Ingushetia has created a new "sabotage and reconnaissance battalion" called Erzi – with the goal of it participating in Russia's war on Ukraine.

What's like to happen in Chechnya when Ramzan Kadyrov dies? In this week's newsletter, I outline different scenarios, from ordered transition to civil war, and then outline four key questions that will shape Chechnya's future.

My @civilnet.bsky.social interview on my trip to Northeast Syria (AANES), where I met with Islamized Armenians reclaiming their identity

What are the warning signs that insurgency could reemerge in the North Caucasus? How do we interpret violence in the region and know whether it heralds something more serious?

When Ramzan Kadyrov steps down as head of Chechnya, what happens? I've been playing around with visualising the different scenarios, based around two key questions: Does the Kremlin maintain control of the succession process? And do other influential actors accept a claim to power?

Security services in Stavropol Kray claim Victory Day counterterrorism victory, with nine people detained – most of whom are juveniles.

Penalising the failure to inform about terrorism makes sense in theory, but its vulnerable to abuse in practice.

Russian prosecutions of historical terrorism and insurgency cases look like an effort by the authorities to bolster statistics.

Who are the candidates to replace Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov? Kadyrov’s future was back in the news last week following an article by Novaya Gazeta about his efforts to secure his children’s future and his own comments about asking to be relieved of his duties.

Eleven Russian citizens who were detained in Tunisia in November 2024 have been released, after an investigation determined they were not involved in terrorism. They will return to Russia on two flights meduza.io/news/2025/04...

A man allegedly attacked police with a knife in Achkhoy-Martan, Chechnya. One of the policemen died of his wounds, and the attacker was killed by police. meduza.io/news/2025/04...

The FSB claims that it detained a member of the military who had been recruited by Ukraine and was planning an attack on the dormitory of cadets from military education facilities in Moscow Oblast. novayagazeta.ru/articles/202...

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met his counterparts from Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso in Moscow as part of an effort to "strengthen the whole suite" of relations between the countries.

Political violence is down in the North Caucasus for Q1 2025 compared to both Q1 2024 and Q4 2024. That’s true for both the number of terrorism-related incidents and their deadliness. But the fall is not the result of declining insurgent activity.

A resident of Chechnya has been sentenced to six years in prison on charges of financing terrorism. Prosecutors allege that the woman received a foreign currency transfer in 2017 and passed it on to a member of a banned international terrorist organisation located abroad.

A man has been detained in Karachayevo-Cherkessia after more than a year on the wanted list. He is accused of being a member of Prisoners’ Criminal Unity in 2020, which the authorities consider an extremist organisation promoting prison values and traditions. www.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/410...

Ismail Nalgiev, an Ingush activist and human rights defender who protested against the transfer of Ingushetian territory to Chechnya, has been released from a prison in the Stavropol region at the end of his sentence. oc-media.org/ingush-activ...

The Southern District Military Court has sentenced a resident of Stavropol Kray to 20 years in prison on charges of treason, preparing a terrorist attack, membership of a terrorist organisation, and preparing explosives.

Adam Kadyrov appointed as "curator" of the Chechen Interior Ministry. He is already "curator" of the Sheikh Mansur Battalion and the Russian University of Spetsnaz. istories.media/news/2025/04...

What does terrorism in the North Caucasus look like thus far in 2025? Well, in simple terms, there has been a decline in the number of terrorism-related incidents: From 26 in Q1 2024 to 21 in Q1 2025. Is that downward trend supported by casualty figures though?

The FSB has detained a Russian citizen on charges of planning a terrorist attack on an administrative building in Moscow. The authorities claim that the man was operating on instructions from the Ukrainian security services. www.rapsinews.ru/incident_new...

Stavropol resident Kristina Kastornaya sentenced to 19 years in prison on charges of treason and planning a terrorist attack. The FSB claim the woman was operating on instructions from the Ukrainian security services. zona.media/news/2025/03...

The Russia security services detained an 18-year-old resident of Crimea on charges of preparing an arson attack on a mosque, reportedly on instructions of people in Ukraine. zona.media/news/2025/03...

Vazhnyye istorii claims that relations between Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Russian President Vladimir Putin have deteriorated in recent months.

The Southern District Military Court sentenced Ingushetian resident Yunuz Bitiyev to six years in prison for public calls to terrorism.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov claims that there are now 36,243 people working in the Chechen security services. Chechnya has created multiple new units to help wage Russia’s war on Ukraine, but it has had to recruit lots of non-Russians and move people from existing units to staff them.

The Southern District Military Court has sentenced Ukrainian citizen Serhii Potynh to 18 years in prison on charges of planning a terrorist attack, membership of a terrorist community, and illegal possession of explosives.

Four Ingushetian residents, including two juveniles, stand accused of failing to inform the authorities about terrorism-related activities of acquaintances.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov claims that his regime has spent more than $440 million in extra-budgetary funds on supporting Russia's war on Ukraine. Kadyrov claims those funds have come from the Akhmat Kadyrov Foundation in the form of aid.

Confirmed: Chechen commander Khuseyn Mezhidov was at Hostomel in February 2022. I’ve been posting recently about an ongoing investigation into possible Chechen involvement in the Bucha massacre in the early stages of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

The daughters of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov have been removed from Russia's companies and legal persons register. Ayshat and Tabarik Kadyrova had companies registered in their name, unlike other family members who have hidden behind proxies. zona.media/news/2025/03...

Who is Khuseyn Mezhidov, one of the Chechen commanders potentially implicated in the Bucha massacre?

Apropos of absolutely nothing, I suddenly remembered the Twitter bot that would tweet “Всё намного хуже, чем было вчера” everyday. And I see it stopped in May 2023. What happened? Did it get better and I missed it? Did even the bot give up on it all? I must know!

BBC reports new figures on the number of victims of Russia's occupation of Bucha - and the massacre that accompanied its departure. According to data it has gained access to from the Bucha town council archive, 381 people died. Of these...

Khamzat Bakhayev, a Chechen native convicted of involvement in the murder of Russian opposition politician Boris Nemtsov in 2015, will be transferred from a penal colony in Russia’s Kirov region to Chechnya. Bakhayev won an appeal to secure the transfer. oc-media.org/chechen-conv...

Ayshat Kadyrova has become the sole owner of the Chechen Mineral Water company, which produces soft drinks, in March 2025; the company, which was founded in 2007, had originally belonged to the Akhmat Kadyrov Foundation.

I ordered my copy, and you should get one, too. @jeremymorris.bsky.social is one of the sharpest minds out there. The field needs scholars like him.

What’s the evidence of Chechen involvement in the Bucha massacre in March 2022? There were plenty of eyewitness reports circulating in the media that either suggested or directly claimed that Chechens were operating in or near the town. But... bsky.app/profile/thre...

Chechnya has created (yet another) new Ministry of Defence unit: The 270th Motor Rifle Regiment Akhmat-Kavkaz. It will deploy straight away to Ukraine.

Investigating Chechen involvement in the Buch massacre: An accountability project I'm starting a new side project looking at the nature of Chechen involvement in the early days of Russia’s war on Ukraine, focusing in particular on the massacre in Bucha in March 2022.

The security services have reported on the discovery of an arms cache containing firearms and explosives in Sunzha, Ingushetia.

The security services have reported on the detention and arrest of three teenagers from Krasnodar on charges of planning a terrorist attack. They claim that they agreed with an anonymous person via chat to attack railroad infrastructure in return for money. www.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/409...

Three journalists were reportedly detained in Chad on charges of links to the Wagner Group. Their lawyer said they had been charged with espionage, conspiracy and attacking state institutions. Russia has been highly active in the disinformation space in Africa, but this goes beyond that

The FSB claims that it thwarted a terrorism attack in Stavropol Kray. According to the security services, the group of four local residents had planned to carry out the attack on Defenders of the Fatherland Day. I'm not sure the authorities have quite thought through the claim though...

How can you tell there's something 'fishy' about the official version of a terrorism incident in Russia? There's no straight answer to this but there are clues.

A journalist's quote, cited in Z. Tüfekçi's Twitter and Tear Gas: "I first censor myself... And then my editor censors me, if I haven't been mild enough. And then the owners of the newspaper... And if something is published anyway, especially in defiance, someone from the government calls our boss.

I don't think @drjademcglynn.bsky.social talks about her newsletter enough (it was ages before I even realised she had one!). So I'll talk about it instead: as with all her work, it's excellent and thought provoking.

These awards are obviously ridiculous. On the plus side, though, if there were ever transitional justice in Chechnya, they do make it easier to demonstrate the ties between individuals and units that commit crimes.

A recent counterterrorism op in Dagestan highlights the challenges of monitoring information-poor environments. Russia’s security services conducted a special op in Makhachkala on 5 March. The officials claim that 4 died resisting arrest, while a 5th accomplice was detained. The problem?

The Southern District Military Court sentenced Sevastopol resident Igor Sudilovskiy to 17 years in prison on charges of preparing a terrorist attack.