Statistics Canada reported today that SEPH employment decreased slightly in November. SEPH has been showing a lot less employment growth for the last three years than LFS, probably due to the effect of the swings in the non-permanent resident population within LFS methodology. #cdnecon

The strength of Canada's economy is highly dependent on world commodity prices. Entering 2026 it continues to benefit from high prices of metals and minerals and relatively good prices for agricultural and fish products, but energy and forestry prices are somewhat in the doldrums. #cdnecon

2025 was a year of continued surging in the labour force population and rapid growth in employment, according to Canada's LFS. Nevertheless unemployment rose as the labour force also expanded a lot. SEPH, though not yet complete for the full year, showed a weaker employment picture. #cdnecon

I released a paper on substack this morning casting the fiscal numbers from Canada's November 4 budget in a long-term historical context. #cdnecon philip635.substack.com/p/government...

1/2 The labour income share of gross domestic income remained higher in the US than in Canada in 2025 Q3, although the US share has been trending down for decades and the gap is narrowing. The US business income share is near its all-time high, well above Canada's.

With yesterday's murder by ICE in Minnesota, the ICE masks and chemical weapons, their refusal to allow pictures of their activities and the ICE leader telling lies about the murder and refusing to allow an honest inquiry, ICE must now be regarded as the US Gestapo. The full nazification of America.

The relative price of food in Canada has been trending up since early 2009. It took a large leap in the second half of 2022, stabilized and then rose further in 2025. But it has dropped before and could do so again in 2026 if the Canadian dollar strengthens and the weather is favourable. #cdnecon

Part of the annual Globe and Mail chart package was released online today. I submitted a chart on the "affordability" issue and you can see it at the following link if you are interested. www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/10a5920...

If you are interested in this kind of thing, I invite you to read my latest substack release on seasonality in Canada's CPI. philip635.substack.com/p/the-import...

The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment in the US reached another low point in December as households held expectations of higher inflation and rising unemployment in 2026. The index was 33% below its December 2024 level. #usecon

This is wise. From The Functionary, by Kathryn May at 44615331.hs-sites.com/downsizing

For those interested, my national accounts browser is now up-to-date with the revisions and latest quarterly data. #cdnecon philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/Flexible-tab...

Canadian new housing prices have been on a slow declining trend since the summer of 2022, based on Statistics Canada's New Housing Price Index. They were unchanged from the previous month in November. #cdnecon

Employment has not changed much this year, according to the payroll survey. #cdnecon philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/SEPHbrowser/

With the 3rd quarter population decrease factored in plus the national accounts upward revisions to GDP announced 2-3 weeks ago, the picture looks a bit brighter for the real-GDP-per-capita ratio many have been concerned about. The ratio has been trending up again since the end of 2023. #cdnecon

This morning Statistics Canada reported an unprecedented -0.2% decrease in Canada's population in the third quarter of 2025. The drop was 76,068 people, leaving the population standing at 41,575,585 on October 1, 2025. #cdnecon

Checking in with the Sahm indicator. It says the recession scare in Canada is over for the time being. #cdnecon

StatCan data for Oct indicate urban transit passenger trips have been edging down marginally though associated own-source revenues have been trending up due to fare increases. Trips remain below the pre-pandemic level in most parts of Canada except the Atlantic region, perhaps due to work-from-home.

On Dec. 12, Statistics Canada released a preliminary estimate of the national poverty rate in 2024. It was 10.9%, the same as in 2023. The Canada Child Benefit introduced by Parliament in 2016 brought the rate down considerably. The pandemic and weak growth thereafter brought it back up. #cdnecon

Statistics Canada released October data for new motor vehicle sales today and there was little change from the pattern in the previous five months. #cdnecon

This chart shows how the distribution of price changes across 184 unique (unweighted) CPI product categories has evolved since 2021. The inflation surge is evident between late 2021 and Jan 2024, as is a smaller over-correction relative to the 2% target until the spring of 2025. #cdnecon

LFS and SEPH are very different surveys as explained in the chart footnote. But adjusting for the differences shows that LFS has been presenting a much more robust picture for employment since the pandemic. We have no SEPH data yet beyond Sept, but the LFS surge in Nov should be received cautiously.

Comparing LFS employment in 2025 with 2022-2024 linear trends shows a substantial growth slowdown in full-time work for people aged 25 and over. Part-time jobs and youth employment remain on trend. The private sector slowing began in mid 2024 and in the public sector it started more recently.

Between 2021 and 2024 real final domestic demand grew at a 2.4% compound annual rate and real final total demand rose at a 2.8% rate. Through three quarters in 2025 the former has grown at a 0.9% rate and the latter at a -1.1% rate. Total aggregate demand is falling and that's not good. #cdnecon

Total employment compensation, making up well over half of GDP, was up 4.8% in the twelve months to November 2025 according to today's LFS release. The increase reflected a 3.6% rise in average hourly earnings, a 1.7% advance in employment and a -0.6% decrease in average hours worked per employee.

Youth unemployment in Canada, after rising steadily for many months, was down 6.5% on a 12-month change basis in November. LFS details in my browser at: philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/LFStables/

Interest rates are inching downward as 2026 nears its end. #cdnecon

With much concern about food affordability of late, the CPI recorded a 12-month increase of 3.4% in October. The product groups with the biggest increases were coffee/tea (22%), beef (16.8%), nuts/seeds (9.3%), infant formula (5.9%) and sugar/confectionary (5.4%).

Capital expenditures in Canada's oil and gas extraction industry have been essentially unchanged for the last two quarters, Statistics Canada reported today. #cdnecon

Comparing total hours worked with real GDP since the pandemic, the relationship looks quite similar regardless of whether the LFS or SEPH hours measure is used. Hours are under trend this year, possibly because the GDP weakness in tariffed industries has relatively high hours-output elasticity.

For those interested in the picky details of today's Canadian national accounts release for the 3rd quarter, here is a collection of 100 charts for key time series. Expand the graphic below or for perhaps easier viewing go to this URL: www.philipsmith.ca/Canadian_nat...

The federal government has been gradually and steadily withdrawing from direct participation in Canadian R&D spending for the last half century. Perhaps it could help raise productivity growth by reversing this trend. #cdnecon

Canada's 3rd quarter national accounts are scheduled for release tomorrow. The US 3rd quarter national accounts first estimates are scheduled for a late release, Dec 23, due to the government shutdown. Here are the Q2 US estimates, for comparison purposes. philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/NatAcctsUSA/

Once a year StatCan classifies all government spending into functional categories, thereby revealing how the broad collective priorities of the governments are evolving. It's interesting how social protection and health always fluctuate in opposite directions. #cdnecon

September employment dropped -0.3% according to SEPH, although employment for both hourly-rated and salaried workers each rose 0.3%. The decline was accounted for by employees receiving commissions, piece rates, mileage allowances or working owners. #cdnecon philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/SEPHbrowser/

Canada's current account deficit was reduced by more than half in the 3rd quarter as the trade deficit narrowed. #cdnecon

Total railway carloadings in the west fell 6.2% between May and September this year and further declines seem likely given the US tariffs. The wood products category has continued to plunge due to several factors including steep US tariffs. Manufactured products have been flat since mid 2023.

Here's an interesting categorization and analysis of supply shocks, from Brookings. It focuses on 115 instances relating to global supply chains, productivity issues, pandemics, commodity prices, natural disasters, labour supply, critical inputs & import prices. www.brookings.edu/wp-content/u...

Corporate profits before taxes in Canada hit a new peak in the 3rd quarter, rising 7.6% from the 2nd quarter, StatCan reported yesterday. The previous pre-tax peak was in 2022 Q2. Telecomm profits jumped an extraordinary $10.4 billion but these were mostly one-time non-operational gains. #cdnecon

I knew NFL teams were expensive to buy, but had no idea the 32 teams together added a hefty US$227 billion to the US balance sheet.

I invite you to read my new (and free) Substack paper on the difficulties involved in measuring government productivity. philip635.substack.com/p/measuring-...

There are several Canadian housing price indicators available. Here is StatCan's, which is based on a survey of construction companies. It shows big and continuing declines since March 2022 in the CPI-adjusted prices of both land and the houses themselves. But there are wide geographical variations.

As Canada works to restructure its international trade toward countries other than the US, its effort is aided by the falling broadly-defined average effective currency exchange rate vis-à-vis those countries (blue line). However rates remain well above where they were at the turn of the century.

Today StatCan reported that "Canada's natural resource wealth—the dollar value of selected natural resource reserves—decreased by 10% from $1,520 billion in 2023 to $1,362 billion in 2024." The unavoidable vulnerability of Canada's resource economy to changing world commodity prices explains this.

Here are the implicit overall capital depreciation rates by industry. I suspect the movement in these rates through time is more a reflection of the changing composition of investment than of changes in the durability of specific capital assets. #cdnecon

While investment has been stagnant, the capital stock has continued to grow, albeit at a slower rate than prior to 2015. This appears to be because the weakness in investment has been disproportionately in the machinery and equipment category, which has a higher average depreciation rate. #cdnecon

Canada's productivity growth has flatlined and it's clear we need more investment. StatCan released investment and capital stock data by industry this week for 2024. Total investment has shown no net growth since 2014, when world energy prices plunged. Many industries account for this. #cdnecon

The narcissist. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/u...