35 degrees at 8am in the morning - ridiculous. Even my dog didn't want to go out for a walk!

BREAKING: WHO announces the UK has lost its measles elimination status. Australia is close to the same threshold. #Measles #VaccinesWork

Lowest COVID weekly case numbers for at least 2 years.

A lot of worry about myocarditis after COVID vaccines in kids. Large England study shows it’s rare, usually short-lived, and less common than after COVID infection itself. In short: infection carries the bigger risk. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

New variant of the flu virus is driving surge of cases across the US and Canada theconversation.com/new-variant-... Another good article from The Conversation. Unusually for The Conversation, I did notice a typo "subclave" instead of "subclade".

South Carolina reports hundreds of measles cases, with rapid growth in recent days — the U.S. is seeing one of the largest outbreaks in years amid low vaccination coverage.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... Study of essential workers finds neurological Long COVID linked to rises in plasma pTau-181 after infection, especially with long-lasting central symptoms (brain fog etc). pTau-181 increases assoc. with amyloid changes. Early biomarker signal, not diagnosis.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41452424/ Large meta-analysis (250M+ person-years) - COVID-19 linked to ~50% higher relative risk of some autoimmune diseases. Risk higher after severe infection, lower in vaccinated people. Evidence moderate–low → signal, not certainty. Supports vaccination & follow-up.

www.audacy.com/wwjnewsradio... Reports that SARS-CoV-2 was found in wastewater from ~96% of flights sound alarming, but when global prevalence is high (2022), almost every large flight will include at least one infected passenger. This is non-infectious RNA. Useful for surveillance, not panic.

I’m also posting public health & epidemiology commentary on X/Twitter: @profesterman

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/EGKVVX... Small trial - but amazing results, and hope for those with resistant depression

www.ausdoc.com.au/news/experts... Ausdoc is a great website. Worth joining

Australia is seeing an off-season flu surge with 4,100+ lab-confirmed cases so far this year, many linked to highly transmissible influenza A(H3N2) subclade K. If symptomatic, get tested, consider antivirals if high-risk, and stay home. 2026 vaccines due Apr–May. #AusFlu #Flu2026 #PublicHealth

jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... New epi methods guidance (TARGET) helps separate ‘association’ from credible causal inference in observational studies.

www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/cov... We have a similar situation in Australia, with only 53% of people in Residential Aged Care up to date with their booster.

Viral outbreaks are always on the horizon – here are the viruses an infectious disease expert is watching in 2026 theconversation.com/viral-outbre... Good overview. We do now have vaccines against HPAI H5N1, and many countries are stockpiling doses.

Flu alert: Clade K H3N2 driving Australia's record 2025 season. Cases: 457k+ Jan–Nov (vs 200k norm). Extended May–Nov. Elderly ≥65 uptake: 60.5% – need >75% to blunt waves. ​ Clade K drifted but vax ~30–40% VE vs severe. Get boosted. #EpiSky #FluAus

www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...? Uptake now 93% Need 95% for herd immunity.

HPV vaccination rates are down in Queensland. I have explained why in the Courier Mail and in an interview with 7News Sunshine Coast. It is mainly due to parents not signing or returning consent forms. Current system is paper-based and opt-in. Need electronic and opt-out.

A new systematic review of 64 studies (2.4 million people, 20 countries) shows long COVID clusters into distinct symptom patterns. Key clusters: • Fatigue (often with pain, brain fog, breathlessness) • Respiratory • Neurologic • GI • Olfactory/gustatory & cardiopulmonary patterns

👋 I’m Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics & Epidemiology (Adelaide University, ex-WHO). I post daily, evidence-based updates on infectious diseases, outbreaks & vaccine policy – focused on Australia & global health. Follow for concise #EpiSky briefings.

A highly transmissible H3N2 influenza subclade K that contributes to a prolonged 2025 season in Australia is now linked to record outbreaks in the US and UK, overwhelming healthcare systems despite vaccination still reducing severity. Vaccination remains critical.

Measles is back on the radar in Australia: multiple exposure alerts tied to international travel. If you’re unsure about your MMR status (esp. born after 1965), check now—vaccination protects you and stops onward spread.

A Happy New Year to all my followers. My resolution is to be more active on BlueSky in future. Also, now happy to have moved to our new School of Public Health at Adelaide University.

Is there much COVID around? Do I need the new booster shot LP.8.1? theconversation.com/is-there-muc... My new article for The Conversation

More people died from influenza than COVID-19 in August, for the first time since the height of the pandemic, according to the ABS. 265 people died from or with influenza compared with 195 deaths associated with COVID-19.

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/... New research shows seasonal flu vaccines could also offer some protection against H5N1 bird flu. In ferrets (our best model for human flu), vaccinated animals had milder illness and lower virus levels after H5N1 exposure.

Queensland: The measles outbreak tied to overseas travel (particularly from SE Asia) continues. Queensland Health has issued alerts after exposure incidents including at Cairns Hospital maternity ward. Masking is now required in high‑risk hospital wards.

www.medicalrepublic.com.au/nasal-flu-va... This is good news

NSW measles alert 🚨 A case was infectious at Sydney Airport T2 + flights Perth ➝ Sydney ➝ Gold Coast. Check your MMR vaccination & watch for symptoms (fever, cough, rash, red eyes) for up to 3 weeks. Call ahead before visiting a clinic. #PublicHealth #Measles #VaccinesWork

Rollout of #Ebola vaccine has begun in DRC in response to the country’s most recent zairevirus outbreak. It is still thrilling to know a vaccine for this scourge has been licensed and can be rapidly deployed. Vaccines save lives. www.afro.who.int/countries/de...

Moderna say that their new LP.8.1 updated COVID vaccine is being manufactured in their Melbourne plant, and hope to have it available by the end of the year. In the meanwhile, we wait with bated breath while COVID vaccine safety is discussed at the US ACIP meeting next Thursday.

Australia: 2 measles cases in Perth, linked to Bali travel; exposure at Dan Murphy’s + Coles Butler. Global: Ebola outbreak in DRC grows to 68 cases, 16 deaths; dengue & chikungunya surging in Bangladesh. #PublicHealth #Epidemiology #VaccinesWork

jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... Azelastine inhaled antihistamine 0.1% nasal spay available over the counter in Australia has been found in this (small) German RCT to reduce the incidence of COVID in vaccinated people from 6.7% to 2.2% by Day56.

www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09... Measles outbreak declared in Cairns after a case of the virus transmitted locally. There have been four measles cases in FNQ this year, with the first 3 travellers from Bali. Health officials urging people to monitor for symptoms and get vaccinated before travelling.

Australia has approved its first vaccine designed to protect koalas from chlamydia. This single‑dose vaccine, developed by the University of the Sunshine Coast, reduces infection, prevents disease progression, and even reverses symptoms in some cases.

www.health.qld.gov.au/newsroom/doh... Flu is still surging in QLD. The free vaccine ends 30 September. For the elderly, do wear a face mask when out shopping etc. #publichealth #Australia

Australia will soon have its own ‘centre for disease control’. Let’s not repeat the chaos of the US theconversation.com/australia-wi... Good overview article by Allen Cheng about the new Australian CDC

In Australia, COVID, flu & RSV are all trending down from winter peaks; but flu still high for late Aug. WHO has lifted the mpox global emergency—risk lower, not gone. Check measles and dengue status of country before international travel #auspol #publichealth

Epi update: Measles alert Sydney (imported), whooping cough surging (worst since ’91), winter viruses plateauing, RSV programs rolling out. 🌏 Globally: H5N1 in US cat food, cholera deaths rising, measles resurgence Americas. #PublicHealth #Epidemiology

www.health.gov.au/ministers/th... Big milestone - well done Mark Butler

🌍 I’m heading to #IUPESM2025 in Adelaide this month! Over 1,000 global delegates, a future-focused program, and unmissable conversations on medical physics, biomedical engineering & health innovation. 🔗 Join me: wc2025.org/registration 📅 Program: wc2025.org/program @IUPESM2025 #IUPESM2025

The Australian PABC had recommended that two RSV vaccines be funded under the National Immunisation Program - GSK’s Arexvy and Pfizer’s Abrysvo for all patients aged 75 and older, as well as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 60-74.

During a pandemic, CSL Seqerus Australian manufacturing plant needs 1,000,000 fertilised chicken eggs a day.

Just attending the CSL Seqerus symposium on avian influenza. More later.

Long COVID is more than fatigue. Our new study suggests its impact is similar to a stroke or Parkinson’s theconversation.com/long-covid-i... It is a major problem that authorities don't want to talk about

Accelerated vascular ageing after COVID-19 infection: the CARTESIAN study url: academic.oup.com/eurheartj/ar... We know women are at higher risk of Long Covid, and that a covid infection can cause stiffness in the arteries via a build up of plaques. This large study confirms these findings.

Is it too late to get a flu shot? theconversation.com/is-it-too-la... My new article in The Conversation

Vaccines hold tantalizing promise in the fight against dementia theconversation.com/vaccines-hol... Another interesting article in The Conversation.

COVID, the flu and other viral infections can re-awaken dormant breast cancer cells, new study in mice shows theconversation.com/covid-the-fl... Interesting research, especially for cancer survivors