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Hello Wisconsin: Latest Turkey Bowl Between Packers and Lions Promises to be a Thanksgiving Feast The 7-3-1 Green Bay Packers against the 7-4 Detroit Lions. What more could you ask for out of a Thanksgiving Day matchup? Okay, I suppose I could ask that the Packers not play at all – it tends to make the holiday much more stressful than it needs to be. But if you like seeing good football on national broadcasts, this is certainly a matchup that has plenty to offer. The big story coming into the game, of course, is going to be how the Lions will respond after the Packers thoroughly dismantled them in week one. The final score of that game ended up making the game look far closer than it was in reality – and even then, the score was not close. The Packers delivered a physical beatdown the likes of which we had not seen this team deliver in years, and introduced a defense that has continued a mostly strong level of play throughout the season. Coming out of a steamrolling of the Vikings’ offense, the defense is a unit that continues to play with a great deal of confidence. And while the Lions’ offense is far more potent than any unit featuring JJ McCarthy, the Packers’ defense also has the added confidence in knowing they shut this team down once already this season. But everything changes when you go on the road. The Packers have had plenty of road struggles under Matt LaFleur, and especially when going on the road against good teams. It’s going to be an uphill battle, even if the Packers are coming into the game with some momentum behind them for the first time in a while. As far as I’m concerned, here are the things that need to happen for the Packers to be the ones munching on turkey legs in the postgame: * First drive touchdown: The Packers have been coming out flat far too much this season. The first drive touchdown the team scored against the Vikings really helped set the tone for the game. The team plays so much looser with a lead, and they need that on the road in what’s going to be a tough, tense game. * Pass rush: The Packers dominated the Lions in week one in large part due to the effectiveness of the pass rush throughout the game. The Packers need to be able to consistently rush the passer once again to turn Jared Goff into Jared Goof once more. Do not let Goff get comfortable, or he can make you pay with some of those receiver’s he’s got. * Abandon the conservative playcalling: Insanely conservative playcalling is one thing against the Vikings, who are quarterbacked by a meme, and the Giants, who have no coach (and are also quarterbacked by a meme). The Packers absolutely MUST keep the pressure on the Lions, and this means that, as much as Matt LaFleur apparently hates doing so, the Packers must throw the ball and do so with efficiency. Stop the predictable playcalling and dial some things up to get guys running open to get chunk plays. This team is built for exactly that! Get the Lions to abandon the run as soon as possible so that they’re forced to play catch up against a pass rush that feasts. While there are certainly other ingredients to victory, these, to me, are the three most important of them. Wisconsin Beer of the Week I’m the kind of person who will try just about anything, especially when it’s from a brewery I like. I really like Oso Brewing a lot. However, my most recent try was a rare miss. I love cherries. I love cheesecake. I love cherry cheesecake. However, it turns out I apparently don’t really love those flavors in sour beer form. Oso’s Cherry Cheesecake Sour was a promising idea, but apparently just wasn’t for me. At 6 percent ABV, this pastry sour ale features cherries, lactose (to give some smoothness and creaminess to the feel), vanilla bean (helping to create the cheesecake flavor) and other flavors. A sip or two was fine, but a whole beer’s worth was just a bit too much for me. I do like pastry sours, though there are some that tend to fall on the “too sweet” side for me, and this was one. Now, that being said, there are lots of other really great Oso beers that I hope you’ll consider trying. One of my personal favorites is NIght Rain, an oatmeal porter that has a great balance of roasty maltiness and drinkability that makes it great for this time of year and throughout the winter. So, glad I was able to try something new, but I think this ended up just being a little outside of my wheelhouse. Some good teams will be left out of the playoffs in the NFC It’s kind of crazy how many teams are still in the hunt in the NFC right now. There are six teams in the NFC North and West alone that currently have at least seven wins, meaning at minimum one of them will not make the playoffs. These teams are: Chicago Bears, 8-3 Green Bay Packers, 7-3-1 Detroit Lions, 7-4 Los Angeles Rams, 9-2 Seattle Seahawks, 8-3 San Francisco 49ers, 8-4 With only six games left for most of these teams, there’s not a lot of wiggle room considering how close these battles are. For the Lions, a loss against the Packers could be absolutely catastrophic to their playoff chances, as it would put them on the bottom of this list in the win/loss column and would give the Packers a permanent tiebreaker in the division. For the Packers, a loss to the Lions would be a significant setback and would prevent them from being able to control their own playoff destiny. The Bears have the lead in the division, but they also are relatively untested and have a first-year head coach and a second-year quarterback still finding his way. They play a game against San Francisco late in the season that could well have a significant impact on the playoff race. That’s not to mention the two games they still have against Green Bay, their date with the Eagles, and their season-closer against Detroit. They’ve got a very tough road ahead. The Rams currently look like the best team in football, and they also have one of the more favorable schedules of the teams listed above. They’ve got winnable road trips to Arizona, Carolina, and Atlanta. They’ve got tough contests against Detroit at home and Seattle on the road that will also end up helping to shape this playoff picture. But Seattle hasn’t been going away, and San Francisco, despite its injury issues throughout the season, is still very much in the thick of it. The Seahawks and 49ers play each other in the final week of the season, and the paths they take to get to that point could mean that game could end up being a play-in game. With a month and a half left of the regular season, there’s still a lot to figure out in the NFC, and that’s not even considering what’s going to happen in two other divisions. This makes it critical that the Packers finally begin to gel; their schedule is one of the toughest remaining, and with so many other teams crowding the playoff picture, they can barely afford to slip up. Those losses to the Panthers and Browns are really looking crucial at the moment. A win today would give the Packers a 94% chance to make the playoffs and a 72% chance to win the division. The stakes are high. Time to execute. Around the NFC North As always, it’s time to go around the NFC North. * The CHICAGO BEARS are an incomprehensible 8-3 and look destined for a playoff spot in Ben Johnson’s first year. While the team will likely be exposed against stronger competition, it’s hard to understate exactly what this coaching staff has accomplished in its first year with many of the same pieces the team had a year ago. Also, is this about to be the first time ever that the Packers don’t play the Bears until DECEMBER? Crazy. * The DETROIT LIONS need this game on Thanksgiving Day, and they need it badly. They’re looking up at two other teams in the division and are already down a game to Green Bay; another loss would give the Packers a permanent tiebreaker over them and prevent the Lions from being able to control their own destiny for the remainder of the season. This team just hasn’t quite had the same juice this year; while they’ve shown flashes here and there, this isn’t the juggernaut that we saw nearly make the Super Bowl. * The MINNESOTA VIKINGS do not have an NFL caliber quarterback in #9. Already, JJ McCarthy is off to a worse start statistically than noted draft bust Christian Ponder. He’s throwing some of the worst passes you’ll see out of a quarterback at this level. Every time he takes the field, the chances of victory for his team plummet. At this point, with the playoffs being likely out of reach, the Vikings just need to finish their assessment of whether he’s salvageable (hint: it sure doesn’t look like it) before going back to the drawing board. Mr. Backes’s “This or That” Every day I put a different “this or that” poll up on my whiteboard and have students leave tallies throughout the day. I then compile this information and post it here for laughs. Here’s what we’ve seen over the last week: * Packers win defeated Lions win * Card games defeated board games * “Cooked” defeated “cooking” (Gen Z slang here, if you know you know) * Musicals defeated plays Advanced stats continually place Jordan Love among the league’s finest quarterbacks Each week @sfdata9ers on Twitter puts out a lot of really great content that is not always just related to the 49ers. This particular table below is going to be one of interest to Packer fans. It’s one that creates composite QB rankings based on a variety of advanced metrics: Total QBR, EPA/Play, CPOE, % Bad Throws, % PRS to Sack, and Air Yards Per Reception. The one category that slightly drags Love down is Air Yards Per Reception, where he ranks 15th in the league. But he is far and away the best in the league when it comes to Expected Points Added per Play, and scores very highly in the other areas as well, giving him fourth overall in those composite QB rankings (behind Sam Darnold, Dak Prescott, and Matt Stafford, all of whom are having outstanding statistical seasons). Love continues to show over and over again that he is a difference maker, and that the national coverage of him has yet to catch up to the actual quality of his performance. This happened with Aaron Rodgers early in his career as well; it wasn’t until really the Falcons game in the playoffs that the national conversation started to catch up to what Packer fans already knew about him as a player, and then several weeks later he won a Super Bowl that gave him permanent respect in the eyes of the national media. Certainly, winning a Super Bowl would help cement Love among the game’s elites, at least among those who don’t watch him play every week. But for those who actually do follow him closely, his abilities are already clear. Love has taken another significant step forward this season and has been one of the game’s best players at the position. He’s been undeniably better this season than many of the guys who had previously been ranked (nearly unanimously) over him. With more high-profile wins will come the recognition. But the ability is now clearly there. Week 13 NFL Picks This is a really tough one for me to pick. On the one hand, the Lions have the homefield advantage, the Thanksgiving Day hype, and the deep desire to get revenge after an opening day drubbing that left them humiliated and staring up at the Packers in the standings for most of the season. Plus, the Packers came out on top of the Lions the last time they met on Thanksgiving in 2023 (NEVER FORGET JORDAN LOVE BEING STIFFED A TURKEY LEG!!!). The Packers are also missing their top corner, Keisean Nixon, and it doesn’t look great for him in terms of his ability to play this week. However, the Lions are nursing some tough injuries themselves, especially on the offensive line and with Kerby Joseph, their safety. The Packers seem to have been doing better along the offensive front of late, and are coming out of a relatively easy win against a divisional opponent, while the Lions were pushed into overtime by a bad Giants team a week after getting suffocated by an Eagles team that has looked anything other than the part of defending champs recently. If the Packers can get off to a strong start, I like them in this game. They can play a wide variety of offensive styles and their pass rush tends to let loose with a lead. I may be a fool, but I’m going with the Packers. And if they come out victorious, it may be a sign that this team is back in contention. Packers 27, Lions 23 The whole slate: PACKERS over Lions CHIEFS over Cowboys RAVENS over Bengals EAGLES over Bears DOLPHINS over Saints COLTS over Texans FALCONS over Jets 49ERS over Browns RAMS over Panthers JAGUARS over Titans BUCS over Cardinals SEAHAWKS over Vikings BILLS over Steelers CHARGERS over Raiders BRONCOS over Commanders PATRIOTS over Giants Happy Thanksgiving to all! From me and mine to you and yours, have a happy Thanksgiving and a great start to your holiday season! Thank you all for reading this column each week and for the kind words many of you often have to say about it. Appreciate you all. Go Pack Go! Filed Under: FeaturedTim BackesHello Wisconsin PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE. __________________________ Tim Backes is a lifelong Packer fan and a contributor to CheeseheadTV. Follow him on Twitter @timbackes for his Packer takes, random musings and Untappd beer check-ins. __________________________ Tags: Wisconsin Beer of the WeekAround the NFC NorthChicago BearsDetroit LionsMinnesota VikingsNFL picksMr. Backes's This or ThatMicah ParsonsJordan LovePlayoffsplayoff pictureNFC playoff pictureNFC NorthNFC WestThanksgiving Like 0 points http://dlvr.it/TPVdfs