What a candle...

GFEX Flex | Diving into China's Commodity Futures pineconemacroresearc...

The S&P 500 is up less than 3% priced in EUR Btw - STOXX Europe 600 is up over 32% priced inn USD

Have a great weekend

Every metal is basically curving left on the chart and the 1yr inflation swap is sub 2.2%

Couple interesting news items today

The US is not exactly the only place thinking about LatAm

Our Year in Review at PMR Passport pineconepassport.sub...

Check out Walk in the Pines - our free weekly pineconemacroresearc...

Leaving the Charge Giving up on EVs as They Turn the Corner pineconemacroresearc...

Fun Fact - sometimes technical analysis works

Sometimes easy to forget that the US is only 13% of global imports

Couple Bessent Quotes: “We’ve gone to a highly financialized economy. We’ve stopped making things—especially a lot of things that are relevant for national security.” "38% of Americans don't own stocks, aim to get to zero." Main Street's turn...TO BUY STOCKS?

Not looking like a very passive equity stake here...

Microsoft Edge is a pretty talented stalker

Elbow's Up At Least for Canadian Asset Prices pineconepassport.sub...

Trade Balance Burden Smaller Trade Deficit a Threat to US Asset Prices? pineconemacroresearc...

I like silver - I even wrote about a squeeze just like this 18 months ago BUT - the monthly RSI for silver futures is above 85 now. This happened 2 other times since 1980 and both resulted in a drawdown of over 70% from the peak. Caution warranted...

The Fed started rate cuts 15 months ago - after 7 rate cuts in that span - the 10yr yield is... 50bps higher than when we began

Clearly China DOES innovate

For the folks in the back...WE NEED EVERY ELECTRON

Nobody at the Fed has growth under 2% or inflation above 2.8% in 2026. So if you think we have stagflation in 2026 - literally nobody at the Fed agrees...

Nobody at the Fed has 2026 growth below 2%

Wat?

Good read with some great visuals ig.ft.com/ai-power/

Commodities Ripping While Inflation Expectations Drop? pineconemacroresearc...

Race *from* the bottom amirite

Some relative strength that may surprise you... pineconepassport.sub...

Almost like nuclear is useful or something

Seems clear to me that these folks will not stop until we hit the $40s...

Flat-rolled aluminum products are no longer just another industrial material — they’ve become part of the machinery that keeps modern life running. They are everywhere: in electric cars, in the hardware behind renewable-energy systems, packaging, etc.

Good read www.theideasletter.o...

Evergreen

Sweet we got another 40% of GDP investment from another country - really racking these up

Missed this Economist piece from April but it nails my applied AI point www.economist.com/bu...

Great piece from Alexander Stubb (President of Finland) "The forces that were supposed to bring the world tegether - trade, energy, technology, and information - are now pulling it apart."

Between this, SCOTUS pending, and those huge rebate checks in Q1 (those aint free)- why are we assuming the deficit is all good now?

Plenty of reason to be concerned about the labor market still - but there are some signs that the worst may be over for now. Switcher wages picking up on stayers aggressively of late.

This captures applied innovation versus technonihiltopianism well: - "Sam Altman wants artificial intelligence to cure cancer. Elon Musk says AI robots will eliminate poverty." - China is focused on something more prosaic: making better washing machines. www.wsj.com/tech/ai/...

www.reuters.com/mark...

www.nytimes.com/2025...

Why I am even more bullish aluminum than I was a couple of months ago... open.substack.com/pu...

China is close to overtaking the US in total expenditure on R&D, with China spending $781bn & the US $823bn in 2023, according to the OECD. It is a stark change from 2007 when China’s R&D spending of $136bn was less than 1/3 of the $462bn spent by the US. https://t.ly/fR7rA

Will stablecoins help the US fund a small slice of the deficit and help even further dollarize some places - sure But they will also defang sanctions/restrictions/money laundering controls etc. via SCMP

Daily reminder that China dominates the Electric Stack

The West is getting creamed on the Electric Stack and the bounty it will create in the future - not just today - but looking forward