By the way, if anyone thinks PPDA is pro-European, go check out its facebook profile. It has posts saying that the Sandu government is "Sorosist" and supported by globalists. For whatever label Wikipedia has put on it, its rhetoric has much in common with the pro-Russians.

Did a somewhat rudimentary projection of the 2025 Moldovan parliamentary election. It looks like the pro-European party of President Maia Sandu will win a majority of seats. The exact outcome depends on the votes cast by voters abroad, most of which are yet to be counted.

The Danish Social Democrats are doing a reshuffle of their ministers today. Their biggest hardliner on immigration, Rasmus Stoklund becomes Immigration and Integration Minister. No doubt a reaction to recent opinion polls and an attempt at winning back ground on that front.

Since this is up in the news again, here is a projection of what the electoral map in Germany would look like, if an election was held today, given current opinion polling. The first map shows the constituency vote, the second the party list vote.

Update: This has changed with the votes that were counted today. H gains a seat from Frp in Aust-Agder by a margin of 42 votes. This causes a cascade effect across four other constituencies. Overall Frp, loses one seat, while MDG gains one seat. bsky.app/profile/gust...

Did a map of the 2025 Norwegian election. The red-green bloc wins by about 3% of the vote, securing a 87 to 82 majority, and allowing Prime Minister Støre to continue in office. Note that while almost all votes are counted, small shifts (namely in levelling seats) can occur.

Here is the result of the 2021 Norwegian election, broken down according to vote type. Hopefully will be useful as a reference when interpreting the early results that will be reported soon (which will be entirely early votes)

The Norwegian election is being held today. Here's how you can follow it: - Polling places close at 21:00 CEST (19:00 UTC), at which point initial results will immediately be reported. The media will then soon do initial projections. - Results site is: valgresultat.no

The right-wing in Norway have thrown what looked not just like a certain win, but for a moment a massively large one at that. Absolute staggering incompetence.

Norwegian Save the Children have organised their own children's election for students in 5th to 10th grade. The results are quite a bit different from the school election that occurred recently. Here's a map of the results of the election.

The results of the Norwegian school election have just been published. This is a mock election held at Norwegian secondary schools, with voters being age ~16-19. I have mapped out the results, which show the right-wing parties doing much better than among the general electorate.

Here's an example of how the right-wing (Frp, H, Krf, V) could win the Norwegian election despite getting fewer votes overall. This is not a poll or a projection, but simply a calculation example based on current polling.

For the first time since the 2022 Danish election, the blue bloc (without M) is larger than the red bloc. This would put Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen at serious risk if an election was held today. 🟦Blue Bloc 48.2%, 84 seats 🟥Red Bloc 47.7%, 85 seats 🟪M 3.2%, 6 seats

Here is the recently published Norwegian "mega" poll mapped out. As things are right now, Prime Minister Støre and his red-green bloc is likely to beat the bourgeois bloc, led by former Prime Minister Erna Solberg.

Update: This is what the numbers look like if I put in the opinion polls from August. bsky.app/profile/gust...

Did maps of the 1953 to 2021 Norwegian parliamentary elections. - 1953

The first Danish opinion polls in August have been rather bad for Mette Frederiksen. If you had asked me earlier this year, I would have said her re-election was basically certain. Now? Well according to the polls, her bloc is on track to lose its majority.

Here is the current polling average for the Norwegian election, according to @pollofpolls.no, mapped out. It is currently very very close and it might end up coming down to <1000 votes to determine who wins.

Since I haven't seen someone else work it out, here is the projected composition of the electoral college that will vote in the 2027 German presidential election. In all likelyhood, the government government coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD will have a majority.

A parliamentary majority in Denmark wants to change the electoral law, so that no party can win more constituency seats, than it is entitled to seats based on its national vote share. In 2022 the current rules gave the Social Democrats an extra seat. nyheder.tv2.dk/politik/2025...

The Romanian electoral system is beyond absurd. Seriously, why don't they change it... This is just stupid.

Made a Wikipedia-style polling graph for the 2015 Danish election, both by parties and political blocs.

Did a map template of the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election. Here is a rudimentary projection based on recent opinion polls.

What if, instead of countries having geographic constituencies, it instead had constituencies based on demographics? That's basically what it might theoretically look like, based on the 2015 Danish election and the corresponding voter survey data.

Here's something I made last year that I haven't shared yet. It's a map of the 2024 EP election in Denmark... But instead of just showing the largest party in each nomination district, it shows what the seat distribution would have been, in that nomination district alone.

And with 95.5% counted, and Nawrocki winning the election by ~51% to 49%, this is what the projected election map of Poland looks like.

I fixed a really dumb mistake that I accidentally had made. That probably resulted in the projected vote share for Nawrocki to be a couple of permilles more than it should have been.

My projection is incredibly stable by this point, with the projected vote share hovering around 51.9% to 48.1% for the last half an hour or so. When I say it is over, it really is over.

With about 11% of votes counted, I assess that Karol Nawrocki has WON the Polish presidential election, beating Rafał Trzaskowski.

I am not ready to quite call it yet, but with about 8% counted, Karol Nawrocki is very likely to win the Polish presidential election.

At this point Nawrocki has a lead in my projection and the live count of about 3.2%. As a reminder, the numbers in my projection are available here every time I run it: github.com/politiskepro...

At this point Nawrocki has a lead in my projection of ~1%.

Updated exit poll from TVP is very close to my current projection.

Yeah we could be in for a long night. It's still so early that the margin of error is definitely more than 1%. But this is what my math says.

Here is a link to the page for my projection. Note that as of right now, I am having to update the results manually, so there won't be an update every 60 seconds. politiskeprognoser.github.io/projections/

Working to get it automatically updating.

I am trying to get my model to automatically update. Here is the result with 129 precincts for voters residing abroad. Do NOT expect this to be representative of the final result.

Trzaskowski is favored to win the Polish presidential election, leading 50.3 to 49.7% in the exit poll. But it is too close to know for sure who has won before the votes are counted.

For the Polish presidential election, I will post a link to my projection once votes start coming in. Here is a preview of what the page looks like. First round result shown for illustration.

For those who don't know, the level of detail with which it is possible to map Spanish elections is truly breathtaking. More than 36 thousand precincts of about 1000 voters each. And some so small that most websites won't even allow you to upload a large enough image to see them.

I will be doing a live projection for the second round of the Polish presidential election on Sunday. For reference, here is how the projection would have done if used at the 2020 election.

Nicușor Dan has won the Romanian presidential election with about 54% of the vote. He is mathematically certain to do so; even if Simion received 100% of all the remaining votes, Dan would still receive the most votes.

Here is my projection of the Romanian presidential election. Keep in mind that it is very rough as there remain many votes to be counted, and I am not 100% perfect at doing it. I will post updates in this thread.

Some quick math here. Romanian exit polls only include votes cast in Romania. If we try to take that into account, and guess what the result among votes cast abroad might be, this implies that the result could be something like: Dan: 51.6% Simion 48.4%

Dan leads the Avangarde exit poll, but they are so bad in Romania that this basically just means that the race is closer than ever.

A VERY rough estimate from my side, for the Romanian election, is that the advantage Simion gets from the increased turnout among voters abroad, is more or less equally cancelled out by Dan benefitting from higher domestic turnout. But it all depends on how people have voted.

Since I am sure some people will be looking for it, here are links to the results websites for the elections today. Poland: wybory.gov.pl/prezydent202... Portugal: www.legislativas2025.mai.gov.pt Romania: prezenta.roaep.ro/prezidential...

This is what the current opinion polling in the UK implies in terms of number of seats won, if you model the vote based on a simple proportional swing. Goes to show how utterly ridiculous the electoral system is becoming.

Crazy. I am pretty familiar with German politics, and I saw the investiture vote as a foregone conclusion. Yet Merz fell six votes short. www.bbc.com/news/article...