Canada's imports rose 0.4% in volume terms in May while our exports decreased -0.1%, StatCan reported today. In current dollar terms however, exports increased 0.9% while imports edged down 0.2%, as the terms of trade moved in Canada's favour. #cdnecon

The decline in Canada's GDP per capita explained. #cdnecon

Canada's real GDP remains essentially on the same trend line seen from Jan 2010 to Feb 2020, although it had appeared to be well below that line until the national accounts revisions that were done last year. #cdnecon

Real growth in the computer systems design and related services industry ground to a halt three years ago and has remained flat since. It grew at an 8.7% compound average annual rate from 1997 until the standstill. This may be both caused by, and a cause of the Cdn productivity slowdown. #cdnecon

Those interested in the arcane topic of national accounts revisions might find this app useful: philipsmith.ca/revisions

Overall real GDP strengthened in April but in federal public administration, estimated net output was down substantially as the Carney government cut back on employment. (In the absence of market values for government output the estimates mostly follow employment trends.) #cdnecon

In the past LFS and SEPH told a similar employment story, after a few reconciliation adjustments were made (see chart footnote). But the two survey pictures have diverged since around the start of 2023. This of course is tied to the policy-induced swings in population. #cdnecon

Real fixed-weight average hourly earnings from SEPH dropped substantially in April. It was the first significant decrease since December 2023. #cdnecon

StatCan reported LP by prov today and they persistent in including public sector "productivity" as part of the total. But those numbers are misleading as I have argued previously. For 2025: all ind 0.7%, education 2.6%, health care 3.0%, public admin 1.3%. philip635.substack.com/p/measuring-...

StatCan today released details for its method to estimate the trend-cycle component of a time series. I have incorporated their method in the 13-MA transformation in my macroindicators app. Click the "About" button for explanation. philipsmith.ca/macroindicat...

Data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis today indicate that real personal disposable income per capita continued to decrease on a YoY basis in May. #us_economy

My SEPH browser, updated for the April 2026 reference month, can be found here: philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/SEPHbrowser/ In brief, employment edged up 0.1% vs. March (0.7% YoY) while total hours worked rose 0.7% (1.3% YoY). Employers needing more labour are currently reluctant to hire more workers.

Why have Canadian grocery prices risen rapidly so far in the 2020s decade? A major factor appears to be the continuing rise of food store margins, totalling about 45% so far according to StatCan. #cdnecon

NPR inflows are down since 2023 Q3, outflows are up since 2024 Q2 (though down on a quarterly basis in 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1). #cdnecon

The number of non-permanent residents in the country has fallen from a peak of 3,149,131 in 2024 Q3 to 2,558,562 at the end of 2026 Q1. #cdnecon

The Canadian population continued to decrease in the first quarter. StatCan said today. Further decreases in the number of non-permanent residents were the driving factor. #cdnecon

Food prices have risen a lot faster than 'consumer prices in general' for the last few years. Yet the CPI basket weight for food purchased in stores remains low vs previous years. Looks like a powerful substitution effect is in evidence. #cdnecon

If you magnify this long and skinny table you'll see the highest estimated job vacancy rates are in Northern BC and Yukon (4.4-5.3%) and Yorkton-Melville, SK (4.7%). #cdnecon

StatCan released 1st quarter job vacancy rates by industry today. Aside from a few small upticks, the overall picture is one of low and stable rates. #cdnecon

A Trump push to cut 'statistical noise' could mean less data from the Census Bureau: www.npr.org/2026/06/12/n... This makes no sense as far as I can see.

Among the many interesting facts emerging from StatCan's release of its 'Infrastructure Economic Account' for 2025 today is the high and rising average age of Canada's stock of buses. #cdnecon

Since mid-2009, 'truck' sales have grown rapidly while 'car' sales have declined. The definition of 'trucks' includes minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses. SUVs have become so popular these days. #cndecon

Sometimes life seems a bit absurd, methinks, as I watch the Governor of the Bank of Canada on TV explaining to everyone why he did nothing whatsoever today, a decision that hundreds of Bank economists had laboured many hours over and is exactly what almost all economists expected him to do.

Yesterday's international trade data for April, from StatCan, show a 30% decline in the volume of aluminum and a 50% drop in iron and steel exports over the last year and a half, although the total volume of exports has been rising. #cdnecon

65 years ago, incorporated and unincorporated (typically small) business net incomes each accounted for about 12% of Canada's GDP. Today corporations account about 14% and small businesses less than 10%. This may be an important factor in Canada's weak productivity performance of late. #cdnecon

The number of non-permanent residents in Canada has been coming down for the last five quarters, this despite a continued rise in the number of asylum claimants. #cdnecon

We had recessions in 2008-09 and again in 2020 and they can be clearly seen in the chart. But you have to squint a lot to spot one in 2025-26. Anyway, real GDP advanced 0.4% in April, according to StatCan's advance estimate, and that's quite robust growth. #cdnecon

Slowing population growth eventually brings declining labour force and employment, but labour market trends may be turning around in May. #cdnecon

Employment growth of 0.4% in May, of which 0.9% full-time and -1.7% part-time. One month does not make a strong economy, but this is quite positive. philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/LFStables/

Here's the rather dismal picture for Canadian labour productivity in manufacturing, from philipsmith.ca/labour_productivity. #cdnecon

StatCan released the labour productivity numbers for 2026 Q1 today, so it's a good time to try out my philipsmith.ca/labour_productivity dashboard.

Capital expenditures on oil and gas extraction in Canada had been slowly trending back up for a few years, after collapsing with the fall in world energy prices in 2015. But they have flattened out over the last year or so reflecting major uncertainties about the world economy. #cdnecon

Small business and other unincorporated business income dropped 2% in the first quarter, the largest percentage decrease in 50 years (aside from the COVID period). US tariff policy, a weak housing market and soft domestic demand are having a big impact. #cdnecon

Table viewers for Canada and the US plus dashboards focussed on various topics: philipsmith.ca/dashboards/

Canada's real GDP, released for the 1st quarter of 2026 by StatCan today, was 0.1% lower than in the 1st quarter of 2025. On that same basis, exports were down -4.1% and business investment -1.6%. For details see philipsmith.ca/tabler, table 36100104. #cdnecon

BEA estimates of disposable personal income show a 5.4% rise in the first quarter and a 3.8% increase on a year-over-year basis. The US economy looks fairly healthy based on this indicator. #economy #economics #money

Canada's international current account balance was -$7.2 billion in the first quarter, StatCan reported today. Goods trade accounted for the deficit and services trade had a small surplus. #cdnecon

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis real GDP second estimate for 2026 Q1 came in at 1.6% (annual rates). It was well up from the weak 2025 Q4 performance but still considered slow by recent US growth standards. #USecon

Canada's job vacancy rate was steady at 2.8% of payroll employment in March, StatCan reported today. #cdnecon

After spiking to an 11% 3-month annualized rate of increase in January, the fixed-weight index of Canadian average hourly earnings increased at a 6% rate in February and just a 1% rate in March, StatCan reported today. #cdnecon

Dashboards! philipsmith.ca/dashboards/

Operating profits in the Canadian corporate sector were up 2.0% in 2026 Q1, StatCan reported this morning. As usual it was a mixed picture across industries. See philipsmith.ca/tabler, table 33-10-0226-01 for details. #cdnecon

It's always interesting to see our collective governments' shifting priorities through the lens of the shares of their spending in different functional categories. This big table does that. Too big a topic for one post, but the COVID shift and the pace of return to 'normal' thereafter is revealing.

The Bank of Canada uses its core CPI measures to 'look through' the volatility of some prices. It aims for 2% inflation as a medium term goal. And it has done a pretty good job of that, though both of its core measures have risen a few % points less than the all-items CPI over the last 37 years.

I have updated my CPI dashboard to include relative prices as well as price levels. For example, here's what the price relative for food looks like. Relative price changes reflect both demand and supply forces. Give it a try at philipsmith.ca/CPI/cpi.html #cdnecon

Smokers are one segment of the Canadian public that has reason to be happy about some recent relative price changes. #cdnecon