A combo of stats I like to look at to see who I think translates to MLB, K% > 30%, BAA < .200, HR/9 <.56 (I adjust up and down depending on HR environment for that year). Two Giants prospects qualify out of six total across affiliated baseball (min: 40 IP), Joe Whitman and Luis De La Torre.

Marginal plays thread (in my opinion): Justin Lawrence was just moved for cash. Career FIP vs RHH under 3.50. SF has no reliable high-leverage RHH options beyond Winn/Miller, forcing Winn in the 8th for Suzuki/Hoerner. Lawrence fit there and could’ve saved Winn for the 9th instead of needing 5 outs.

Giants team wRC+ is up to 11th as of this inning. They could jump as high as 4th with a good week.

Very good listen. VAA and VAA AA are underutilized, especially for evaluating 4S and sinkers.

As usual FanGraphs takes their own approach. Some of this is bizarre (not sure what Tidwell has shown to be a 45, Cohen outside top 20), but interesting read.

The Minasian KNBR hit is filled with examples of the below. He says the lineup creation process is a collaborative effort with Vitello and FO, but ultimately Vitello’s call. The raw statement might be truthful, but is it good faith? Is a rookie manager going to ignore the suggestions of the FO?

Minasian on KNBR said his comment to Bowden about Vitello setting the lineup was in response to a report that said the FO sends the lineup out a week in advance. What report was that??

This smells like a bloop and a blast event is incoming. My new predictive model is what is the most demoralizing that can happen in any particular game

To add on (1), there’s both a value aspect and an optics aspect. The Boston FO under Breslow clearly does not care much about optics, but ownership likely does. So while the FO may have been willing to dump Devers for nothing, ownership would understandably be hesitant to stomach that publicly.

The signs of an impending disaster were there from the start.

1. Would the Giants have had to kick in Tibbs and Harrison if they didn’t dump Hicks? I’m guessing no, so, put this on “payroll responsibility” 2. How will this FO retrospectively evaluate why their pitching dev missed on this? Did their rehab team sketch out this physical bounce back?

I’ve a month’s worth of There R Giants to catch up on, but this doesn’t surprise me. Cohen is a full grade better athlete and has a more projectible hit tool (Kilen’s best tool imo).

Giants are in their “It’s a great time out” era. To endure it, you must abandon desire, dissolve the self, and accept that games are merely illusions passing through consciousness.

I probably missed something, what happened to Koss? What does Kennedy do that Koss can’t?

Per my player value model, Devers is the second worst deal in baseball behind Machado, though Trout is close. Assuming competency on my part, I would guess full freight Devers cannot be moved right now. Chapman’s not that bad.

Good timing. I watched about 75 pitches Wilkinson has thrown this year, over three starts. Not a big believer in his chance to start. Too many meatballs that will be slugged in AAA. Middle relief profile for me.

DSL is underway. Giants have Orange and Black squads. Not a thrilling group with Hernandez in ACL, his bonus eating up pool, but Opening Day top-4 lineup spots can hint at org evals. CF Jose Valdez (17.2Y) jumps out from that. Black’s top 4 has two 22-year-olds and a 23-year-old. Not great.

De La Torre, who’s my top ranked arm in the system, has been off to an uneven start, control wise. 31 BB in 38 IP is rough. But lots of good stuff elsewhere. Continues to be very hard to hit, 45 K, and a ton of pop ups (which are essentially SO).

Lee needs to lock in defensively and just try on the bases, no reason he can’t be a 3 win player in RF.

Giants are 14th in baseball in wRC+ after today’s game. On track to hit preseason projections of being in the 10-15 range.

Bader has avg ~400 PA/yr since 2021. At 32, maybe expect 350 in 2026. Giants CFs had 680 PA last year, leaving ~330 PA, ~80 vs LHP (1.3% of all PA). They entered ST with Oliva, Matos, Fitz, Gilbert for that slice. Now it’s Gilbert, Cox, Lee. Getting pretty much nothing. That’s where the margins are.

This is the Wade Meckler move, which was one of the dumber things the prior FO did.

Mahle has looked better than Houser, even this month. It’s not that close for me. But Mahle getting phantom IL’d suggests the Giants FO sees it differently. When my read is this far off from theirs, it makes me want to stop evaluating and just say: they’re pros, I’m on the couch. Shut up and watch.

Giants don’t have a ton of elite options, but not sure how they determined Kilian was the guy over Winn/Miller. Not saying they have been much better (Winn got hit today too), but there has been a clear tier gap in how they’ve looked.

This season has been unbelievably cursed. I can’t believe the shit that keeps happening day in and day out.

Eldridge has 25 K%, 14 BB% through 57 PA. Been protected against LHP, but hasn’t exactly been overwhelmed so far.

I thought it was a bit odd that Wotus had a dugout role with the Giants (at home), while also on TV. And came into that role with the season underway at the end of March. Couldn’t have been prepping for this outcome from back then, right?

You could say that, but there are a few hundred people at the highest level making $250K-5M/yr (not PPP adjusted). I expect a great deal of professional maturity in a sport when pay is that high. He might truly just be one of those one in a billion type people. Like Ohtani.

I sure hope the Giants are thinking and operating along these lines… www.nytimes.com/athletic/731...

I’m surprised this story hasn’t broken through more in the sports world. The best cricket player in the world might be a chunky 15 year old. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a better set of hands, baseball or otherwise. www.economist.com/culture/2026...

Vitello indicates that he didn’t have much interaction with Borg before the spring started. To me that means his elevation to the staff and role as third base coach was driven by FO. I’ve heard differently, that it was Vitello who pushed for Borg, not FO. Guess not. omny.fm/shows/the-ex...

I see there being three phylums they could look at: 1. Experienced, old-school, history of success: Mike Rizzo, Dayton Moore 2. Player/scouting/dev, “balanced”: Amiel Sawdaye, Preston Mattingly, Carter Hawkins 3. Process/model oriented: Mike Chernoff, James Click, Derek Falvey, Ani Kilambi

Probably too early to get too deep into this, but if Posey is no longer POBO, he should probably step down from the executive committee too. It will already be hard enough to attract a top-tier candidate. Having the person who just held the job looking over their shoulder won’t help.

Time to fill in triples alley haha. Devers and Eldridge going to lose a dozen HR every year over there.

Ranked Simon at 29 despite 38 BB in 27.2 IP in 2025. Interesting mix of traits, would’ve have had him higher if I felt he was a bit better athlete.

Here’s a way out on the limb prediction based on PA quality I’ve seen this season: Patrick Bailey finishes the season with a higher wRC+ than Susac. Assuming Susac gets near starter playing time the rest of the way.

CHW SP LHP Bryan Hudson has career reverse splits (109 IP), so it’s not automatic to go RHH, but Gilbert is 2-for-38 vs LHP. Bericoto has reverse splits, but I would take my chances with him dtill. Rodriguez stretched in Oracle RF. No decent RHH platoon COF option. Great roster construction!

In classic Giants fashion, even their boons turn into curses. Getting the 4th pick in the draft locks them out of the top spots this year, when, at least for now, it looks like they’re in contention for spot 1 or 2. 15th pick in 2026 and 1 in 2027 is better than 4th in 2026 and 10th in 2027.

Giants plucked Torres out of MIL system in 2019 in the MiLB Rule 5 draft. Then after Covid, despite never having played above rookie ball, he was assigned to AA. Ended up doing ok playing everywhere including C. Out of affiliated ball in 2022-23. Now a major leaguer. Pretty cool.

Home in the bay visiting my parents, who have cut their cable subscription recently. “What’s the point of paying hundreds of dollars each month to get mad at the Giants?” My father has probably averaged 80 games a season since he immigrated here. In other news, can’t watch, what’s up with the HBP.

Video of Valle (from late 2025):

One of the few Evans era players left in the org. Ramos, Winn, Walker, Juan Sanchez are the other ones off the top of my head.

Bericoto has reverse splits in 2025–26, so swap for Brennan. 110 wRC+ in 186 PA. I usually knock ~30 off AAA wRC+ for a quick MLB estimate. Add platoon context and you’re probably looking at an 85–90 wRC+ vs LHP with worse defense (?) than Brennan. What’s the point? www.reddit.com/r/SFGiants/c...

If McDonald stays in the rotation when Webb is back and the Giants have to make a decision between Mahle and Houser. It’ll be interesting who they pick to move to bullpen. For me, it’s a pretty easy call based on what I’ve seen. Houser to bullpen. Not considering contract status, just winning now.

Giants have an epidemic of ill fitting helmets. Up and down the org, helmets fly off at the slightest athletic movement.

Mostly what I expected. Posey got a bit testy with the questions around Eldridge and the bullpen. omny.fm/shows/the-ex...

Posey will be on KNBR at 7:30 am today. Not expecting anything interesting, but higher chance than usual.

Plenty covered correctly about last night, two other things: 1. Marte hitting a breaking ball out of the zone wasn’t unfathomable. Power hitters punish breakers with unremarkable traits, from their strong side in high leverage. 2. He took Miller 411 ft the prior AB. Did that not register?

I feel fairly confident in saying that Vitello is not setting the lineup. From what I know Posey’s FO was dictating the lineup for Melvin last season, can’t imagine they stopped for a rookie manager. I doubt there is a single manager out there with near or complete autonomy to set lineups.

Starting Schmitt in LF with a flyball pitcher on the mound yesterday, true OF today with a groundball pitcher. Ok. I hope they believe Brennan has the better suited swing vs Nelson than Eldridge, because this is hard to follow.