Forecast models continue moving this storm further south/southeast; for the Richmond area, maybe 2-4”, then 5-9” as you get south and southeast of Petersburg to Wakefield to Norfolk, maybe over to Emporia and South Hill. Blizzard conditions for Virginia Beach area with winds gusting to 55 mph

The National Weather Service at Wakefield has issued a Winter Storm Watch for much of eastern and central Virginia.

As of now 3-5” of snow looks reasonable for Saturday evening into Sunday, with 6-10” possible further southeast towards Suffolk, Chesapeake, Hampton Roads; additionally, strong winds likely over coastal #Virginia as well.

But they’re going to close their cold weather shelters anyway. @dannyavula.bsky.social gets two thumbs down from me. #RVA

The GFS model continues to be alone in showing a significant snow into central #Virginia, I feel fairly good we can call that one the outlier. Still want to have a look at the shorter range models starting tomorrow, but I think we can safely rule out a huge snowstorm. #RVA

Two camps of thought among the forecast models: the GFS and Canadian both have a pretty intense snowstorm over central and eastern Virginia, with heavy snow totals and blizzard conditions. The European, British, and German models take the system further east, offshore, therefore much less snow

Main roads around Mechanicsville are looking pretty good, but neighborhoods and side streets are still a mess in a lot of places, and some parking lots as well. Unfortunately, single digit lows continue this week and highs staying under freezing.

So far, models are keeping next week’s storm system a bit too far east offshore to bring much snow to #RVA and areas west of I-95. In fact, so far the consensus is that Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Norfolk, etc would see a moderate snow, maybe the lower eastern shore, not much elsewhere. #VAwx

Definitely recommend clearing your vehicles and sidewalks/driveways of snow and ice now while the sun is out and we’re in the low 30s, it’ll only get colder after today.

Hate to have to pivot so quickly but as I mentioned last week, the pattern is going to stay favorable for winter storm systems, at least from a cold air perspective, through the end of the month and early February. Seeing strong hints of another system to watch for next weekend….

All done with this winter storm for areas along and west of interstate 95, now just frigid temps through next weekend....

Freezing rain or a freezing rain/sleet mix making its way across the 95 corridor now

Anyone seeing a change from sleet to freezing rain? #RVA #Virginia

All sleet now south of Fredericksburg, Tappahannock, over to Staunton; should stay sleet for quite a while, at least through early or mid afternoon before freezing rain starts to enter the picture. Still snow across northern #Virginia and #Maryland. Checking VDOT cameras, interstates are covered up

Snow is spreading across southern Virginia this evening, and will become more widespread overnight, before changing to sleet early tomorrow morning, and staying sleet most of the morning and perhaps into the afternoon before going to freezing rain. #RVA #Virginia

I feel like I’ve been focusing a lot on Virginia the last week, so here’s the snow totals forecast for D.C. into #Maryland. A lot less freezing rain up that way so more snow than further south, especially western Maryland over to Winchester in VA.

Las cantidades de nieve se redujeron nuevamente en la mayor parte de #Virginia debido a un período prolongado de aguanieve el domingo por la mañana antes del cambio a lluvia helada en algún momento de la tarde o la noche del domingo...

Snow amounts lowered again slightly across the board for most of the state, including northern VA, due to a prolonged period of sleet Sunday morning, then going over to freezing rain sometime in the afternoon. If sleet hangs around longer, that would save us from truly crippling ice accumulations.

We're now within the forecast window for the higher resolution short range models, and several of those are pointing to more sleet, and less snow and freezing rain, which would be really good news for possibly avoiding widespread and prolonged power outages. Fingers crossed they're correct

Noting that some models, including the European model which was the first to suggest less snow and more ice, have on today's model runs actually slightly increased snow totals for #RVA and areas north of the James River, keeping us at 6 or 7 inches w/ a sharp drop off just south of Richmond.

Little to no change from yesterday's model runs; these most recent snow and ice maps from @nws.noaa.gov in Wakefield look pretty good to me. #RVA is hanging on to 4-6" with a sharp drop off just south and southeast of Richmond due to sleet and freezing rain mixing in sooner. #Virginia #DC #Maryland

For folks on the eastern shore and along the Chesapeake Bay, same story, snow changing to sleet and freezing rain but ice accretion won't be as severe out your way.

Snow totals continued trending downward today for #RVA and areas south and southeast (2-4" just south/southeast of Richmond); Richmond sits right on the edge between 2-4 and 4-7"; still anticipating severe icing from Richmond southwest to Danville Sunday morning, then freezing rain spreads north

Little change from last night…still expecting a changeover to sleet then freezing rain sometime Sunday morning, ice accumulations of up to 3/4” in/around #RVA after about 7 to 10” of snow, followed by low temperatures in the low teens all of next week. dmvweather.beehiiv.com/p/sunday-win...

Next update will be tomorrow evening...need a break from staring at model maps all day long. Also anxious to make use of the higher resolution short-range models that only go out 48 to 72 hours but can better forecast smaller features like narrow bands of intense precip.

I'm still having doubts about the European model and it showing freezing rain totals of near an inch in #RVA; some other models do have SOME freezing rain but nowhere near that amount. Still expecting about 8-10" of snow in Richmond, then going over to sleet and freezing rain Sunday afternoon

After looking at the forecast models this morning and again at noon, we are no longer looking at a 2 foot snowstorm in the Richmond area. We are now looking at 7 to 10 inches of snow changing over to sleet and then to freezing rain, we could be looking at possibly half inch of ice in #RVA

The changes on the European model overnight are particularly worrisome as the model is showing freezing rain entering the picture on Sunday afternoon/evening, and shows close to an inch of ice; now you start getting into power outages, especially w/ temps staying well below freezing thru Tuesday

Latest Canadian model limits the heaviest snow to north of #RVA and brings more sleet and freezing rain into the Richmond area, upwards of 0.41" of ice; the latest GFS model that just came out is still mostly snow, but brings sleet into Richmond Sunday afternoon & evening, trimming snow totals some

I'm now posting to Threads and Instagram if you'd like to follow my posts on other platforms! Just search for @rva_weather

No drastic changes to the forecast so far today, other than the noon GFS model run shifting the heaviest snow further south again, away from D.C. and to just south of #RVA; but, the GFS ensembles don't agree, so that run might be just a fluke. The European model holds course with 12 to 20" in RVA

The noon GFS model and so far the noon European-AI model have both backed down a little bit from the extreme snow amounts shown yesterday, and shifted the heaviest snow bands slightly south, away from D.C. and a bit south of #RVA. Even so, we're still talking a significant event

Some models continue to inch up snow totals south of D.C. this weekend but I think 10 to 15" for a large swath of southwest, south central, and eastern Virginia looks reasonable. No worries about freezing rain, that'll stay down in South Carolina and Georgia. #Virginia #VAwx #RVA #MDwx #Maryland #DC

Notable shift northward with the track of this weekend's storm system by the GFS model, so that it now closely matches the European model in that the axis of heaviest snow is in a wide band stretching from Wytheville, VA to Roanoke to Emporia and #RVA to Chesapeake to Fredericksburg & eastern shore

The biggest difference right now between the GFS and ECMWF models is that the GFS is much further south with the storm track; the heaviest snow sets up well south of D.C., between #RVA and Jacksonville, North Carolina, with little for #DC. The European model blankets VA and DC with 12-20 inches

The overnight forecast model runs go absolutely bonkers with next weekend's winter storm; the European model drops a whopping 18" in #RVA and around most of central #Virginia; the GFS isn't quite so generous but still shows an impressive 6-8" over Richmond...(1/2)

Highs in the upper 30s and low 40s tomorrow under mostly sunny skies; colder Tuesday with upper teens in the morning and highs only reaching the freezing mark; same story Wednesday, and staying chilly the rest of the week into next weekend. #Virginia #Maryland #DC #RVA

Just rain so far for far southeast #Virginia, with temperatures in the low 40s east of Charlottesville, but temperatures will fall this afternoon into the mid to upper 30s, and that's when we'll start seeing some light snow along the 95 corridor, slowly spreading east to the coast. #RVA

Snow across central and northeast #Maryland this morning, some mixed precip in a thin line further south from Chantilly to Charlottesville to Danville; not expecting much if any accumulation with temps generally just above freezing.

There’s still a high degree of uncertainty about the extent of snowfall on Sunday; the GFS model continues to favor snow over Virginia Beach but also reaching #RVA, with a good several inches even to Richmond; but the European model and other models have only light snow barely reaching VA Beach...

Tomorrow! Tell Hanover Planning Commission we don’t want our county plundered for AI!

Snow chances have all but dried up in the extended range forecast. Cold air returns after tomorrow and sticks around through the end of the month but it just isn't going to sync up with any approaching storm systems. #RVA #Virginia #Maryland #DC

Both snow threats (Thursday and then Sunday) seem to have vanished from the forecast models starting last night still absent from today's model runs. However, the overall pattern will remain favorable through the end of the month so they could reappear at any point.

Still watching the evening of Thursday the 15th for our next shot at snow across much of #Virginia and #Maryland, IF an area of low pressure dives south enough so that we're on the cold side of that low. Right now, this is looking like a minor event even if everything comes together just right....

Flood advisory in effect now for #RVA and Chesterfield for minor flooding in low lying and poor drainage areas

8:30am radar check: another round of light to moderate showers moving through central #Virginia this morning. Rain will become much more scattered this afternoon/early evening. #RVA

A few showers arrive today across the Shenandoah Valley and also far northern #Virginia; rain will make its way further east tomorrow.

A bit cooler today but still very mild for this time of year; 60s return tomorrow. A cold front arrives Saturday with widespread rain across western and central #Virginia and #Maryland. Maybe half an inch or a little more across the western third of VA, lesser totals around the I-95 corridor

Staying quite warm through Saturday, in the mid/upper 60s, then a cold front sweeps through Saturday afternoon with wind gusts to 35, 40 mph and a few showers; rain will be most widespread out towards Charlottesville, Lynchburg, Roanoke then become more spotty as the front moves east. #RVA #Virginia

Cloudy again tomorrow but warmer, highs around 60; sun returns Wednesday and highs get up into the mid 60s, then we approach 70 towards the end of the week and next Saturday.