My 2026 Giants Top 80 prospects list is up, notes here: giantsprospects.substack.com/p/2026-top-8...

Well, cross 14 off this list.

Chapman behind Arraez against a LHP gets you what?

Top 80 locked in! Now to see how many quick notes I can write up before the end of the day. Took some swings, so won’t look exactly like major publications, but that’s where it’s fun. Go big or go home.

What’s going on here

Eugene’s roster is out: Gavin Kilen, Trevor Cohen, Dakota Jordan, Luis De La Torre, and Carlos Gutierrez are on it.

SD has missed a lot of hangers already. Machado earlier in the inning, Bogaerts to end it.

That Machado overturned strike is why I don’t buy that ABS effect in Bailey’s value will be negligible. That “strike” was very valuable as it was quite out of the zone, so increased framing value. Is Bailey getting (and overturning) missed strikes at a similar rate? I doubt it as he is a good framer

Matos’ minus athleticism was an anchor from the start. It’s why he signed for just 725K despite obvious ability. As he filled out, he lost the burst needed to be an avg CF, and his instincts (prep?) didn’t help. Still, there’s a player here if someone can get his buy-in at the plate and on the field

Eldridge in opening series vs El Paso (SD): 15 PA, 4 BB, 1 IBB, 1 HBP. If I was an NL West team with an affiliate seeing Eldridge, I would not pitch to him. Him seeing pitches and developing accomplishes the Giants’ goals. Walking him is a hindrance. Devious way to undercut a rival at little cost.

Bednar starts the season the dev list.

Will @fangraphs.com ever add minor league splits?

Working on top 80 Giants prospects list. Hope to make a lot of progress today and have it ready before the full minor league season kicks off. Trevor Cohen is going to be very high. Love the swing. Dunno if he can keep adding strength, whether CF is realistic, but love the bat path + how he moves.

Lineup already paying off…

Currently working on a matchup calculator that looks at how a lineup is projected to perform against a certain pitcher by looking at how they've performed against similar pitchers in the past. Ramos doesn't look great against Fried but he's still better than most of the others in the lineup.

I promise to limit commentary around lineup order because it’s overdone and in the end, not all that important. That said, why is Ramos hitting sixth vs. LHP? Career vs. LHP: 134 wRC+. Arraez is 90, Lee 71, Adames 91. Even in down last year, Ramos was at 107 wRC+. Lee over Ramos is truly bizarre.

I think a fair counter argument is they could have tried to land them, but it’s probably pretty clear that Eldridge will be prioritized when he is ready, so this group could’ve preferred clearer paths to a consistent role.

Rule 5 picks, RHP Spencer Miles (TOR) and RHP Ryan Watson (BOS) have both made their respective opening day rosters. Miles being taken and now making the roster is not surprising. I’m sure there’s a bit of heartburn in the FO over him. We’ll see if he sticks. open.substack.com/pub/giantspr...

FO says Eldridge’s dev goals are best met in AAA. Ok. Tradeoff is Encarnacion/Schmitt who project well below avg for DH. 1. Offseason: No everyday/LH platoon DH NRI brought in 2. Current: FO believes Enc/Schmitt vs RHP (+Oliva “value”) beats Brennan/McCray (+Ramos at DH defense gain). Don’t buy it

Season predictions: Record: 79-83 (floor: 74 wins, ceiling 84) Hitting WAR: Chapman (team wRC+: 11, OAA: 19) Pitching WAR: Webb (SP ERA-: 20, RP: 26) 1. Lower than projections on wins due to complete lack of SP depth and pitiful RP talent. The latter leading to upside down record in one-run games

Lee’s helmet rattling on his head with every max swing is probably counterproductive while going through the mental cues of a swing.

I do think Matos is an interesting choice at DH vs someone really good like Max Fried. He feels like someone who would have a narrower band of outcomes vs stuff quality than most, giving him a chance to out punch his ability against outlier stuff than say a more “normal”, decent (and better) hitter.

5 RHH bats on the bench. That’s actually hilarious, but I imagine a move or two will be coming.

Bivens, McDonald, and Seymour optioned to Sacramento.

Santana started pitching less than a year ago, after being unable to sign as a speedy SS. FB 89-90.

Video of Padron (Oct 2025):

Giants are taking a similar approach with the bullpen www.reddit.com/r/SFGiants/c...

Heard something interesting from an industry source, Boston’s FO wanted to move Devers before 2025, but ownership feared fan reaction. Pure speculation from here, but the way the relationship was handled after that looked designed to inflame things: public friction, negative leaks, building backlash

This is what I covered in the article below. Giants’ focus in player development has shifted from what other top teams are focused on. We’ll see how this goes nypost.com/2026/03/22/s...

Wait the Giants signed someone to the major league roster after he spent no time with the team during spring training? I thought that was bad for team morale or whatever? (See commentary around Matt Beaty)

Kilen is a lot smaller than I thought. Pretty skinny dude. Strong hands, but his lack of power projection makes sense based on current physicality

Trevor McDonald’s fastball not looking very good today. Everyone has been on it. Rough outing.

Seeing pre-pitch jump readiness from Heliot Ramos (like Drew Gilbert). Not seeing it from Matos in CF and Lee in RF.

Rough sun, but here!

I don’t think this makes much sense, but ok. The infatuation with Encarnacion is based on what? 28 years old, 82 wRC+ as a Giant, .283 OBP this spring, all projection systems have him below average (some well below) for a DH. He flashed some defensive ability in 2025, but that won’t matter at DH.

I thought this was really interesting and it aligns with how I've been feeling about the team lately

Wrote a few reflections on the state of the Giants over the last 18 months: giantsprospects.substack.com/p/winter-tho...

Update: Josuar Gonzalez has now been removed from the Giants' Spring Breakout roster.

If anybody has Giants minor league schedule for Fri/Sat, that would be great to see. Our hotel is only 10 mins from Papago, maybe I can sneak in an hour at the complex.

I’ll be at Giants spring training on Friday and Saturday. Section 130 on Fri, 305 on Sat. Not exactly the best seats haha. I’m praying that the Sat game moves to the evening, for the sake of my kids. If you’re going to be at these games, stop by and say hello!

For the next WBC, Josuar Gonzalez will be in the spot Perdomo was in tonight, and he’ll come through.

Seymour’s cutter looked pretty good.

That’s what a major league swing looks like

This is good. Talk of camp, Victor Bericoto is 3-13, 5 TB vs. regulars+ 40-man. 9-15, 15 TB, vs NRI/MiLB. Paints a slightly different contextual picture.

Giants only show up once in this brief survey of folks in the industry. Not ideal, but with the new group, maybe they’ll look better next year. lancebroz.substack.com/p/2026-mlb-p...

Being an enforcer for Manfred might have helped get DeRosa the Team USA job.

A Giants stuff based approach to the bullpen would be (holding McDonald as SP): Walker Winn Santos Miller Killian Birdsong Tidwell Whisenhunt Who I think they’ll go with: Walker Winn Santos Miller Gage/Luchessi Butto Bivens Brubaker

24 IP, 28 SO. Not very impressive from Flora. Has pitched against Southern Miss., Portland, Utah, LBSU. Not exactly elite teams.

MLBTR projected Lucchesi at 2M before he was non-tendered.

No TV for that game 😒