I study CCP estimation with a latent state measured by noisy proxies. Proxies help identify flexible latent-state dynamics. I apply the estimator to a dynamic model of labor supply and mental health. @YujungHwang3 buff.ly/M68sncg

Quantitative Economics Volume 17, Issue 1 (January 2026) is now online www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

With quasilinear utility, satisficing (imperfect optimization) looks less severe after aggregation: individual errors can cancel out. @JRehbeck buff.ly/kB2E1zU

Using micro data from 120,000 shale wells, this paper finds strong short-run price responsiveness of U.S. oil supply. Producers are forward-looking and respond to price signals by timing completion and refracturing decisions. @hcbjornland @tsgundersen buff.ly/0wB3xhi

Parents’ traits can bias reports of children’s non-cognitive skills. Using parent and teacher measures of child skills in a dynamic model, we show that this bias tends to mask maternal influence and can distort evaluations of childhood interventions. buff.ly/H8Oi42O

We show how to solve dynamic programming problems on a quantum annealer. Our new algorithms recover value and policy functions, avoid scaling bottlenecks, and already run on current hardware. We even solve the real business cycle model on a quantum chip. buff.ly/xRWTYlE

Our talent-to-task model shows how tech + capital concentrate in complex tasks, driving wage & job polarization. Optimal policy: compress labor taxes, tax high-complexity sectors, subsidize low ones, and add a Pigouvian spillover term. buff.ly/cP3YgLN

How much can a principal gain when the agent learns instead of best-responding? No-swap-regret learning gives outcomes close to classic principal–agent models, including Stackelberg games, contract design, and Bayesian persuasion. @tao_lin_cs @YilingChenC buff.ly/hQKbvmj

Disruptive peers impact their closest social circle's learning. We study peer effects using network data to show how disruptive students affect their classmates’ outcomes. Crucial insights for education policy! buff.ly/dQ5r0gG

Quantitative Economics Volume 16, Issue 4 (November 2025) is now online www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

We build a world economy HANK model for the Euro Area, Core & Periphery. Fiscal consolidation under current EA rules is costly, but aligning debt targets with historical values greatly reduces welfare losses. @xiaoshan__chen @lazarakis_s @p_varthalitis buff.ly/eZXPt91

How do durables affect consumption smoothing? Asymmetric information lowers their value as a smoothing tool. We measure lemons penalty for cars using Danish data and show income shocks sustain used car market @richardblundell.bsky.social @ran-gu.bsky.social buff.ly/3j30eyQ

Using a nonlinear Proxy-SVAR, we find that oil supply cuts have large real effects but small on prices and oil supply increases have small real effects but large on prices. We rationalize this asymmetry through the behavior of uncertainty. buff.ly/pcaDo6G

China’s 2014–16 LTV relaxation spurred mortgages and home prices. Loan-level evidence + a quantitative model uncover a new housing investment channel: capital gains fueled upsizing while crowding out consumption. buff.ly/TJ7j8yQ

We develop an empirical minimax-regret policy learning algorithm which can assign never-before-observed treatment values to a population, by combining data on a subset of possible treatment values with shape restrictions on treatment response. buff.ly/S0hflec

The homogeneity assumption in dynamic discrete games allows pooling data across markets and time. This paper proposes an approximate randomization test for this assumption via MCMC, with an application to the U.S. cement industry. buff.ly/avaeEOS

Higher property taxes raise long-run welfare. By shifting capital from housing to businesses they lower house prices and interest rates and boost wages, thereby improving life-cycle consumption smoothing. However, current homeowners lose from such a reform.https://buff.ly/Py8ec3Q

The Executive Committee of the Econometric Society has approved an increase in the publication fees for papers in its two Open Access journals, Quantitative Economics and Theoretical Economics. Read more www.econometricsociety.org/society/news...

We develop a stochastic macro-climate model to analyze the influence of climate change on asset returns. Quasi-analytical formulas allow to price various types of long-dated assets, including fixed-income products, derivatives, and equities. buff.ly/bQ2SxBv

"Many random coefficient choice models are nonparametrically identified, using exclusion restrictions. Logit shocks are not needed." @JRehbeck buff.ly/jkCr0xS

Why do crises leave lasting scars on markets? A model of Bayesian learning about rare disasters shows that beliefs adjust slowly: risk premia spike, asset values fall, volatility persists, and returns skew negative—even after the shock itself fades buff.ly/pWQVBOX

We challenge standard predictive algorithm evaluation, proposing Comprehensive OOS Evaluation via Statistical Decision Theory. Achieving this requires ML researchers to collaborate with econometricians and statisticians to tackle SDT's computational hurdles buff.ly/2xDJTkl

Quantitative Economics Volume 16, Issue 3 (July 2025) is now online www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

We propose a test for mean stationarity in latent volatility curves using high-frequency data. Applied to S&P 500 futures, results show strong evidence of nonstationary volatility—key for real-time risk, jump detection & market activity metrics. buff.ly/MFtu4Ou

We are excited to announce the following new AEs joined the board on July 1st: Esteban M. Aucejo (ASU), Job Boerma (University of Wisconsin-Madison), Liangjun Su (Tsinghua University) & Chamna Yoon (Seoul National University). We look forward to benefiting from their expertise.

We are thrilled to have Anna Mikusheva (MIT) and Fabrizio Perri (Federal Reserve Bank of Minnesota) join the editorial board as Co-editors starting July 1st, 2025. While their focus will be respectively on econometrics and on macroeconomics, they will be handling papers in a wide range of topics.

On June 30, 2025 Garance Genicot and Morten Ravn stepped down as Co-editors of Quantitative Economics. We are very grateful to them for their contributions; the journal has greatly benefited from their insight and energy.

We are thrilled to have Bernard Salanié (Columbia University) take over as Editor starting July 1st, 2025. He will be handling papers in a wide range of topics, from applied theory to econometrics.

On June 30, 2025 Stéphane Bonhomme stepped down as Editor of Quantitative Economics. Stéphane did a fantastic job as an editor; the editorial board and the Econometric Society leadership express their warmest thanks to him.

We develop a framework to study segregation dynamics that brings Schelling's key insights to models of residential choice. We also introduce novel IVs to identify causal effects of neighborhood demographics that can be easily constructed with panel data. buff.ly/YOfZkAP

Quantitative Economics Volume 16, Issue 2 (May 2025) is now online www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

We propose methods to estimate optimal dynamic treatment rules under policy constraints. We clarify the trade-off between backward induction and simultaneous optimization. The methods achieve optimal regret rate and accommodate intertemporal constraints. buff.ly/A32TTrk

This paper develops moment conditions for dynamic ordered logit models with fixed effects, allowing consistent GMM estimation in short panels without assumptions on unobserved heterogeneity. @bohonore.bsky.social @weidnerecon.bsky.social buff.ly/WSsNScT

The 2025 Best Paper Prize has been awarded to Amit Gandhi, Zhentong Lu, and Xiaoxia Shi for their paper “Estimating Demand for Differentiated Products with Zeroes in Market Share Data” www.econometricsociety.org/prizes/qe-te... Congratulations to the authors!

We show weak exogeneity can bias OLS in time series with many controls, making it inconsistent. Bias grows with regressors and autocorrelation. We propose a correction method, yielding a consistent, asymptotically Gaussian estimator. buff.ly/7xiKQ1d

We assess the cost-effectiveness of genotype-based smoking cessation. A lifecycle model shows it outperforms standard policies, generating $29–$40 per dollar spent—16–22% more than non-personalized approaches for smokers treated at 37 or 52. buff.ly/rRzOPt0

We assess heterogeneity in workers’ expected earnings growth rates (HIP) via an adapted measure of the variance of persistent earnings shocks. While results are mixed, those supporting HIP are fragile and small in comparison to estimated earnings risk. buff.ly/fYuIIOn

Using a life-cycle model, we examine the contributions of taxes and transfer programs to mitigating lifetime income inequalities. Linking annual taxes to prior employment could strengthen insurance effects, with tradeoffs in employment and overall welfare. buff.ly/mMR9hdE

We model interest rates as censored observations of a latent shadow rate in VARs, estimated via efficient Bayesian methods. Our shadow-rate VARs yield superior interest rate forecasts and competitive macroeconomic forecasts. buff.ly/bJ9Dyqt

A market so nifty where matchings do grow, stability wins — 88% so! Subjects play smart, strategies unfold, & median matchings overwhelmingly take hold. Echenique, @ARobinsonCortes & @lyariv.com show us this trick: stability reigns when the players are slick! buff.ly/4gGol8y

High-frequency time series can lead to spurious regressions & inflated Wald stats when sampling interval → 0. But there's hope! Robust Wald test with appropriate long-run variance estimates prevents false positives, validated w/interest rate data https://buff.ly/40QJBT7

New research: AR(1) models w/ time-varying parameters enable smooth transitions between stationary & nonstationary periods. Local least squares regression provides robust estimation & proper confidence intervals across both cases. https://buff.ly/4hU2V8N

When the central bank lowers the policy rate, not only mortgage choices but also housing choices amplify the aggregate demand response. Using a quantitative model, I find that updated housing choices contribute to 10 % of the increase in aggregate spending https://buff.ly/4hoNHsy

We develop an indirect inference approach to test the speculative storage model, integrating supply response and several structural shocks. Using grain market data, our results highlight storage's role in price dynamics and resolve key empirical puzzles. https://buff.ly/4g5GQ5Y

Quantitative Economics Volume 16, Issue 1 (January 2025) is now online www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

Over five decades in China, demographics had limited impact on savings but drove per capita output growth. Industrial policies boosted both, with endogenous human capital emerging as a key driver of output growth. @fang-yang-econ.bsky.social https://buff.ly/4fZm1ZD

We propose real-time detectors, designed as stopping rules, to provide rapid alerts when local no-arbitrage violations occur in asset prices. An application demonstrates that these detectors can promptly identify short-lived episodes of market disruption. https://buff.ly/4jbzReo

A new model of cycles & crises in emerging markets—featuring interest shocks, stochastic volatility, & borrowing constraints—finds interest rate shocks play a smaller role than previously thought. Explore findings: https://buff.ly/429jLf4

Please mark down our session if you are attending the upcoming ASSA meeting! Computational Methods for Challenging Macroeconomic Models, Friday, Jan. 3, 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM (PST) www.aeaweb.org/conference/2...

The mismatch problem: 34% of workers with college are underemployed, 11% of workers without college are overemployed. We quantify the economic costs of this mess, and how it affects the college premium debate. #economics #labor #mismatch @pedromaiagomes.bsky.social https://buff.ly/4gwhKOw