Day 207 — War day 85. Sunday could change everything. Iran and Pakistan sent a revised offer to the US to terminate the conflict and open the Strait of Hormuz. An MOU is being fine-tuned to end the US-Iran war, Pakistani security official.

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Day 206 — War day 84. Stalemate. First Happy Bitcoin Pizza Day!! 16 years ago today, Laszlo Hanyecz, paid 10,000 $BTC for two pizzas. That $BTC is worth $809,750,000 today. Never sell your conviction for a short term need.

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Day 205 — War day 82 A deal is being drafted right now. The Kobeissi Letter reporting the final terms: immediate ceasefire, freedom of navigation in Hormuz under a "joint monitoring mechanism," sanctions lifted gradually. Pakistan brokering. Announcement expected within hours.

Day 204 — War day 81 Trump postponed a scheduled strike on Iran. Saudi Arabia and Qatar asked him to hold off. He held off. That's not de-escalation. That's a queued strike on a 24-hour delay.

Day 203 — War day 80. Vance summed it up in three lines today. "We've made a lot of progress on Iran." "Option B is restart the military campaign." "That's not what Trump or Iran wants." Both can't be right. But at least they agree on what they don't want.

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Day 202 — War day 79. Ceasefire expires tomorrow. Washington talks described as "productive" by the US side. Iran: "We cannot trust the Americans at all." Both can't be right. Only 4 vessels transited Hormuz today, 4% of normal traffic. Oil is the transmission mechanism.

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Day 201 — War day 78. The clock is ticking. Trump: "For Iran, the clock is ticking. They better get moving fast or there won't be anything left of them." Trump called Netanyahu to discuss Iran.

Day 200 — War day 77. Iran is charging for Hormuz. Tehran announced it will unveil a new "management plan" for the strait. Designated routes. Service fees. Only cooperating vessels allowed through. They are not reopening Hormuz. They are monetizing it.

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Day 199 — War day 76. Hormuz still closed. Ceasefire holding in name. Both sides have fired at each other since it took effect. One ship seized, one vessel attacked. Oil climbed again today. BRENT OIL +2.83%. China called for a "comprehensive and lasting ceasefire." Nobody is listening.

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Day 198 — War day 75. Iran let the ships through. Trump and Xi met. Agreed: Hormuz must stay open. Xi made it official, no military support for Iran. Iran deployed Ghadir-class mini submarines inside the strait.

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Day 197 — War day 74. Iran: "No room for retreat." Trump landed in Beijing. Pushing Xi to pressure Iran into reopening Hormuz and accepting a peace deal. Iran's parliament speaker: military at "highest level of readiness" and ready to "teach a lesson" to any aggressor.

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Day 196 — War day 73. "Finish the job." Trump: "Iran will either do the right thing or we will finish the job." Ceasefire on massive life support. Trump says he's not going to rush anything, but combat is back on the table. Iran can't have a nuclear weapon. That's the red line.

Day 195 — War day 72. Talks on hold. Iran-US negotiations paused until after the Trump-Xi Beijing summit. Trump called Iran's proposal "stupid and unacceptable." Iran says uranium enrichment is non-negotiable. A US nuclear submarine arrived in Gibraltar.

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Day 194 — War day 71. Iran responded. Through Pakistan. But the response isn't what anyone hoped for. Tehran rejected dismantling nuclear facilities. Proposed transferring some uranium to a third country instead. Iran's response focuses on ending the war on all fronts including Lebanon.

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Day 193. War Day 70. Still at the Desk. Seventy days in and the Strait of Hormuz is still not fully open. No ceasefire, no clean exit, no timeline anyone believes. Oil is range-bound in the high $90s and markets have adjusted to the noise. Fear and Greed at 51, neutral.

Day 192 — War day 69 Ceasefire is holding in name only. US forces struck two Iranian oil tankers near Bandar Jask and the Strait of Hormuz on May 7-8. Iran condemned it as a violation of the ceasefire. Sporadic clashes between Iranian forces and US vessels ongoing in the Strait right now.

Day 191 — War day 68 Iran rejected the US Hormuz deal. Called it "unrealistic." Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reversed course, US military base access restored. Project Freedom is back on. Brent punched back above $100. Reuters: suspicious pre-war oil trades totaled at least $7B. Someone knew.

Day 190 — War day 67 Trump paused Project Freedom. Not over. Paused. US forces stop guiding ships through Hormuz while Iran reviews the latest peace proposal. Blockade stays in place. Pakistan brokering. Asked about a timeline today on Fox News, Trump said: "One week." One week.

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Day 189 — War day 66 Ceasefire technically holding. Barely. US sank 6 Iranian boats in Hormuz yesterday. UAE hit by Iranian drones and missiles. US opened a lane through Hormuz, "Project Freedom" is live. Hegseth says ceasefire is "not over." Trump: "I'll let you know if it's breached."

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Day 188 — War day 65 Trump launched "Project Freedom" today. US forces ordered to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded immediately: any entry into Hormuz violates the ceasefire. UAE intercepting Iranian drones and missiles as we speak.

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Day 187 — War day 64 Iran ceasefire update just dropped. Trump on Iran's 14-point proposal: "We considered it. It's not good for us." "It's not acceptable to me. I've studied it, I've studied everything, it's not acceptable." Iran's Foreign Ministry response:

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Day 186 — War day 63. May 9 ceasefire or parade decoration? Ukraine/Russia: Russia struck a civilian bus in Kherson with a drone. Two killed, seven injured. Over the past week: 1,600 attack drones, 1,100 guided bombs, three missiles launched at Ukraine.

Day 185 — War day 62. Two wars. Zero deals. Ukraine/Russia: Russia launched 210 drones overnight. 190 shot down. Ukraine buying 8,000 Octopus interceptor drones to counter Shaheds. May 9 ceasefire still floating. Nothing confirmed.

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Day 184 — War day 61. Two conflicts, zero resolutions. Ukraine/Russia: Putin called Trump. Proposed a Victory Day ceasefire, May 9, for the Moscow parade. Trump separately told reporters he asked Putin for "a little bit of a ceasefire", meaning a longer ceasefire.

Day 183 — War day 60. Trump told Iran to “get smart soon.” Peace talks stalled. The revised Iranian proposal hasn’t arrived. Hegseth defending the war in Congress today. Pentagon disclosed total cost so far: $25 billion. Trump predicted 4-6 weeks. We’re at 60 days.

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Day 182 — Everyone blamed the war for today's drop. It wasn't the war. OpenAI missed its 2025 revenue target for ChatGPT. Failed to reach 1 billion weekly active users. Google Gemini took market share from them at the end of last year. They're struggling with subscription churn.

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Day 181 — War day 58. Tehran submitted a peace proposal. Trump is reviewing it. Hormuz still blocked by both sides. Ceasefire extended but stalled. IDF (Israeli army) struck 20 Hezbollah sites in Lebanon overnight. No deal. No timeline. No urgency.

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Day 180 — War day 57. Talks dead. Blockade holding. Markets uneasy. --- War update. The Witkoff and Kushner trip to Pakistan was cancelled. Trump said the sides can talk by phone.