StatCan released natural resource value-added data today for 2025 Q2. Energy accounts for 64% of the total, minerals and mining for 27%, forestry for 5% and hunting, fishing and water for the rest. All four components dropped in volume terms in the quarter, though energy is trending up. #cdnecon

SEPH data for July show again how the Cdn economy has been weakening this year. Although total labour compensation rose 3.5% over the last 12 months, total hours worked fell 0.3%. Real average hourly earnings rose a still-robust 1%, continuing to 'catch up' as is typical when the economy turns down.

You can easily review the details of StatCan's payroll employment and earnings release for July 2025, in an historical time series context, in my SEPH browser here: philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/SEPHbrowser/

Canadian non-permanent resident estimated inflows and outflows. #cdnecon

Data released by StatCan today indicate that seasonally adjusted population growth in 2025 Q2 was the lowest it has been in a long time. There was a 2nd consecutive quarter of substantial decline in the non-permanent resident population, reflecting government policies aimed at achieving that.

@dbcurren.bsky.social @econreporter.bsky.social @hollsworld.bsky.social @thisisyee.bsky.social @pwamenear.bsky.social @fosfene.bsky.social www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/fact_checkin...

I saw Mark Carney on TV today saying, among other things, that Canada has contributed more in per capita terms to Ukraine than any other country. This really surprised me and it delights me if true. Does anyone know a data source confirming this?

Here is a brief statistical picture of our gradually weakening labour market. #cdnecon

Real Canadian average hourly earnings continued to grow on a 12-month basis in August, according to the LFS. #cndecon

Labour compensation is a key driver of consumer expenditure and GDP. Its monthly growth has been decreasing gradually over the past two years, due not so much to slower growth in average hourly earnings, but rather to weaker employment and declines in average weekly hours worked. #cdnecon

Here is the Canadian government's target for dwelling unit creation with some historical context. #cdnecon

3-month food price inflation exceeded 5% at annual rates from Jan 2022 to Jun 2023 before dropping to much lower rates until Feb 2025. It was even substantially negative between Dec 2024 and Feb 2025. But it soared to double-digit rates between Mar and May before falling to 4-5% recently. #cdnecon

StatCAn reported today that manufacturing sales volume increased 1.6% in July, although it was down 3.4% compared to July 2024. On that 12-month-change basis, non-durable goods sales were down 6.2% and durable goods were down 0.8%. Of course there was considerable variation by sub-sector. #cdnecon

Statistics Canada reported this morning that new motor vehicle sales, seasonally adjusted, increased again (albeit modestly) in July, both in units and in dollar terms. Apparently consumer demand has not fallen off a cliff so far this year. #cndecon

Here's an update to my set of 100 quarterly national accounts indicators, including the labour productivity data released today. #cdnecon www.philipsmith.ca/Canadian_nat...

Based on this press release from the Ontario government, it appears significant progress has been made in improving interprovincial labour mobility, though I am suspicious the progress is a lot less than the press release tries to make it sound. news.ontario.ca/en/release/1...

In Canada, the level of undistributed corporation profits, relative to GDP, has been declining since mid-2022 and was at an historically very low level as of the second quarter 2025. This is not a great time to look toward the corporate sector to finance major nation-building projects. #cdnecon

There was a small uptick in capital spending in the oil and gas extraction industry in the second quarter. #cdnecon

The value of Canada's non-financial assets was $17.3 trillion in the first quarter of 2025. The value has become more volatile in recent years due to fluctuating land and natural resource prices. Land underlying dwellings currently accounts for 27.5% and the dwellings themselves 25.1% of the total.

Canadian consumer price inflation, as measured for purposes of the national accounts, fell sharply between June 2022 and June 2023 and has continued to trend down, albeit more slowly, thereafter. On a year-over-year basis it was just 1.8% in June, with goods prices up 0.4% and services prices 2.9%.

Canadian consumers reduced their monthly expenditures in the U.S. by $8 billion (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) between December 2024 and June 2025, and we all know the reasons why. #cdnecon

Margaret Atwood predicted the rise of the alt right and its laser focus on reproductive choice. She is eerily able to understand white male supremacy taken to its logical and heartless conclusion. Scary stuff on the horizon

Canada's average effective tariff rate (tariff revenues collected divided by the value of merchandise imports) rose sharply in the second quarter, reflecting the retaliatory tariffs in effect at that time.

My Canadian national accounts browser is now up-to-date with the 2025 Q2 statistics for the income and expenditure accounts, the balance of payments accounts and the real GDP by industry accounts. #cdnecon philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/Flexible-tab...

Here's my multi-chart summary of Canada's 2025 Q2 national accounts. #cdnecon

"Warnings From Weimar. Why Bargaining With Authoritarians Fails." Compelling piece by Daniel Ziblatt in Foreign Affairs. www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released an update to the 2025 Q2 US national accounts. You can review the release in my browser. philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/NatAcctsUSA/

StatCan reported this morning that "Canada's current account deficit (on a seasonally adjusted basis) widened by $19.8 billion in the second quarter to reach an unprecedented $21.2 billion." Weaker exports was the biggest factor. The details are in these charts. #cdnecon

3 Experts on What Trump Is Doing to the Economy (NYT): Mankiw: "It is impossible to know when investors will start looking at the United States like a large version of Greece or Argentina. But when it happens, it could well be very ugly." www.nytimes.com/2025/08/21/o...

Economics professor Justin Wolfers, at the University of Michigan, has really become the darling of MSNBC and CNN this year because of his enlightening, simple and often hilarious explanations of the economic effects of the craziest Trump policies.

Based on railway carloadings, released for June by StatCan today, the Canadian economy seems rather flat in the east recently, while it is seeing a modest upturn in the west. Forestry products are the major declining product group in both halves of the country. #cdnecon

Statistics Canada reported this morning that new house prices continued to decrease in July, although by only 0.1%. The structure component fell 0.2% while the land component rose 0.2%. #cdnecon

Canada's CPI for July came out today. News outlets reported a slight decrease in the inflation rate, citing the 12-month % change. If one focuses instead on the 3-month % change, seasonally adjusted and expressed at annual rates, there was a substantial increase from 0.7% in June to 2.2% in July.

Here are 100 Canadian macroeconomic indicator charts, up-to-date as of August 18, 2025. #cdnecon www.philipsmith.ca/Canadian_mac...

Those European leaders visiting Trump at the White House today should each say they would vigorously nominate him for the Nobel Prize if he provides Ukraine with the weapons needed to drive Putin out, and that they would happily pay for these weapons. That might do the trick.

The Humanoid Robot Games in Beijing, featuring running, kickboxing and soccer, highlighted advancements — and limitations — in robotics. nyti.ms/3Jo8WOZ

Putin smirking serenely while Trump whines about the “Russia, Russia, Russia hoax”

Some further analysis on the state of new motor vehicle sales at mid-year: Viewed as a percentage of the existing stock, and in volume rather than dollar terms, sales have flattened out or perhaps even started a slight decline in 2025. #cdnecon

Canadian new motor vehicle sales, in units, have continued their strong upward trend in the first half of 2025, Statistics Canada reported today. #cdnecon

The monthly count of Canadian corporate insolvencies seemed to be heading for real trouble up to its peak in January 2024, but fortunately it has been declining since then. Hard to say where it will go in the next 12 months given the murky and troubling outlook for the economy at present. #cdnecon

Building permits statistics released by Statistics Canada today indicate the number of new dwelling units created in Canada declined in the spring months after having surged in the December-to-March period. Still lots of work for governments to do to bend the curve back up where we need it to go.

For those interested, my LFS browser is up-to-date with today's Statistics Canada release of the LFS data for July 2025. philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/LFStables/

Distributions of household disposable income in 2023 by quintile: US: 6.0%, 10.5%, 14.4%, 19.7%, 49.4% CA: 6.1%, 12.4%, 16.4%, 23.0%, 42.1% Sources: BEA (Aug 7, 2025) and STC table 36-10-0587-01. (Excludes social transfers in kind such as health, education.)

Construction always plays a big role in recessions. In that light it is curious that Canadian residential construction activity has been declining so much since mid 2021 without a recession occurring. There are previous cases in history, but never with such big cumulative declines. #cdnecon

Ignoring the pre-Trump-tariffs period in early 2025 when Canadian manufactured goods exports and imports surged in anticipation, exports to US were only slightly below the 2023-2024 average level in the second quarter. #cdnecon

Statistics Canada data for international trade in June indicate exports to the US edged up slightly while remaining below the pre-Trump-tariffs level. The CA-US trade balance remained positive, but well below the pre-Trump-tariffs level as well, which seems to be one of the US objectives. #cdnecon

"Earning a Ph.D. in economics has long been a reliable path to affluence and prestige. Not anymore." www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/b...

The May 2025 GDP stats for Canada show the economy growing 1.2% over the last 12 months, the lowest such rate in 14 months. The content and media sector continues to decline as does the motor vehicle manufacturing industry, engineering construction, rail transport and the postal service. #cdnecon

No other way to slice it: this is incredibly fucked up.

A significant study released by Statistics Canada this morning casts new and surprising light on real per capita regional income disparities in Canada. After PPP adjustment, Ontario and BC ranked lower in 2021 while the poorer regions correspondingly higher. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quo...