Geofutures
@geofutures.bsky.social
📤 408
📥 354
📝 1087
Foresight in geopolitics and social issues, with an eye on science fiction
The outline of an abundance foreign policy --
foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/23/a...
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What Would an Abundance Foreign Policy Look Like?
Turning a popular idea from the American left outward.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/23/abundance-foreign-policy-united-states-democracy-ezra-klein-derek-thompson/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=YWJ1bmRhbmNlLWZvcmVpZ24tcG9saWN5LXVuaXRlZC1zdGF0ZXMtZGVtb2NyYWN5LWV6cmEta2xlaW4tZGVyZWstdGhvbXBzb24=&pid=CW2719942
2 days ago
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In Iran, "Khamenei was arguably one of the few people standing between Iran and nuclear weapons. Internal calls to build the bomb had grown within the regime over the past several years as Tehran’s strategic environment deteriorated."
foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/07/i...
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Preventing an Iranian Bomb Is Only Getting Harder
A weaker, angrier, more suspicious regime with a less cautious supreme leader and leverage over Hormuz. What could go wrong?
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/07/iran-bomb-nuclear-trump-war-ayatollah-khamenei/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi1ib21iLW51Y2xlYXItdHJ1bXAtd2FyLWF5YXRvbGxhaC1raGFtZW5laQ==&pid=CW2719942
3 days ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "Voyagers," which came out 5 years ago today.
3 days ago
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With nuke waste that will be dangerous for 100,000 years, do you mark it with warnings, or hide any trace it's there?
whyisthisinteresting.substack.com/p/the-ark-bu...
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The Ark Builders Edition
On deep time, global hiding places, and the case for forgetting.
https://whyisthisinteresting.substack.com/p/the-ark-builders-edition
4 days ago
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Setting aside the source, this has some interesting ideas about how to deal with wealth and income if AI proves transformative --
qz.com/openai-robot...
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OpenAI on robot taxes, public wealth fund, AI jobs in policy
The ChatGPT maker released a policy blueprint that also proposes a four-day workweek pilot, automatic safety net triggers, and universal AI access
https://qz.com/openai-robot-taxes-public-wealth-fund-ai-jobs
4 days ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "The Thing from Another World," which came out 75 years ago today. (My alternative school showed this when I was little, and it scared me.)
5 days ago
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Earth being eclipsed as Artemis II flies behind the Moon
6 days ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "28 Years Later: The Bone Temple." This is my least-favorite Alex Garland futurist movie.
6 days ago
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Iran's new leaders -- "Not only are they more hard-line and radicalized, they are less risk-averse than the previous leadership. One of the most important criticisms against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was that he was too cautious."
foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/01/t...
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Tehran Is Setting a Trap for Trump
Iran’s new leaders are more radical and less risk-averse than their predecessors.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/01/trump-trap-iran-war-leadership-global-economy-ali-vaez/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtdHJhcC1pcmFuLXdhci1sZWFkZXJzaGlwLWdsb2JhbC1lY29ub215LWFsaS12YWV6&pid=CW2719942
9 days ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "The Assessment." This is one of the strongest 2025 films about the future that I've seen so far. Note: it is not "the near future" -- probably late 22nd century or later.
10 days ago
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Places that have disappeared in the future due to climate change, in a recent future-set "Simpsons"
11 days ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "Source Code," which came out 15 years ago today.
11 days ago
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Officials who could help destroy American democracy in 2026 or 2028 --
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
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Where Trump Has Installed 2020 Election Deniers in Government
His administration is stocked with people who have questioned the legitimacy of elections, including some who have claimed that the 2020 presidential race was stolen.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/03/26/us/politics/trump-2020-election-deniers.html
16 days ago
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Backing up human civilization on the Moon --
www.iftf.org/projects/ift...
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IFTF Urgent Future Forecast Perspective: A Civilization Backup On The Moon
https://www.iftf.org/projects/iftf-urgent-future-forecast-perspective-a-civilization-backup-on-the-moon/
16 days ago
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@themadstone.bsky.social
Thanks for your newsletter. "Project Hail Mary" is worth seeing -- I thought it one of the best films from a futurist perspective in years. This was my microreview --
16 days ago
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Three scenarios for future global geopolitics --
foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/23/p...
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Three Scenarios for a Post-Trump World
Ten years hence, the world will look very different.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/23/post-trump-world-order-cold-war-spheres-of-influence/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=cG9zdC10cnVtcC13b3JsZC1vcmRlci1jb2xkLXdhci1zcGhlcmVzLW9mLWluZmx1ZW5jZQ==&pid=CW2719942
16 days ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "Just Imagine," a 1930 movie imagining the strange world of 1980.
17 days ago
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Trump's war of choice in Iran is undercutting US military strength in Asia and globally --
www.economist.com/briefing/202...
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The Iran war could sap American military power for years
America's war in Iran strains military resources, depleting munitions and air defences needed for potential conflicts in Asia and Ukraine.
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2026/03/18/the-iran-war-could-sap-american-military-power-for-years?giftId=ZDIyY2JkNTctYzQxYS00NGI3LWIxYzYtOGI0YTM0NjA3YzNk&utm_campaign=gifted_article
17 days ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "World Without End," which came out 70 years ago today. For 1950s sci-fi, it's pretty good.
18 days ago
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An extensive review of the science of "Project Hail Mary."
medium.com/@umartabbsum...
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I Watched Project Hail Mary and Then Spent Days Doing the Math
A PhD-Level Breakdown of Every Organism, Equation, Material, Scene, and Production Decision
https://medium.com/@umartabbsum/i-watched-project-hail-mary-and-then-spent-days-doing-the-math-607f47cc4fd2
18 days ago
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Dalio gets 2 things wrong: America's rep would be damaged further by trying to control the Strait of Hormuz, as it lacks the capacity (means + will) to achieve this. And he exaggerates consequences: US never had control of the Strait, so we can't "lose" it
raydalio.substack.com/p/it-all-com...
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It All Comes Down to Who Controls the Strait of Hormuz: The “Final Battle"
I have found that most wars are filled with big disagreements about what is likely to happen and big surprises.
https://raydalio.substack.com/p/it-all-comes-down-to-who-controls
18 days ago
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In Iran, "If Trump comes to feel trapped or desperate, he might resort to extreme measures that involve reckless deployments of ground troops or even the use of unconventional weapons, leading to a protracted conflict or a wider global war."
foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/20/t...
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What Trump May Do if He Loses in Iran
The president’s go-to playbook in the face of defeat would be especially dangerous in the context of war.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/20/trump-iran-war-outcome-failure/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtaXJhbi13YXItb3V0Y29tZS1mYWlsdXJl&pid=CW2719942
19 days ago
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"The odds of Iran becoming a nuclear weapons state are now higher than ever before." -- expert Ali Vaez on "On Point"
www.wbur.org/radio/progra...
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Next episode
The latest show topics from On Point, updated daily.
https://www.wbur.org/radio/programs/onpoint/episode
19 days ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "Project Hail Mary"
20 days ago
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"The school appeared in Iranian business listings. It was visible on Google Maps. A search engine could have found it. Nobody searched. At a thousand decisions an hour, nobody was going to."
artificialbureaucracy.substack.com/p/kill-chain
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Kill Chain
On the automated bureaucratic machinery that killed 175 children
https://artificialbureaucracy.substack.com/p/kill-chain
20 days ago
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reposted by
Geofutures
Nils Gilman
20 days ago
The central faultline of the emerging post-liberal international order will be a geopolitical struggle over what metabolic-industrial system will dominate the 21st century — with smaller powers struggling to avoid total alignment with either bloc. My latest:
foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/23/c...
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The New Metabolic World Order
Opposing the petrostates will be the Green Entente.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/23/climate-change-world-order-green-transition-fossil-fuel/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=Y2xpbWF0ZS1jaGFuZ2Utd29ybGQtb3JkZXItZ3JlZW4tdHJhbnNpdGlvbi1mb3NzaWwtZnVlbA==&pid=OC5760169
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Canadians wargaming Canada's security are considering the "need to address a number of contingencies that could arise if the US continues its present transition from the cornerstone of the Western alliance to a unpredictable and predatory hegemon."
paxsims.wordpress.com/2026/03/22/c...
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Connections North 2026 conference report
On March 14, Connections North held its tenth annual professional (war)gaming conference, this time at the National Capital Region Officers’ Mess in Ottawa. As is a Connections North tradition, it …
https://paxsims.wordpress.com/2026/03/22/connections-north-2026-conference-report/
20 days ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "In the Blink of an Eye." I found aspects of this moving, despite the lack of one of those, uh – what are they called? – plots.
23 days ago
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"Allowing the United States to dictate the shape of Cuba’s political future is almost certainly a bridge too far for Havana."
foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/17/t...
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The United States Might Settle for Less Than Regime Change in Cuba
Talks underway center on economic reforms.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/17/the-united-states-might-settle-for-less-than-regime-change-in-cuba/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dGhlLXVuaXRlZC1zdGF0ZXMtbWlnaHQtc2V0dGxlLWZvci1sZXNzLXRoYW4tcmVnaW1lLWNoYW5nZS1pbi1jdWJh&pid=CW2719942
24 days ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "Limitless," which came out 15 years ago today.
25 days ago
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Some people have wanted war on Iran for a long time -- this is a 10-year-old photo.
25 days ago
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How to write prediction market contracts badly. Really badly.
goodjudgment.substack.com/p/let-me-get...
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Let Me Get This Strait
Polymarket’s Strait of Hormuz contracts show what happens when you define the rules mid-game, writes Ryan Adler, Superforecaster and Good Judgment Question Team Lead.
https://goodjudgment.substack.com/p/let-me-get-this-strait
25 days ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "V for Vendetta," which came out 20 years ago today.
26 days ago
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War on Iran -- "Continuing the war would mean greater economic havoc ... and a growing political liability. Nor is it clear what more the war can achieve on the ground other than deepening the present economic and strategic dilemmas."
www.crisisgroup.org/stm/middle-e...
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Finding an Off-ramp in the Middle East War | International Crisis Group
While the U.S. and Israel have damaged Iran in the Middle East war, Tehran has expanded the conflict. With neither side positioned for a decisive win, the escalation risks are sobering. Diplomacy is c...
https://www.crisisgroup.org/stm/middle-east-north-africa/iran-israelpalestine-united-states/finding-ramp-middle-east-war
27 days ago
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Maybe he wants house atomics, like the leading families of the Dune universe?
www.axios.com/2026/03/16/a...
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WATCH: Anduril's Palmer Luckey talks AI, nukes and Iran on "The Axios Show"
Luckey joined Axios' Colin Demarest from Anduril's Costa Mesa, California headquarters.
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/16/axios-show-palmer-luckey-anduril-ai
27 days ago
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A blatant First Amendment threat is another data point that soft authoritarianism is a wholly plausible scenario at this point --
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
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Republican rebukes FCC chair’s threats to revoke broadcast licenses over Iran war
Senator Ron Johnson pushes back, saying he’s not in favor of government meddling in freedom of speech
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/15/fcc-chair-broadcasters-license-iran-war
27 days ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "War Machine." This is a run-of-the-mill man-vs.-monster, alien invasion movie, but not a bad one, as it avoids the usual pitfalls of Netflix sci-fi.
30 days ago
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Military AIs have begun to kill large numbers of innocent people. The question is just whether it is more, fewer, or just different people.
www.technologyreview.com/2026/03/12/1...
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A defense official reveals how AI chatbots could be used for targeting decisions
Though the US military's big data initiative Maven has sped up the planning of strikes for years, the comments suggest that generative AI is now adding a new interpretative layer to such deliberations...
https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/03/12/1134243/defense-official-military-use-ai-chatbots-targeting-decisions/
30 days ago
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@geneweingarten.bsky.social
Check out both photo captions on this Post article
about 1 month ago
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Six years since this ironic movie announcement from
@newamerica.org
/ Future Tense --
about 1 month ago
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"From a security standpoint, the abrupt collapse of the Cuban state could lead to internal conflict, mass exodus, and expanded trafficking routes in the Florida Straits."
foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/10/t...
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Why Trump Should Be Careful What He Wishes for in Cuba
A manufactured crisis could lead to state collapse, with lasting consequences for the United States.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/10/trump-cuba-regime-change-state-collapse/
about 1 month ago
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The Iran war unintended consequences: "terrorist attacks in the West, an oil revenue bonanza for Russia, instability in Iraq, ..., civil conflict or the territorial breakup of Iran, or the rise of a repressive military regime in Tehran."
foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/10/t...
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Trump Promised to Tear Up the Regime-Change Playbook. He Is Now Following It.
Exaggerate the threat and underestimate the consequences.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/10/trump-regime-change-playbook-iran/
about 1 month ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "Battle: Los Angeles," which came out 15 years ago today.
about 1 month ago
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"Summary execution of companies for political noncompliance makes for a poor environment for the kind of capital formation that funds frontier AI development at scale."
qz.com/anthropic-cl...
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Anthropic vs. the Pentagon: A threat to America's AI boom
Can the U.S. win an AI arms race against China when its own government attacks the American companies doing the racing?
https://qz.com/anthropic-claude-pentagon-ai-boom-investors-china
about 1 month ago
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reposted by
Geofutures
Garrett M. Graff
about 1 month ago
I’m struck by how every day the admin is like “whoever could have foreseen these consequences?!” when the consequences thus far — evacuations, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, rise in gas prices, etc. — are all the literal most obvious consequences.
add a skeleton here at some point
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@vermontgmg.bsky.social
How likely is it that 2 Ospreys flying NW out of DC the afternoon of the State of the Union were carrying a designated survivor?
about 1 month ago
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Futurist at the movies microreview: "The Adjustment Bureau," which came out 15 years ago today.
about 1 month ago
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Maloney on Iran's future: The regime is deeply embedded and well-armed, and we are likely to end up with a determined rump version of the current regime.
www.brookings.edu/events/us-ir...
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War in Iran: What happens next? | Brookings
On March 3, Brookings scholars will discuss tensions between the United States and Iran.
https://www.brookings.edu/events/us-iran-tensions-what-happens-next/
about 1 month ago
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Vali Nasr: Iran thinks that "if the war went on longer, got bloodier, more complicated, then it would establish a deterrence against further American aggression against Iran down the road"
foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/02/n...
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Did Trump Miscalculate on Iran?
The White House is discovering that Iran and Israel have a higher tolerance for pain, according to Mideast expert Vali Nasr.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/02/nasr-trump-iran-israel-strikes-calculation/
about 1 month ago
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Cuba: "If protesters were to be met with a state-led crackdown, Washington could face a chorus of domestic demands for a decisive response, possibly extending to calls for military intervention."
www.crisisgroup.org/qna/latin-am...
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Hunger in Havana: Can the U.S. Cutoff Bring Change to Cuba? | International Crisis Group
Cuba is facing its biggest humanitarian crisis and the greatest threat to its political status quo in decades, after the U.S. clamped down on its energy supply. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains the ...
https://www.crisisgroup.org/qna/latin-america-caribbean/cuba-united-states/hunger-havana-can-us-cutoff-bring-change-cuba
about 1 month ago
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