NEW first online and open access article‼️ It analyses the impact of meaningful ideological choices (or the lack thereof) on demographic-based electoral divisions in Latin America. Check it out! By Matthew Singer journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Peru became the world leader in recall referendums. What drove it—and what did it do to democracy? Beyond innovation: power games! www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Bolsonaro & Trump have been political doppelgängers, including parallel attempts to overturn an election through a coup. So it’s remarkable to see contrasting headlines today: in one case, the continuation of autocratic populism; in the other, the start of a long prison sentence.

Don't do coups, kids. apnews.com/article/braz...

Two weeks from now:

My colleague, Dr. Vahid Abedini, was illegally detained by ICE on Saturday. He is currently being held without a court date in sight, despite being in the country legally. Please spread the word! We must ensure his due process rights are upheld. www.oudaily.com/news/ou-prof...

NEW First online article 🔔 #openaccess How does the populist radical right use local office to pursue national political ambitions? #Peru #Populism #politicalambition @eljorobado.bsky.social @zsofiabocskay.bsky.social @sagepub.com journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

“Moraes said Bolsonaro’s electronic ankle monitor had been tampered with at 12.08am on Saturday. That suggested “the convict had planned to break the ankle monitor in order to ensure the success of his escape, aided by the confusion caused by the protest”

Good article on Trump's Latin America policies. But I do hope historians don't adopt the "Donroe Doctrine" name. (And to be pedantic, it's more akin to the Roosevelt Corollary than the original Monroe doctrine.)

Not sure what stage of nativism we've reached when they're trying to make us scared of gauchos and llaneros crossing the border with their 🐄.

My only Chile prediction: don’t be surprised to be surprised. By law, there have been no polls for 15 days. Voting is compulsory, drawing in more swing voters. And the right is divided across 3 major candidates - easy to imagine voters switching their choice between these three in the past 2 weeks.

Chile’s election is this Sunday. Most voters see crime and migration as the two top problems. Crime (some of it linked to Tren de Aragua) has risen – though homicides have been trending down. And immigrants now make up 10% of Chile’s population. 🧵 www.reuters.com/world/americ...

As difficult as it would be, I can see a chance of successfully doing a regime change in 🇻🇪. But not by Trump’s administration of incompetents - there’s just zero chance they wouldn’t fuck it up so bad it would make de-Baathification look like masterstroke. www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

Today I learned the exact playlist the U.S. military blasted at the Vatican embassy in Panama to get Noriega to surrender. 🎸

“An iron fist! That’s what we need! Like a Bukele!”: the ultra-conservative politician José Antonio Kast closes in on the presidency in Chile with a Trumpian pitch on crime & immigration www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...

Great to see our paper in Scientific Data. Thanks to cooperation with @michael-weiss.bsky.social, we have assembled a dataset (over 30k obs.) covering all Latin American legislators since the 1980s. This will help comparative analyses of gender, turnover, careers... www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Honduras Election Scenarios: Scenario A: Contested Election Scenario B: Contested Election boz.substack.com/p/honduras-e...

I'm thrilled that my book, Unity through Particularism: How Electoral Reforms Influence Parties and Legislative Behavior, is now available for pre-order through CUP and Amazon! Let me know if you'd like an electronic copy for your class, and I'll send it to you! www.cambridge.org/us/universit...

Virginia: It looks to me like Democrats are going to flip about 13 Republican seats in the 100-seat House of Delegates. (Districts #22, 30, 41, 57, 64, 66, 69, 71, 73, 75, 82, 86, 89). This would expand their seat share from 51 to 64. It's a blue wave. 🌊

Sic Semper Tyrannis

In Virginia (my home state), the resistance vote is strong. See the margin shifts from the 2021 to 2025 gubernatorial race (with 40% of votes in), from AP. Congrats to @abigailspanberger.com on the landslide!

NEW #onlinefirst article in JPLA! ‼️ The study by Falçao, Vieira Rodrigues & Abrucio explores electoral #accountability in #federative systems during crises, with a focus on the #COVID-19 pandemic in #Brazil. It’s #openaccess. Check it out ‼️ journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

You know you're about to read a good article when the title comes from a line in The Wire. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

The @nytimes.com editorial board makes a clear and compelling case that U.S. democracy is being dismantled. We need much more of this kind of reporting from major media outlets. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

An admonishment ought to do it

Here's what Argentina's Chamber of Deputies will look like after yesterday's election. LLA+PRO will have almost 42% of seats (36% for LLA alone). Still a minority, but a much stronger position for Milei. Now he needs to deliver economic growth, or the🦁quickly becomes a lame🦆.

"Kamala Harris Suggests She Is Considering Another Presidential Run." www.nytimes.com/2025/10/25/u...

This is who is paying for the destruction of the White House East Wing, per @wsj.com Altria Group Inc. Amazon Apple Inc. Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp. Caterpillar Inc. Coinbase Global Comcast Corp. Hard Rock International Google HP Inc. Lockheed Martin Corp. Meta Platforms Inc. 1/3

Cover photo for the 2nd edition of How Democracies Die just dropped.

Rodrigo Paz has won the presidential runoff in Bolivia.

🇧🇴 It's runoff day in Bolivia. AP has a preview. 👇 (I predict a win for the conservative candidate who went to college in the U.S.) apnews.com/article/boli...

“The accumulation of all powers, legislative, executive, and judiciary, in the same hands, whether of one, a few, or many, and whether hereditary, self-appointed, or elective, may justly be pronounced the very definition of tyranny.” -James Madison, Federalist #47

It took a while, but some folks are finding their spine. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/17/u...

I'm re-reading some history of El Salvador and realized all of these books were published from 1994-1997. It’s hard to think of another short period when so many good monographs were produced on a country (except Nicaragua 1980s-early 1990s).

Argentina edition of Libertarian bible

This is way down the list of news stories today, but Peru's Congress removed President Boluarte last night on a 124-0 vote. Head of Congress is now president. Peru's executive-legislative relations continue to be some of the strangest in the world. apnews.com/article/peru...

Every day is January 6th now.

Why did Lima's mayor organize a memorial event for Charlie Kirk? To get something from the Trump administration, of course! And how did the people bused to the event feel about Kirk? "Who’s Charlie Kirk?" asked one. @jacknicas.bsky.social reports. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/08/w...

Wrote a short piece on the electoral collapse of the MAS in Bolivia and what it may mean for democracy and for the party. Check it out!

A functioning democracy would be beginning impeachment proceedings this afternoon.

Interview line of the week:

This is a fantastic piece from the great George Packer. Recommended reading 👇

Factoid of the week: "Of the I.M.F.’s roughly $164 billion in support outstanding to countries around the world, Argentina accounts for about 35 percent." Holy Perón! www.nytimes.com/2025/09/22/u...

Resistance is NOT futile.

In Nicaragua, longtime regime loyalists have been purged, shoring up Rosario Murillo’s power, likely to help her fully take over if her husband, longtime President Daniel Ortega, resigns or dies. I spoke with Frances Robles from the @nytimes.com about the crackdown www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/w...

1/ Which institutional determinants affect legislative turnover in Latin America? Using electoral data since 1985, @karelkouba.bsky.social and myself tackle this question #OpenAccess in the newest issue of Latin American Politics and Society. 👉 doi.org/10.1017/lap....

🧵I’ve been studying democratic backsliding for some years now, and I think the U.S. has passed a dangerous threshold this week. I’m worried we’re quickly approaching a point of no return. Here’s a long 🧵with lots of links on how we got here and where we might be headed.

In 2018, revelations of family separation caused an uproar and massive media coverage. In 2025 it barely makes the news (this story today from WaPo is far down their homepage). Another sign of our moral collapse in the Trump era. www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/...

With the Bolsonaro conviction, Brazil remains as polarized as ever, and the undemocratic far right is undiminished. Prepare for Bolsonarismo 2.0, report @pessoagabi.bsky.social and @eleonorehughes.bsky.social apnews.com/article/braz...