Ran my little script again after the Qatar GP, and these are the updated probabilities of each driver taking the title next weekend. Difference indicated is to the probabilities after the sprint. Norris: ~60% (-14%) Verstappen: ~34% (+14%) Piastri: ~6% (No change)

Rumours about the FIA currently investigating the McLarens are wholly unfounded. The FIA have already released the post race scrutineering documents, and the checks include passed plank wear tests for both Piastri and Norris.

The Championship Maths are super simple this week. One race to go, that will decide it all. This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris in Abu Dhabi to take the title: Verstappen: 12.0 points Piastri: 16.0 points 1/3 🧵

Ran my little F1 championship odds model again after the Qatar sprint. These are the updated numbers: Norris: ~74% (+6%) Verstappen: ~20% (-8%) Piastri: ~6% (+2%)

Updates submitted for the Qatar GP: VCARB - Front wing: Gurney option for front flap McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull, Mercedes, Aston Martin, Alpine, Haas, Williams, Sauber: No updates submitted.

Las Vegas puts on an incredible show, but does it actually work as a Formula 1 race? Ticket price drops, odd podium ceremonies, and manufactured hype makes me question it. Read my take on why F1 has a Las Vegas sized problem 👇 raceweekrecap.com/2025/11/24/f...

Updated the model after McLaren’s double DSQ and refined how it treats DSQs and DNFs. The numbers shifted. A lot. Title odds after Las Vegas: Norris: ~68% Verstappen: ~28% Piastri: ~4%

Both McLarens are disqualified from the Las Vegas GP, so lets redo the maths: This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris per weekend after Las Vegas to take the title: Piastri: 12.0 points per weekend Verstappen: 12.0 points per weekend 1/2 🧵

I put together a small script that calculates the percentage chances for the remaining contenders to become champion. After today, these are the odds: Norris: ~96% Piastri: ~3% Verstappen: ~1%

Verstappen keeps the hope alive, and Piastri slips further. This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris per weekend after Las Vegas to take the title: Piastri: 16.0 points per weekend Verstappen: 21.0 points per weekend 1/2 🧵

Vegas timings always throw me off, but here are the updates for this weekend: McLaren: - Front wing: Trimmed Front Wing Flap - Rear wing: Reduced Chord Rear Wing Flap Red Bull: - Front wing: Front wing flaps with reduced cambers and chords VCARB: - Rear wing: Updated rear wing flap profile 1/2 🧵

If you are confused about who actually won the Massa vs FIA ruling, you are not alone. Here is what the judge decided: 1/5 🧵

The Race Week Recap has been a bit quieter lately, and there’s a reason for that. With some big changes in my full-time job and a new schedule coming in January, the format will shift toward more flexible, topic-driven posts. raceweekrecap.com/2025/11/20/a...

If I had invested in the various F1 parent companies in November 2015, a decade ago, how would I be doing today? Let's assume an initial investment of €100, with an additional investment of another €100 every month since then. 1/8 🧵

If my count is correct, these are the drivers who will be forced to leave F1 Academy after Las Vegas, unless they manage to get the one year extension recently introduced: - Doriane Pin - Tina Hausmann - Chloe Chong - Lia Block - Maya Weug - Chloe Chambers

F1 fans: We want some drama! Vegas weather: Bet. (Video courtesy of Christen Drummond / NEWS 3 Las Vegas)

Give me your best plots for the F1 2 movie. My take: Archaeologists accidentally unearth a cursed sarcophagus underneath the Monaco pit lane, awakening the ancient spirit of a vengeful charioteer. The curse falls on Sonny, who becomes a zombie obsessed with brains and racing.

After the debate about F1 ticket prices flared up again, allow me a bit of self-promo: Come visit us in the European Le Mans Series. 1/5 🧵

Yesterday Sky Sports announced Halo, "A new TikTok channel created specifically for female sports fans." I'll let you judge how well that went over.

Toto Wolff is finalising a deal to sell 5% of his stake in @MercedesAMGF1. So what does that mean for the team’s power structure? (Spoiler: nothing changes.) 1/4 🧵

John Elkann says Ferrari "needs drivers who think less about themselves and more about the team." If that's really what he believes, then maybe Ferrari should stop signing world champions and start advancing more drivers through their own ranks to the main team. 1/3 🧵

Championship permutations in the current situation: There are 3 races and 1 sprint left. If Piastri wins all 3 races + the sprint, and Norris finishes 2nd in each, Norris wins the title by 2 points. 1/4 🧵

Piastri drops back further, the ball is now firmly in Norris' court. This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris per weekend after Brazil to take the title: 1/3 🧵

Welp.

Updates submitted for the Brazilian GP: None. Zero. Nada. Not a single team has any updated parts for this weekend 😅

Race Director's Event Notes are out for the Brazilian GP, and with it the changes to the circuit for this year's race: 1/3 🧵

I really like Williams getting a new old logo. Can we have VCARB go back to Minardi too? 😅

Since we're now in November, that means all of the Formula 1 teams have submitted their financial statements for 2024, and we can have a look at how they're doing financially. We'll compare them to their 2023 numbers. 1/10 🧵

🤦‍♂️ www.rideapart.com/news/777358/...

Piastri fumbles and leaves the championship lead to Norris. This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris per weekend after Mexico to take the title: 1/2 🧵

It took them 21 laps to find out that they should probably have a look at Verstappen going over the grass after the start? 😅 Okay...

A couple of days ago, we got Porsche's Q3 earnings report, and now their withdrawal from WEC suddenly looks less like a surprise and more like a necessity. The company reported a €966 million operating loss, far worse than the €611 million analysts had expected. 1/4 🧵

I keep seeing FP1 in Mexico being referred to as "record breaking" in terms of rookies. Only problem is that the Abu Dhabi 2023 has it beat. 1/2 🧵

In my opinion, Apple’s F1 deal is a long-term play to build a broader sports portfolio on AppleTV and eventually launch a dedicated sports tier, just like every other streaming service. 1/4 🧵

Colton Herta is joining Hitech in Formula 2 next year. While I still don't really undestand the logic behind the move, he's secured a seat with a team that should be fighting for the championship next year. 1/2 🧵

Verstappen takes a big chunk, Norris takes a smaller one, but they both catch up to Piastri in the fight for the championship. This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Piastri per weekend after COTA to take the title: 1/3 🧵

Tim Mayer has filed complaints with the FIA Ethics Committee over the exclusion of himself and two other candidates from the presidential election. The committee is controlled by… incumbent president Mohammed Ben Sulayem.

Apple acquiring the exclusive F1 broadcasting rights in the US, but adds "F1 TV Premium [...] will continue to be available in the U.S. via an Apple TV subscription only and will be free for those who subscribe" to the press release. There is hope yet, my American friends.

Zak Brown, Toto Wolff and Laurent Mekies in the Team Principals' press conference tomorrow 👀 Should be fun.

The revelations in court that Lando Norris paid for testing and FP1 sessions aren't news to anyone who's worked in motorsport. Drivers paying teams for sessions, either directly or via sponsors, is the norm, not the exception. 1/5 🧵

F1 Grid Gigs is less about providing people with entertainment pre-race, and more about providing American Express with a branding opportunity.

I keep seeing these Zak Brown and Quadrant claims being thrown around, so let's just set some facts straight: - Zak Brown was never CEO of Quadrant. - Zak Brown was one of four legally appointed Directors of Quadrant. 1/3 🧵

Ferrari's stock value ($RACE) dropped 15% today, but contrary to popular belief, the Formula 1 team has nothing to do with it. At its Capital Markets Day in Maranello, Ferrari slightly raised its 2025 forecast, but the real disappointment came from their 2030 projections. 1/5 🧵

So, how's everyone feeling about "papaya rules" these days? Here's what's new in F1 and motorsports since last week: 1/6 🧵

Mohammed Ben Sulayem has successfully set himself up to face the FIA Presidential Elections without any opponents. Although three other individuals - Tim Mayer, Laura Villars, and Virginie Philipott - expressed intentions to run against him, all three have now become ineligible to do so. 1/8

I'm going to miss you, Porsche 963 🥲

McLaren clinches the Constructors' Championship, but the Drivers' is still wide open. This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Piastri per weekend after Singapore to take the title: 1/2 🧵

A Singapore GP race week where the FIA declared a heat hazard, but where it also looks like it's going to be very, very wet. Interesting. Here's what's new in F1 and motorsports since last week: 1/5 🧵

After having been away for some ELMS action (with my team clinching the LMP3 championship, woo!) it's back to our regularly scheduled programming. Here's what's new in F1 and motorsport since last week: 1/5 🧵

It does indeed keep giving. Digging a bit more, and it turns out that our friend William John Storey has been named Director of a company called RE Drinks Distribution on 11 July 2025. 1/4 🧵