European weather forecasts get softer in terms of likely gas demand in the coming week. Prices rise 10% today. Yeh, our energy (price) security is cooked. America sneezes, and the Europeans catch a cold, alright.

The potential 'Beast from the East MKII' hiding in long term forecasts has retreated quite a bit (well actually come forward by a week, and geographically retreated at the same time), and now looking warmer long term, so I suspect gas prices are going to lose some of the upwards risk premium now.

Turns out this joke works perfectly well for the Warm Homes Plan too.

Think this one might come round in a bit... If the EU goes for counter trade measures against Trump, which is looking likely at this point(? - from what I read but politicians are a funny bunch), then LNG is the obvious point of weakness to go for in a counter-counter measure.

Energy Flux covers the short squeeze where we saw a shift in short positions cause an over correction of European gas prices (my observation from a month ago, below). And great for the post to pick up on commentators comparing this to 2021, which is absurd. www.energyflux.news/short-squeez...

I can't see this epoch of mad Trump nonsense ending until the Magnificent Seven stock prices pop. Far too emboldened at home with a "strong" economy (all he sees is the S&P500 line tick higher) but as soon as AI hits the valuation/reality nexus, it all stops. Bookmark that.

It was fun while it lasted. Short squeeze ending. Price down 10% today.

It's only taken four months, and given the gas price spike is a combination of weather and a short squeeze probably won't last for long, but my strategy is currently winning! Take that Martin Lewis. When does my ITV show with millions of viewers start?

🚀🚀🚀European gas price now up 11% today, 35% up in a week. 🚀🚀🚀 Those short position build ups...eugh. I wonder if @sebkennedy.bsky.social has any further view on what's been happening on the position front? (since I stole the @seb.energyflux.news.ap.brid.gy graph a month ago)

Lines goes uppity up (below is just today, 5th day of the rally). The hallmarks of heavily represented LNG in the European mix are alive and well.

Gas prices ripping again for a 5th day straight meaning now pushing towards 30% higher than Thursday last week (front month). A change of weather models kicked it off (US, Europe and China all went colder at once) and then Iran flared up, now I think we might be seeing the below start to kick in.

It's amazing how these ideas reverberate around various markets. Which reminds me, I haven't heard anything on blending, or much on hydrogen full stop, for quite some time. I still remember the peak blending business model that I was asked about...

My last comment on AR7 (well, indirectly anyway). The latest Nat Bullard deck has landed. The cost of *everything* is really high. I've picked the below as it's arguably the most universal of bits of electrical infra. You can't procure infrastructure for cheap, that's for sure.

I should never doubt myself (despite doubting myself in the thread and saying I thought it was now on route to a CfD, but let's ignore that).

Found this a very informative read to actually put some flesh on the bones of what solar+rural applications can mean. Interestingly doesn't seem to come up with much negativity despite trying... www.theguardian.com/environment/...

It's time to pause for a moment and spare a thought for David Turver. Just *yesterday* he bravely authored an outstanding IEA report on Net Zero. Less than 24 hours later, his evidence base is falling apart. Some would say he didn't understand CfD auctions, but I couldn't possibly comment.

To the "Ha, gas is £80/MWh don't you know" crowd - no it isn't. It's incredibly variable. Gas prices are ripping for a third day straight (up 20% from just a few days ago) as the US looks likely to destabilise the Middle East (heard that one before). Don't discount the certainty premium on CfDs.

A couple of thoughts on AR7 one on the commentary and one on the results: Commentary: comparing strike price to wholesale is pretty redundant. Wholesale now has enough wind volume cannibalising prices in it to make it essentially artificial (and this will only get more prominent). So stop it.

Just going to check in on the remnants of Energy Twitter to see the reaction to AR7 results...

Just to add a couple of observations to James' write up. The first being a bit of a boring macro one, the 2nd a good old fashioned attack on the author - everyone loves that, so do stick around. (Also check out @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org break down of the 'analysis' as well) Little 🧵...

While you lot are all going to be looking at the new shiny 'normie' stuff when AR7 results are announced, I'll be with the cool kids looking if repowering projects are coming through. You will see us in the corner, wearing the style from the time the assets were built (onions on our belts).

Remembered this while reading an article on the Jerome Powell story this morning. Economics is coming for you Chief, and it always wins.

European gas prices medium to hard ripping today (up ~6% front month). We're really into a normal winter as changing weather models dump upwards or downwards signals into trader's algos. Definitely looks like NBP has a ~70p/th floor to bounce off which is not unexpected bsky.app/profile/tomh...

This table is striking - obviously for solar PV. It tells you the story that the vast majority of delay risk that goes into new build solar PV happens well before anyone builds anything. As soon as your site & grid connection is secured and prepared, the 'infrastructure' element is tiny.

This is so on point for Vitol (a.k.a Moving Sanctioned Oil for Fun Everywhere Corp) that it could create a point of infinite density and suck in the entire world.

At risk of sounding like a broken record; given how many requests are flying about for people to work on DC transactions, I can only posit that the bubble is still in full inflate mode. I am resisting, but I know at some point someone is going to try and talk to me about something called a 'rack'

See a few posts that are like; 'why is the US populace ok with destroying the rules based order?' And I have a secret key to explain it all. As long as you're getting richer, it's all gravy.

I remember when I first discovered this site, I clicked the link on a Monday morning and by the time I thought it was time to turn away, it was Wednesday...a week Wednesday. The mesmeric beauty of wind patterns. It moving onto an app is bad news on that (weather) front.

All the while you have the low lift cost Middle East / Gulf states, tier 1/some tier 2 US shale acreage, and presumably Russia (albeit through back alleys) all hammering production because the game is to monetise now. This will force out high lift cost production which is... Venezuela.

Just a reminder on this. The wave of renewables that is starting to land now (large scale solar PV) and the big offshore wind projects that will begin to energise in 2026 is going to completely change the 'cost' narrative. That's what I would be looking out for this year.

I absolutely love this article, and not for the reasons that you might think. I love it because it is like a time machine. Rip out 'Fuse' and replace with 'Bulb' and we are partying like it is 2014. Some of the my favourite bits highlighted in the next few posts. archive.ph/2025.12.30-0...

Walking the dog seeing stuff like this thinking; I'll defrost my car from the sofa, thanks. I very much doubt the average person knows an EV defrosts itself - there's your next OEM autumn winter adverts sorted.

Comes in where modelled (as you would expect from a forecast made a few hours ago, but still) - I remain thinking it's going to be 2026 peak but happy to admit there is something of a full year to go (and tomorrow is cold again but shouldn't be as cold), so let's see.

Happy GB 2026 peak power demand day! (Maybe) GB *transmission* system demand is currently ~45GW and will probably peak somewhere around 49-50GW according to BMRS. Transmission system is an important distinction as it's not always true demand - National Demand is lower, will peak at ~47GW...

Well, fair to say NBP gas is starting the new year where it left off in '25. Opening about 5% down this morning because...reasons(?). Something something oil geopolitics and warmer temps incoming, but overall a risk management nightmare as everything feels a bit irrational (theme of 2026 I think).

I didn't know this gag was going to hit home this soon in the New Year.

This reminds me of the time I learnt that my tweets had come up in real life BEIS (now DESNZ) policy discussions. Idiots in the below instance and even more so in my example!

How did you spend the Great Wind Deadening? I wrote (by candlelight) and submitted 54 articles for the Telegraph on energy security and blackouts. Hoping they get published soon 🤞

Nan left and has returned back to her house which has oil heating. The traders know. The Nan effect = Economics 101

The 'Nan Effect'.

I want to apologise for the European gas price spike that is sure to show up as markets briefly reopen for a few days. We've had a 90 year old great grandmother here for a few days and the thermostat has gone to places I didn't even know existed.

My local has the best books to help understand what international geopolitics is going to bring in 2026.

You don't need ChatGPT to tell you why Henry Hub came off a touch, rather quickly too, after it rallied up to $5 (currently >20% lower than peak).

I have no grounding in this, apart from lol-ing at how easy-peasy-breezy it is for the AI sector to chuck around GW scale grid connections like they get built out instantly and you don't have to consider the *entire network* at that scale. But these threads are like catnip to me, essential reading.

Looks like Mother Nature has decided a short period of low temperatures and low wind speeds is going to happen over the short period when it is also very low demand (spread across Xmas and the Xmas-New Year gap). Someone at NESO has been writing to Father Christmas.

Checking in on this prediction. FYI - Norway's power exports have been falling *for a year* (considering both North Sea Link i.e. England and total) - that started before the article was published! More wind capacity in Northern Europe is doing that.

European gas traders getting some pricing support now as late Dec/early Jan temps outlook has come to the rescue. Front month bouncing off the 70p/th floor after the late November carnage.

Not that it was the defining point, probably getting people there was No1, but the power and gas grid connections in place were very beneficial (brick works!) This was knocking around tech DD advisors for ages before it got anywhere near this point. Universal studios: www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Have spent the last few days looking in depth into a business model in this area. Utilisation challenges and dealing with unmetered supply dynamics (i.e. lamp posts) means I am still lol-ing at the thought that people think it is a viable sector that isn't just farming grants, than disappearing.

This is right in that it is generally how you 'break the link' and it is indeed on route to happening in the UK. However, scarcity rent doesn't completely disappear, it does lessen but also becomes heavily concentrated (time wise). Future market design needs to consider that.