Ebola's R0 in African outbreaks is around 2, driven by funeral practices and care of the sick without PPE. In a developed-country setting, the R0 falls well below 1. This is one of the reasons why the risk of an Ebola outbreak in developed countries is low.

My latest article: How flu overtook COVID as Australia’s deadliest respiratory virus theconversation.com/how-flu-over...

Ebola in the DRC. Hantavirus on a cruise ship. Almost nobody mentions: about 8% of your DNA came from viruses. One captured viral gene is why mammals can grow a placenta. New piece: medium.com/@adrian.este...

My latest article in The Conversation. Why diphtheria, whooping cough and measles have come back in Australia theconversation.com/why-diphther...

Australia is seeing a sharp rise in diphtheria cases in 2026, mainly in the NT, with a recent death highlighting how serious it is. Diphtheria can cause severe respiratory illness from a bacterial toxin. Childhood vaccination works well, but immunity fades. Many young adults are under-protected.

The elderly are the group that tend to end up in hospital with COVID, yet few protect themselves. Read my latest Medium article: medium.com/@adrian.este...

Loneliness sits awkwardly in public health. It’s not infectious. It’s not a classic lifestyle risk. But it still affects mortality. The “as deadly as smoking” claim isn’t quite right, but the real story matters. My latest article in Medium: medium.com/@adrian.este...

I just published America Left the WHO. Here’s What That Actually Means medium.com/p/america-le...

I just published The world has moved on from COVID. The risk hasn’t. medium.com/p/the-world-...

Latest data from the Australian Department of Health, Disability and Ageing, show that Only 13% of people aged 75 and over are up to date with their booster. We need our governments, GPs and pharmacists working to improve this dire situation.

If you’ve had COVID and never quite felt the same afterwards — you’re not imagining it. Long COVID sits in an uncomfortable space: real, common enough to matter, but still not fully understood. I’ve written a plain-English explainer on symptoms, risk, and recovery. medium.com/@adrian.este...

A quick explainer on what WHO actually does seems to be resonating. I you haven't see nit: medium.com/@adrian.este...

Most people have heard of the WHO. Far fewer could explain what it actually does. Having worked within it, I’ve tried to set out how it works in practice, and why it matters. medium.com/@adrian.este...

During COVID. many epidemiologists found themselves explaining complex, uncertain data in real time - often without any training in communication. I wrote about what it was actually like: medium.com/@adrian.este...

rdcu.be/e9ZSc My new article about epidemiologists and the media. Some of us got thrown into the media spotlight during the early years of the COVID pandemic, with little or no training.

Another good article from The Conversation about how measles is impacting on the USA (and many developed countries). theconversation.com/we-study-pan...

Journals are always struggling for reviewers, but many of them have such awful websites, it puts people off from accepting.

This is one of the many wonderful projects I am involved with www.talkingscrubs.com.au

Temporarily locked out of X due to a verification issue. Account still visible, just awaiting reset.

This week’s uptick in SA COVID notifications highlights a broader issue. Without wastewater data or routine hospital reporting, we’re relying on a single surveillance stream. For respiratory viruses, triangulation is everything.

South Australian COVID notifications rose from 79 to 104 this week. Small numbers — but a clear upward move. If this continues next week, we may be seeing the start of the summer wave that never quite materialised.

This week’s uptick in SA COVID notifications highlights a broader issue. Without wastewater data or routine hospital reporting, we’re relying on a single surveillance stream. For respiratory viruses, triangulation is everything.

South Australian COVID notifications rose from 79 to 104 this week. Small numbers — but a clear upward move. If this continues next week, we may be seeing the start of the summer wave that never quite materialised.

Adelaide Aquatic Centre closures look like a precautionary response, not an outbreak. Parasites such as Cryptosporidium are uncommon, chlorine-resistant, and well known to pool managers. Temporary closures and deep cleaning are standard practice. Risk remains low. Public health working as intended.

Case numbers reflect testing, not true spread. Hospitalisations, aged-care outbreaks and wastewater matter more — but in Australia they’re reported inconsistently. The new CDC has a real opportunity to fix this.

COVID, flu and RSV haven’t suddenly changed. They now circulate year-round, but testing and reporting don’t. When surveillance weakens, outbreaks aren’t prevented — they’re detected later. Hospitalisations/aged-care homes/wastewater now matter more than raw case counts. Hopefully, CDC will help.

This is why raw case numbers now mislead. Surveillance should shift from population-wide testing to fragments: hospitals, aged care, wastewater - however, very sporadic reporting in Australia at the moment. When signals weaken, outbreaks don’t vanish — they arrive late.

COVID notifications in South Australia are very low for summer. Why? Short answer: this says more about surveillance than about the virus disappearing.

Australia isn’t facing new viruses. We’re facing weaker surveillance. When testing and reporting drop, outbreaks don’t disappear — they’re just seen later, making events look sudden and alarming.

Herd immunity isn’t ideology — it’s arithmetic. Dilute school-entry requirements and you shift risk onto infants, immunocompromised kids, and pregnant women.

The South Australian Dept of Health has just announced a local measles case for someone with no travel history. This is a concern. measles is lurking out there.

35 degrees at 8am in the morning - ridiculous. Even my dog didn't want to go out for a walk!

BREAKING: WHO announces the UK has lost its measles elimination status. Australia is close to the same threshold. #Measles #VaccinesWork

Lowest COVID weekly case numbers for at least 2 years.

A lot of worry about myocarditis after COVID vaccines in kids. Large England study shows it’s rare, usually short-lived, and less common than after COVID infection itself. In short: infection carries the bigger risk. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

New variant of the flu virus is driving surge of cases across the US and Canada theconversation.com/new-variant-... Another good article from The Conversation. Unusually for The Conversation, I did notice a typo "subclave" instead of "subclade".

South Carolina reports hundreds of measles cases, with rapid growth in recent days — the U.S. is seeing one of the largest outbreaks in years amid low vaccination coverage.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... Study of essential workers finds neurological Long COVID linked to rises in plasma pTau-181 after infection, especially with long-lasting central symptoms (brain fog etc). pTau-181 increases assoc. with amyloid changes. Early biomarker signal, not diagnosis.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41452424/ Large meta-analysis (250M+ person-years) - COVID-19 linked to ~50% higher relative risk of some autoimmune diseases. Risk higher after severe infection, lower in vaccinated people. Evidence moderate–low → signal, not certainty. Supports vaccination & follow-up.

www.audacy.com/wwjnewsradio... Reports that SARS-CoV-2 was found in wastewater from ~96% of flights sound alarming, but when global prevalence is high (2022), almost every large flight will include at least one infected passenger. This is non-infectious RNA. Useful for surveillance, not panic.

I’m also posting public health & epidemiology commentary on X/Twitter: @profesterman

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/EGKVVX... Small trial - but amazing results, and hope for those with resistant depression

www.ausdoc.com.au/news/experts... Ausdoc is a great website. Worth joining

Australia is seeing an off-season flu surge with 4,100+ lab-confirmed cases so far this year, many linked to highly transmissible influenza A(H3N2) subclade K. If symptomatic, get tested, consider antivirals if high-risk, and stay home. 2026 vaccines due Apr–May. #AusFlu #Flu2026 #PublicHealth

jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... New epi methods guidance (TARGET) helps separate ‘association’ from credible causal inference in observational studies.

www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/cov... We have a similar situation in Australia, with only 53% of people in Residential Aged Care up to date with their booster.

Viral outbreaks are always on the horizon – here are the viruses an infectious disease expert is watching in 2026 theconversation.com/viral-outbre... Good overview. We do now have vaccines against HPAI H5N1, and many countries are stockpiling doses.

Flu alert: Clade K H3N2 driving Australia's record 2025 season. Cases: 457k+ Jan–Nov (vs 200k norm). Extended May–Nov. Elderly ≥65 uptake: 60.5% – need >75% to blunt waves. ​ Clade K drifted but vax ~30–40% VE vs severe. Get boosted. #EpiSky #FluAus

www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...? Uptake now 93% Need 95% for herd immunity.

HPV vaccination rates are down in Queensland. I have explained why in the Courier Mail and in an interview with 7News Sunshine Coast. It is mainly due to parents not signing or returning consent forms. Current system is paper-based and opt-in. Need electronic and opt-out.