Matt Male (@mattmale.bsky.social)

'No idea who will win Monash' says Antony Green The Liberals' Mary Aldred is still well placed to win Monashj at her first attempt. “WE’VE got no idea who is going to win Monash tonight”. That’s how the ABC’s election expert Antony Green characterized the situation in Monash at 10pm tonight. Votes, he said, were going all over the place with no indication how it will turn out. The Liberals’ Mary Aldred (29.61%) will top the poll for first preference votes, followed by the ALP’s Tully Fletcher (19.35%) but not far behind Labor is independent Deb Leonard who as boosted her 2022 vote by 7% to 18.91% to be within striking distance of taking the seat. It will all come down to preferences. Ms Leonard needs to get past Tully Fletcher when preferences from small party candidates are distributed to get the benefit of the flow of ALP preferences but it could take days before the outcome is revealed. The Sky TV coverage put Ms Leonard in front but also anticipated "a long count ahead in that seat". At this stage, with 13,124 first preference votes, the Liberals’ Mary Aldred is in the boxseat to win Monash, especially if she collects the lion’s share of former Liberal Russell Broadbent’s preferences. Mr Broadbent has attracted 10.34% of the vote in his own right, or 4,584 votes by 10pm but Ms Leonard remains a live possibility tonight with a primary vote of 8,385, just a handful of votes behind Tully Fletcher (ALP) on 8,578 votes. See the latest Monash count HERE Deb Leonard voting on election day. https://www.sgst.com.au/news/no-idea-who-will-win-monash-says-antony-green?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=bluesky