We just got a rate cut, but what's next? Depends on who you ask.

US housing starts took a steep dive last month, down 8.5% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.307 million.

Building permits in the US dropped by 3.7% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.312 million last month, the lowest level seen since May 2020.

With a score of 66 out of 100, Switzerland topped the list of the most innovative countries in 2025. Notably, China made the list, ranking No. 10 globally.

Mortgage applications jumped 29.7% from the previous week in the period ending September 12, the most aggressive increase since January, and the second-highest since interest rates crashed in March 2020, according to Trading Economics.

TikTok is set to remain operational in the US. Not sure this is the win it's been made out to be. RIP youth attention spans.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) remained at 32 this month, the same as in August and June, and matching the lowest level seen since December 2022.

US manufacturing output rose 0.2% last month, ahead of forecasts predicting a 0.2% decline.

US capacity utilization was unchanged last month, remaining at 77.4%. Presently, the overall rate sits 2.2 percentage points lower than its long-term average.

Americans' inflation expectations for one year from now climbed for the second month, moving up to 3.2% in August. Reminder: the Fed's target inflation rate is 2%.

US industrial production rose 0.1% in August, ahead of forecasts of a 0.1% drop, and following the 0.4% decline registered in July.

The price of goods imported by the US rose 0.3% month-over-month in August, following the 0.2% rise recorded in July, and above expectations that predicted a 0.1% drop.

Retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month in August, the same as in July, and higher than forecasts of a 0.2% gain.

In January, the three-month moving average of job additions was 232,000. In August, it was just 29,000.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped by 9 bps from the week prior to 6.26% as of September 18. This marks the fourth straight week of easing mortgage rates, now at their lowest level since early October.

European travel bookings to the US are significantly down this fall. For example, summer bookings for the fall season are down over 12.5% from Germany, according to aviation analytics company Cirium.

US holiday shopping is expected to grow this year, albeit at a slower rate... The Mastercard Economics Institute report expects retail sales to increase 3.6% between November 1 and December 24 this year, compared to a 4.1% growth in the same period last year.

Should The Fed Cut Rates? The Truth Behind Sticky Inflation Read here: leadlagreport.substack.com/p/should-the...

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for the US landed at -0.12 in August, the highest level in five months, and an increase from the downwardly revised -0.28 recorded in July.

The Global Innovation Index by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) shows that the innovation gap between China and the US continues to narrow. In 2015, the gap was 12.6 points. Now, it's just 5.1.

Home health and personal care aides are expected to see a surge in employment over the coming decade, with 740K positions forecast to be added by 2034.

Go big or go home... NVIDIA announced it will invest a whopping $100 billion in OpenAI to help it build and deploy at least 10 gigawatts of AI datacenters with NVIDIA systems.

Rate Cuts & Market Highs: Is a Rotation Coming? Read here: leadlagreport.substack.com/p/rate-cuts-...

New single-family home sales in the US surged by over 20% between July and August to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 800K units. August marks the highest level of new home sales since January 2022.

German business sentiment experienced its sharpest monthly drop in over a year, with the Ifo Business Climate Index falling 1.2 points to 87.7 in September. September marks the lowest business sentiment reading since May in Europe's largest economy.

Despite headwinds from tariffs, the OECD forecasts that strong domestic demand and supportive monetary policies will help India's economy grow 6.7% this year, up 0.4 percentage points from its June prediction.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the US fell to 6.34% in the week ending September 19, the lowest since September 2024.

Mortgage application volume rose 0.6% from the previous week in the period ending September 19, adding to the 30% surge recorded during the preceding period, which was the second-highest weekly reading since March 2020, according to Trading Economics.

At a recent talk at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon in Warwick, Rhode Island, Powell reiterated that the Fed faces challenges in achieving both of its objectives: to keep inflation under control while promoting healthy labor markets.

The headline S&P Global US PMI Composite Output Index dropped from 54.6 in August to 53.6 in September. Nevertheless, the still-elevated PMI reading indicates that the third quarter as a whole has experienced the strongest average monthly growth since Q4 last year.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has pledged to use a 91-year-old U.S. crisis fund to help Argentina stabilize its shaky currency. As of July 31, the Exchange Stabilization Fund had total assets of $219.5 billion, of which $173.7 billion were in readily available and liquid assets.

Job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas forecasts that seasonal hiring in the retail industry will slip to its lowest level since 2009. Challenger projects retailers will add fewer than 500K positions in the final 3 months of the year, representing the smallest seasonal gain in 16 years.

Newest member of the Federal Reserve Board, Governor Stephen Miran, believes rates should be lower... much lower. Playing with fire?

Since April 2024, the US economy has lost 1.2 million jobs, and excluding the pandemic, hiring has slowed to its lowest pace in 10 years.

The so-called 'quits rate', a once key indicator of worker confidence, currently sits around 2%, a level not regularly seen since early 2016.

Worker disengagement costs a typical 1,000-person company roughly $5 million in lost productivity each year, according to a study published in February in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine.

From 2024 to 2025, the percentage of Americans living paycheck to paycheck increased four percentage points to 67%.

US building permits dropped by 2.3% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.330 million in August, revised up from an initial estimate of 1.312 million. Despite the upward revision, August remains the lowest level of building permits in over five years.

The greenback is sitting around a three-week high following Powell's remarks on the dual risks of both higher inflation and cooling employment. The question now: Will the Fed cut again in October or not?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claims that “Many of the exporters are eating the tariffs in terms of they’re lowering prices by as much or more than the tariffs.” However, US import prices over the past year are flat, not down, according to Laura Curtis, writing in Bloomberg.

Core PCE inflation (which excludes food and energy) is forecast to be 2.9% in August, but what about the main categories that make up the metric? How much have they contributed to the overall inflation rate?

Compared to just five years ago, US consumers are now paying nearly 25% more for groceries. Honestly, it feels like even more than that.

While Eurozone business activity grew at its fastest pace in 16 months in September, it remains at modest levels. The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index moved up to 51.2 in September from 51.0 in August, the ninth consecutive month in growth territory, albeit barely.

Maintaining Inflation Hedges Read here: leadlagreport.substack.com/p/maintainin...

A Jarring Reality Check Read here: leadlagreport.substack.com/p/a-jarring-...

The Risks Of Pursuing High Yields In Ultra-Sensitive Sectors Read here: leadlagreport.substack.com/p/the-risks-...

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US fell to 55.4 this month, down from 58.2 in August, and far below forecasts of 58. September marks the second straight month of falling sentiment, pulling it to the lowest level since May.

The overall consumer price index increased 0.4% in August, double the rate recorded in July. Looking back a year, CPI was up 2.9%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the month prior.

30-year fixed mortgage rates softened to 6.35% for the week ending September 11, down from 6.50% the week prior. That marks the sharpest weekly drop so far in 2025.

As expected, the UK's economy was flat between June and July. Despite a strong first half of the year, economists forecast growth to slow over the second half of 2025 as US tariffs continue to bite.