Among FBS Head coaches with 15+ games (that have spreads/point totals), this is how many points they are favored/not favored pregame, and their avg point differential above/below that pregame expectation. Curt Cignetti is on a whole other level

Havent shared my consensus power ratings in a while, so here they are heading into week 10. The B1G holds the top three spots, Ohio State + Indiana are in the top tier (standard deviations) while Oregon is like decimal points off that line

Everyones favorite: Completion Pct Over Expectation by pass depth for some of the top QBs expected in the 2026 NFL Draft class

Expected points added per play divided up by above 50th percentile defense vs. below. Basically bottom right = better against worse defenses, top left better against better defenses

Thought maybe Carson Beck would be dethroned in the QB point rating system, but he narrowly holds onto the top spot. Top 3 highest climbers this season: Gunner Stockton, Jayden Maiava, and the newest in the top 30: Julian Sayin!

Highest Comp Pct Over Expectation in the CFB Playoff era. We still have a pretty small sample size for some of the active players on this list, but for now: Julian Sayin has been every bit of the ultra accurate QB we thought he would be

Updated top 30 QBs in the FBS (Career number not just this year) based on my point rating system. Jayden Maiava and Demond Williams have climbed the most this season. Ty Simpson sitting just outside the top 30 (32). Drew Allar has fallen out of the top 30

Looking at offensive conversion rate paired with the average down they achieve these 1st down conversions (excluding plays in the red zone). I am of the philosophy that the best offenses convert at a high rate and on earlier downs. Its too hard to live and die by 3rd down

Have seen some NFL posts about QB sacks + scrambles, wanted to look at it on the college level (although its all rushes and not just scrambles sadly). QBs to the right of the line have added more as a rusher than they have lost taking sacks

Love looking at expected points before the snap vs. average distance as you also get things like field position + time left in EP. Missouri, Indiana and Utah among the best 3rd down offenses so far this season

Top 30 FBS QBs (Career rating) heading into week 7 this week. Darian Mensah and Jayden Maiava keep moving up, dont forget about CJ Bailey making his climb!

"Passing" Down frequency & how efficient QBs have been on those passing downs. CJ Bailey, Ty Simpson, Josh Hoover have been ballin on a bigger sample of passing downs for the P4, Brown & Finley for Georgia State in the G5

Now that we are a couple games in, its time to see what the Fun Index thinks of your team (Fun Index = composite of metrics i find fun like QB play, explosiveness on offense, generating turnovers on defense etc.). Top teams having fun: USC, Indiana and Florida State

New article! This week I chose to highlight how impressive CJ Carr looked against Arkansas. Come check it out! cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-cj-car...

Home and Away Point differential over expectation (expectation being betting lines) since the 2022 season. Really just wanted to see Oregon in the Dan Lanning era, not as bad of a diff home vs. away than I originally thought.

Fresh coat of paint and, more importantly, I have updated my QB spider chart app to include the 2025 season as it stands today. Still gotta work on QB comps from previous years but for now if you want 2025 data it is there! cfbnumbers.shinyapps.io/spiderapp/

New weekly recap in your inboxes!! A QB has potentially emerged in a murky 2026 QB class: cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-fernan...

Highest PFF Big Time Throw rate so far this season: 1. Tommy Castellanos (FSU) - 12.8% 2. Will Hammond (TTU) - 10.0% 3. Colton Joseph (ODU) - 9.9% 4. Brendan Sorsby (Cincy) - 9.1%

QB point rating as it stands currently vs. how many points they've gained or lost since the beginning of the year. These are 45 QBs who could be potential 2026 or 2027 NFL Draft QBs. Still super early and its hard to gain that much against inferior opponents

Top 30 QBs in my point rating system heading into this week. Big moves up by Marcel Reed, Jake Retzlaff, Joey Aguilar, Taylen Green among others. Drew Allar continues to fall

Another recap + look ahead just hit your inboxes! (If you're subscribed of course, which is 100% free!) Link⬇️ cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-week-o...

Success rate and explosiveness (measured here as what you do when you generate a successful play). Anything right of the vertical dashed line is fine, shows a consistent offense. USC has been both consistent and explosive

*Small sample size alert* But looking at Arch Mannings completion pct vs. expected completion pct, we can see that intermediate 10-19 yard range has really taken a dive so far this year. Hard to fully operate a Sark offense if you can hit those 10-19 yard MOF windows

QB for JUST the games that happened this weekend. Up first is the Power 4. Not a banner day for Drew Allar/Arch Manning, but a great day for Fernando Mendoza, Malik Washington, Josh Hoover & Steve Angeli

A silly little big time throw rate & turnover worthy play rate graph with only a 2 game sample size. Mainly just to say wheewwwww buddy Arch Manning and Diego Pavia. A thrill on every dropback

Top 30 FBS QBs according to my ratings system (a career number, not just this year), as well as how their rating has changed since the beginning of the year. The Oklahoma YoY numbers are going to be insane thanks to John Mateer and Ben Arbuckle

USF has been smashing vegas expectations as they take hold of the Group of 5 playoff spot race. That and more in our weekly advanced stats recap + look ahead. Check it out! ⬇️ cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-week-o...

Completion Pct Over Expectation & how far a QB throws down the field on average. This excludes passes that were thrown away, spikes and drops by WRs

My consensus power ratings after week 1. Still not much separation at the top of the pecking order, Oklahoma-Michigan are neck and neck heading into their game

First weekly recap + look ahead article of the season!!! Check it out here: cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-week-o...

Top 30 QBs in the FBS according to my point ratings. Parker Navarro takes a leap up, Cade Klubnik takes a step back Point explanation here cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/2025-cfb-s...

QB Play for JUST Week 1 (through Saturday) for the Power 4. Film based metric on the Y, per play efficiency on the X. Rocco Becht and Jayden Maiva your most top right so far. Highest PFF Grade: true freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele

247 team talent composite vs. Consensus power ratings heading into week 1. Trend line shows relationship between both, so you really want to be above the line (unlike my alma mater!)

Was watching Bryce Underwoods spring game earlier, wanted to see who added the most expected points in their freshman year in the CFB Playoff era. Here are the top 25 freshman seasons in terms of EPA:

Completion Pct Over Expectation on passes down the MOF vs. passes outside. QBs like Dante Moore/Aidan Chiles/John Mateer need to improve down the middle, while QBs like Drew Allar could stand to hit more sideline shots

LETS GO!! Friendly reminder for LIVE Advanced CFB Stats, there is no better place than gameonpaper.com/cfb/

For the laughs (and also the giggles!) my for fun CFB 12 team bracket. G5 Chaos, Blake Horvath and the Naval Academy emerge. Dylan Raiola + Sawyer Robertson take the leap up leading their teams to the postseason. Then its pretty much chalk

Happy last day before CFB Games start! I simulated the season 5000 times, you can check out the results of those simulations here! cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/simulating...

We have consensus preseason power ratings baby the 2025 COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON IS HERE!!! Check out the article here! cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/previewing...

We have consensus preseason power ratings baby the 2025 COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON IS HERE!!! Check out the article here! cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/previewing...

Missouri State QB Jacob Clark: 6-5, 220lbs. Pretty good mobility for size + solid arm. Among FCS QBs with 100+ dropbacks in 2024: 90.2 PFF Pass Grade (6th) 79.4% Adjusted Comp Pct (T-2nd) 9.6 YPA (1st) In a conference without top end QBs, he might just be it

Will have an article out this week but for now: The 2025 Consensus preseason power ratings, powered by my numbers, KFord Ratings, SP+ and ESPN FPI. Normally don't go two decimal points but the top is TIGHT!

2025 QBs Point Rating vs. their high school 247 composite recruit rating (Guys with a 0.7 were unranked out of high school). I actually love that this is pretty uncorrelated: Guys of all recruit statuses have rose up to be among the best in CFB!

In both major football leagues in 2024, QBs were on average: holding onto the ball more, throwing downfield less, completing passes and taking less risks with the ball. In short: YAC is king in football

Time to dust off the substack!!! I tweaked my QB points rating system, and now its time to preview some 2025 QBs. Hope you enjoy! Link:⬇️ cfbnumbers.substack.com/publish/post...

2025 Season QB Outlook Via @cfbnumbers.bsky.social What’s inside: -A school record Luke Altmyer should break this year -Duke QB Darian Mensah is going to be a tough challenge for Illinois -Plenty of QB stats and charts

Time to dust off the substack!!! I tweaked my QB points rating system, and now its time to preview some 2025 QBs. Hope you enjoy! Link:⬇️ cfbnumbers.substack.com/publish/post...

Average preseason AP Top 25 voting points vs. postseason AP Top 25 voting points. Teams above the line have a higher average final voting points than the preseason. Teams below the line..... you know the story

This seems like the kind of thing that can make for a really janky season, a bunch of high-ceiling but inexperienced QBs leading talented rosters.

Getting my QB preview article ready, thought it'd be interesting to share average QB ratings by conference. This isn't to say the SEC is short on talent, its just short on snaps (Lagway, Manning to name a few)