This whole madness of the Iran situation breaks all systems for us trend-follower speculators. All trends are broken, or can be at the next headline. Now, I would say that the only "safe" trend would be energy stocks. If the oil price keeps up, they will rise. If not, well, the data centers remain.

The supposed Iranian "secret" offer... I call shenanigans. When some days from now nothing else is known about that offer, we'll think that the idea runs contrary to all we know of the newly chosen leaders of the country, or the military, and that it was floated just on rebound day. I think it now.

Today, speaking of Euro sectors, the only one red is... oil and gas. That matches perfectly with a narrative of oil not going to be so affected, either because the conflict won't last or because the consequences for oil won't be so dire. I think both ideas are likely wrong, only time will tell.

Situation summary: We in the first stages of a black swan. Things will usually get worse before they get better. Oil is the key, Hormuz the lock. Iran can keep Hormuz blocked as long as they want, don't let anybody tell you different. It's in their interest to wait for higher oil to negotiate.

Bitcoin very strong these days. Perhaps it's recovering a bit of its safe harbor status, or at least of its portable status. Me, I would prefer stablecoins if I had to leave the Middle East in a hurry and I wanted portability, but that's just me.

Euro stocks solidly green on relief rally. The relief rally began with not much enthusiasm, so it had to be helped by manufactured headlines about Iran wanting to talk (they are probably talking the whole time) Likelihood of dovish comments from the US during the morning are high. It's rebound time.

If oil holds being moderate, and nothing big happens tonight (well, really the same thing), likelihood is high of an Euro and Japanese relief rally, as they had been very hardly hit. That will likely drag US futures. Of course those are big "ifs", so you better keep your bets moderate.

Oil prices keep really moderate, so lacking more insights, I conclude that the oil operators feel that there are enough workarounds for oil to flow again (Red Sea, Arabian Sea pipelines). Or perhaps is just that the stash of hopium is not completely finished. It's helping the SP hold 6800 anyway.

US market seems poised to open below the 6800 support, even below the 6780 support. But of course not too far away, because one thing is ask for a repeat of yesterday's buy-the-dip, and another to make it a buy-the-abyss. So there is all this drama about if they will they won't close above support.

I tend to disregard all the posts about "the previous times that this happened..." because, first, I don't care if 6 months from now we'll be up 1%, if in the meantime there was a drop of 30%. No, thanks. And second, because there are never two equal situations, we never bath in the same river.

German DAX now more than 4% down. Total correction since Friday is 6.5%. Meanwhile the SP (futures) is down barely 2%, because reasons. The DAX didn't have a mighty range to protect, apparently. Oil, you ask? what do you know, it touched $76, but still discounting a not-so-long Hormuz disruption.

Euro stocks, and Asian stocks, haemoglobin red on oil and gas possible shortages if the Hormuz strait keeps closed. US futures partially following the carnage, but stopping like always at their sacred levels. Will there be another rebound from the support, as forever and ever? It better be, or else.

WTI oil has briefly touched the $75 level, surpassing the Monday opening level. Oil had corrected during Monday based on a strange conviction that bad things cannot happen, and this thing "can't last". I have no idea when it will end, it might be tomorrow, but certainly can last.

And the SP futures are back to where they were yesterday at the opening. Ready for another high-tech based rebound, I suppose, as apparently nothing can ever break the range. Even oil is up, for some unknown reason. I don't know what they were smoking yesterday, really, but I would like some.

Nikkei closes down 3%. In two days, it has lost more than 5%. German DAX closed yesterday 2.4% red, today futures point to another red day. Meanwhile the US markets were flat today, although the futures are now deep in the red. Yesterday's rebound from the red, still unexplained by any news or data.

Oil remained in a muted upside, far from the initial estimates. That helped quiet the minds, at least in the US markets. The prevailing idea seems to be that the blocking of Hormuz won't last. Of course, only time can tell that. Sadam Hussein also invaded Iran, thinking it would be short work.

While we wait for the cash market to open, I would like to share a rogue theory of mine, namely that on occasions like this, if the black (or white in this case) swan lasts a bit, the market mind follows the same five stages of grief than a regular human. 1/6

Now, levels. 0DTE's moved support at 6700, but 6800 keeps having the range-bottom mojo. Not quite, 6789 is my favorite level for that. For the CTA's according to updated calculations, it's 6772 as next selling point for SP. Today these four levels will tell us much about the strength of the market.

BofA's Mr.Hartnett marked two levels to watch, $42 in #$SRLN, and $52 in #$XLF. These were marked on Wednesday, Friday both closed under the levels, although not by much, you cannot speak of a break yet. However, if today is bad for these two ETFs... you ignore Mr.Hartnett at your own peril.

Futures recovering on big hopium dose about some TACO before cash opening. Also due to the first tenet of the market mind "nothing ever really happens", so this has to be short lived, buy the dip. Bonds flat, not shooting up, but of course, if there's something that higher oil is, is inflationary.

Excuses are very important for the market. For example, if now the SP range was broken to the downside, using the Iran war as excuse, the investors could think "The trend is up, the trend is always up long term, but due to Iran it's a rough path, things will improve when the Iran war finishes".

This situations act as a big tree in front of you. It won't let you see the woods. Don't forget the trees behind, named "AI fears", "CAPEX fears", "tariffs uncertainty", "private credit doubts", "automatic selling triggering", "forced deleverage" and "reverse carry trade", to name just the sequoias.

Euro stocks deep in the red, all sectors red except, you guessed it, oil and gas. US futures redder than weekend futures implied, oil less upside than implied. That "moderation" of oil, whatever its reason, can be a stepping stone for the market to find some support.

Everybody is waiting for a serving of TACO today, as the US administration has famously low tolerance to the red color in the markets, or deep green in oil. However, the key of the question this time is that we will need some Iranian chicken serving too, and that may be tougher to get.

The futures now are deeply red, but nothing crash-like. Oil, the main gauge, is "just" 8% up from Friday, nothing like 15%. That may mean anything. From the point of view of Iran, I think, oil prices are the key to an exit from the situation, so they will probably wait to see it over $100.

The buy-all-dips crowd had their three pillars: 1) nothing ever really happens 2) if it happens, the Fed will print to bury it 3) AI is going to be the bomb. Well, 3) was attacked long ago, then 2) started to crumble too. This week will tell if 1) is broken too. That could spell disaster.

Oil weekend futures deciding that no relief is at hand before the opening of the markets, are now 15% up from the regular market close on Friday. As the oil price will go, so will the risky assets, well, the other way around. World economy can hardly afford to take a hefty inflation dose just now.

Bitcoin, after having made a short-catching expedition to higher altitudes, seems to have paused, realized that Monday is going to be hard on every risk asset, and rediscovered its inner bear. After all, Bitcoin's downslde predates the Iran attack by months.

As the opening of the futures market approach, the Hormuz strait remains closed, and no "mission accomplished" banner is raised, weekend markets go back to their nervousness. The nervousness will be increased as time (days) goes by with the Hormuz strait closed...

Rule of thumb for Monday opening: The stock market will correct if oil spikes. Oil will spike if the Hormuz strait keeps closed. Headlines that increase or reduce the likelihood of the opening of the strait are the ones to pay attention to. For the moment the closing would seem to remain.

The market is already playing the TACO option, as oil is falling a bit and Bitcoin and US stock futures recovering (from -1.2% to -0.6% now). The possible decapitation of the regime certainly opens the doors to a "mission accomplished" headline even before Monday.

Bitcoin in unexplained recovery. Tracing the movements of Bitcoin is a fool's errand, so I will try and do it. The low volume of the weekend may be used to pump it up, as the red lines of Bitcoin are more existential than the ones of the SP or Nasdaq. At some point, Bitcoin disappears.

Iran has closed the Hormuz strait, to little reaction till now from the oil futures. Perhaps they had it already discounted, but I doubt it. OPEC announced more oil production, but most OPEC countries already at max. Not Saudi oil, but most of that should have to go through... you guessed it.

I asked several AI bots "what price can the barrel of oil reach if the Ormuz strait is blocked?" The answers are all over the place, depending on how long, but seem to gravitate towards $90 if the disruption is short, $150 is it's long. I don't know if the studies are actual and take into account...

We should take note of the fact that these geopolitical movements (attack to Iran) are now timed to damage the markets as little as possible. There was a time when military considerations would rule. No longer. That makes me think that some market-related damage control will be done before Monday.

Attack on Iran started. Interesting that is touted as Israel only. Two questions now for the markets: will the mission accomplished be sung before Monday, and will Iran close the Ormuz strait.

OpenAI accepting the Pentagon contract reveals, at the same time, their desperation to stay viable and their impossibility to do so in the end. The switch from Anthropic to OpenAI reveals that any AI bot is replaceable by another AI bot. So OpenAI has no competitive advantage against Google et al.

Bonds didn't have the same timidity going up, as the SP going down. The size of today's movement, about 1.5%, is major in bond-land, think a 4% or more in the SP. And breaking a huge resistance. Something is clearly afoot. If it's just the Iran thing or something else will become clearer in time.

During today's session, a strong reluctance to drop could be noticed in the US market. The structure was strange too, down day but the Nasdaq AND the mid caps holding the SP up. Perhaps they desperately wanted to have some points cushion to the 6800 red line, in case of Monday open at war with Iran.

Bitcoin back down from its attempt to breakout. Resulting figure very bearish. Particularly if we notice that today it was monthly Bitcoin OPEX, and from that moment (9 a.m. CET), it's going down again. That would make the upside look suspicious, if I ever thought that markets were manipulated.

Brainy opinions about US tariffs future situation are coalescing on "not so much as before", and "not for long" and "probably illegal too anyway". That will in time provide a boost to US retailers and general economy, but also to emerging markets. Both are already a bit overbought, regrettably.

I believe this weekend could see the attack to Iran. The US Administration has painted itself into a corner there. I think that, from their comfortable western lives they couldn't imagine that the Iran dictator really *wants* an attack. Now they have to walk the walk, after having talked the talk.

Euro stocks slightly up, defensives leading. US futures a bit down for the moment. Headline of the day is the 10Y bond breaking the 4% yield resistance, apparently without effort. That's as worrying as worrying gets, what are the bonds seeing that the rest of the world doesn't?

The US market keeps mocking all investors, thumbing its nose to bears and bull alike. Only the day traders survive, and only if they follow the rules of the range. Today it's the middle of the range, so it's a coin toss. It's Friday, so end of session wariness about possible weekend Iran attack too.

10Y bond toying with the important level of 4% yield. Bonds very strong on... well, we must conclude is about a cooling economy and so lower inflation and rates. Whether they are seeing a recession will be clearer if and when they manage to break that 4% level.

Mr. Hartnett from BofA provided us with an important number: 26. Thats the number of dollars that go the the US equity funds, from every 100 that entered globally. It was 92 in 2022. I think that's a lot of fuel lacking, and it certainly shows in the performance of the US market.

Reuters reports that TSLA hasn't even started the bureaucratic procedure to get a permit for autonomous driving in California. Someday Tesla investors will have to ask themselves how long the fantasy can last, on a diet of lean promises. Ah, and I just saw a video of a Boston Dynamics robot dancing.

Today the market seems to have come back to its narrative. Nasdaq underperforming SP, that underperforms mid and small caps. Bitcoin also down. Only the SaaS stocks are still in the short squeeze phase and are not back to its downward narrative. This cannot last however, or the range will be broken.

US macro data is pointing to deceleration. Could it reach recession? For the moment not a lot of things point to that. Could the tax refunds serve as fuel? They might, but some (many?) will end up reducing consumer debt holes. Look at the PMI and ISM data, they have a good predictive track record.

Euro stocks flat to slightly green, on NVIDIA being a non-issue. Sectors again a haphazard business with no clear leaders two days in a row. Market is confused, we could say, with different narratives competing and contradicting themselves. A good correction is needed to clarify concepts, but nope.