I can’t stand that online journals can’t format equations properly.

What do people think of this? ai-2027.com

Hey #stats people, what do we think about interpreting coefficients in cloglog binomial regressions? Since everyone hates odds ratios I wonder if interpreting hazard ratios is easier.

Why do we peer review for free?

I need some help with parameterising a latent simplex, so a set of latent probabilities that sum to 1. Can anyone have a yarn?

Hazard rates FTW 🎉

brms is one of the most amazing R packages ever. Nevertheless I can't get myself to use it for my own work because nothing beats coding up your own models where you have ultimate control and insight into what's going on. There remains a "black box" element unless you are deeply familiar with it.

Working on a multisite/multistate/robust design Jolly-Seber model in Stan where I need to marginalise (1) the entry occasion of each individual and (2) the sub-area within each site where each individual enters. 😮‍💨

We just updated our HMM blog by applying the backward sampling algorithm to recover the posterior distributions of latent states. Check it out! quantecol.com.au/blog/hmm-in-...

Hey movement ecology people, are the models implemented in the #ctmm R package essentially just GPs fit to location data?

Launched a bsky page for the ecological stats consultancy, give us a follow!

Those are good looking plots.

Another video in my series on applied time series and forecasting with the {mvgam} #rstats 📦. This one introduces State Space hierarchical GAMs and GPs for tackling multivariate series youtu.be/2POK_FVwCHk?...

New blog post! I show how to marginalise discrete variables from Bayesian ecological models in Stan and how to recover their posterior distributions after estimation. I cover occupancy and N-mixture models using multiple parameterisations and model types. quantecol.com.au/blog/margina...

I've been looking at different parameterisations of multi-season occupancy models, and it seems that dynamic (with colonisation and emigration) and auto-logistic models aren't all that different. Auto-logistic might be preferred with \alpha being a sort of average log odds. @masonfidino.bsky.social

I’ve been enjoying a restful Christmas break, and one of the highlights was this python selecting a carefully placed tin stack to lay her eggs.

Hey guys, how do you do posterior predictive checks for GPs?

It’s hard to beat an afternoon of herping our Gondwana rainforests. Big coastal carpet python under tin and a gravid snake-tooth skink on the crawl were amongst the many finds over the weekend.

Paul Bürkner's brms book is really good. paulbuerkner.com/software/brm...

I forgot about this app until just now. Might use my first post in a while to shill my blog, where I recently wrote a new post about using Gaussian processes for random temporal and/or site effects in (ecological) models. quantecol.com.au/blog/gaussia...

As a first post on Bluesky I'll shill our recently launched #statistics blog, where we'll be focusing on applied statistical ecology in particular. Our first post details a scalable method for fitting increasingly complex hidden Markov models in Stan. quantecol.com.au/blog/hmm-in-...