The Commission’s new “intelligence cell” could backfire, pulling analysis into a political space and making EU states share less, not more. Our Euractiv piece explains why trust, not expansion, is the real bottleneck. @dvanp.bsky.social @evamichaels.bsky.social www.euractiv.com/opinion/von-...

In my @volkskrant.nl op-ed I describe how warnings often vanish in rules, hierarchy, or fear. And I argue we need systems that remember not heroes that rescue. Relevant for anyone in safety, risk, or organizational resilience. www.volkskrant.nl/columns-opin...

Jaar in, jaar uit zaaien ze haat op tv. Tegen vrouwen, gays, tegen alles wat niet hen is. 'Een uitzonderlijke prestatie,' oordeelt de jury.

Very excited to share my book Catastrophe Foretold will be published by @vikingbooks.bsky.social (UK) and Union Square (US)!! My book traces warnings before ten major disasters of the past century, and why so many went unheeded. Huge thanks to @mmagency.bsky.social & amazing @agentbal.bsky.social

So thrilled to announce CATASTROPHE FORETOLD by @nikki-ikani.bsky.social a genre-opening book about catastrophes from a world-leading expert in crisis warnings. It will be published in Spring 2028 by @vikingbooksuk.bsky.social and Union Square in the US. www.thebookseller.com/rights/vikin...

My team at Leiden University is looking for a new Assistant Professor in Intelligence and Security! We're a group of active researchers looking for a colleague passionate about research and teaching. @dvanp.bsky.social 📅 Deadline: 30 September Details: www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/vacancies...

Just published: My open access article in ISR. We've seen many "Intelligence failure" accusations recently, but binary framing obscures how warning systems actually fail. The new typology I propose enables a more comprehensive understanding of warning effectiveness. academic.oup.com/isr/article/...

How does the EU change its foreign policy course? My book "Crisis and Change in EU Foreign Policy" is out now in paperback. Eery timing as Europe is scrambling to respond to its biggest security challenge since WWII. manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9781526182586/ ‪@manchesterup.bsky.social‬

As a scholar of warning and learning from crises, I explore how actors anticipate crises, issue warnings, and adapt (or fail to adapt). Here I examine France’s ability to anticipate the rise of ISIS and the establishment of its so-called Caliphate: www.degruyter.com/document/doi...

🚨The edited volume "Contemporary Intelligence Warning Cases", edited by @drbemg.bsky.social and Stig Stenslie is out now via EUP @edinburghup.bsky.social 👉 edinburghuniversitypress.com/book-contemp... I had the privilege of contributing chapter 7: Mosul 2014 – The Rise of ISIS 👇

My colleagues wrote a piece in the European Journal of International Security arguing that OSINT presents an evolution rather than a revolution of traditional intelligence practices - and that it faces many of the same hurdles the latter faces. Read it here in open access 👉 doi.org/10.1017/eis....

I’m a scholar of crisis warning and response—exciting projects are coming in 2025! But for today, here are 9 reads that made my year. Though very different, what unites them is that they explore the underbellies of communities - and the love, violence and relationships that shape them.

📚 Paperback coming soon! As crises and war unfold on Europe’s doorstep, my book Crisis & Change unpacks how these events shape EU foreign policy, and offers a framework to understand the shifts. Pre-order manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9781526182586/ @manchesterup.bsky.social