SpaceX self valuation is based on building data centers in space. When a new processor appears running 3 times as fast as the old one, data centers change the processor, perhaps the mainboard, keep memory and disks and, well, the whole data center, and go on. If you are in space, all that is lost.

As we are near the end of the month, when oil futures expire, the "price of oil" might not register the full impact of any real Hormuz opening. On Friday the futures have to match the real over-the-counter price, and that's unlikely to change that much, as any extra oil will be weeks into coming.

Well, it seems like a deal is near, at least now the Iranians are participating in the headlines. Each party are publishing their own version of the deal, which would be useless if a document is going to be published. Oil weekend futures at $90, US weekend futures up 1%. Hopefully this ends here.

If reports are accurate (a big if), US and Iran are near an agreement to search for an agreement. A longer ceasefire with gradual opening of Hormuz is sign-able, solving nothing. Iran will not renounce to Hormuz control, probably not to nuclear either, so the only route forward is paved with TACOs.

Meanwhile, another day of war, another day with the Hormuz blocked. Iran seems to be letting some ships through, but make no mistake, they know high price of oil is their best card in these negotiations. The US knows it too, and is selling its oil reserves to keep it down. Time still on Iran's side.

For anybody thinking about keeping SpaceX stock after the first days, have a look at Rivian's chart. Rivian went public when the EVs were all the rage, like the semis today. Everything passes, there is a new rage and then investors ask about financial performance, and you get a chart like that.

The supposed deal was again just hot air (did I say again?). Second time they fool me, so blame on me. Now the talk is about resuming bombing. That's likely also just the weekend narrative, when markets are closed, to pressure Iran. It'll change Tuesday on open to more deals, visits, talks...

We are toys in the infosphere. Have you noticed how all news end when the markets close? Also, oil was steep down when the Iranian headlines started. Even if the Iranian were saying that no deal was near ??? I think operators were convinced that there would be a "however" later on. Hopium is strong.

The 12th of June is the supposed date for the SpaceX IPO. The BofA contrarian indicator is calling a sell signal. I bet the IPO wins, and we won't have any meaningful correction in these three weeks. It's a lot of money in play. Remember, big IPOs are always a success, at least up to the first day.

Setups for today: No setups, until this Iran situation isn't resolved, all setups are at the mercy of random headlines. If the stock markets were very depressed, the upside on good news could be played. But as they are just the contrary, there is nothing there to play.

Euro stocks up on expectations of some Iran deal. Signs are now better than in previous occasions. Iran is using softer words, and notice of 35 ships crossing the strait (under Iranian supervision) yesterday. The wording of the deal will be important, but anything that frees the strait will be good.

Habemus deal! Or not, for a signed agreement, the wait of some hours to reveal the details is strange. Except if they are waiting for the markets to be closed, of course. In any case, it appears to allow for some more traffic in Hormuz, so the oil catastrophe will become just the oil drama.

SpaceX wants your money. It's valued (by itself) at $1.78t. The last similar IPO was Saudi Aramco, 2019. Numbers(#$B): Revenue : SA 332 - SX 18,6, Net income: SA 88, SX -4,9 (yup, minus, not a typo). But they will do it, and it will jump up, and be indexed, and you'll buy it when you buy the Nasdaq.

Markets react down to Iran's leader reiterating the same things they have been saying all the time. But the market bias is clear: fake nice headlines, pump up; Iran reality check, back down, but crucially, not so much as they went up. That's stock markets, bond markets are a bit more pessimistic.

If the Axios-leaked US proposal to Iran, is true, it would be "ending the war now, giving 30 days to make a deal on Hormuz and nuclear". That is nice sounding but it's just keeping the ceasefire on for 30 more days. So, whether Iran accepts it or no, the situation remains exactly the same.

OpenAI to be the first of the three. It's preparing an immediate IPO, in a few weeks. Expect the other two, Anthropic and SpaceX to follow. So it will be difficult for the market to correct, because this kind of things need a frothy market to push all the paper. Even crisis will be ignored, again.

Part of today's oil price fall is due to the the EIA reporting a massive draw of 7.9 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories. Market thought 2.6 or so. That signals to the oil operators that the US is willing to use its reserves like there is no tomorrow, to keep the oil price lower.

OK, there was more. Still, again, just talk. The reality is the same, either Iran renounces to the strait and to nuclear, or the US grants them. Both seem now very difficult.

Really, if this is all, the market's reaction seems quite disproportionate. That's basically nothing but yet another proposal. There is no inkling of positions getting nearer. Either there is more (notice that the operators knew from the opening of the euro session), or it will have to revert.

One minute. I had to wait just one minute more...

Crickets... crickets... No happy headline on market open. I close my bets, as oil and everything else seem to be back on their trends. If there was a leak it has been false. Perhaps it was just the usual vanilla futures manipulation. Well, back to the grind.

Strange behaviour of oil, gas and euro stocks. I smell a powerful barrage of headlines in the morning. I'll even bet on it.

Euro stocks flat, US futures green. Rotation's return. Oil and bonds haven't go nowhere, but now the market is thinking only about NVIDIA results. Comic, but true. Or at least they are pretending to do, as results and expectations are rather well known. I expect a choppy day with not much direction.

7300 in the SP is a strong 0DTE support. I wouldn't expect it to be broken on close, but if it is, that means things are getting really hairy. There is precious little gamma under that level, and price might fall into a void. Tomorrow they will ad some gamma there, but today things could break.

Not to forget the heavy selling pressure that would be automatically triggered in case the market goes down a couple of percent points more. Suspicious (better called unprecedented) behavior of the VIX may have to do with attempts to keep the volatility control funds away from the sell button.

Bonds crashing for unexplained reasons, aside from the usual. Stocks cannot hold that wave, if it's not corrected. 10y T-bond now at 4.66% yield. As said before, bonds with high yields are not just a warning, they are in themselves a problem. Be very very wary.

In the wee hours of the morning, oil always retreat a bit and stock futures rise a bit, anticipating the possibility of hopeful headlines. You don't want to get caught too long oil on another Iranian proposal, Pakistani hopefulness or impromptu tweet. Of course, if nothing comes all will be back.

Euro stocks quite green on... oil up, bonds flat but tens, and US futures red? Not a good combo, but still... I'll keep thinking it's rotation to "less bad" stocks, as the big blob of money searching alpha is so big that cannot simply go away. I'm learning to stop worrying and love the rotation.

Due to causes beyond management control, Armageddon has been postponed. Between so much cross talk, we poor investors have to try to grab the facts. Facts keep being: 1) No escalation likely because Iran will retaliate. 2) Iran and US want Hormuz and nuclear (in talks), compromise seems far away.

Today, Euro stocks were stronger than US. As I noticed previously, this market doesn't do selling, only rotations, so perhaps the money is rotating from the US to the more PE friendly land of the Euro. The problem, as with the rotation to the mid-caps before, is capacity. Too much money to rotate.

It was. Fake news, apparently. Oil is furiously recovering all lost ground, hitting itself on the head for having believed the usual suspects once again. Fool me seventeen times...

You have to admire the coordination and timing of the leaks and news, always on the opening hours of the stock market. When they hit, there is always a question for them: Does Iran renounce to Hormuz control and nuclear? Does the US? This last "leak" seems to say Iran blinks on nuclear. Fake news?

The trip to China has given a respite to the marketing guys whose job is to imagine the morning nice headlines, and they came up with the last one, about US lifting temporarily the oil sanctions on Iran. Mark it, without lifting the blockade, so a meaningless thing, but enough to move the markets.

Lots of social media buzz betting on escalation in Iran. It's, of course, possible. After all, if all you have are strike groups, all problems seem to be solved by striking. However, that would allow the basest clouds to ride over the stock market, and we all know that's a no-no. So I bet on stasis.

Euro stocks only slightly red, on oil and bonds both moderating, and above all on the return of hopeful headlines. The Pakistanis are back sending proposals from Iran, which has no problem sending every day the same proposal as long as that gives them more time of ceasefire.

I might have misrepresented the situation with bonds, saying that they are red flags. Partly they are, such bonds yields signal problems. But more than that, they are *themselves* the problem, when they reach those prices, because they break bond holders' balances, read banks, pension funds...

Asian session not so bad, despite bonds and oil. Bonds keep looking lower for a price. Oil same, but looking higher. The Hormuz blockade holds and I think that the idea that it can remain like that for a long time, it's starting to percolate in the investor's mind. If that happens, all bets are off.

War situation keeps the same. US is anxious to end it but Iran is more comfortable. After all, they live there, not wanting to go anywhere. Blockade can make Iran uncomfortable, but it'll take time and no holes. And it's risky. Some day China might send a tanker to fill up, and that will be a bind.

Red flags for the stock market are everywhere. Bonds are flashing red, crossing levels they shouldn't. Shiller is screaming, reaching ATH levels bar dotcom. Breadth is whimpering, with McClellan oscillator at -125 (yup, minus, not a typo). An oil shock is advancing slow as a glacier and as sure.

Another weekend of war, another weekend with the Hormuz strait blocked. It's getting warmer in the Northern hemisphere, good for natural gas, lower consumption, bad for gasoline as people drive more. We keep sleepwalking to energy catastrophe, with no obvious exit in sight. Oil prices slowly rising.

I wonder why I keep thanking Claude when it correctly finishes a task. I guess you cannot talk to something that answers back, and not be polite.

Has the semiconductors rally ended? Friday witnessed a correction, and the SOX was Mississippi-bubble-levels overbought, which is something. However this market does not do selling, it does rotations, and money entered the downcast software sector. Will that be the next momentum? I'd say unlikely.

VIX was relatively subdued yesterday, keeping below 20. Whether it's an artificial effort not to poke volatility control funds into selling yet, or is simply a bet that the market is going to trade sideways from here, it's anybody's guess. Perhaps both.

The SP dedicated all its efforts to save the 7400, where a lot of 0DTE gamma was. Monday, they will have moved it, I suppose lower. But be advised, automatic selling will be triggered rather strongly on any further downside, as automatic players are almost fully long. Some cover is not a bad idea.

There were no happy headlines today. Of course that's the new normal, but the rest of the week they weren't really needed, as the markets (bar bonds) kept thinking that the roads to the future were paved with candy. But today they were nervous, and no words of talks. This weekend could be worrisome.

Today you can buy a bond that will give you 4.6% yield for 10 years. Will you get that from a SP share? At these valuations, returns are historically, very low, near 0. Of course nobody will hold the SP share for 10 years, that's ridiculous. And that's part of the problem, of course.

Money markets begin to discount a rate hike by the end of this year. Money markets are being disingenuous. The inflation rate has been above 2% for 3 years now, and the last Fed movement was a rate CUT. They know they place is to fund the government, inflation is needed to reduce debt, so no hikes.

Bonds are crashing, and there is no proper narrative around it. Inflation fears? High oil can be said as soon to lead to recession, and that is positive for bonds. New Fed chair? Perhaps a bit. Humongous debt? Hardly news. Japanese rates hike? Perhaps we are getting hotter there.

Today is Friday, and all markets are quite red, so I would expect nice headlines like from a machine-gun. However, these last days have been a disappointment in that direction, so perhaps the time for that is passed. Any news from Axios of late? It's like there is no war anymore.

The situation in the Iran war is evolving in interesting ways. Seeing the proved incapacity of the US to get anywhere in a negotiated solution, other countries are stepping in with quiet negotiations to allow safe passage of their ships. Iran diplomacy is now getting centrifugal! (pun intended).