Mortgage rates hit 7.12% The average housing payment is 12.7% higher than a year ago. It’s way too hard for the housing market to handle.

Apple’s S&P 500 cap hits 7.3%. The highest sway over the Index held by a single equity ever!

The 10y-2y yield curve is the most inverted since the 1980s. High net short positioning amid tight monetary policy—Fed hikes, often prove accurate.

NY Fed’s recession probability hits ~58%. The highest since 1982.

This is one of the most serious deposits contraction ever, and there will be consequences. Some big acquisitions, maybe? #banking

The pattern since 1970s: rate hikes —> recession. The magnitude, though, is still hard to predict.

Inflation is finally winding down—the Fed Funds Rate is now higher than Core PCE. The question is whether we see Fed rate cuts anytime soon.

The probability of a U.S. #recession is back on the rise for the first time since Nov‘22. Fund managers fear that a systemic credit crunch is the biggest tail risk this month ( #BofA fund manager survey).

How about regulation, though? https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-official-calls-silicon-valley-bank-failure-a-textbook-case-of-mismanagement-8e578ff1

#5things: Credit Suisse faces possible Swiss probe. Taiwan loses another ally. Fed official says bank turmoil increases US recession risk. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-03-26/five-things-you-need-to-know-to-start-your-day

Hi, Bluesky!