Vietnam is elevating foreign affairs to a ‘Core, Frequent’ mission on par with national defense and public security at the upcoming 14th national congress of the Communist Party. For @thediplomat.com, I explain the significance of the shift. thediplomat.com/2025/11/why-...

Will North Korea defend China in a Taiwan war if US intervenes on Taiwan's side? That is the question I tackle in my @lowyinstitute.bsky.social oped. North Korea's help with Russia's liberation of Kursk means it won't sit idly by when its ally China is attacked. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

President Lee Jae-myung's “Exchange, Normalization, and Denuclearization” initiative to reengage Pyongyang is ambitious, but it's likely to fail. This is because END is built on outdated assumptions about North Korea. My latest @thediplomat.com thediplomat.com/2025/11/lee-...

I'm happy to share that my dissertation chapter on the logic of Vietnam's alliance policy and its alliances with Laos and the Soviet Union is now out at Asian Survey. Many thanks to my professors, the editorial team, reviewers, and friends! online.ucpress.edu/as/article/d...

Pleased to share that I was quoted in this Wall Street Journal report on Vietnam's island building activities in the South China Sea. www.wsj.com/world/asia/v...

General Secretary To Lam's visit to North Korea shows Hanoi wants to bridge differences between the West and a China-Russia-North Korea bloc. Hanoi will explore the possibility of another Trump-Kim summit on this occasion. My latest @lowyinstitute.bsky.social www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

China isn't the only country ignoring Hanoi's island-building activities. The US, the Philippines, ASEAN, and even Taiwan also downplay Hanoi's actions. I explain @thediplomat.com how Hanoi's non-aligned foreign policy has muted international reactions. thediplomat.com/2025/10/how-...

Are there North Korean troops in Ukraine? Recent media reports claim that there are. However, as I explain for @lowyinstitute.bsky.social, those reports lack reliable evidence of North Korean soldiers operating beyond Kursk. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

In my latest for @thediplomat.com, I explain why Vietnam's demographic decline will reinforce Hanoi's non-aligned foreign policy. Eschewing foreign military commitments and modernizing armed forces will be vital to managing the decline. thediplomat.com/2025/08/why-...

In my latest for @lowyinstitute.bsky.social, I dissect North Korea's logic behind its ambitious naval modernization program. The program makes little military sense, but it helps Kim Jong-un cement his legacy entering his 15th year of supreme leadership. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

The Thailand-Cambodia clash is testing ASEAN centrality. Learning from the lesson of the Vietnam-Cambodia border war of 1978, ASEAN should avoid great-power intervention and settle the dispute peacefully and diplomatically. My latest @lowyinstitute.bsky.social www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

Vietnam is different from the rest of Asia in that it doesn't depend on U.S. for security and China for trade. In fact, the opposite is true. Because VN prioritizes security over economy, Trump using tariff to isolate it from China will fail. My latest. thediplomat.com/2025/07/why-...

South Korea's new President Lee Jae-myung will have to address the Russia-North Korea alliance. However, like his predecessor Yoon Suk-yeol, Lee will not be able to break it. My latest @lowyinstitute.bsky.social www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

Pleased to share that I will be heading to Singapore for the IISS 22nd #SLD25 this week. If you happen to be in town, let's grab a drink!

As long as former enemies respect Vietnam’s territorial integrity & political system, VN is ready to make amends with them like with France, US, China. RVN sympathizers should respect VN's political system for reconciliation to begin. My latest @thediplomat.com thediplomat.com/2025/05/unde...

North Korea's growing casualties and its plan to send more troops to Russia are unnerving the population. Pyongyang acknowledging its troops dying in Russia is to soothe public anger and justify more troop dispatch. My latest @lowyinstitute.bsky.social www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

Trump's 46% tariffs on Vietnam won't change the trajectory of Vietnam's foreign policy vis-a-vis the major powers, but they suggest to Vietnam that Hanoi is dispensable despite what the US says about Vietnam's geopolitical importance. My latest @thediplomat.com thediplomat.com/2025/04/trum...

A smart quick reax from @khangxvu.bsky.social to the extraordinary conclusion of the Yoon presidency in South Korea. History echoes - with Donald Trump in the White House, and the prospect of getting back to talks with North Korea. But it won't be fast. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

Yoon Suk-yeol's removal has opened a pathway for a Lee Jae-myung presidency. However, the path back to inter-Korean dialogue will be steep due to North Korea's alliance with Russia and South Korea's domestic polarization. My latest @lowyinstitute.bsky.social www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

South Korean court removes president from office, says he violated duties www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

Nguyen The Phuong of UNSW Canberra neglected to cite my works on Vietnam's grand strategy and maritime-continental dilemma in his ISEAS article published in November 2024. He also did not cite other authors and presented those ideas as if they were his. www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-com...

North Korea's decision to seal its border to tourists one month after opening it seems puzzling. However, the country has reasons to reverse course because it wants to keep its population unaware of troop casualties in Russia. Latest @lowyinstitute.bsky.social www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

Southeast Asian countries involving the US into their maritime disputes with China may be counterproductive because it hardens Chinese attitude toward SEA. SEA should learn from Vietnam's experience of settling disputes with China. My latest @thediplomat.com thediplomat.com/2025/03/what...

On today's SEA Radio podcast, Elina Noor and I chat with @khangxvu.bsky.social about Vietnam's massive govt restructuring plans and "Era of National Rise" www.csis.org/podcasts/sou...

Eyeballs - Newsweek quotes @khangxvu.bsky.social from Interpreter @lowyinstitute.bsky.social and his analysis on the North Korean troops fighting with Russia against Ukraine. www.newsweek.com/trump-says-m...

If Russia can balance between US and North Korean needs in its negotiation with the US, N. Korea could entrust Russia, rather than S. Korea, to be the mediator brokering US-North Korea talks. My latest on the implications of US-Russia talks.

It seems absurd, the idea of North Korea being party to peace negotiations over the future of Ukraine. Yet it's part of the fight. By @khangxvu.bsky.social www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

Today is the 46th anniversary of China’s invasion of Vietnam. Vietnam likened Deng Xiaoping to Hitler in its propaganda. The Vietnamese phrase in the poster is “birds of a feather flock together.”

Vietnam is proclaiming an "era of national rise," but there're inherent risks of imperial overstretch. Vietnam needs to match its ends and means and avoids new international responsibilities to ensure best chance of success for the "era." My latest @thediplomat.com thediplomat.com/2025/02/viet...

With Donald Trump back in the White House, there is a possibility of a resumption of US-North Korea talks. However, this time, Russia stands in the way of any US‑North Korea deal. My latest for Lowy Institute. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

My first of 2025. There may be concerns that North Korea is about to wage a war of unification against South Korea, but as I explain for @thediplomat.com, North Korea is more occupied with making money than making war. thediplomat.com/2025/01/nort...

My latest @thediplomat.com. China can successfully coerce Vietnam to stop its island expansion activities by sending Hanoi a clear military threat to attack Vietnam’s outposts without a threat to occupy them. thediplomat.com/2024/12/how-...

"According to a tip from “an embassy of a friendly nation,” Yoon attempted to have S. Korean special forces disguised as N. Korean soldiers provide a pretext for his declaration of martial law by assassinating Han Dong-hun." This TBR update is worth a read. www.blueroofpolitics.com/post/tbr-wee...

North Korea has exercised great restraint despite South Korean provocations. I cannot emphasize this point enough - North Korea desires a stable inter-Korean relationship to be able to send troops to Europe. It will only retaliate with non-kinetic measures. english.hani.co.kr/arti/english...

Latest from me on why North Korea won't exploit South Korea's ongoing political crisis. North Korea shifting its focus to the war in Ukraine gives it an incentive to maintain peace on the peninsula, and this pattern has been clear since the start of 2024. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

This is really interesting so I’ll do a thread translating-summarizing it. 1/

I can no longer resist joining this space.