How can tariffs improve welfare? Your country needs market power. A quick explainer below 👇🏻

HAROON BHORAT (@haroonbhorat.bsky.social, our colleague at @dpru-uct.bsky.social): Getting the numbers right on the informal economy www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2...

Trump’s new tariffs are an abomination. It’s not just the economics that is backwards. It’s also the geopolitics/national security angle. Countries have always used trade for geopolitical reasons. But it’s by opening your market to other nations that you get them to align with you, not by closing.

Trump's claim that foreigners will pay the tariffs in full. They assume a small but positive passthrough indicating that domestic prices will rise by 25% of the tariffs.

Their use of elasticity is inconsistent and would not pass an undergraduate test (where is the price effect on the value of imports?) The assumption that exports will be unaffected is crazy. Note also that their (necessary) assumption that domestic import prices will rise contradicts +

This is what Trump's "economists" say about how they calculated the "reciprocal" tariffs. Don[t be fooled by the equation. They commit countless crimes against economics. ustr.gov/issue-areas/... +

But of course this equation and calculation are a travesty. It is a silly attempt to provide a veneer of respectability to a nonsensical, arbitrary, and ad hoc political decision. Whoever produced this (and indeed all the economists working for Trump) should be embarrassed of themselves.

Looking back at our 40th anniversary reception this week! Our panel discussion highlighted the importance of cross-sectoral cooperation: every level of organization has a role to play in finding sustainable solutions. @FCA_global @Ulkoministerio @Columbia @uonbi

Fear of floating by Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo (2002)

On this day in 1934, Daniel Kahneman was born. He wrote 'Thinking Fast and Slow' and won a Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on behavioural economics. Have a listen to learn more. Also born on this day were James Tobin (1918) & William Beveridge (1879). #EconSky open.spotify.com/episode/6XoJ...

Tomorrow the US Administration imposes the heaviest taxes since the 1930s on Americans who buy imports. In this new brief from @ucsandiego.bsky.social, leading economists Evenett & Muendler estimate the harm to US workers in all 50 states—> econweb.ucsd.edu/muendler/dow... | cc @piie.com

Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators by Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin (1995)

Support Project Syndicate (@projectsyndicate.bsky.social). "For every donation, large or small, you’ll get one year of digital access to Project Syndicate for free – because the world needs informed perspectives now more than ever." Link: donations.cafamerica.org/project-synd...

Got a null result? It’s not the end of the story. Null findings play a crucial role in building evidence—helping refine theories, guide policy, and avoid publication bias. Learn more:

A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates by Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A (1985)

Is Public R&D a Complement or Substitute for Private R&D? A Review of the Econometric Evidence by Paul A. David & Bronwyn H. Hall & Andrew A. Toole (2000)

The implementation of TWFE: reghdfe Y D##T, absorb(state year) robust The causal implication of the TWFE coefficient:

Working from home has stabilized at about 25 percent of all full worked days in the US according to a new analysis of 9 different US datasets, from Shelby R. Buckman, Jose Maria Barrero, @nickbloom.bsky.social, and Steven J. Davis https://www.nber.org/papers/w33508

Trump's enablers have made a Faustian bargain to advance their particular agendas, but they are as likely to find themselves at each other's throats www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...

Capital Deepening and Non-Balanced Economic Growth by Daron Acemoglu & Veronica Guerrieri (2006)

The Old Volksraad Mense™ have found allies in the Trump gauleiters and their opposition to diversity and inclusivity and globalism, and in the European right and a media that is in a panic about dark-skinned people taking over Europe.

Why Do Firms Train? Theory and Evidence by Acemoglu, D. & Pischki, J.S. (1996)

“The children are always ours, every single one of them, all over the globe; and I am beginning to suspect that whoever is incapable of recognizing this may be incapable of morality.” James Baldwin

A Proposal for a Debt-adjustment Facility in the IMF by Arjun Sengupta (1988)

"Any idiot can face a crisis ; it 's this day-to-day living that wears you out." - Anton Chekhov.

A new model of collusion in the labor market finds employer cartels fix a wage ceiling and harm to workers large in slack or concentrated markets or if combined with product market collusion, from Axel Gottfries and Gregor Jarosch https://www.nber.org/papers/w33501

How will cuts to USAID affect the world's poorest? Insights from my research in Zambia www.youtube.com/shorts/e59VL...

A recent study shows that tax effects on the distribution of wealth in 🇨🇭Swiss cantons are concentrated at the upper end of the scale. www.ubscenter.uzh.ch/en/news_even... #EconomicsForSociety #UZH #shareUBS @izmartinez86.bsky.social @samiramarti.bsky.social @florianscheuer.bsky.social @econ.uzh.ch

Report on Social Intergenerational Mobility in Mozambique shows that the country is experiencing educational mobility but it also evidences traces of occupational immobility #SocialMobilityMoz

The Resource Curse literature has considerable empirical support but it has led too many economists & others to conclude that resource economies are doomed. 😱 We offer some hope in our new @OUPAcademic @UNUWIDER open access book 👇 www.wider.unu.edu/publication/...

SA is producing more doctors than ever, but many can't find jobs in the public sector — even though hospitals need them.

🇨🇩DR Congo bans cobalt exports (for 4 months). Attempting to prop up a weak price after a surge in supply & slowing demand. Illustrated the cyclicality of metals prices, even if the long-term trend (🪫batteries etc) is favourable to the producer🇨🇩 www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

📈📉Managing cyclicality in resource revenues (not only from metals & minerals but also oil & gas) is discussed in our new @UNUWIDER @OUPAcademic (Open access) book👇 www.wider.unu.edu/publication/...

In an age of populism, how can we ensure that facts & evidence still matter in policymaking & international development? CSAE Director @gamblingondev.bsky.social joins Trudi Makhaya & @rory-stewart.bsky.social to discuss this in @voxdev.bsky.social's Development Dialogues voxdev.org/topic/instit...

South Africa has a Presidential Economic Advisory Council. Understanding who these economists are, and the ideas they advocate, should tell us a lot about the country's future economic policy. @drodrik.bsky.social @wandilesihlobo.bsky.social @haroonbhorat.bsky.social @antonioandreoni.bsky.social

🔊 PODCAST: The future of evidence-based policymaking & international development A #DevelopmentDialogue collab w/ @voxdev.bsky.social Guests @gamblingondev.bsky.social (@blavatnikschool.bsky.social) Trudi Makhaya & @rory-stewart.bsky.social (@yale.edu) LISTEN: egc.yale.edu/news/250224/... #EconSky

In partnership with @schmidtsciences.bsky.social, @simonhrjohnson.bsky.social, David Autor and I are seeking funding proposals from researchers conducting innovative field experiments on the labor economics of frontier AI. Expressions of interest due March 31. shapingwork.mit.edu/call-for-pro...

A new study from India 🇮🇳shows that children selling goods in markets often master mental arithmetic effortlessly—but the math skills don’t transfer to the classroom. See how the study explores how these learning environments shape different problem-solving abilities:

So sad to see IZA closing! I wish the current staff a smooth transition into new exciting positions elsewhere.

South African Police Minister Senzo Mchunu has reported a significant decline in crime across several categories, including murder, robbery, and sexual offences, during the last quarter of 2024.

10Y #Treasury is at 4.5%, down from 4.53% last week. How are shorter-term interest rates contributing to the change in the yield curve? #interest #econsky https://tinyurl.com/m7pdyyyf

Economists know it, but politicians rarely say it—globalization massively reduced global inequality. 🧪 #EconSky

#EconSky One way to see what a long way econometrics has come is to check out the semester exams for the 1908-09 statistics courses taught at Harvard by economics professor William Z. Ripley www.irwincollier.com/harvard-enro...

“In Syria, food and other support for nearly 900,000 people has been suspended. In West Africa, 3.4 million people have lost drug treatment for deadly tropical diseases. At least 328,000 HIV-positive people in 25 countries aren’t getting lifesaving drugs." www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Dear followers, this op-ed is based on one of the speeches I gave at the Paris AI summit. Thank you. Will We Squander the AI Opportunity? by Daron Acemoglu - Project Syndicate www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a...

Recently accepted by #QJE, “The Race Between Education, Technology, and the Minimum Wage,” by Jonathan Vogel (@jonathanvogel.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

Recently accepted by #QJE, “Generative AI at Work,” by Brynjolfsson (@erikbryn.bsky.social), Li, and Raymond (@lindseyraymond.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

Interested in learning what J-PAL has been up to over the past year? #EconSky Take a look at the 24-25 edition of Improving Lives through Evidence to see how rigorous research and strong partnerships shaped our work around the globe in 2024, and read about our priorities for 2025: buff.ly/431W1tN

These car brands have the cleanest supply chains