, and it basically will come down to the very last reported votes, what majorities are possible. D66 is very close a 27th seat, which would make D66-VVD-CDA-JA21 just exactly have a majority of 76 seats.

The Danish pollster Epinion just did a massive poll for the municipal election with more than 100,000 respondents. Here's a map showing what party, according to the poll, would get a plurality of the vote in each municipality and region.

Here is the one image that explains why Mette Frederiksen is currently in a lot of trouble. She is currently set to lose the left-wing parliamentary majority, which could threaten her position of Prime Minister after the next election.

Here's the overview of the number of candidate lists and number of candidates corresponding to each party letter at the Danish municipal election. Parties with national ballot access (A, B, C, etc.) are uniquely assigned its corresponding letter. The remaining are not reserved.

I was asked about the rise of the Danish People's Party (O) in a DM, and thought I would share my response as to why the party is gaining in the polls. To me there are three prominent causes.🧵

Now that the deadline has just passed, Danish municipalities are starting to release the candidate lists and electoral alliances. You can view it all on valg.dk

Here are the electoral alliances announced for the municipal election in Copenhagen. It is one of the most high profile ones in years because its outcome is open. Tomorrow is the deadline for approving candidate lists and electoral alliances for the Danish municipal elections.

By the way, if anyone thinks PPDA is pro-European, go check out its facebook profile. It has posts saying that the Sandu government is "Sorosist" and supported by globalists. For whatever label Wikipedia has put on it, its rhetoric has much in common with the pro-Russians.

Did a somewhat rudimentary projection of the 2025 Moldovan parliamentary election. It looks like the pro-European party of President Maia Sandu will win a majority of seats. The exact outcome depends on the votes cast by voters abroad, most of which are yet to be counted.

The Danish Social Democrats are doing a reshuffle of their ministers today. Their biggest hardliner on immigration, Rasmus Stoklund becomes Immigration and Integration Minister. No doubt a reaction to recent opinion polls and an attempt at winning back ground on that front.

Since this is up in the news again, here is a projection of what the electoral map in Germany would look like, if an election was held today, given current opinion polling. The first map shows the constituency vote, the second the party list vote.

Update: This has changed with the votes that were counted today. H gains a seat from Frp in Aust-Agder by a margin of 42 votes. This causes a cascade effect across four other constituencies. Overall Frp, loses one seat, while MDG gains one seat. bsky.app/profile/gust...

Did a map of the 2025 Norwegian election. The red-green bloc wins by about 3% of the vote, securing a 87 to 82 majority, and allowing Prime Minister Støre to continue in office. Note that while almost all votes are counted, small shifts (namely in levelling seats) can occur.

Here is the result of the 2021 Norwegian election, broken down according to vote type. Hopefully will be useful as a reference when interpreting the early results that will be reported soon (which will be entirely early votes)

The Norwegian election is being held today. Here's how you can follow it: - Polling places close at 21:00 CEST (19:00 UTC), at which point initial results will immediately be reported. The media will then soon do initial projections. - Results site is: valgresultat.no

The right-wing in Norway have thrown what looked not just like a certain win, but for a moment a massively large one at that. Absolute staggering incompetence.

Norwegian Save the Children have organised their own children's election for students in 5th to 10th grade. The results are quite a bit different from the school election that occurred recently. Here's a map of the results of the election.

The results of the Norwegian school election have just been published. This is a mock election held at Norwegian secondary schools, with voters being age ~16-19. I have mapped out the results, which show the right-wing parties doing much better than among the general electorate.

Here's an example of how the right-wing (Frp, H, Krf, V) could win the Norwegian election despite getting fewer votes overall. This is not a poll or a projection, but simply a calculation example based on current polling.

For the first time since the 2022 Danish election, the blue bloc (without M) is larger than the red bloc. This would put Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen at serious risk if an election was held today. 🟦Blue Bloc 48.2%, 84 seats 🟥Red Bloc 47.7%, 85 seats 🟪M 3.2%, 6 seats

Here is the recently published Norwegian "mega" poll mapped out. As things are right now, Prime Minister Støre and his red-green bloc is likely to beat the bourgeois bloc, led by former Prime Minister Erna Solberg.

Update: This is what the numbers look like if I put in the opinion polls from August. bsky.app/profile/gust...

Did maps of the 1953 to 2021 Norwegian parliamentary elections. - 1953

The first Danish opinion polls in August have been rather bad for Mette Frederiksen. If you had asked me earlier this year, I would have said her re-election was basically certain. Now? Well according to the polls, her bloc is on track to lose its majority.

Here is the current polling average for the Norwegian election, according to @pollofpolls.no, mapped out. It is currently very very close and it might end up coming down to <1000 votes to determine who wins.

Since I haven't seen someone else work it out, here is the projected composition of the electoral college that will vote in the 2027 German presidential election. In all likelyhood, the government government coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD will have a majority.

A parliamentary majority in Denmark wants to change the electoral law, so that no party can win more constituency seats, than it is entitled to seats based on its national vote share. In 2022 the current rules gave the Social Democrats an extra seat. nyheder.tv2.dk/politik/2025...

The Romanian electoral system is beyond absurd. Seriously, why don't they change it... This is just stupid.

Made a Wikipedia-style polling graph for the 2015 Danish election, both by parties and political blocs.

Did a map template of the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election. Here is a rudimentary projection based on recent opinion polls.

What if, instead of countries having geographic constituencies, it instead had constituencies based on demographics? That's basically what it might theoretically look like, based on the 2015 Danish election and the corresponding voter survey data.