If you’ve had COVID and never quite felt the same afterwards — you’re not imagining it. Long COVID sits in an uncomfortable space: real, common enough to matter, but still not fully understood. I’ve written a plain-English explainer on symptoms, risk, and recovery. medium.com/@adrian.este...

A quick explainer on what WHO actually does seems to be resonating. I you haven't see nit: medium.com/@adrian.este...

Most people have heard of the WHO. Far fewer could explain what it actually does. Having worked within it, I’ve tried to set out how it works in practice, and why it matters. medium.com/@adrian.este...

During COVID. many epidemiologists found themselves explaining complex, uncertain data in real time - often without any training in communication. I wrote about what it was actually like: medium.com/@adrian.este...

rdcu.be/e9ZSc My new article about epidemiologists and the media. Some of us got thrown into the media spotlight during the early years of the COVID pandemic, with little or no training.

Another good article from The Conversation about how measles is impacting on the USA (and many developed countries). theconversation.com/we-study-pan...

Journals are always struggling for reviewers, but many of them have such awful websites, it puts people off from accepting.

This is one of the many wonderful projects I am involved with www.talkingscrubs.com.au

Temporarily locked out of X due to a verification issue. Account still visible, just awaiting reset.

This week’s uptick in SA COVID notifications highlights a broader issue. Without wastewater data or routine hospital reporting, we’re relying on a single surveillance stream. For respiratory viruses, triangulation is everything.

South Australian COVID notifications rose from 79 to 104 this week. Small numbers — but a clear upward move. If this continues next week, we may be seeing the start of the summer wave that never quite materialised.

This week’s uptick in SA COVID notifications highlights a broader issue. Without wastewater data or routine hospital reporting, we’re relying on a single surveillance stream. For respiratory viruses, triangulation is everything.

South Australian COVID notifications rose from 79 to 104 this week. Small numbers — but a clear upward move. If this continues next week, we may be seeing the start of the summer wave that never quite materialised.

Adelaide Aquatic Centre closures look like a precautionary response, not an outbreak. Parasites such as Cryptosporidium are uncommon, chlorine-resistant, and well known to pool managers. Temporary closures and deep cleaning are standard practice. Risk remains low. Public health working as intended.

Case numbers reflect testing, not true spread. Hospitalisations, aged-care outbreaks and wastewater matter more — but in Australia they’re reported inconsistently. The new CDC has a real opportunity to fix this.

COVID, flu and RSV haven’t suddenly changed. They now circulate year-round, but testing and reporting don’t. When surveillance weakens, outbreaks aren’t prevented — they’re detected later. Hospitalisations/aged-care homes/wastewater now matter more than raw case counts. Hopefully, CDC will help.

This is why raw case numbers now mislead. Surveillance should shift from population-wide testing to fragments: hospitals, aged care, wastewater - however, very sporadic reporting in Australia at the moment. When signals weaken, outbreaks don’t vanish — they arrive late.

COVID notifications in South Australia are very low for summer. Why? Short answer: this says more about surveillance than about the virus disappearing.

Australia isn’t facing new viruses. We’re facing weaker surveillance. When testing and reporting drop, outbreaks don’t disappear — they’re just seen later, making events look sudden and alarming.

Herd immunity isn’t ideology — it’s arithmetic. Dilute school-entry requirements and you shift risk onto infants, immunocompromised kids, and pregnant women.

The South Australian Dept of Health has just announced a local measles case for someone with no travel history. This is a concern. measles is lurking out there.

35 degrees at 8am in the morning - ridiculous. Even my dog didn't want to go out for a walk!

BREAKING: WHO announces the UK has lost its measles elimination status. Australia is close to the same threshold. #Measles #VaccinesWork

Lowest COVID weekly case numbers for at least 2 years.

A lot of worry about myocarditis after COVID vaccines in kids. Large England study shows it’s rare, usually short-lived, and less common than after COVID infection itself. In short: infection carries the bigger risk. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

New variant of the flu virus is driving surge of cases across the US and Canada theconversation.com/new-variant-... Another good article from The Conversation. Unusually for The Conversation, I did notice a typo "subclave" instead of "subclade".

South Carolina reports hundreds of measles cases, with rapid growth in recent days — the U.S. is seeing one of the largest outbreaks in years amid low vaccination coverage.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... Study of essential workers finds neurological Long COVID linked to rises in plasma pTau-181 after infection, especially with long-lasting central symptoms (brain fog etc). pTau-181 increases assoc. with amyloid changes. Early biomarker signal, not diagnosis.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41452424/ Large meta-analysis (250M+ person-years) - COVID-19 linked to ~50% higher relative risk of some autoimmune diseases. Risk higher after severe infection, lower in vaccinated people. Evidence moderate–low → signal, not certainty. Supports vaccination & follow-up.

www.audacy.com/wwjnewsradio... Reports that SARS-CoV-2 was found in wastewater from ~96% of flights sound alarming, but when global prevalence is high (2022), almost every large flight will include at least one infected passenger. This is non-infectious RNA. Useful for surveillance, not panic.

I’m also posting public health & epidemiology commentary on X/Twitter: @profesterman

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/EGKVVX... Small trial - but amazing results, and hope for those with resistant depression

www.ausdoc.com.au/news/experts... Ausdoc is a great website. Worth joining

Australia is seeing an off-season flu surge with 4,100+ lab-confirmed cases so far this year, many linked to highly transmissible influenza A(H3N2) subclade K. If symptomatic, get tested, consider antivirals if high-risk, and stay home. 2026 vaccines due Apr–May. #AusFlu #Flu2026 #PublicHealth

jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... New epi methods guidance (TARGET) helps separate ‘association’ from credible causal inference in observational studies.

www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/cov... We have a similar situation in Australia, with only 53% of people in Residential Aged Care up to date with their booster.

Viral outbreaks are always on the horizon – here are the viruses an infectious disease expert is watching in 2026 theconversation.com/viral-outbre... Good overview. We do now have vaccines against HPAI H5N1, and many countries are stockpiling doses.

Flu alert: Clade K H3N2 driving Australia's record 2025 season. Cases: 457k+ Jan–Nov (vs 200k norm). Extended May–Nov. Elderly ≥65 uptake: 60.5% – need >75% to blunt waves. ​ Clade K drifted but vax ~30–40% VE vs severe. Get boosted. #EpiSky #FluAus

www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...? Uptake now 93% Need 95% for herd immunity.

HPV vaccination rates are down in Queensland. I have explained why in the Courier Mail and in an interview with 7News Sunshine Coast. It is mainly due to parents not signing or returning consent forms. Current system is paper-based and opt-in. Need electronic and opt-out.

A new systematic review of 64 studies (2.4 million people, 20 countries) shows long COVID clusters into distinct symptom patterns. Key clusters: • Fatigue (often with pain, brain fog, breathlessness) • Respiratory • Neurologic • GI • Olfactory/gustatory & cardiopulmonary patterns

👋 I’m Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics & Epidemiology (Adelaide University, ex-WHO). I post daily, evidence-based updates on infectious diseases, outbreaks & vaccine policy – focused on Australia & global health. Follow for concise #EpiSky briefings.

A highly transmissible H3N2 influenza subclade K that contributes to a prolonged 2025 season in Australia is now linked to record outbreaks in the US and UK, overwhelming healthcare systems despite vaccination still reducing severity. Vaccination remains critical.

Measles is back on the radar in Australia: multiple exposure alerts tied to international travel. If you’re unsure about your MMR status (esp. born after 1965), check now—vaccination protects you and stops onward spread.

A Happy New Year to all my followers. My resolution is to be more active on BlueSky in future. Also, now happy to have moved to our new School of Public Health at Adelaide University.

Is there much COVID around? Do I need the new booster shot LP.8.1? theconversation.com/is-there-muc... My new article for The Conversation

More people died from influenza than COVID-19 in August, for the first time since the height of the pandemic, according to the ABS. 265 people died from or with influenza compared with 195 deaths associated with COVID-19.

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/... New research shows seasonal flu vaccines could also offer some protection against H5N1 bird flu. In ferrets (our best model for human flu), vaccinated animals had milder illness and lower virus levels after H5N1 exposure.

Queensland: The measles outbreak tied to overseas travel (particularly from SE Asia) continues. Queensland Health has issued alerts after exposure incidents including at Cairns Hospital maternity ward. Masking is now required in high‑risk hospital wards.

www.medicalrepublic.com.au/nasal-flu-va... This is good news