Geofutures
@geofutures.bsky.social
📤 410
📥 356
📝 1187
Foresight in geopolitics and social issues, with an eye on science fiction
A WaPo science writer forecast the technology of 2026 in 1976.
wapo.st/4wssB3v
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50 years ago, The Post pictured life in 2026. Here’s what it got right.
Science editor Thomas O’Toole forecast innovations, including gene editing, deep-sea mining and nuclear-powered artificial hearts.
https://wapo.st/4wssB3v
about 12 hours ago
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I recognize Rutte's approach from advice for dealing with dementia patients: you just have to live in their imagined worlds as necessary.
add a skeleton here at some point
about 13 hours ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "A Scanner Darkly," which came out 20 years ago today.
1 day ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: “A.I.”, which came out 25 years ago. This was the best futurist film of 2001—and one of the bleakest movie visions of the human future.
3 days ago
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I suspect 2036 is way too early for a self-sustaining AI population.
asteriskmag.com/issues/14/ho...
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How Long Until AI Doesn’t Need Humans?
She thinks it’s nearly imminent. He doesn’t.
https://asteriskmag.com/issues/14/how-long-until-ai-doesn-t-need-humans
3 days ago
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US racial-ethnic demography under 3 immigration scenarios
3 days ago
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Happy 250th to the United States!
5 days ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "Terminator 2," which came out 35 years ago today.
5 days ago
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With net-zero immigration, the US population would begin falling and be down to 312 million by 2051.
www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
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America is turning 250. Here's how immigration may shape its future. | Brookings
As the United States approaches its 250th anniversary, new demographic projections show how different levels of immigration could shape the nation’s population, workforce, and future growth.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-immigration-may-shape-america-after-250/
6 days ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "The Tomorrow War," which came out 5 years ago today.
7 days ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "I'm Your Man," which came out 5 years ago today. It was one of the better futurist films of 2021.
7 days ago
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If the US goes into Cuba, "fallout from an ill-considered intervention could include state collapse, an even more calamitous humanitarian emergency and further waves of emigration, with consequences that are hard to calculate."
#Cuba
#future
www.crisisgroup.org/stm/latin-am...
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A Way Out of Cuba’s Dead End | International Crisis Group
The U.S. has long employed coercion to produce political change in Cuba, but little compares to its present campaign. With Cubans suffering tremendous hardship, the standoff cannot continue indefinite...
https://www.crisisgroup.org/stm/latin-america-caribbean/cuba-united-states/way-out-cubas-dead-end
13 days ago
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reposted by
Geofutures
Nils Gilman
15 days ago
Yesterday was likely the hottest day in France since the last interglacial (125,000 years ago). There is going to be some terrible human news from this…
#NothingToSeeHere
#MoveRightAlong
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "The Door into Summer," which came out 5 years ago today.
14 days ago
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The exit dilemma for strongmen: "Once you have dismantled institutions, enriched yourself and your cronies, and bent the law to your will, you cannot simply lose an election and retire to write your memoirs."
foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/19/o...
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Orban’s Defeat Is Being Dangerously Misread
Panicking strongmen will turn to more extreme measures.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/19/orban-defeat-strongman-playbook-erdogan/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=b3JiYW4tZGVmZWF0LXN0cm9uZ21hbi1wbGF5Ym9vay1lcmRvZ2Fu&pid=CW2719942
15 days ago
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Futurist at the movies: "Logan's Run," which came out 50 years ago today. Imperfect as entertainment, this is still a highlight of 1970s futurist films.
16 days ago
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"Governments across the world are already acting on a shared diagnosis: the United States is no longer reliable, and reducing long-term dependence on Washington has become a strategic imperative."
www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
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The Long Shadow of the Iran War
Trump’s most consequential foreign policy mistake.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/redeem/X8g-Dw3IXwg
16 days ago
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Techno-libertarians encroach on the sovereignty of small states including Caribbean islands --
www.economist.com/the-americas...
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Techno-libertarians are flocking to the Caribbean
Angry locals are trying to shut them down
https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2026/06/11/techno-libertarians-are-flocking-to-the-caribbean?giftId=MmMyZGIwMWMtMDY4Ni00M2FjLWFmOWYtYzVmMzY1YjY2MTY3&utm_campaign=gifted_article
20 days ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "The Food of the Gods," which came out 50 years ago today. This is the worst film adaptation of H.G. Wells that I'm aware of.
21 days ago
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Google AI doesn't actually know where Trump's proposed arch will be. (The site is in Washington DC, on Columbia Island.)
21 days ago
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Switzerland voted on whether to limit its population to 10 million, opting for "no"
www.bbc.com/news/article...
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Swiss vote against proposal to cap population at 10 million
Nearly 55% of participants voted against the proposal to cap population by cutting migration, results show.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20ygjem17zo
22 days ago
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Some characters in "Disclosure Day" greatly exaggerate the impact of learning that aliens exist, but the movie itself depicts only momentary fascination, which would indeed occur.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/12/d...
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The Aliens Aren’t the Most Unbelievable Part of Steven Spielberg’s New Movie
Would even extraterrestrials inspire humanity to unite these days?
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/12/disclosure-day-steven-spielberg-review/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=ZGlzY2xvc3VyZS1kYXktc3RldmVuLXNwaWVsYmVyZy1yZXZpZXc=&pid=CW2719942
23 days ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "Disclosure Day"
24 days ago
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"The United States and Israel fought Iran, and China won. America’s setback with Iran has widened a lane for China to assert greater influence and leadership on the world stage."
www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
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How the Iran war benefits China’s global ambitions | Brookings
America’s setback with Iran has widened a lane for China to assert greater influence and leadership on the world stage.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-the-iran-war-benefits-chinas-global-ambitions/
24 days ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "Earth vs. the Flying Saucers," which came out 70 years ago today.
26 days ago
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Given that “Disclosure Day” is said to be a kind of companion to “Close Encounters of the Third Kind,” here’s my microreview of Spielberg's first alien film. It rates as the overall best futurist movie of the 1970s.
27 days ago
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A detailed scenario for the climate change-driven geography of habitability in 2100.
interaktiv.morgenpost.de/klimawandel-...
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Climate change: Mapping in 3D where the earth will become uninhabitable
Lethal heat, flooded coastlines, powerful tropical storms: Find out where populations are projected to be hit hardest with our interactive 3D visualisation.
https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/klimawandel-hitze-meeresspiegel-wassermangel-stuerme-unbewohnbar/en.html
28 days ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "Awake," which came out 5 years ago today.
30 days ago
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This was AI's best attempt at drawing me a green woolly mammoth 4 years ago.
30 days ago
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"Jack Clark, an Anthropic co-founder, thinks there is a 60% chance that, by the end of 2028, an AI system will be capable of creating its own successor with no human involvement."
www.economist.com/science-and-...
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Will artificial intelligence soon escape human control?
“Recursive self-improvement” is both tantalising and worrying
https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2026/06/07/will-artificial-intelligence-soon-escape-human-control?giftId=YzE2MTYzNjItNWM1ZS00MTNjLWFkYjYtMGJkYjM5MjZjMjY2&utm_campaign=gifted_article
30 days ago
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"India, where more than 90% of women get married and only 33% work, is seeing fertility slump, too."
www.economist.com/briefing/202...
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India’s population will soon be falling—probably quite fast
Neither widespread poverty, nor high rates of marriage nor relatively young mothers are sustaining fertility
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2026/06/04/indias-population-will-soon-be-falling-probably-quite-fast?giftId=MDUxMDZiZGUtYjgwOC00MzdmLTg1MjAtMmIwMzZlODEzZGFi&utm_campaign=gifted_article
about 1 month ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "Greenland 2: Migration." Depicting the 5-year aftermath of a giant comet impact, the movie is not as good as the first in every dimension.
about 1 month ago
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"AI exposure—and related potential political anxiety—concentrates in Democratic-leaning places: Sixty-two of the 100 most AI-exposed U.S. counties went “blue” in the 2024 presidential election."
www.brookings.edu/articles/ai-...
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The political geography of AI exposure | Brookings
As concerns about AI’s impact on jobs grow, understanding where AI-exposed workers live and how they vote offers new insight into the technology’s emerging political geography ahead of the election.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/ai-political-geography-worker-exposure/
about 1 month ago
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Foresight ignored: years of war games predicted Iran closing the Straight of Hormuz if attacked --
www.nytimes.com/2026/06/02/u...
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War Games and Warnings on Strait of Hormuz Went Unheeded by Trump
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/02/us/politics/trump-iran-strait-of-hormuz.html?unlocked_article_code=1.nVA.Z3Y9.6kcAhAyt2pSF&smid=url-share
about 1 month ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "Into the Forest," which came out 10 years ago today, and is one of the better futurist films of 2016.
about 1 month ago
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"Cuba would be harder than Venezuela to reconstruct, both politically and economically." "Every option is fraught. A deal big enough to satisfy Messrs Trump and Rubio looks hard to achieve; military action may fail to accomplish what diplomacy has not."
www.economist.com/the-americas...
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Would American military action against Cuba work?
All the options are fraught
https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2026/05/27/would-american-military-action-against-cuba-work?giftId=ODEwYjA1ZWUtYjM3Yy00YjEwLWI0OTQtN2U0MmVhMTZhMGUz&utm_campaign=gifted_article
about 1 month ago
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"A more radical option is to offer workers direct stakes in the progress of AI. One way to do this would be to spread ownership of the companies developing the technology more widely, whether by handing out shares or through sovereign-wealth funds."
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
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How to share the AI windfall
Are taxes enough?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/05/14/how-to-share-the-ai-windfall?giftId=YjZiZGQ2YTQtZWYzNS00NWE1LWI3NDYtMTU5MmY0Nzc2NWFj&utm_campaign=gifted_article
about 1 month ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "A Quiet Place 2," which came out 5 years ago today.
about 1 month ago
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“Not only can our military not save American democracy, it can’t even save itself from democracy.”
foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/22/u...
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The Book About the U.S. Military That Everyone Should Be Reading Now
Kori Schake’s ‘The State and the Soldier’ is the discussion on civilian control of the military that this moment requires.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/22/us-military-book-state-soldier-schake-trump-hegseth/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dXMtbWlsaXRhcnktYm9vay1zdGF0ZS1zb2xkaWVyLXNjaGFrZS10cnVtcC1oZWdzZXRo&pid=CW2719942
about 1 month ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "X-Men: The Last Stand," which came out 20 years ago today.
about 1 month ago
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Trump could blunder into a complex, messy, and possibly bloody situation in Cuba --
foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/22/c...
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Is the United States on the Verge of Military Intervention in Cuba?
Seizing Castro could prove more costly and less effective than the capture of Maduro.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/22/cuba-war-trump-united-states-castro-indictment/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=Y3ViYS13YXItdHJ1bXAtdW5pdGVkLXN0YXRlcy1jYXN0cm8taW5kaWN0bWVudA==&pid=CW2719942
about 1 month ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "Escape from the Planet of the Apes," which came out 55 years ago today.
about 1 month ago
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If the construction company plays its cards right, it can switch midway to the arch demolition contract.
add a skeleton here at some point
about 1 month ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "Melancholia," which came out 15 years ago today.
about 1 month ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "Master of the World," which came out 65 years ago today.
about 2 months ago
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"By 2100, 46% of all people under 25 are projected to live in Africa, compared with 39% in Asia."
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
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5 facts about Africa’s population growth
While global population growth is projected to slow over the rest of the century, Africa stands out for its relatively young and growing population.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/05/19/5-facts-about-africas-population-growth/
about 2 months ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "Outland," which came out 45 years ago today.
about 2 months ago
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"If political violence committed in the president’s name is not only tolerated but actively rewarded, it could take this already bleak timeline somewhere much, much darker."
www.nytimes.com/2026/05/21/o...
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Opinion | Trump Just Took Us Somewhere the Country Has Never Been Before
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/21/opinion/corruption-trump-slush-fund.html?unlocked_article_code=1.kVA.4dRp.u29Pi461xIPK&smid=url-share
about 2 months ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "Escape from New York," which came out 45 years ago today. Many American cities are doing better than they were in 1981; the chance of great power war dropped since then, but is now rising again.
about 2 months ago
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I encountered one of the surviving crew members of the Nostromo.
about 2 months ago
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