Which teams have overachieved relative to their roster? This graph compares the quality of each team's resume to their preseason roster grade at EvanMiya.com. Teams above the middle gray area have significantly out-performed their roster talent👇

INJURY MISFORTUNE This graph shows how much production each team has lost due to injuries this season, based on player ratings at EvanMiya.com. USC, Oregon, Washington, and Missouri have been pummeled by injuries 👇

It's only February, but @norlander.bsky.social and I are predicting tournament outcomes for 15 notable teams. Let us know what we got wrong ⬇️

THE KILL SHOT This graph tracks double digit scoring runs in games (10-0 or better) for teams over the course of the season. Here's all EvanMiya.com top 75 teams in terms of runs scored and runs conceded, adjusted for strength of opponent. 👀 Michigan, Zona, Florida

RESUME QUALITY Here are the teams with the best resumes in the sport, according to Resume Quality at EvanMiya.com. 1 seeds - UConn, Duke, Michigan, Iowa State 2 seeds - Nebraska, Arizona, Vandy, Purdue Squeaking in - Yale, Baylor, Cal, Texas A&M

🚨 The EvanMiya College Basketball Show is officially live🎙️ I'm hosting a weekly CBB show covering national storylines and recent trends, featuring multiple guests each week — plus a touch of analytics. First full episode drops on Tuesday morning! share.transistor.fm/s/7e1c4c82

PLAYER VALUE GRAPH This graph shows the top college basketball players in terms of per-possession offensive value (X axis) and defensive value (Y axis), according to BPR at EvanMiya.com 👇

EFFICIENCY LANDSCAPE: Here is the current predicted team efficiency landscape for college basketball, based on ratings from EvanMiya.com, split into tiers 👇

We have a gargantuan matchup tonight between Gonzaga and Michigan, both ranked in the top 4 at EvanMiya.com. Key stat: Under Dusty May, Michigan is 15-0 when their opponent shoots under 33.5% from three and has 8 or fewer steals. They are just 1-5 when their opponent hits both of these marks.

Duke currently has two of the top three most valuable players in the country, per BPR at EvanMiya.com. Cameron Boozer leads the nation, in part because of his ridiculous stat-line. And Patrick Ngongba has been a dependable secondary star, averaging 13/7 on 70% FG.

Purdue with an impressive first half "Avalanche" (20-0 run) against #15 Texas Tech! There have only been 12 total 20-0 runs in college basketball this season.

Here are the best wins any team has had this year according to Resume Quality at EvanMiya.com, in order: Arizona @ UConn Alabama vs Illinois Arizona vs Florida Purdue @ Alabama Michigan St. vs Kentucky Alabama @ St. John's UConn vs BYU Arizona owns 2 of the top 3.

It's been 332 days since Michigan State had 6 different players hit a three-pointer in a game (Dec 21, 2024 vs FAU) Tonight against Kentucky, the Spartans have 6 players who have connected from deep, all in the first 14 minutes of the game.

Here are the players with the best statistical output in college basketball two weeks into the season, according to Box BPR at EvanMiya.com, adjusted for opponent strength. Cameron Boozer is head and shoulders above everyone else.

Notable team movement from the preseason at EvanMiya.com: 🔼Indiana 42nd to 20th 🔼Georgia 40 to 23 🔼Saint Mary's 43 to 24 🔼Syracuse 66 to 39 🔽UCLA 10 to 26 🔽Michigan State 22 to 33 🔽Oregon 23 to 40 🔽Miss State 28 to 48 🔽Creighton 31 to 50 🔽Texas A&M 45 to 73

UConn takes on BYU tonight in a top 12 battle according to EvanMiya.com. UConn has dominated an easy schedule, but BYU will be their first real test of the season. The trio of Saunders, Dybantsa, and Wright is a handful. Predicted score: UConn 77, BYU 74.

Tonight's blockbuster matchup between Purdue and Alabama is genuinely one of the most enticing non-con matchups we could possibly have. The stakes feel so high. Will Purdue finally show their title credentials? Is this Alabama team Final Four good? Predicted score Bama 84-82.

I have lineup projections up at EvanMiya.com for almost every possible lineup we could see in college basketball this year. Here are the best predicted lineups in every statistical category: blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-lineu...

I simulated the season 10,000 times to determine the best-case and worst-case outcomes for all 365 CBB teams, using the preseason uncertainty estimates specific to each team. You can find the results for every single conference here 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-prese...

The top 30 individual seasons in college basketball since 2010, using Bayesian Performance Rating at EvanMiya.com. BPR quantifies per-possession value added through box stats and team impact metrics ⤵️

After some big offseason upgrades to the Bayesian Performance Rating model, I've put together an article I've been meaning to do for a long time. A full breakdown of the BPR model, and why I believe it's the best player metric in college basketball 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/bayesian-p...

The disparity between the high majors and the rest of college basketball has never felt bigger. The conference strength drop from the Big East to the A-10 is larger than the gap between 6th and 17th. Here's the full conference rankings list from EvanMiya.com ⬇️

Interesting to compare the preseason top 50 at EvanMiya.com to @kenpom.com, which just released this morning. Some teams I'm higher on: Arizona BYU Oregon NC State Miami Oklahoma Teams I'm lower on: Kentucky Texas Tech Baylor Wisconsin USC

Here are the top 30 players in CBB in the preseason ratings at EvanMiya.com! These projections take into account statistical output, impact on team performance, performance in previous seasons, and high school recruiting profile.

Here is the preseason top 25 at EvanMiya.com!

CBB preseason projections are live at EvanMiya.com! You'll find: 🏀 Team and player projections 💪 MVP and Most Indispensable player rankings 📈 Roster strength rankings, player skill grades, and much more Here are the top 10 teams and players ⬇️

A new "Roster Outlook" tool is up at EvanMiya.com! You can input any set of players to see how that roster would typically rank in the preseason. Here are the outlooks for one team from each of the major conferences ⤵️ blog.evanmiya.com/p/five-team-...

Mid-majors are struggling more than ever to find sustainable success year-over-year. In the modern NIL era, how can these programs keep up? I conducted a study to find the best roster construction strategies for mid-majors. Here are the results ⤵️ blog.evanmiya.com/p/mid-major-...

My official bracket is done. Here's my analysis of all my picks:

New Mexico has some real potential to make a deep run in this tournament. Outside of Florida, no team is better at playing up to elite competition. New Mexico puts their best on display in big games, so they've got a shot to make some real noise as an underdog.

Houston having to potentially play Gonzaga in the 2nd round is so unfair. Houston's chances of making a Final Four are 43%. If the 8 seed in their region was Mississippi State, not Gonzaga, their probability of making a Final Four would be up at 52%.

I'm torn on St. John's for this reason: They play much better against their toughest opponents ✅ But they haven't played any team inside the top 20 at EvanMiya.com this year ❌ Florida, Texas Tech, Maryland, and even Kansas are ranked higher than any team in the Big East.

I love UC San Diego's ability to move the ball. The Tritons have four players in the 93rd percentile or better in Playmaking Score at EvanMiya.com, which accounts for assists and turnovers. The only other team with as many as 4 is Wisconsin.

Here are the tournament teams that play up to competition the most, according to the Opponent Strength Adjustment at EvanMiya.com. They play their best ball against top opposition: 1. Florida 2. New Mexico 3. Memphis 4. Drake 5. Wisconsin 6. St. John's 7. Grand Canyon

Several weeks ago I was ready to go all in on Texas Tech in the tournament. They were a top 6 team at EvanMiya.com at the time, and have incredible shooters and a dominant big man in JT Toppin. They aren't in quite as favorable a spot now, but I'm still rolling with them in my Final Four.

I really like Maryland's path to a Sweet 16, if not further. If they beat GCU, they would face either Memphis or Colorado State, both of which they would be favored to beat by 6 points according to EvanMiya.com. They are the strongest 4-seed in the tourney and could give Florida a test.

Here are the tourney teams with the biggest injury adjustment at EvanMiya.com due to players who are either questionable or unable to play in the first round: 1. Iowa State 2. Duke 3. Texas Tech 4. Kentucky 5. Arkansas

The "Kill Shot": Tracking 10-0 scoring runs for tournament teams! The graph shows how many 10-0 runs a team has per game and how many runs they concede, adjusted for competition 👇

Here is how every tournament team stacks up based on their team strength compared to their seed, using ratings at EvanMiya.com. Teams way better than typical for their seed are "underseeded" and advance 59% further than normal. There are 12 teams this year 👇

There are only five teams I'd feel comfortable picking as the winner in my bracket. Digging into the efficiency numbers here, including some tough paths for a few teams 👇

There is a 68% chance a 1-seed wins the tournament this year, using tourney odds at EvanMiya.com. Duke - 24.7% Houston - 15.4% Florida - 15.1% Auburn - 13.1%

Here is the March Madness efficiency landscape, comparing each team's predicted offensive and defensive efficiency at EvanMiya.com, adjusted for current injuries:

The EvanMiya.com bracket primer is here! In this bracket deep-dive, I cover: - Who are the true title favorites? - Which teams have the most value? - Who are the cinderellas? - What can the "Kill Shot" tell us? And much more 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/the-evanmi...

On a first pass, it seems like the selection committee paid a lot of attention to Wins Above Bubble for selection and seeding. Last four in: Texas - 46 Xavier - 49 SDSU - 44 UNC - 43 First Four out: West Virginia - 42(?) IU - 48 Ohio St. - 55 Boise St. - 53

Tomorrow I'll be putting up the official EvanMiya bracket primer. It will include all the big graphics and what to learn from them, including: Predicted Efficiency Landscape Title Favorites Underseeded/Overseeded Teams The Kill Shot™️ Stay tuned 👇 blog.evanmiya.com

Official bracket simulations are officially live on the Bracket Sims page at EvanMiya.com! This is the most fun way to fill out your bracket. Just press "Run New Simulation" and go to town.

This year's 8 seeds are better than 5 seeds. 5-seed team rankings at EvanMiya.com: 22. Clemson 31. Michigan 37. Oregon 40. Memphis 8-seed team rankings: 9. Gonzaga 18. Louisville 21. UConn 35. Mississippi State

Official March Madness Tournament Probabilities, according to EvanMiya.com! These simulations account for current injuries. Region-specific probabilities in 🧵

For those filling out brackets, the Matchup Preview tool at EvanMiya.com is a game changer. It lets you analyze any potential matchup in the tournament, showing predicted score, injury adjustments, stats, and more. Here's a possible Florida vs UConn 2nd round matchup

UC San Diego would be one of the best 12 seeds we've ever seen if they get put on that line. They are ranked 42nd at EvanMiya.com, better than 6-7 other teams that will be in as at-larges.