DataBS Conf is TOMORROW!! 10am to about 5pm EDT, a bunch of talks of all the nitty gritty BS that happens behind the scenes while working on data. Tickets are free, sign up and join us!! ti.to/databsconf/d...

Currently attending a conference & our field is quite a bit into fancy modeling, so it’s time to repost this blog post. Don’t try to squeeze your research question into whatever model is fashionable right now; try to build the right model for your research question. www.the100.ci/2024/08/27/l...

Farke not a fan of the PSG kickoff approach. #lufc

Reminder of the second half of Liverpool at home to Wolves in Feb. Insert Guardiola with that Harvey Dent quote here.

If you like football kits and other football wear, head over to @506soccerkits.bsky.social on Instagram (506.soccerkits). They're great people and have a great giveaway going on right now for this repurposed 90s keeper kit hat.

📣 louder for the people in the back Esterling, K., Brady, D. & Schwitzgebel, E. (2025). The necessity of construct and external validity for deductive causal inference. Journal of Causal Inference, 13(1), 20240002. doi.org/10.1515/jci-...

Top stuff once again. Bringing validity to the conversation which is too often overlooked in the football analysis space.

🚀 Curious about Positron, Posit’s new open-source IDE? This session shows RStudio users the basics, what’s new, and how it fits your workflow with @ivelasq3.bsky.social (Posit, PBC) #RStats #DataScience #Positron #rladies Thursday 09 October, 11am CT | 6:00 PM CAT www.meetup.com/rladies-gabo...

Glasner on Premier League adaptation - 19/09/25 #cpfc

If you pronounce Likert correctly (lick-urt) people will often think you don't know what you are talking about because the incorrect pronunciation (lie-kurt) is so common. Are there other good examples of this kind of thing?

Great to see the WSL added to @optaanalyst.optajoe.com, with detailed stats alongside fixture and season level predictions. theanalyst.com/competition/...

Arne Slot 🗣️ 01/04/25

"Whatever exists at all exists in some amount. To know it thoroughly involves knowing its quantity as well as its quality." (Thorndike, 1918)

another day, another harvest

🚨#datavis Job alert 🚨 Fancy working with us in London as a researcher using @observablehq.com Plot for accessible #datavis? To support people with language disability in the use of data visualization for everyday decision making. www.citystgeorges.ac.uk/about/jobs/a...

While re-writing my R tutorials I removed the Bayes material from individual tutorials, rewrote it, and collected it in its own home. Just pushed the resulting tutorial `discovr_bayes` to github, it's a gentle intro to Bayesian estimation using rstanarm. github.com/profandyfiel...

Spielmann, J., Otte, F., Schumacher, T., Mayer, J., & Klatt, S. (2024). 𝐒𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐠𝐨𝐚𝐥𝐤𝐞𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲. 𝐌𝐲𝐭𝐡 𝐨𝐫 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲?. 𝐹𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑝𝑠𝑦𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑦, 15, 1418004. doi.org/10.3389/fpsy...

"To have enough data/information to know if a coach is really good you need to have seen them win with multiple different unique sets of players. You need to basically have seen...hey this guy had success with 1 squad & then a totally different squad 3 yrs later he can maintain success" - Luke Bornn

I am beyond excited to announce that ggplot2 4.0.0 has just landed on CRAN. It's not every day we have a new major #ggplot2 release but it is a fitting 18 year birthday present for the package. Get an overview of the release in this blog post and be on the lookout for more in-depth posts #rstats

Reminder ⤵️

12/09/25 ⚽️🌀

We can use xG to compute post-hoc win-draw-loss probabilities. Our new blogpost shows MCMC's estimates of these probabilities are unstable, computing them exactly is faster than approximating them, and MCMC's runtime strongly depends on its implementation. dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/...

📣 louder for the people in the back Esterling, K., Brady, D. & Schwitzgebel, E. (2025). The necessity of construct and external validity for deductive causal inference. Journal of Causal Inference, 13(1), 20240002. doi.org/10.1515/jci-...

Baptism of fire for Kpakio. Ben Davies showed his permanent class. de Fougerolles almost with a Puskas contender off the woodwork. Maybe he was inspired by his Fulham teammate Harry Wilson's goal of the season v Brentford last season.

Canada 1-0 victory over Wales. #CanMNT #rstats #ggplot

draw the line where they got better players on the pitch instead (Milenkovic, Anderson). Guess is close to 80~📈. Also not lost on me that Ange sacked Cooper before Nuno came in.

related: if you’re a frequentist and you think you’re not bringing your prior knowledge* into your data analysis, you’re either lying to yourself or not doing your job very well * unlike those subjective Bayesians!

Public formation data is often unreliable. For example, Arsenal commonly associated with 433 when the reality is more often than not closer to 4231. A coding vestige of Ødegaard's shirt number? idk. Formation litteracy is underrated. This was Arteta pre-match in Feb. 2025 v Nottingham Forest. 1/2

❗️⤵️ finally

last days of the international break with my thrifted mug

Looking forward to the #MLSA25 workshop next week at @ecmlpkdd.org! We'll have some exciting research on soccer, ultimate frisbee, basketball and table tennis. ⚽🥏🏀🏓 Want a sneak peek? The papers are already available on the workshop website 👇

still doing an impressive job, all things considered

Visualizing relative team strength. This parsimonious approach has important limitations but carries some degree of face validity (imo). Ultimately, players matter the most when it comes to winning football games. Canada beat Romania 3-0 in Bucharest as the underdog. #CanMNT #rstats #ggplot

A shout out for @nrennie.bsky.social fab book on data viz! nrennie.rbind.io/art-of-viz/

The Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference is an annual event dedicated to highlighting the latest sports research from the statistics and data science community. Registration for the 2025 CMSAConference is open. 🔗 www.cmsaconference.com

It was stated that Burnley had a back 4 v Man United but it was closer to a back 3/5. Walker with a nuanced RCB role, Brunn Larsen a pseudo-RWB + Hannibal oscillating from RM/RAM. So imo, Burnley more closely set out with a 3421/541 oop shape, not 4231 as stated by most public data sources. 1/3

What is the operational definition of 'opponents bypassed' from Genius Sports? van Dijk with 103 in the 95th.

"Whatever exists at all exists in some amount. To know it thoroughly involves knowing its quantity as well as its quality." (Thorndike, 1918)

The Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference is an annual event dedicated to highlighting the latest sports research from the statistics and data science community. Registration for the 2025 CMSAConference is open. 🔗 www.cmsaconference.com

International break harvesting

Dr. Ian Graham) 🗣️“...𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐝𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐦 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐝𝐨. So can we measure how many times that through ball goes past me, how many times I let that cross happen, how many times I don’t clear and a shot comes in my area of the pitch?..." 1/2

Mateta getting booked for his celebration and I. Sarr getting booked for 'simulation' because he pulled his hamstring in the same game is very 'game's gone' territory. Sad weekend for the football dinos like me. Pour one out for Josh King's goal of course.

New year, new coefficients simulation! ⚠️This year is the first time I've seen where the Big 4 might actually be challenged, as 🇫🇷 France _could_ overtake 🇩🇪 Germany. Being Top 4 gives you 4 direct UCL spots, which are now at risk for Germany, after some poor seasons in Europe.

checkpoint reached ✔️international break type of cadence for now

Arne Slot on set pieces April 1st 2025 pre match v Everton

🗣️ Slot on opposition tactics [29/08/25 - Sky Sports]

Luke Bornn on manager recruitment ⚽🗣️

REMINDER: The call for proposals for the 2026 American Soccer Insights Summit closes at 11:59 PM CT on September 1st. In partnership with SkillCorner, we are excited to offer women’s soccer tracking data to support the researchers who send us the best proposals. More info: tinyurl.com/34rkpb8f

I'm looking for Junior Data Engineer to join Football Insights team to work directly with me on a very exciting roadmap. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/42...