In Argentina, Trump showed the *financial* upside of close ties to Washington, I told @bloomberg.com. That strategy—not Reaper drones and destroyers—is how the U.S. could regain influence in the Americas. www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

“Estas intervenciones bélicas en la región no son populares, ni dentro del mundo MAGA, ni en general. Las encuestas lo muestran claramente”, comenté a @lanacioncom.bsky.social. www.lanacion.com.ar/estados-unid...

Should Delcy Rodríguez start “showing independence that embarrasses Trump,” it would put pressure on Rubio to reassert control in this telecommunicating occupation, I told the @financialtimes.com. www.ft.com/content/2a85...

“Os desafios na América Latina não serão resolvidos por navios de guerra americanos”, contei ao @valoreconomico.bsky.social em uma entrevista. valor.globo.com/google/amp/m...

Removing Nicolás Maduro to install his top deputy has done little so far to meet the democratic aspirations of Venezuelans, I told @theguardian.com. “You really have to use a magnifying glass to try to find differences.” www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...

By looting Venezuela’s natural resources and marginalizing its democratic opposition, “it seems like Trump goes out of his way to maximize the diplomatic wreckage” of U.S. Latin America policy, I told @theguardian.com. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...

“The United States is everywhere and nowhere in Latin America these days,” I wrote for @inkstickmedia.com. U.S. security policy is “stunningly aggressive.” But in other ways, such as foreign aid and economic integration, “the United States has departed the field.”

“Worryingly, the good planning, good conditions, and good fortune that permitted Maduro’s smooth capture appear to have tempted Trump to test his luck again” in another military operation in Latin America, @dangrazier.bsky.social and I write. responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-venezu...

“The vision now is that Latin America is a shooting gallery and the United States can target whomever it pleases,” I told @economist.com. www.economist.com/the-americas...

“The return of the Monroe Doctrine is coming at a very inconvenient time for Latin America given the divisions in the region,” I told @politico.com. “It’s a low point of regional cooperation and the U.S. is taking advantage of this.” www.politico.com/news/2026/01...

Leaving Delcy Rodríguez in power is not “contradictory unless you presuppose that the United States remains interested in bringing democracy back to Venezuela and protecting the human rights of Venezuelans,” I told the BBC. After all, she might turn out to be a fine partner for U.S. oil companies.

It is not clear the president was ever serious about administering Venezuela as a U.S. protectorate. “If the president really intends to take on the costs and burdens of rebuilding a failed state, I think you would see an erosion of support,” I told the BBC.

Trump might see seizing oil as “the prerogative of the hemisphere’s preeminent power,” but it is an “unsatisfying explanation for governments in the region, echoing earlier U.S. interventions at the behest of banana companies,” I wrote for @stimsoncenter.bsky.social. www.stimson.org/2026/what-wi...

“En la medida en que sean los votantes venezolanos, y no la Fuerza Delta, quienes determinen quién gobierna Venezuela, el ganador exiliado de las últimas elecciones debería estar en el poder”, dije a El Mercurio. digital.elmercurio.com/mobile#2026/...

“Los supuestos motivos de la invasión son más que discutibles”, dije a Clarín. “No tranquilizarán a los de la región que teman vivir en un mundo donde los países más potentes dominan a través del uso de la fuerza”. www.clarin.com/mundo/victor...

“No es casualidad que estas tácticas para presionar al régimen venezolano estén dañando a Cuba al mismo tiempo”, comenté a @latercera.com. www.latercera.com/mundo/notici...

If Trump is serious about governing Venezuela, he is in for an unpleasant surprise, I told @npr.org. “This will be a monumentally expensive, long-lasting, and complicated undertaking,” the “kind of nation-building that the president and his supporters typically oppose.” www.npr.org/2026/01/03/n...

Latin America has many problems, but the U.S. response is “bad medicine,” I told @npr.org. It “needs investment, it needs trade, and it needs help for its law enforcement agencies to be able to fight organized crime. None of those are tasks for an aircraft carrier.” www.npr.org/2025/12/25/n...

“China became a competitor to the United States in Latin America not by moving an aircraft carrier into the region, but through trade, and investment in infrastructure, and being an appealing partner,” I told @francoordonez.bsky.social at @npr.org. www.npr.org/2025/12/22/n...

“You would think, after having deployed an armada of this size” off Venezuela’s coast, “we would have some clear understanding of what the United States really is pursuing, I told @cnn.com. “But it changes almost on a daily basis.”

“La nueva estrategia muestra que Estados Unidos ha dejado de tener interés en promover la democracia en las Américas, y eso es un cambio monumental en la postura de Washington”, comenté a @aoppenheimer.bsky.social. www.reforma.com/trump-y-al-2...

The election of conservatives makes it less likely for Latin America to oppose controversial U.S. policies, “from mass deportations and trade barriers to Trump’s killing spree in the Caribbean,” I told @courthousenews.bsky.social. www.courthousenews.com/kast-win-in-...

In Latin America, “the lurch to the right has momentum,” I told @newsweek.com. “But it’s not inevitable. These are volatile electorates. A misstep or a stalled economy can change the political winds fast.” www.newsweek.com/donald-trump...

“La insatisfacción de los votantes provoca una política pendular permanente”, dije a @efe.com. www.swissinfo.ch/spa/triunfo-...

“‘The choice all countries should face,’ the White House insists, ‘is whether they want to live in an American-led world.’ Troublingly, for many in Latin America, the answer is increasingly no,” I wrote for @stimsoncenter.bsky.social. www.stimson.org/2025/experts...

“Típicamente, hay que usar una lupa para encontrar Latinoamérica” en la estrategia de seguridad de EE.UU., dije a El Mercurio. “Esta vez, la discusión sobre la región es robusta”. t.co/wjQoD5zQPt

It is not inconsistent to threaten to invade Venezuela and also negotiate, I told @thehill.com. The military deployment makes this the right moment “to bully the regime into starting an irreversible political transition and avoid the many potential downsides of war.” thehill.com/policy/defen...

No tengo claro que el Cartel de los Soles exista; es más bien “una forma de describir el involucramiento informal” de militares y de miembros del gobierno venezolano en el narcotráfico, comenté a @uninoticias.bsky.social. www.univision.com/noticias/nar...

The U.S. *should* prioritize Latin America, but we will not regain lost ground by taxing the region’s exports and reducing foreign aid, I told @thehill.com. Rather, the U.S. needs a strategy that “takes advantage of many other tools of national power.” thehill.com/policy/defen...

On Monday, President Trump threatened to send ground troops into Venezuela. In a conversation with @chrislhayes.bsky.social, we discuss how Trump’s Monroe Doctrine sequel reinforces the U.S. image as an imperialist bully for a new generation of Latin Americans. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...

“Would a reopened U.S. base solve the problem? No,” I told @deutschewellerss.newsmast.social.ap.brid.gy.“Above all, Ecuador needs to rid its police and judicial system of corruption and find ways to stop money laundering and dismantle sophisticated criminal groups.“ www.dw.com/en/will-ecua...

“The U.S. is not being forthright about its objectives, and so it’s very difficult to evaluate the strategy in the Caribbean at the moment,” I told @thehill.com. thehill.com/policy/defen...

Milei favors free trade and the U.S. agreement provides a helpful nudge. Even so, there will be political costs, I told @bloomberg.com. “Argentina has been one of the most closed markets in the world for so long that many of its industries simply can’t compete.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

“Like a charitable obituary for a controversial figure, reflections on the last war in Central America tend to downplay gloomier aspects of the invasion and, in doing so, make a war in South America more likely,” we write in a new @stimsoncenter.bsky.social report. www.stimson.org/2025/a-war-i...

U.S. “drone and missile strikes in the Caribbean and Pacific have awakened ghosts of the 20th century,” we write in a new @stimsoncenter.bsky.social report. In Latin America, a war against Venezuela would be seen as “an imperialist tactic by a superpower neighbor.” www.stimson.org/2025/a-war-i...

Nicolás Maduro is as villainous as Stroessner, Pinochet, or Rafael Trujillo. But toppling his dictatorship is no simple task, I told @theguardian.com, “and it certainly would be enormously complex to put Venezuela back together.” www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...

Trump shows little interest in restoring Venezuela’s democracy. Should the regime survive, the U.S. would likely pivot to dealmaking with the dictatorship. “We are both on the verge of war and on the verge of total normalization,” I told @theguardian.com. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...

Copper mining “would be really helpful to accumulate hard currency, which is not a minor advantage for Argentina,” I told @wsj.com. “But it will never drive enough employment and linkages in the economy to be transformative.” www.wsj.com/world/americ...

Trump will reportedly prioritize Latin America in his national security strategy. “It’s going to be difficult to actualize that strategy without allies in the region, and the U.S. has very few partners at the moment,” I explain on @warontherocks.bsky.social. warontherocks.com/episode/the-...

I was delighted to moderate a conversation Wednesday with Chilean Amb. Juan Gabriel Valdés at @johnshopkinssais.bsky.social.

U.S. soybean farmers are understandably frustrated to see China boycotting their crops in favor of Argentine producers—even as the U.S. bails out Argentina. But as I explain on The 21st Show on @npr.org, it’s the U.S. trade war, not Argentina, that’s to blame. will.illinois.edu/21stshow/sto...

“The bond between the White House and the Casa Rosada made this election a barometer of Trump’s regional influence,” I wrote in Americas Quarterly. “In that regard, Milei’s midterm success is a feather in Trump’s cap.” www.americasquarterly.org/article/mile...

Following the U.S. bailout, “the two governments are now inseparable,” I told @newsweek.com. “It remains to be seen how the U.S. uses its leverage—whether to press for opportunities for U.S. mining companies or to drive a wedge between Buenos Aires and Beijing.” www.newsweek.com/trumps-grand...

“Trump’s rescue was consequential” in Argentina’s midterm elections, I told @bloomberg.com. “It is hard to imagine Milei would have performed this well amid an accelerating run on the peso, with the central bank running out of hard currency.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Trump’s decisive support for Milei could play both ways, I told @nytimes.com. “If Milei succeeds, the U.S. will rightly take some credit for it.” On the other hand, “if Milei’s pro-market reforms crash, then many Argentines will blame the United States.” www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/w...

“Es un impresionante resultado para Milei, y una señal alentadora para los inversores que habían estado reacios a invertir debido a la debilidad legislativa de Milei”, dije a @lanacioncom.bsky.social. www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/el-...

“Until now, Milei had mostly governed by executive order,” I told @reuters.com. “That gave investors little reason to believe his policies would not be quickly reversed by a Peronist down the road.” www.reuters.com/world/americ...

“It is exceedingly rare for the Treasury to bail out a foreign government, and Argentina is an odd choice given its record as a serial defaulter and its minimal economic ties to the United States,” I told @newsweek.com. But on Sunday at least, it paid off. www.newsweek.com/argentina-mi...

In Argentina, public dissatisfaction has been building among voters who had been promised “a period of shared prosperity” if they endured Milei’s structural adjustment, I told @theguardian.com. “That really hasn’t materialized.” www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o...

Axel Kicillof’s rise highlights one of Milei’s greatest failures, his inability to build a national consensus around sound economic management, I told @bloomberg.com. “He’s been so unsuccessful that the alternative to him has the opposite economic program.” www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...