Laura James (@laura.social.coop.ap.brid.gy)

The UK ponders Proportional Representation <p>On Friday 30<sup>th</sup> January we are finally going to see a debate in Parliament about changing the UK’s “first-past-the-post” voting scheme, which will probably suggest some form of proportional representation, more commonly known as PR. </p> <p>Two years ago, when it was looking pretty certain that the Conservatives would lose the 2024 election, I wrote an <a href="https://www.nickhunn.com/pr-not-pm-the-uk-has-a-golden-opportunity-for-electoral-reform/">article suggesting that Rishi Sunak should devote his final term to bringing in Proportional Representation</a>. If he had, we might have a very different Government to the one we have today. In 2024, Labour won the election, gaining 411 seats with 33.7% of the votes, The Tories slipped to 23.7% of the total votes, which gave them only 121 MPs. One reason for their poor performance was that the right wing vote split between them and Reform, with Reform picking up 9 seats for 14.3% of the vote. Had Rishi gone for Proportional Representation, and then found a way of working with Reform, their combined 38.0% of the vote would have given them 247 seats, compared to 219 for Labour. </p> <span id="more-3104"></span> <p>If he’d taken my advice, Rishi might still be Prime Minister, but he threw it away. Whether or not that would be a good thing is debatable, but it would have brought a different dynamic to UK politics.</p> <p>Looking at the 2024 results, It’s clear that the number of seats won does not match the percentage of the overall votes. The chart below shows how much better Labour did than their share of the votes would have suggested. Equally it shows how difficult it is for smaller parties, such as Reform and the Greens to get any seats in Parliament, even when they acquire millions of votes. The Reform experience is particularly marked – they polled over 4 million votes, but only gained 5 seats. In comparison, the Liberal Democrats received 3.5 million votes, but got 72 seats. Whatever anyone thinks of their respective merits, that does not represent the electorate’s wishes. </p> <p>That discrepancy becomes very clear when you look at the number of votes needed to win each seat, The chart below shows how many votes each of the national parties needed for each MP.</p> <div class="wp-block-image"> <figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img alt="" class="wp-image-3110" data-recalc-dims="1" decoding="async" height="454" sizes="(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" src="https://i0.wp.com/www.nickhunn.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/pr-votes-per-seat.jpg?resize=720%2C454&ssl=1" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/www.nickhunn.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/pr-votes-per-seat.jpg?w=724&ssl=1 724w, https://i0.wp.com/www.nickhunn.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/pr-votes-per-seat.jpg?resize=300%2C189&ssl=1 300w" width="720"/></figure></div> <p>On average, a Labour MP was elected with 23,600 votes. A Green MP needed 460,000 votes and a Reform MP required 823,000. Democracy is clearly not working. Instead, we have the skewed picture we see below.</p> <div class="wp-block-image"> <figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img alt="" class="wp-image-3111" data-recalc-dims="1" decoding="async" height="456" sizes="(max-width: 698px) 100vw, 698px" src="https://i0.wp.com/www.nickhunn.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/pr-results.jpg?resize=698%2C456&ssl=1" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/www.nickhunn.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/pr-results.jpg?w=698&ssl=1 698w, https://i0.wp.com/www.nickhunn.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/pr-results.jpg?resize=300%2C196&ssl=1 300w" width="698"/></figure></div> <p>That problem of under-representation of other parties becomes more and more marked as the number of parties increase. If we chart the occasions over the last century where a single party has managed to win over 60% of the seats and compare that with the votes they needed to achieve that level of majority, we see a worrying trend.</p> <div class="wp-block-image"> <figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img alt="" class="wp-image-3112" data-recalc-dims="1" decoding="async" height="433" loading="lazy" sizes="auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" src="https://i0.wp.com/www.nickhunn.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/pr-sizty-percent.jpg?resize=720%2C433&ssl=1" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/www.nickhunn.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/pr-sizty-percent.jpg?w=793&ssl=1 793w, https://i0.wp.com/www.nickhunn.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/pr-sizty-percent.jpg?resize=300%2C180&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/www.nickhunn.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/pr-sizty-percent.jpg?resize=768%2C462&ssl=1 768w" width="720"/></figure></div> <p>Back in 1931 and 1935, the Tory party needed just over half of the total votes to win 60% of the seats. Last year, the Labour party only needed a third of the votes to get a similar level of representation. What worked when we had a two party system doesn’t work when voters have more choice. Instead, it marginalises the smaller parties, making it easier for the Conservative and Labour parties to achieve dominating majorities. As a result, the choices of almost half of the electorate are ignored, making Parliament less and less representative.</p> <p>This trend isn’t new. We can see it going back to the 1980s, but politicians have consistently ignored the issue. The Liberal Democrats could have pushed it in their 2010 coalition with the Tories, but they ducked it, losing most of their voter support as a consequence. Rishi could have stayed in power if he’d adopted PR in time for the 2024 election, but ignored the opportunity.</p> <p>Now, rather surprisingly, it’s back on the table. In November, over 100 MPs called for the government to launch a ‘National Commission for Electoral Reform’. Last month, the House of Commons voted for PR for the first time ever following a brief, ten-minute debate. The proposition to back proportional representation <a href="https://votes.parliament.uk/votes/commons/division/1878">won by 138 votes to 135</a>. It was a tiny majority and this particular motion is unlikely to go anywhere, but the voting pattern is interesting.</p> <div class="wp-block-image"> <figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img alt="" class="wp-image-3113" data-recalc-dims="1" decoding="async" height="382" loading="lazy" sizes="auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" src="https://i0.wp.com/www.nickhunn.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/pr-ten-minute-bill.jpg?resize=720%2C382&ssl=1" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/www.nickhunn.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/pr-ten-minute-bill.jpg?w=1124&ssl=1 1124w, https://i0.wp.com/www.nickhunn.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/pr-ten-minute-bill.jpg?resize=300%2C159&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/www.nickhunn.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/pr-ten-minute-bill.jpg?resize=1024%2C544&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/www.nickhunn.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/pr-ten-minute-bill.jpg?resize=768%2C408&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/www.nickhunn.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/pr-ten-minute-bill.jpg?resize=1100%2C584&ssl=1 1100w" width="720"/></figure></div> <p>It shows that Proportional Representation is still very much a Lib-Dem imperative. They’ve suffered most in the past fifty years, although they didn’t do much about it when they had the chance. Labour appear split and the Tories still don’t appear to have grasped that some form of PR may be their best chance of winning next time. </p> <p>However, those 138 votes for the motion suggest that this is the most pro-PR Parliament in history, which is now going to have a larger debate on 30th January to consider a change in the voting system. Fewer than half of our MPs attended that previous debate. Please write to your MP to ask them to attend on the 30<sup>th</sup>, pointing out the need for a system which is more representative of how we cast our votes. You can send them a letter through the <a href="https://actionnetwork.org/letters/pr-debate-250130">Action Network webpage</a> at <a href="https://actionnetwork.org/letters/pr-debate-250130">https://actionnetwork.org/letters/pr-debate-250130</a>.</p> <p>It will also be important to get the main Party leaders on board. Each should have good reasons for supporting it. With the continuing fall in trust for politicians, and the belief that voting is increasingly influenced by fake news, they have never been less confident about their ability to win. As we saw in the 2024 election, the dynamics of voting are becoming less stable, with small changes in electoral feeling capable of inducing large changes in representation in Parliament. That plays to policies which move to extremes, which don’t help long term growth.</p> <p>Last year, voters demonstrated that they don’t want two-party politics. 42% of voters did not vote for Labour or the Conservatives, but their votes are only represented by 18% of the total number of MPs. This means that almost half of those who voted are disenfranchised.</p> <p>Proportional Representation, or any other replacement system, should result in a more balanced House of Commons, which raises other concerns. Previous coalitions haven’t gone well, and the prospect of the Kemi, Keir and Nigel working together is difficult to imagine. However, that highlights another challenge for change, which is that our current leaders have been honed by the first-past-the post system and are possibly no longer the people we need in Parliament. They will resist change, because for them they feel they would be turkeys voting for Christmas. As voters, we need to remind them how much we enjoy eating turkeys.</p> <p>We need change, which is why it is so important to write to your local MP. Backbenchers are the key to change. They will turn into more useful representatives if they’re not forcibly indoctrinated into the two-party strictures of the current system. So please write to them. 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