Well at least we know what Trump and Xi talked about in their private meeting… I really hate this man. Just the utter contempt with which he holds everyone that isn’t himself or a sycophantic lickspittle is just awful. He is the biggest threat to world security at this moment - bar maybe Putin.

An excellent article on the material state of the Royal Fleet Auxiliary - the outfit I did all of my “military” service with. If you want to understand the state of decline of the capabilities of the Royal Navy - worth a read. If the Submarines are “silent service”, we’re the never heard of one

Once again diplomacy on the US/Israel-Iran War is stalling. Despite the state visit, China is not budging on its veto in the Security Council. This is more proof the 40 country coalition needs to go through the humanitarian corridors to get Hormuz open.

Well - she took a night off last night - but came home from school and wanted to cook with Daddy again. Her first Toad-in-the-Hole - and all I did was supervise and move hot things.

This is how to undermine the peace talks and promote wider instability - including the stand off with Iran over Hormuz... There needs to be a full UN resolution for peace across the entire region, and humanitarian corridors set up in the sea and on the land. The UN needs to catch up on this.

1/2 Starmer is supposed to be the manager. He is not managing anything. This was perfectly simple. Put out a statement saying you will not fight the next election but will remain in power until a successor is found. Anyone that wishes to stand must leave the cabinet…

Ok this psychodrama has got completely out of hand!! Labour are officially handing the country to Reform on a platter by being incapable of not tearing themselves apart. Farage should be in the ropes for £5 mil bribe/bung. Instead we have this dross.

1/5 From Windward Reporting - over 200 small boats are swarming around Larak Island (northern part of the Strait of Hormuz) - At the exact point where vessels are supposed to report to under the Iranian Transit Scheme... #Hormuz #AsymetricWarfare #MerchantShippingThreats #SmallBoatSwarm

Flash Alert from the UKMTO just this morning. An anchored vessel has been allegedly been boarded and is now enroute for Iranian waters. If true - this is a serious escalation and may lead to active measures - despite ongoing attempts at peace - I will keep digging... #IranWar #UKMTO

1/13 An opinion from the NYT by Thomas Friedman argues NATO should intervene directly in the Strait of Hormuz crisis to prevent Iran establishing de facto control over transit. I think the piece is slightly disingenuous, and frames this entirely through the wrong system. #Hormuz #MaritimeSecurity

Name your fav fantasy dragon. How can you not love Skittles?

Well - The book is in editing. The front cover has been made. The board has been set. The pieces are moving... I am going to officially be an author... I guess... Sample chapter should be published tomorrow(ish) on my website... #BookSky #Non-Fiction #Hormuz #IranWar

1/2 I told James O'Brien a few weeks ago now that the only way to set up a UN resolution for Hormuz would be through the humanitarian channels - because going via the Security Council would leave the subject open to veto by Russia and China... Today we get this...

I can’t just post doom and gloom. My daughter helped me make spaghetti and meatballs from scratch for dinner

1/4 I don't want to be critical - But I did do a dive into helium a few weeks ago and no one seemed that interested in it then... #HeluimSupply #AIInfastructure #IranWar #Hormuz

1/14 Trump’s latest Truth Social post on Iran is revealing not because it exaggerates success, but because it reveals how he appears to define military victory itself. I know it is Trump - and is probably nonsense - but it does deserve analysis. #Iran #Geopolitics #MilitaryStrategy

It is too late for me to break this down line by line and prove how poor this is as analysis of the battle space and of the mechanics of Iranian government and leadership. I will do it when I wake up tomorrow in a proper article and post thread. It deserves full analysis.

Watching Munya Chawawa’s Wrestling Documentary. Dan the “Progressive Liberal” being more articulate than the entire Trump cabinet is just so on point for this entire world situation.

"I don't think about the financial situation of Americans at all..." Or the lives of those he has destroyed and is going to destroy if he continues. Is it genuine evil? Or is it just stupidity that does incidental evil? Answers on a postcard. #Trump #OperationFreeDumb #Hormuz #IranWar

1/2 It is now confirmed by media reporting, that the UK will be sending "autonomous mine-hunting" and drone systems to the Gulf. This is a major announcement as it is dependent on the capabilities of RFA Lyme Bay, the sister-ship of the vessel I served on doing this same role. #RoyalFleetAuxiliary

May 09th and May 12th... This is just more shots in the Twit-War - very little in actual policy or announcements since the peace plans were roundly rejected by both sides. I am still watching and trying to analyse - though the pause is letting me work on Volume 1 of the books I am writing on this.

A quick reminder... Orwell feared we would kneel because we were afraid. Huxley feared we would kneel because it felt good. In Orwell’s world, obedience is compulsory. In Huxley’s, it is aspirational. #HuxleyNotOrwell #BraveNewWorld

It would appear that the IRGC is beginning to set out it's battle-space ahead of any potential escalation. I am sorry for the poor drawing - but I am not an artist - The yellow is the approx. limits of the Traffic Scheme and the red lines are what they just put out as their limits for the Strait.

I know we all have our areas of focus - and there is a lot going on. But is wall-to-wall coverage of a closed door really the beat use of the BBC’s time - you know. With Armageddon possible in the Middle East… #IranWar #WestminsterPsychoDrama

Slightly increase a band: Iron Woman

The irony of having to add this to my analysis of the situation is astounding. He said an hour ago the ceasefire is on life support. And now? Deal is possible. And you say “the change their minds”?!? #OperationFreeDumb #Trump #IranWar #Hormuz

Ok #BookSky I need a little advice please. I am looking to self-publish my first book - it is Volume 1 of an analysis of the current Hormuz Crises. 28k words of professional analysis and insight. The cover issue - what should I do for cover design? I am an analyst not an artist.

This echos the earlier statement from the US energy secretary. Hard to not to interpret these signals as the White House laying the preparation for a prolonged period of instability. Not necessarily an escalation. But clearly not a retreat from Hormuz any time soon. #IranWar #Hormuz

1/3 I think this is fascinating - going along with my current book writing (Volume 1 is nearly ready for editing). I am looking at how quickly the shipping industry can react to the challenges of Hormuz - and this just shows the adaptability in real time. #Hormuz #Shipping #IranWar

Someone needs to redo Max and Paddy's "Road To Nowhere" into "Road to 5 Million" for @mrjamesob.bsky.social and @henryriley1.bsky.social new reform round up jingle 😂

1/2 Rather than restate the obvious this morning, here are the words of a former US National Security Adviser. We are in limbo. The USA and Israel have three choices. Escalate, maintain or retreat. #IranWar #Hormuz #Geopolitics #Trump

Well... I wasn't wrong... Damn. #OperationFreeDumb #IranWar #Trump

An off-ramp was provided. And POTUS manages to make the most inappropriate comment that I could think of him making. At some point, someone needs to explain to this person that diplomatic language exists for a reason. Because diplomacy isn't like bullying in business talks. #OperationFreeDumb

While there has been no official response from the White House - Trump did post this article. Now - I am not taking this as he has read more than the headline. I assume he posts anything that has his name in it with other positive words he recognises... But the article is dark and full of terrors.

Well - I think we have Netanyahu's answer to Iran's proposals - and of course recorded before they could have possibly given it. So I said all of the posturing and diplomacy may hinge on Netanyahu and Trump... We can only hope that the White House will challenge this. #IranWar #NetanyahuResponse

1/6 I talked last week (video from 27:46) about there being (I think) 4 sticking points to the peace talks. 1) The Strait of Hormuz 2) The sanctions on Iran limiting economic growth 3) The seized assets being returned to Iranian control 4) The nuclear programme and fissionable material #HormuzLatest

I am hitting refresh and monitoring my dashboards while writing my book. Once I get the information I will upload and then get to the analysis - whichever way this goes. #IranWar #Diplomacy #Hormuz

Not all people that vote Reform are racist. But I am yet to meet a racist that has not voted for them…

1/13 A few days ago I was discussing with @mrjamesob.bsky.social on @lbc.co.uk how globalisation changed the logistics of naval power. For 30 years, major navies largely stopped needing visible forward presence in the way they did during the Cold War. #MaritimeSecurity #Geopolitics

Of interest to UK media should be that HMS Dragon is being sent East of Suez. RFA Lyme Bay seems to be being kitted up for Mine Countermeasures. I served on RFA Cardigan Bay doing the same role - so will be providing details of what this entails. #IranWar #RoyalNavy #MineHunter #RFALymeBay

I have a question for USA journalists right now... Has anyone tried asking if anyone at the White House can count? #TrumpTruth

I would like to take this opportunity to personally apologise to all authors. I have always had in my mind "It can't be that hard or take that long..." I am now eating words for breakfast, lunch and dinner. #BookSky #AuthorsDoHaveAHardJob

Oh good. The Department of Defence (war) has decided to distract us all from following the Iran War. Bu releasing a bunch of files that once again aren’t the Epstein Files. #DeadCat #IranWar #Trump #ThisWontMoveTheMarkets

I don't think the ceasefire is actually in effect. If it is - it is being ignored. But ignoring a ceasefire means, by definition, you are firing. Both sides are escalating engagements and rhetoric, despite claims of diplomacy. I am still trying to analyse this. #IranWar #CeasfireOrNot

Not something I shout about a lot. But my great grandmother was Turkish-Armenian. She escaped the death march with my Turkish great grandfather and worked for the foreign office in Egypt where my Grandfather was born. They came to the UK after. I love this for Armenia.

The reality for the seafarers trapped in a hell not of their making - all for the crime of being stuck at work... I know the Election is lots of value for pundits int he UK right now - but please do not lose sight of the struggle toward WW3 going on in the Middle East. #IranWar #SeafarersMatter

I know the UK is busy dissecting a Local Election bloodbath... But there are real bloodbaths happening all over the Middle East right now. I am still collating the data and information and keeping up the analysis - but I have written a full analysis of last night too - mentioned in comments.

From the same man that hours before used the language of the Domestic Violence Abuser (calling killing people in Iran a "Love Tap")... This is just vile and abhorrent behaviour in response to a good question - steeped in impotence from a short-fingered vulgarian... #IranWar #TumpAbuseSyndrome

My longer article analysis of the Last 24 hours in the Strait of Hormuz is here. It adds more depth to the thread I posted in reaction tot he news from last night. #StraitOfHormuz #MaritimeLaw #Geopolitics #RiskAnalysis #GlobalTrade #MaritimeSecurity #IranWar #UAE #MalaccaStrait

1/14 Overnight, the Strait of Hormuz crisis escalated significantly. Reports indicate direct exchanges between Iranian forces and US naval assets operating near the Strait, alongside renewed strikes and retaliatory activity across the Gulf region. I have my analysis formed: #IranWar #Hormuz