@profpape.bsky.social
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Just engaged in a profound discussion on American political violence on one of Europe's most watched programs. The topic of whether US political debate can rebound from Charlie Kirk's killing was explored on DW News Desk. I come in at min 18:05
www.youtube.com/watch?v=34vG...
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Can US political debate recover from Charlie Kirk's killing? | DW News Desk
YouTube video by DW News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34vGHLcUPu8
15 days ago
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Fox's Bill Hemmer and I discuss the new era of violent populism in America:
video.foxnews.com/v/6379504110...
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Professor sounds alarm on 'violent populism' after Charlie Kirk assassination | Fox News Video
University of Chicago professor Robert Pape joined 'America's Newsroom' to discuss why he believes there has been a surge of politically-charged violence amid the fallout from Charlie Kirk's assassina...
https://video.foxnews.com/v/6379504110112
17 days ago
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On âChicago Tonight,â I discuss how Pres Trump is taking us down a dark road and why it is not too late to reverse course:
news.wttw.com/2025/09/09/t...
#ICEoperations
#NationalGuardThreats
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Trump Taking US âDown a Dark Road,â Says UChicago Political Violence Expert
The U.S. Department of Homeland Securityâs launch of âOperation Midway Blitzâ this week is expected to ramp up the deployment of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in Chicago.
https://news.wttw.com/2025/09/09/trump-taking-us-down-dark-road-says-uchicago-political-violence-expert
22 days ago
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On "The Chicago Report," I engage in discussion with former Chief of Chicago Police and prominent ACLU leader on ICE operations and potential threats posed by National Guard. Watch the insightful conversation:
www.fox32chicago.com/video/1705024
#ChicagoReport
#ICEoperations
#NationalGuardThreats
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The Chicago Report: Panel debates ICE operations, threats of National Guard
Fox 32's Paris Schutz leads a panel with Robert Pape, a political science professor at the University of Chicago, Garry McCarthy, the former superintendent of the Chicago Police Department, and Ed Yoh...
https://www.fox32chicago.com/video/1705024
22 days ago
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NPR All Things Considered's Scott Detrow and I had a thought-provoking discussion on What happens when democracies use military force to occupy their own territory You can listen here:
www.npr.org/2025/09/07/n...
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What happens when democracies use military force to occupy their own territory?
NPR's Scott Detrow talks with Robert A. Pape of the University of Chicago about what happens when democracies use military force to occupy their own territory. Weeks of talk of sending federal troops ...
https://www.npr.org/2025/09/07/nx-s1-5530210/what-happens-when-democracies-use-military-force-to-occupy-their-own-territory
24 days ago
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The world is closely following how Chicago is bracing for federal troops. Watch my BBC interview:
youtu.be/rcBiBIN0B0Q
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BBC World News: Chicago Braces for National Guard
YouTube video by Chicago Project on Secuity and Threats
https://youtu.be/rcBiBIN0B0Q
25 days ago
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As expected in my NYT oped, Chicago is now beginning to mobilize protests vs the federal forces. The story confirms 150k+ undoc immigrants in Chicago, ~10% of city. President Trump, please reconsider your plan to "liberate" Chicago, as you recently called this.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/u...
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Chicago Braces for Trumpâs Immigration Crackdown
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/us/trump-immigration-chicago.html
26 days ago
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Fred Wellman and I discuss Chicago's Dark Road on his important podcast. Already has 100k views. You can watch it here:
www.youtube.com/live/bn5ECRw...
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LIVE: Chicago STRIKES BACK as Trump THREATENS INVASION
YouTube video by MeidasTouch
https://www.youtube.com/live/bn5ECRwB6BI?si=evQ3iYVlVt5ci36_
26 days ago
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As highlighted in my recent NYT op-ed and exemplified in this article, U.S. cities appreciate federal assistance in combating crime. But, they are wary of excessive military presence due to its potential political ramifications. Read more about this nuanced issue:
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/06/u...
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Many Cities Say Yes to Federal Police Help, but No to âOccupationâ
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/06/us/federal-law-enforcement-national-guard-policing.html
26 days ago
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Surging federal troops into Chicago would be a dangerous mistake, but it is not too late for cooler heads to prevail. Explore the reasons why in my new New York Times piece:
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/o...
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Opinion | Chicago Could Be a Powder Keg
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/opinion/trump-chicago-national-guard.html
27 days ago
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Is Trump interested in "law and order"? See the Surprisingly Violent âNon-Violentâ Offenders in the Capitol Hill Siege who Trump Pardoned:
cpost.uchicago.edu/publications...
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UChicago CPOST
https://cpost.uchicago.edu/publications/bystanders_or_active_participants_the_surprisingly_violent_non_violent_offenders_in_the_capitol_hill_siege/
about 2 months ago
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Meet the violent offenders against police that Trump pardoned:
cpost.uchicago.edu/publications...
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UChicago CPOST
https://cpost.uchicago.edu/publications/not_just_oath_keepers_and_proud_boys/
about 2 months ago
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NYT has my extensive commentary on how Trump is siding with law and order so long as it supports his political agenda.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/u...
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Trump Deploys National Guard for D.C. Crime but Called Jan. 6 Rioters âVery Specialâ
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/us/politics/trump-jan-6-dc-crime.html
about 2 months ago
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(2 of 2) I had an lengthy discussion on why political violence is rising in America with CNN's Michael Smerconish. Here is my commentary: The rise in Political Violence with Robert Pape Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago Robert Pape:
f.io/QvMIb2x4
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Frame.io
https://f.io/QvMIb2x4
about 2 months ago
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(1 of 2) I had an lengthy discussion on why political violence is rising in America with CNN's Michael Smerconish. Here is his excellent opening commentary: Smerconish: Civility in Crisis â Running for office shouldnât require a flak jacket. Commentary:
f.io/hYP1CMbm
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Frame.io
https://f.io/hYP1CMbm
about 2 months ago
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We are witnessing a significant moment in history. Israelâs campaign in Gaza is the most lethal case of a Western democracy using the punishment of civilians as a tactic of war. Israel must reverse course or face the world's growing wrath.
www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/unpar...
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The Unparalleled Devastation of Gaza
Why punishing civilians has not yielded strategic success.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/unparalleled-devastation-gaza
about 2 months ago
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In the midst of mounting tensions across the United States, Texas lawmakers have sought sanctuary in Illinois. Divisions in the US continue to escalate from words to actions. Check out my recent interview with ABC News to gain more insights: (
abc7chicago.com/videoClip/17...
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Texas Democrats increase spotlight on Pritzker as key figure opposing Trump agenda
Politicians leaving the state is a tried and true strategy. But this fight is happening on a bigger stage, said UChicago Political Science Professor Robert Pape.
https://abc7chicago.com/videoClip/17433308/
about 2 months ago
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What are the lasting consequences of bombing Iran? Regime change? More War? Enduring cease-fire? I was part of deep conversation with highly knowledgeable experts hosted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. To learn more, watch here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCi4...
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The Middle East on Edge: Whatâs Next for Iran, Israel, and the Region
YouTube video by Chicago Council on Global Affairs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCi4FWezSPo
2 months ago
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To delve deeper into the analysis, my original Foreign Affairs article is here:
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
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Israelâs Futile Air War
Precision strikes will not destroy Iranâs nuclear programâor its government.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/israels-futile-air-war
2 months ago
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It's evident that the outcomes predicted in my Foreign Affairs article about the strategic consequences of bombing Iran have materialized. The bombing bolstered support for the Iranian regime and failed to eradicate its enriched uranium.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/w...
2 months ago
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The Middle East is edging closer to a potentially catastrophic nuclear conflict, with unprecedented challenges. To avert these looming dangers, a transformative shift in America's nuclear policy is imperative. Read more about this critical issue:
www.chicagotribune.com/2025/07/20/o...
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Robert A. Pape: To prevent nuclear war in the Middle East, America needs to change its nuclear doctrine
The world is moving closer to the brink of nuclear war in alarming ways that are more dangerous and harder to anticipate than during the Cold War. The famous 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis was a harrowiâŠ
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/07/20/opinion-iran-nuclear-weapons-us-doctrine/
2 months ago
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A short version of Postol's excellent technical analysis showing how elbow air shafts almost certainly prevented US bombs from destroying Fordo:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=TriA...
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BUNKER BUSTER BOMB Myth /MIT Prof Ted Postol & Lt Col Daniel Davis
YouTube video by Daniel Davis / Deep Dive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TriASB-F5UY
3 months ago
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The best technical analysis so far showing how easy it was for Iran to move the 60% HEU and hard for US bombs to destroy the key chambers at Fordo, esp min 25-29 and 40-46:
www.google.com/search?sca_e...
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ted postol iran - Google Search
https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=b0b02ac746e93036&rlz=1C1GCEJ_enUS1005US1006&sxsrf=AE3TifMpFLjS1sUz7gmF33xn1TGSHXDmkw:1751315381891&q=ted+postol+iran&udm=7&fbs=AIIjpHxU7SXXniUZfeShr2fp4giZrjP_Cx0LI1Ytb_FGcOviEreERTNAkkP8Y6EXltYTGWs9RGaEMfZ2dZFFrbmM-rnqDh6hIMjQfCAhrLJz0ZmMZpUjCqTWcnwxm3CIjs0GarosQfLkZI74FJnvDMIm-XrwYNH_ZLlnLC3tycVbHgi9_Y2zDHGtoE3W6PReY7DiZvfCy8yTVgdH6w-S-Wt5wwt6R5lw8w&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjGquiZ_pmOAxU3LFkFHWLkCP8QtKgLKAJ6BAgUEAE&biw=1229&bih=562&dpr=1.56#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:ea2c479a,vid:dHvOhBKNs-E,st:0
3 months ago
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Now clear Israel and US attacks on Iran's nuclear program were all high risk, no meaningful reward. We are not stopping nuclear breakout, but creating an Iran with nuclear teeth:
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/u...
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Strike Set Back Iranâs Nuclear Program by Only a Few Months, U.S. Report Says
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/us/politics/iran-nuclear-sites.html
3 months ago
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The main problem with Israel/US air strikes on Frodo is now clear: No way to assess damage to Iran's nuclear stockpile, just as I explained would happen week ago in detail:
www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/israels...
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Israelâs Futile Air War
Precision strikes will not destroy Iranâs nuclear programâor its government.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/israels-futile-air-war
3 months ago
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On CBS Evening News, I discuss why it is too late for US air power alone to knock out Iran's nuclear program, and turn Iran into an angry beast with nuclear teeth:
cbsnews.com/video/what-a...
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What are Iran's retaliation options if the U.S. were to strike?
President Trump says he will decide whether to strike Iran within the next two weeks. Iran's supreme leader has warned that U.S. intervention would cause "irreparable damage." Robert Pape, professor o...
http://cbsnews.com/video/what-are-iran-retaliation-options-if-us-were-to-strike
3 months ago
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See why Israel and now the US are falling into the "smart bomb trap" -- overconfidence in air power leading to another "forever" war:
www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/israels...
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Israelâs Futile Air War
Precision strikes will not destroy Iranâs nuclear programâor its government.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/israels-futile-air-war
4 months ago
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Why America is on the brink of an extremely violent era in politics and what we can do about it:
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/o...
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Opinion | Political Violence Is Rising. This Is What We Can Do to Stop It.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/opinion/political-violence-minnesota.html
4 months ago
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NYT, CNN report Israel hitting residential buildings in Tehran, w 100+ civilians killed. If a mistake, Israel should express deep regret for killing civilians, as US did in Kosovo. Crucial to limit escalation, esp as Iran gets closer to nuclear weapons:
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06...
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Live Updates: Israel Launches New Strikes on Tehran
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/15/world/iran-israel-nuclear
4 months ago
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Israeli strikes predictably hitting Tehran residential areas. But as Iran-Iraq âwar of the citiesâ and many Western bombing campaigns show, punishing civilians wonât cause Iran to back down. Iran nuclear weapons getting closer by the day:
www.cnn.com/world/live-n...
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Live updates: Israeli death toll rises as conflict rages with Iran | CNN
Iran and Israel have launched more round of missiles at each other as the Middle East conflict escalates. Follow our live updates.
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-strikes-news-06-15-25#cmbxo076500003b6nm3c8nnuq
4 months ago
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Pres Trumpâs statement condemning political violence in Minnesota is strong. A joint video statement by Trump and Newsom would be best! In everyoneâs interest to avoid 3rd act of pol violence in a week, esp w/ shooter on loose.
#PoliticalViolence
#Trump
#GovNewsom
:
www.fox9.com/news/donald-...
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MN lawmaker shootings: President Trump says 'such horrific violence will not be tolerated'
President Donald Trump says âsuch horrific violence will not be tolerated" after Minnesota Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark were fatally shot in a targeted attack early Saturday. The suspect ...
https://www.fox9.com/news/donald-trump-mn-lawmaker-shootings-melissa-hortman-john-hoffman
4 months ago
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Crucial for Pres Trump, Speaker Johnson and Republican political leaders to stand up loudly against the politically motivated assassination of Democratic lawmakers:
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06...
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Live Updates: Minnesota Lawmaker Is Assassinated in Act of âTargeted Political Violenceâ
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/14/us/minnesota-shootings
4 months ago
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Last evening, I was on Meidas Touch's large podcast discussing the next phase of the protests and the crucial positive program going forward. 5 million subscribers, 200k views so far, 6,000 live:
www.youtube.com/live/jbcG8TI...
4 months ago
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The big question: Why would Iran abandon nuclear weapons if Israel can attack the country and its leaders for any reason Israel wants? Unless the US answers this question, any future negotiations with Iran are unlikely to produce meaningful results.
4 months ago
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A big risk: Isreal strikes Iran's nuclear reactor at Bushehr, Iran retaliates vs Israel's nuclear plant at Dimona. Radiation spreads in both countries. Trump's goal should be to de-escalate this now, not threaten more as he is now
4 months ago
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In 100 years of trying, air power alone has never toppled a government. Israel's leadership decapitation strikes are likely to be just another data point.
www.fdd.org/analysis/202...
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Possible Targets in Iran: Military, Nuclear, and Regime Infrastructure
...
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/10/08/possible-targets-in-iran-military-nuclear-and-regime-infrastructure/
4 months ago
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US has 40k troops and bases within easy range of Iran's missiles and proxies:
www.americansecurityproject.org/national-sec...
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U.S. Bases in the Middle East
https://www.americansecurityproject.org/national-security-strategy/u-s-bases-in-the-middle-east/
4 months ago
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Israel's military chief of staff promises costs, not success: âPeople of Israel, I canât promise absolute success. The Iranian regime will attempt to attack us in response. The expected cost will be different from what we are used to.â
www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...
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IDF chief: A time of difficult decisions; weâve long prepared for this
* * *
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-chief-a-time-of-difficult-decisions-weve-long-prepared-for-this/
4 months ago
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While world watches Iran, Israel may well escalate further in Gaza.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=iScc...
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Israel-Hamas War: Israeli Plan Entails Holding Of Territories After Gaza 'Conquest' | WION Dispatch
YouTube video by WION
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iScc2JBVPLE
4 months ago
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The strikes show gross incompetence by the Trump admin on national security. The US has allowed Israel to create a hornet's nest in the Middle East At risk: US troops, oil, and terrorism. Trump is now a pro-war president -- the opposite of what he promised just months ago.
4 months ago
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Israeli strikes have wider implications, entangling the US in the conflict. Without decisive victory, Iran is likely to rebound, becoming even more radical. Greater challenges for the US coming and won't end soon.
4 months ago
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Israeli strikes on Iran are falling into that I call the "smart bomb trap" - overconfidence in precision air strikes that ignores powerful nationalist reactions of defiance leading to a costly quigmire. The US fell into the trap vs Iraq in 2003. Iran is more dangerous.
4 months ago
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Israeli air strikes are unlikely to knock out Iran's nuclear program. Fordow is the key, deeply buried under a mountain:
isis-online.org/isis-reports...
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Summary of Report: The Fordow Enrichment Plant, aka Al Ghadir [1] - | Institute for Science and International Security
ISIS is a non-profit, non-partisan institution providing public knowledge of nuclear proliferation and international security.
https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/summary-of-report-the-fordow-enrichment-plant-aka-al-ghadir-1/8
4 months ago
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As LA tensions rise, escalation beyond the city looms large. Our CPOST national survey shows 40% of Dems believe force is justified to oust Trump from office, while 25% of Rs back Trump's deployment of military forces vs protests Gov Newsom and Pres Trump should end this now.
4 months ago
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With 1 million illegal migrants near LA, escalation from Trump's deploying National Guard is a genuine concern. With 60% of country favoring deportation, a spectacle could backlash, with public backing for stricter actions. Prime time for cooler heads:
www.migrationpolicy.org/data/unautho...
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Profile of the Unauthorized Population - County Data (6037)
Learn about the estimated 11.4 million unauthorized immigrants living in the United Statesâwhere do they live? When did they arrive in the United States, and from which origin countries? What are thei...
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/data/unauthorized-immigrant-population/county/6037
4 months ago
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Ukraine drone attack signals protracted Russian vulnerability. Like Israelâs pager attack vs 4000 Hamas fighters, the strategic effect of an intelligence network inside the enemy may be even more important than the 1000 fold tactical cost benefit ratio:
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
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After Ukraineâs innovative airbase attacks, nowhere in Russia is safe
Ukraine carried out one of the most audacious operations in modern military history on June 1, using swarms of smuggled drones to strike four Russian airbases simultaneously and destroy a significant ...
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/after-ukraines-innovative-airbase-attacks-nowhere-in-russia-is-safe/
4 months ago
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I had a fascinating conversation with Fred Wellman on his On Democracy podcast on the danger of protest movements falling into violence and how we can avoid the trap.
#Democracy
#PoliticalViolence
youtu.be/lTcfYRAlljc
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We are on the edge of violence
YouTube video by On Democracy Channel
https://youtu.be/lTcfYRAlljc
4 months ago
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