My plan rest of finals was going to be “bet home moneyline unless < -120" but betting the underdog rest of series also considered. Vegas barely favored, my models like the dog, so Canes are my pick. Or maybe wait until one of them goes up 2-0 then live bet the other team #NHLBets

As a Red Wings fan, I’m considering an appointment with my doctor for better anxiety medication….

At first glance, Vegas +130 looked appealing, but my betting models had a strong Carolina preference and giving excellent playoff advice. Home teams 12-6 in the last 3 finals. My gut says this is a closer series than the betting line suggests, but I'm picking the hosts. #NHLbets

BREAKING NEWS! The Hockeynomics Factory Summer Sale on annual subscriptions is underway, price dropping from a sensual $69 to $50 Canadian money! This buys you betting #NHLpicks for roughly the next 1400 NHL non-preseason games, and a few of my own personal spreadsheets.

I’ve largely stayed away from pucklines -1.5 goals in the playoffs (0 for 1) but Carolina just had the largest even strength expected goals margin of victory in the last 5,585 NHL games. I’d love this series extended just for more hockey to watch, but this feels over... #NHLbets

This was an inspiring run by Montreal, but they looked severely outmatched last two games, pushing my betting models decidedly Carolina. I'd rather the Canadian team advance, but have lost all hope. Generating offense is a real problem. #NHLbets

Montreal struggled terribly generating offense last game, despite forcing overtime, spending 8 minutes on the power play and were outshot. I’m cheering for the Canadian team, but my betting models like Carolina -130 and are having a good playoffs. The line moved to -155, which I don’t like as much.

My Colorado pick was made prior to finding out Makar is returning (based on betting model advice, producing good results lately), but returning felt likely based on the practice footage. The line only moved from -148 to -155, probably offset by Stone returning too. #NHLbets

Game two Montreal vs Carolina is another case where I think the favorite probably wins, but don’t want to pay the offered price, so I’m picking the underdog, who are 3-0 to start round three. Habs ML is backed up by my betting models, who helped hit 15 of my last 20 picks. #NHLBets

Colorado is a big favorite to win game two after losing game one 4-2, because public loves betting home teams coming off a loss in playoffs (especially the series favorite in game two), but I hate paying taxes, so taking Vegas +154, which has moved to +145. #NHLbets

Colorado is my pick to win the series, I’m just not convinced they are -180 better than Vegas, betting models agreed. That line has moved to -175. I’m also lacking confidence that the Golden Knights will actually win this game, so will default to the puckline +1.5 goals. #NHLBets

Montreal was dominant game three, but UPL outplayed Dobes in game four. Canadiens still appeared to be the better team, so I like getting them as an underdog in game five, supported by betting models and profit scores. #NHLbets

My betting models have leaned heavily into road teams the last 2 weeks, so seeing them flip home-side in Colorado tonight was an easy sell. This line has moved to -230 and at that price I’d probably rather take Minnesota. Avs are the better team, but goalies can steal playoff games.

Minnesota looked much better last game, but not enough that I’m willing to defy my betting models. In the playoffs, my best models have been those who love picking visitors, The bad news, road teams are suddenly on a 3-game losing streak. #BettingTips

My gut says Montreal probably wins on the strength of goaltending, but getting Buffalo as a +105 road dog was too tempting to pass, especially when supported by my betting models. Road Sabres have been good to us this season.

The Minnesota Wild look overmatched against Colorado, my betting models agree and they don't watch hockey. This is maximum desperation for Minnesota, so maybe that draws out a better performance, I just requiring seeing before believing. #NHLBets

My game one moneyline/puckline picks in round two went 0-4, but I'm 6-0 since, mostly just following the advice of my betting models, who have playoff specific angles performing well this post-season. I do need Philly to win twice to hit my series "correct score" pick. #NHLbets

Flyers played a much better game two and taking them +130 game three was tempting, but my #NHLbetting models and profit scores insisted on Carolina, so that's my pick. Though my series pick is Canes in 6, so I need Flyers to win a couple before it ends...

Sabres were my series pick prior to running game one numbers and looking at Canadiens recent record in Buffalo, but there were other series-level indicators supporting the premature decision. Montreal's line moved to +120, so the public disagrees with me. #NHLbetting

Certainly seems easier to leap frog several teams to win the NHL draft lottery if you’re in one of the NHL’s biggest markets….

My plan before the series was betting all home teams in game two, but history didn't repeat in game ones, so I'm a little worried about my Avalanche pick. Took Wild last game, felt stupid 1st period, smart in the 2nd, stupid again in the 3rd. I'll trust my models. #NHLpicks

Underdogs were an awesome bet in game one of the last three round twos, hence why I picked Anaheim vs Vegas despite Knights being my series pick. I've just lost a little confidence with favorites currently 2-0 in this R2... 😬 #BettingTips

Home teams won 9 of the last 12 game twos in round two, that's why I'm tailing betting models and profit scores betting Canes moneyline. The price is a little excessive, moving to -270, but that was a convincing game one performance. #NHLbets

The reason I liked Minnesota as a +142 underdog was defeating a much better opponent, Colorado possibly rusty from longer layoff. This moved to +170 on Eriksson Ek injury news, but I still like Wild +170 more than Avs -205. Check my round 2 #NHLBetting preview for more analysis!

Philadelphia won 2 of their last 15 games against Carolina, but covered +1.5 goals 10 times. Canes are my series pick, but historically underdogs are strong game one of round two, so I'm not paying the Hurricanes tax. #NHLBets

My Round 2 #NHLPLAYOFFS Betting Preview is now available on Substack! The Atlantic preview is being added tomorrow once the match-up is final, but other series and game one #NHLbets are available for free! We convert history into strategy! 📈 Read more👇 hockeconomics.substack.com/p/2026-nhl-p...

It’s risky going against a high-seed home team coming off a loss, but that’s also why I’m getting the game one winner at +160. This is more a value play than me confidently believing Montreal will win. #NHLbetting

Over/under picks are 6-5, less exciting but not bad. All picks drop first in Substack Chat, free plays on Instagram! #BettingTips #NHLpicks

I was a little uncomfortable paying -162 for Edmonton moneyline, which has moved to -192. I’m not quite at that level of trust in this Oilers team.

Hard not to like what I saw from Minnesota last game, who are my pick to win the series and a stylistic problem for Dallas, but I’m going with high-seed home team coming off a loss in game two. #NHLbets

Ottawa was my pick in game one because road dogs are profitable in the first 2 weeks of playoffs, so models convinced me, but after watching the game, I’m concerned about Sens ability to create scoring chances. Injuries on defense might be too much to overcome Carolina onslaught.

Pittsburgh is my series pick and home teams (especially the higher seed) tend to be a good bet coming off a loss, but I didn’t see enough from them game one to pay -155. #NHLbets

The Colorado line moved to -290 when -250 was already expensive. No value there. #NHLBets

Penguins are my series pick, but my models convinced me to bet Philly game one. Read more about it in my round one betting preview! #NHLbets

Visit the Hockeynomics Factory on Substack to get free #NHLbets for every game tomorrow, picks for every game tonight in the chat, plus a bunch of #FantasyHockey waiver recommendations to help win your championship! Win money, win fantasy titles!

Tonight's best bet is not the first featuring Colorado beating Winnipeg, so this confidence score is low, but tonight's card solicited low confidence scores on average. Somebody needs to rank #1 and it's not always pretty. #NHLbets

Chat GPT really wanted to make this plane already crashing into the ocean, but I insisted there be a chance the pilot could pull up time to land, it's just looking grim…

My daily #NHLpicks are doing well this month, but better on bets recommending people stay away. Some of that is my heavily biased Detroit pessimism coming to fruition being a bad reason for people following my advice. They always collapse in March and history is repeating. 💰📈

Last night top ranked #NHLbets moved to 28-9, and we have another today, shared for free on the blog yesterday. Another for Sunday will be shared on the blog later today.

Last night top ranked #NHLbets moved to 27-9 since ranking began (31-9 if we count unapproved top picks), maybe half those wins were Buffalo, who don't play tonight, so Carolina moneyline surged to the top of my daily ranks. Full card available for free in Substack chat.

Taking a live look at the Western Conference #NHLPLAYOFFS race!

I’ve logged a pick on the last 9,000 NHL games, in the process acquiring an extensive #NHLbetting analytics education, enforced by a Math Econ degree. What works best is a constant evolution, an intellectual arms race of bettor vs books. Visit my site for the latest trends!

BREAKING NEWS! #NHLBets for all Friday's games are available in Substack chat! Bad news: I recommended staying away from 9 of the 10 bets. Good news: Last 10 days my ML/PL stay aways are 25-9, over/under 40-28. I call this a "confidence inversion", when picks I hate > picks I like. 💰

I’ve logged #NHLpicks on every single game since Oct 2019 and finally started ranking bets from best to worst 250 games ago. Top ranked bets are 24-5 (83%) while approved bets are 67-31 (69%). Tuesday’s full card was shared for free on my site Monday. Hit 10 of the top 14.

Top ranked #NHLbets move to 22-5 since ranking began, but we received some bad news Jake Sanderson won't be playing for Ottawa, so that drops the confidence score. If you need a replacement for your #FantasyHockey team, my weekly waiver report (link in bio) has you covered!

My week 20 #FantasyHockey report is live! Check your waiver wires for Ottawa Senators to start the week, I'm rolling the dice on Shane Pinto, a good bet to pick up points! Top target is Cozens but unavailable in my subscriber league. More waiver targets👇 hockeconomics.substack.com/p/week-20-fa...

My top ranked bets moved to 21-5 with Boston's win yesterday, but today's adds more risk because we're going against an elite team. I did not green light any Sunday bets, but somebody had to rank #1. Sabres have delivered for us so often I'm actually becoming a fan... #NHLBets

My top ranked bet of the night moved to 8-2 since NHL returned from Olympics, St. Louis playing spoiler in both losses. These are shared with free subscribers daily, dropping first in Substack chat if you like getting in early. Boston is up next, winning 11-straight at home. #NHLbets

I made some new #LeafsForever art for my post-deadline #NHLbets and shortly afterwards Dylan Larkin's right knee bent awkwardly and he left the game (I was watching) in lots of pain (I'm a #LGRW fan). It's either a huge coincidence, or a monkey paw curse coming back to roost...