Imelda expected to make its turn Tuesday. Sept2025

Humberto finally works up the courage to ask Imelda out for a dance. The dance floor opens this Tuesday. #DancingWithTheStars …err Storms #DWTS

Tropical Storm Imelda moving North through Bahamas Sunday afternoon. No watch or warning for US as Tropical Storm winds expected to just stay offshore in current forecast. (1/2 cont) 28Sept2025

Beauty and the Beast - which one is which depends on your view of weather… 27Sept2025 TD9(former PTC9/94L) / Humberto

Post tropical cyclone Gabrielle moving through The Azores Thursday evening. 25Sept2025

Complicated forecast ahead for invest 94L and Humberto. Make sure to follow the official source at Hurricanes.gov 25Sept2025

Tropical systems are solitary creatures. They don’t like each other. When two near they typically either spin around each other (Fujiwhara effect), one absorbs the other (like distracted driver texting barely noticing it hit something), or they rip each other apart. 24Sept2025

Two areas US East coast to monitor. Track uncertainty high. Humberto moving WNW and another area that may develop between Puerto Rico and Bahamas late this week or weekend. These systems may be close enough to interact causing their paths to alter / orbit. 24Sept2025

Gabrielle forecast to become a Hurricane Sunday, then quick turn out East of Bermuda Monday (NHC has about 20% chance of 39-57mph winds for Bermuda). Could near The Azores towards end of week. 20Sept2025

Gabrielle, under strong wind shear, finally popping storms Thursday evening. Better conditions later this weekend for strengthening as generally moves Northwest. General model consensus has a Hurricane turning out to sea just East of Bermuda early next week. 18Sept2025 815pEDT/AST

TD7 in the Atlantic Wednesday morning 17Sept2025. Currently expected to move generally NW turning out near or before Bermuda next week per model guidance. NHC has it being a named Tropical Storm later today.

16Sept2025 -Tropical Storm Mario offshore and parallel to Baja Peninsula. Will help moisture spread into CA, NV, AZ (SW US region) this week/weekend. -96e South of Mexico following behind Mario.

16Sept2025 Don’t know if the Atlantic is waking, but it’s starting to stir. -92L likely develops this week, models say turn up and out (Bermuda?). -Next area rolling off NW Africa. -non-tropical Low spinning near NC (wind/rain still).

Watching Atlantic wave train resume this weekend, no obvious model consensus on land threat. CAG likely confuse models & spit out ghost storms either side of Central America next week. Will watch in case. TD13e along S Mexico coast rain chances. 12Sept2025

Wind shear really impacting Kiko ENE of Hawaii late Monday, blowing storms North, almost exposing low level center. 8Sept2025

Hurricane Kiko remains formidable in the Pacific but cooler waters, dry air and high wind shear are expected to weaken the system soon. NHC currently has 5-10% chance of Tropical Storm winds portions of Hawaii as system passes to the North Tuesday/Wednesday. 6Sept2025

Invest 91L in the Atlantic…never mind. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. 6Sept2025

Lorena off Baja a ghost as wind shear leaves low cloud swirl over water blowing showers into Mexico & SW US. Hurricane Kiko looks like ERC with wobble & filled eye. Should hit wall of wind shear & cool waters at end of weekend weakening before nearing just North of Hawaii next week. 4Sept2025

Area in the Eastern Atlantic with 70% development chance towards this weekend per NHC. Models suggest would take about a week to reach Lesser Antilles (early to mid next week), or may go North of there. Too early to know much more this moment. 2Sept2025 evening.

Hurricane Kiko far from any land in the Eastern Pacific. What ever is left of it could near Hawaii towards middle of next week but models aren’t very supportive of it surviving the trek fully intact. 2Sept2025 evening.

Tropical Storm Lorena forecast to rapidly intensify for a brief period this week before weakening. Main issue for land currently looks to be increased moisture across a large region this week (flood threat). 2Sept2025 evening.

Invest 99L nearing Lesser Antilles. Looks to cross the Caribbean Sea during this upcoming week. 23Aug2025

Record of all NHC Hurricane Erin advisory cone maps. 23Aug2025

Tropical Storm Fernand in the Atlantic 23Aug2025

Sunrise Thursday 21Aug2025 Hurricane Erin

That’s what a hurricane 250miles off the East coast looks like. Hurricane Erin 20Aug2025

Outer edge of Hurricane Erin on radar. Note the faster movement speeds further out where winds are much faster. 835pEDT 20Aug2025

After Hurricane Erin, watching area from Northeast Caribbean to Bermuda for possible development. Also watching the ‘wave train’ (small troughs of storm groups rolling off NW Africa into the Atlantic moving West) but nothing really solid in models at this time. 20Aug2025 730aEDT

Road crews working to keep hwy12 on Hatteras Island open. Pics per NCDOT traffic cams. Hurricane Erin 20Aug2025 Wednesday 730aEDT

Every NHC Hurricane Erin forecast cone map through 8p 19Aug2025

Where’s Hurricane Erin on your fav weather map app? Radar doesn’t have the range to see it currently. If yours does show it then it’s a simulated radar image, likely computer generated based on satellite data and isn’t necessarily correct. 18Aug2025 1225aEDT

NHC has one of the best track records for hurricanes. While forecasted to remain offshore, to bring high surf, large waves, rip currents & beach erosion to much of the U.S. East coast this week. Tropical Storm Watch coastal NC likely issued soon as TS winds extend several hundred miles out 17Aug2025

Model guidance suggest after “Erin” an area of scattered showers and storms currently in the Eastern Atlantic may try to form a Low near the Northeastern Caribbean towards Friday or Saturday this week. 17Aug2025

Hurricane Erin pulling further away from Puerto Rico and VI as some scattered rains continue. 17Aug2025

Mainly storm-less spin of clouds & trough off NC coast has low 10% chance per NHC of tropical trouble. Model guidance implies dissipates Monday ahead of Erin’s passage. Infrared satellite shows colors represent colder cloud tops which can indicate storms are underneath. 17Aug2025

Hurricane Erin passing North of Puerto Rico but close enough for scattered heavy rains and gusty winds. 16Aug2025 1020pEDT/AST #PRVI #PRwx

Amazing image taken by NOAA crew Saturday morning of Hurricane Erin showing calm center (eye) left side of image and incredibly strong winds ripping across the water right side. 16Aug2025

Hurricane Erin Saturday morning 16Aug2025

Hurricane Erin path traveled (Orange with track is Tropical Storm wind reach, Red is hurricane wind reach) and NHC forecast cone map as of Friday 15Aug2025 11pEDT/AST

Storms firing up around Erin’s center. Looks like we’re entering Hurricane mode. 15Aug2025

Erin’s forecasted track by NHC has the center passing North of the Leeward Islands this weekend. But still close enough for rain and possible wind impacts. 5pEDT/AST 14Aug2025 Thursday rainfall and arrival time of Tropical Storm winds & chances(color coded) shown here. For latest: hurricanes.gov

With the first Tropical Storm Watch up for Erin, NHC updates will become every 3 hours at 2, 5, 8, 11am/pmEDT/AST at hurricanes.gov 14Aug2025 (Note: not every single NHC product updates every 3 hours, but many do. The rest are every 6 hours at 5 and 11am/pmEDT/AST. Just look for the time stamp)

Tropical Storm Erin gaining storms and expanding outflow. 13Aug2025

Invest 98L moving from Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche / SW Gulf. Will have all of Thursday and good part of Friday over very warm waters to try and spin up (NHC with low 20% chance currently) before moving into NE Mexico or South Texas region. 13Aug2025

TS Erin finally obtaining a few scattered storms. Will be reaching a more favorable area for intensification later today into Thursday. 13Aug2025 sunrise.

Low pressure off Nova Scotia with some spin and scattered storms, but right on the very edge of warm/cold water line (tropical systems like warm). Once moves into cooler waters soon tropical development chances drop. NHC with 10% development odds next 24 hours. 12Aug2025

Latest satellite imagery shows Tropical Storm Henriette just became a ghost in the Central Pacific. 12Aug2025 (Low level spin of harmless clouds keeps going while storms (colors in infrared image) hopped off at the last stop)

NHC’s first call map for TS Erin. 11Aug2025 11aEDT/AST

Tropical Storm Erin in the Eastern Atlantic. About 280miles(455km) WNW of Cabo Verde Islands. About 2,305miles(3,710km) E of Leeward Islands. NHC currently forecasting Cat3 to pass about 290miles(467km) Northeast of the Leeward Islands around Saturday. 11Aug2025 11aEDT/AST

97L near Cabo Verde islands off NW Africa Sunday evening. Nice consistent little storm blob. Will take all week to cross the Atlantic. 10Aug2025