I always went my own road and on my own legs where I had a mind to go. Conrad

It's mind-boggling how brief U.S. history is. Thomas Jefferson was born in 1743. When Abraham Lincoln was born, in 1809, Jefferson was President. Lincoln died in 1865 when Warren Harding was born. Harding died in 1923. Henry Kissinger was born in 1923 and died in 2023. 🤯

If the USA turns 250 years old on July 4th, 2026, then our constitution is a function of the nation. If it turned 236 years old on May 21, 2026, then our nation is a function of the constitution. July 4, 1776 = Dec of Ind May 21, 1790 = Rhode Island ratifies constitution

Who on earth is using AI to write? Write what? I've spent the last 28 years striving to become a writer. I'm talking about daily practice. Daily reading. Daily writing. It's only in the last 3-4 I've thought to myself, hey, I'm getting the hang of this. And I need another 28.

As long as Putin makes war to his west, he needs diplomatic success to his east. That's because Europe isn't Russia's strategic front. In the 21st century, Europe will be Russia's strategic rear.👇 👇 👇 @cnbc.com www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0...

A.I. is like, instead of Eisenhower, some dood from the private sector proposed the interstate network in the 1950s but couldn't tell you how much it would cost or where the roads would lead, only that it would change everything (and maybe put a lot of people out of work).

I'm so confused about writers who use AI "to write." What ever happened to plagiarism? There was a time copying others' work was considered an instant and irredeemable game over for any writer. I think this period was, very roughly, 3000 B.C. to, what? 2023 A.D.?

Checking in on MMT. Is it okay? It's late and I'm getting worried.

Dogs understand all the important things. 1) Who means well and who means harm. 2) Where the food is. 3) When the food comes. 4) How to get more food. 5) Fireplaces.

"Il n'y a qu'un problème philosophique vraiment sérieux : c'est le suicide." Albert Camus My dood... The problem is actually thinking about it in the first place. The best and happiest philosphy is needing none.

And here's the permanent link👇 youtu.be/FF6VnTb0Vdc?...

I'm reading up on "kill switches" in cars. No home owner would accept an automatic lock on their front door. But the outcome would be the same.

Ignore all the nonsense back and forth about talks, deals, talks about deals and deals about future talks. The U.S. has degraded Iran's hard power. www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMZU...

We are fighting and winning small battles today where we might fight and lose big battles tomorrow. I call it "hot deterrence" -- call it what you will -- and it is entirely healthy for the west. www.youtube.com/watch?v=79pG...

Francis Bacon remindeth us most verily always to love our language used, but ne'er thereof to simp. Dood absolutely adored his turns of phrase, perhaps too much.

Thinker, failer, bolder, wry.

"Project Hail Mary" feels like the movie adaptation of a book that was written in order to be adapted into the sort of movie that is adapted into a book based on a movie.

The war in Iran looks messy, to say the least. But imagine a counterfactual. On the same day, in 2022, Russia attacks Ukraine, Iran attacks Israel and China moves on Taiwan. www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXy_...

Western military analysts are very careful to distinguish between adversary and enemy. But if our adversaries blur that line, and do so as a core part of their strategy, what does it matter?

My writing is my mind; my mind, my writing. My thinking self is my only self.

We have invented a "center of the distribution" machine. It can tell you what the average is. The most average among the average things to think and say and do. The most likely next sample or event. The thing most often said or thought or done. What were the chances?

Here's a re-post for you because this image absolutely rocks.

I live in a wooden house, for shelter, surrounded by pines and oak, for air, and filled with paper, for knowledge and joy. I'm more or less a sub-function of trees.

It's hard to be intellectually assertive about one's suspicion that being intellectually assertive is largely, given the long historical record of unintended consequences, a mistake. People want the headline. The soundbite. The point.

Vincent van Gogh (1889)

Nobody on this good, green earth is "using AI to write". They are doing nothing. The statistics machine is "writing". Later, they pretend to have written what the AI wrote. The word for this is plagiarism.

This is a description of two nations: a small country attacked by a much larger neighbor, the ultimate goal of which is to erase that smaller country from the map. Both smaller countries happen to be democracies. Both aggressor countries are in an alliance. It is one war.

One must imagine the little fly brain we kind of uploaded into a weird digital world happy.

The tragedy of history is not that we occasionally resign ourselves to war. The tragedy of history is that we never truly resign ourselves to peace.

Doing the same thing and expecting a different result is neither madness nor sanity. Each confirming sample could make a repeat more likely. Or less. We don't know if any given system is in a stable or critical state.

Disinformation is perennial. In WW2, Germans were told Hitler never missed legs day. lol In reality, he was getting up at noon and stuffing cream cakes into his face. Then his doctor injected him with meth. Then he would ramble on about some BS. Then he'd nap.

An irony: sometimes autocratic logic forces autocrats into a more restricted decision space than their less autocratic counterparts. Being a dictator gives you more power but also fewer options.

It is one war www.euractiv.com/news/iran-ca...

There's been so much not winning enough that I am sick of not winning enough.

"Westerners in general, and Americans in particular, don’t like attacking first. We have a cultural allergy to first-mover status. In any Hollywood film, the good guy must be wronged; only thereafter does he wreak havoc. Same with our national history." www.barrons.com/articles/for...

The funny thing is, you probably couldn't get 12 people to agree - without a shadow of a doubt - that restricting jury trials is a good idea. So the proposition sort of fails its own test. #jurytrials

To be brave sometimes requires a little suffering. To be a coward always requires a lot.

In 2023, I described the wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East as one war. The Central War. Or, if you like, pre-WW3. The Israeli-American attack on Iran is the latest battle in that war. www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0...

Sometimes when I'm monitoring the situation I'm asked for my thoughts on monitoring the situation. This interrupts monitoring the situation.

So bored of anti-Semitism. It's bad writing from Season 1. We've since developed all the plots. And all the characters. And all the sets. Can we have some new toxic nonsense please? You know, just to mix it up.

Let's remember Eichmann's defense. "I was only following orders." He was referring to legal orders. Orders that were legal in Germany at the time. In order to refuse his part in the Holocaust, he would have had to break the law. And, what's more, he should have.

Morality is (hopefully) the basis for law. Law is (hopefully) not the basis for morality.

Already a plaid lord. Wondering whether to become a tweed lord. But already a plaid lord.

Current mood: slow and reverb.

Whatever the law says, citizens are free to break the law at any time. Legal ramifications for individuals are ex post. Whatever the law says, states are free to make war at any time. Security implications for nations are ex ante. Not endorsing this. Observing it. 👀

First mover guilt is better than second mover death. Not least because you can still move.

I never understood people who made ideology their entire personality. Especially not the "bristly" ones, the "don't tell me what to do" variety. You know, Che Guevara, yellow snake flags, etc. If you don't enjoy being told what to do, why do you enjoy being told how to think?

It's all very simple. In a democracy, the people decide the fate of a leader they remove at will. In an autocracy, the leader decides the fate of the people he removes at will.

Discussing the economics of trade and war on BBC World just now. linkedin.com/feed/update/...

My name is Maximus Decimus Meridius, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions, loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son, husband to a murdered wife. And I will monitor the situation, in this life or the next.